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Post by JangoB on Apr 28, 2021 12:48:48 GMT
Judging by what's winning in the last few years, we'll probably have a film that feels topical. So things that don't fit that bill (like Macbeth or WSS), probably won't win it. Yeah, the thing that gives me pause about my own predictions is that I don't see much zeitgeist-y or message-y stuff there. Maybe that contender isn't even on the map as of now.
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 28, 2021 13:29:35 GMT
It's very possible next BP winner isn't on this list at all.
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Post by Miles Morales on Apr 28, 2021 13:40:40 GMT
It's very possible next BP winner isn't on this list at all. Definitely possible. Like, who honestly expected Parasite, out of all films, to win Best Picture at the beginning of 2019? Or Sound of Metal to even get a single Oscar nomination, much less six (including BP)?
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 28, 2021 15:31:21 GMT
Judging by what's winning in the last few years, we'll probably have a film that feels topical. So things that don't fit that bill (like Macbeth or WSS), probably won't win it. Absolutely. Don't Look Up is topical though, about environmental issues and is both high concept star studded (which can only be in its favor after the criticism of how "small" this year's Oscar films were), from a director that's only rising in "prestige". Maybe 3rd time is the charm for McKay? But it could very well be a movie that's not on the map. I just think environmental issues feels like the topic the Academy might embrace now.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 28, 2021 17:12:51 GMT
Absolutely. Don't Look Up is topical though, about environmental issues and is both high concept star studded (which can only be in its favor after the criticism of how "small" this year's Oscar films were), from a director that's only rising in "prestige". Maybe 3rd time is the charm for McKay? But it could very well be a movie that's not on the map. I just think environmental issues feels like the topic the Academy might embrace now. Yeah, Don't Look Up is topical, but it almost plays like a straight comedy at times so that might work against it. And another factor against it might be that Vice did so well at the Oscars despite its mixed reviews, which could mean critics will have their knives out for this one. But if it gets good reviews, this should be Netflix's top priority. On paper, it is their prestige play of the year.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 28, 2021 19:26:53 GMT
doubt there'll be room for two musical adaptations and if only one gets the slot, I'd bet on In the Heights over West Side Story.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 28, 2021 23:40:07 GMT
doubt there'll be room for two musical adaptations and if only one gets the slot, I'd bet on In the Heights over West Side Story. With little else to go on, you're betting on a June release over a December release, and Jon M. Chu over Spielberg??
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Apr 29, 2021 0:01:16 GMT
doubt there'll be room for two musical adaptations and if only one gets the slot, I'd bet on In the Heights over West Side Story. With little else to go on, you're betting on a June release over a December release, and Jon M. Chu over Spielberg?? I don't know that I'd doubt a director based on their previous output, since the most nominated movie of last year was a Todd Phillips movie.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 29, 2021 0:27:16 GMT
With little else to go on, you're betting on a June release over a December release, and Jon M. Chu over Spielberg?? I don't know that I'd doubt a director based on their previous output, since the most nominated movie of last year was a Todd Phillips movie. True, but it's pretty much all we have to go off of right now, that and the release dates. So I'm just wondering where Tommen is coming from with that prediction.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 29, 2021 0:59:03 GMT
I don't know that I'd doubt a director based on their previous output, since the most nominated movie of last year was a Todd Phillips movie. True, but it's pretty much all we have to go off of right now, that and the release dates. So I'm just wondering where Tommen is coming from with that prediction. I hear ya. Here's my case. For one thing Heights is going to be more politically topical and Lin Manuel-Miranda is hot in showbiz right now and hasn't broken into the Oscars club apart from that song nomination for Mary Poppins, so this would be their chance to welcome him in. And I wouldn't bet against John M. Chu either. Crazy Rich Asians was crazy popular and was in the Oscar conversation for multiple categories and Heights is going to be much baitier. As for West Side, Spielberg's output has been incredibly spotty this past decade with project after project underperforming at the Oscars despite people predicting them early on the basis of his name alone. Plus this musical has already had its moment and I'm assuming comparisons to the '61 version are going to hurt it especially with Elgort at the helm. The '61 version snagged two acting wins, I don't think anyone from the new version is going to be a factor there. I can see it snag some tech nods (sound, cinematography, etc.) but I'm really not seeing it as a big Oscar player. Spielberg is kind of old news at the Oscars. I can already see reviews calling it old hat. Heights is new, fresh, and most important of all, timely. There won't be anything else to compare it to... except West Side Story. And my guess is the adaptation of the more political & Tony-winning pick from the Hamilton guy is going to win out.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 29, 2021 1:14:52 GMT
True, but it's pretty much all we have to go off of right now, that and the release dates. So I'm just wondering where Tommen is coming from with that prediction. I hear ya. Here's my case. For one thing Heights is going to be more politically topical and Lin Manuel-Miranda is hot in showbiz right now and hasn't broken into the Oscars club apart from that song nomination for Mary Poppins, so this would be their chance to welcome him in. And I wouldn't bet against John M. Chu either. Crazy Rich Asians was crazy popular and was in the Oscar conversation for multiple categories and Heights is going to be much baitier. As for West Side, Spielberg's output has been incredibly spotty this past decade with project after project underperforming at the Oscars despite people predicting them early on the basis of his name alone. Plus this musical has already had its moment and I'm assuming comparisons to the '61 version are going to hurt it especially with Elgort at the helm. The '61 version snagged two acting wins, I don't think anyone from the new version is going to be a factor there. I can see it snag some tech nods (sound, cinematography, etc.) but I'm really not seeing it as a big Oscar player. Spielberg is kind of old news at the Oscars. I can already see reviews calling it old hat. Heights is new, fresh, and most important of all, timely. There won't be anything else to compare it to... except West Side Story. And my guess is the adaptation of the more political & Tony-winning pick from the Hamilton guy is going to win out. I've only one fault with your thesis - you say that Spielberg is old news at the Oscars and yet literally all four of his Oscar bait projects of the 2010s were nominated for BP. One can say 'Oh, barely!' and yet that doesn't change the fact that they were.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 29, 2021 1:26:53 GMT
I've only one fault with your thesis - you say that Spielberg is old news at the Oscars and yet literally all four of his Oscar bait projects of the 2010s were nominated for BP. One can say 'Oh, barely!' and yet that doesn't change the fact that they were. yeah but none of 'em starred Ansel Elgort
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Post by JangoB on Apr 29, 2021 1:32:45 GMT
I've only one fault with your thesis - you say that Spielberg is old news at the Oscars and yet literally all four of his Oscar bait projects of the 2010s were nominated for BP. One can say 'Oh, barely!' and yet that doesn't change the fact that they were. yeah but none of 'em starred Ansel Elgort The rest of your arguments I can definitely understand and somewhat share them while still staying on the optimistic side
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 29, 2021 1:47:06 GMT
True, but it's pretty much all we have to go off of right now, that and the release dates. So I'm just wondering where Tommen is coming from with that prediction. I hear ya. Here's my case. For one thing Heights is going to be more politically topical and Lin Manuel-Miranda is hot in showbiz right now and hasn't broken into the Oscars club apart from that song nomination for Mary Poppins, so this would be their chance to welcome him in. And I wouldn't bet against John M. Chu either. Crazy Rich Asians was crazy popular and was in the Oscar conversation for multiple categories and Heights is going to be much baitier. As for West Side, Spielberg's output has been incredibly spotty this past decade with project after project underperforming at the Oscars despite people predicting them early on the basis of his name alone. Plus this musical has already had its moment and I'm assuming comparisons to the '61 version are going to hurt it especially with Elgort at the helm. The '61 version snagged two acting wins, I don't think anyone from the new version is going to be a factor there. I can see it snag some tech nods (sound, cinematography, etc.) but I'm really not seeing it as a big Oscar player. Spielberg is kind of old news at the Oscars. I can already see reviews calling it old hat. Heights is new, fresh, and most important of all, timely. There won't be anything else to compare it to... except West Side Story. And my guess is the adaptation of the more political & Tony-winning pick from the Hamilton guy is going to win out. I can definitely see where you're coming from, I'm just still not feeling it as of right now.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Apr 29, 2021 3:55:16 GMT
I haven't read up to much on this year's (next year's?) candidates, but based off of this I have-
Blonde Canterbury Glass Don't Look Up The French Dispatch House of Gucci Next Goal Wins Soggy Bottom The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story
I'm surprised so many expect Nightmare Alley to be a Best Pic contender. I get Del Toro is coming off of Shape of Water, but this one sounds way more horror/thriller oriented, which we all know the Academy doesn't usually swing for. It's probably got a better shot at being another Crimson Peak rather than Shape, tbh.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 29, 2021 7:52:52 GMT
I haven't read up to much on this year's (next year's?) candidates, but based off of this I have- Blonde Canterbury Glass Don't Look Up The French Dispatch House of Gucci Next Goal Wins Soggy Bottom The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story I'm surprised so many expect Nightmare Alley to be a Best Pic contender. I get Del Toro is coming off of Shape of Water, but this one sounds way more horror/thriller oriented, which we all know the Academy doesn't usually swing for. It's probably got a better shot at being another Crimson Peak rather than Shape, tbh. Ehhhhhh. The fact that Searchlight dated it for the start of December kind of disproves that.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 29, 2021 15:15:41 GMT
I haven't read up to much on this year's (next year's?) candidates, but based off of this I have- Blonde Canterbury Glass Don't Look Up The French Dispatch House of Gucci Next Goal Wins Soggy Bottom The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story I'm surprised so many expect Nightmare Alley to be a Best Pic contender. I get Del Toro is coming off of Shape of Water, but this one sounds way more horror/thriller oriented, which we all know the Academy doesn't usually swing for. It's probably got a better shot at being another Crimson Peak rather than Shape, tbh. I dunno, I think the absence of any creatures and a more psychological pull make Nightmare Alley a very solid bet. It's not a ghost story or a creature feature - it's just a pretty macabre people story and I don't think AMPAS will have any problems with its darkness or anything as they've embraced darker stuff in the past. If they were fine with awarding del Toro for a movie with humanoid fish fucking and pus-dripping fingers and such, they can easily give this one a warm welcome too. For instance, you have Blonde in your predictions and based on what we know about it, it sure doesn't sound like anything AMPAS really goes for either.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jun 29, 2021 19:33:17 GMT
So what do we think of Dune's chances for a Best Picture nomination? I think I'd predict it, because it's probably WB's biggest play and they normally get one of their movies in, but it's still a science fiction movie that is likely to flop at the box-office.
Also, this doesn't help:
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Post by stephen on Jun 29, 2021 19:36:33 GMT
I still think Dune is going to be a huge tech player and I think the fixed ten-nominee roster will have a berth open for it as long as it is well-received. That DGA bullshit is just that, though: utter bullshit. But I think if you see a situation where Villeneuve becomes a critical juggernaut and gets momentum, him missing out wouldn't be a death knell specifically because we've seen weird shit play out lately where someone will miss a key precursor and still take it home. But it is still aggravating.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jun 29, 2021 20:46:17 GMT
So what do we think of Dune's chances for a Best Picture nomination? I think I'd predict it, because it's probably WB's biggest play and they normally get one of their movies in, but it's still a science fiction movie that is likely to flop at the box-office. Also, this doesn't help: I think that’s kinda shitty of the DGA.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 30, 2021 0:42:28 GMT
doubt there'll be room for two musical adaptations and if only one gets the slot, I'd bet on In the Heights over West Side Story. I'll take things that aged poorly for $200 Alex. I tried to warn ya
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 30, 2021 22:18:47 GMT
doubt there'll be room for two musical adaptations and if only one gets the slot, I'd bet on In the Heights over West Side Story. I'll take things that aged poorly for $200 Alex. I tried to warn ya huh?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 30, 2021 23:12:13 GMT
I'll take things that aged poorly for $200 Alex. I tried to warn ya huh? There's no way in hell In the Heights is getting a BP nom now.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 30, 2021 23:52:44 GMT
There's no way in hell In the Heights is getting a BP nom now. because of an overblown controversy that will have dissipated by the fall? Critics and audiences loved it. 96% on RT, 84 on metacritic. It's only FilmTwitter complaining.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 1, 2021 0:26:48 GMT
There's no way in hell In the Heights is getting a BP nom now. because of an overblown controversy that will have dissipated by the fall? Critics and audiences loved it. 96% on RT, 84 on metacritic. It's only FilmTwitter complaining. That, and the fact that it completely flopped. If it came out later in the year, I'd say it would have a slight chance, but a June release is too early for it to try and recover from the box office failure and the controversy, when it is just going to get completely overshadowed by everything that is still to come.
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