Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 27, 2021 3:11:45 GMT
All right, time to kick off the 2021 Oscar season. Which movies do you think will be nominated for Best Picture? Select up to 10 nominees, and specify what you think is missing from the poll if you vote 'Other'. I'm keeping the poll open so you can change your picks with time, so the poll reflects this board's latest views on which movies get nominated.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 27, 2021 3:49:12 GMT
Somewhat Confident:
1. Don’t Look Up - Should be really big, and it could be incredibly timely enough to win Best Picture, but after seeing the divisiveness over the script, I’m not sure it can be a consensus choice. Of course it probably won’t stay the same, but still McKay doesn’t install a lot of confidence at least for the win.
2. The French Dispatch - This feels like the early frontrunner that generally never goes all the way, but it’s hard to see it missing with Wes Anderson being in the club now and seems like a good bet for a lot of technical nominations.
3. Nightmare Alley - del Toro can be very hit and miss, but there’s so much hype around this that I would be really surprised if it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.
4. Tragedy of Macbeth - Although the Oscars haven’t really gone for Shakespearean adaptations for awhile, I can’t see this missing a Best Picture nomination with who all is attached. Not sure about a win though because it seems lately something has come out and surprised while the early favorites aren’t able to go all the way.
Next Tier: The Potential Moneymakers 5. Dune - Another film that should do very well with technical nominations. Voters might go for the second part for Best Picture depending on critics and how well it does commercially, but I can’t see part one winning.
6. West Side Story - Again another film that should do well with techs, but I can’t see it winning Best Picture even if it is better than the 1961 version.
7. House of Gucci - I might be ranking this too high, but the Oscars sometimes zig when you think they’ll zag, so in response to the record low ratings, they could go really populist, and this seems like something that the general audience might flock to see given the popularity of Lady Gaga, the tabloid/crime story element of it, and all the publicity it’s gotten already.
Oscar Bait 101? 8. Belfast 9. Journal for Jordan 10. Next Goal Wins Not to be insulting, but the three movies in this tier feel like they could really pull on the heartstrings, and have audiences fall in love with them, but I’m not sure all 3 can make it.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Apr 27, 2021 4:03:12 GMT
Somewhat Confident: 1. Don’t Look Up - Should be really big, and it could be incredibly timely enough to win Best Picture, but after seeing the divisiveness over the script, I’m not sure it can be a consensus choice. Of course it probably won’t stay the same, but still McKay doesn’t install a lot of confidence at least for the win. 2. The French Dispatch - This feels like the early frontrunner that generally never goes all the way, but it’s hard to see it missing with Wes Anderson being in the club now and seems like a good bet for a lot of technical nominations. 3. Nightmare Alley - del Toro can be very hit and miss, but there’s so much hype around this that I would be really surprised if it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. 4. Tragedy of Macbeth - Although the Oscars haven’t really gone for Shakespearean adaptations for awhile, I can’t see this missing a Best Picture nomination with who all is attached. Not sure about a win though because it seems lately something has come out and surprised while the early favorites aren’t able to go all the way. Next Tier: The Potential Moneymakers 5. Dune - Another film that should do very well with technical nominations. Voters might go for the second part for Best Picture depending on critics and how well it does commercially, but I can’t see part one winning. 6. West Side Story - Again another film that should do well with techs, but I can’t see it winning Best Picture even if it is better than the 1961 version. 7. House of Gucci - I might be ranking this too high, but the Oscars sometimes zig when you think they’ll zag, so in response to the record low ratings, they could go really populist, and this seems like something that the general audience might flock to see given the popularity of Lady Gaga, the tabloid/crime story element of it, and all the publicity it’s gotten already. Oscar Bait 101? 8. Belfast 9. Journal for Jordan 10. Next Goal Wins Not to be insulting, but the three movies in this tier feel like they could really pull on the heartstrings, and have audiences fall in love with them, but I’m not sure all 3 can make it. Thoughts on DOR’s next film....Amsterdam? The beautiful Canterbury Forest??? Next year’s cinematography winner?
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 4:06:19 GMT
Annette Belfast Canterbury Glass Don't Look Up Dune The French Dispatch House of Gucci Nightmare Alley The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story
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Post by DeepArcher on Apr 27, 2021 5:02:15 GMT
Okay I know I'm the guy who was saying Parasite wouldn't even be nominated in November 2019 but ... I am assuming anyone predicting Annette to get anywhere near awards season (outside of critics circles, that is) has never seen a Leos Carax film. I know that having two huge awards-darling stars and it being an English-language film makes it seem like it could be in the running, but, I'll very much believe it only when I see it.
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 5:07:43 GMT
Okay I know I'm the guy who was saying Parasite wouldn't even be nominated in November 2019 but ... I am assuming anyone predicting Annette to get anywhere near awards season (outside of critics circles, that is) has never seen a Leos Carax film. I know that having two huge awards-darling stars and it being an English-language film makes it seem like it could be in the running, but, I'll very much believe it only when I see it. You can just @ me
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 27, 2021 5:21:46 GMT
Ridiculously early. I love these polls!!!
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Post by pacinoyes on Apr 27, 2021 10:06:42 GMT
Somewhat Confident: 2. The French Dispatch - This feels like the early frontrunner that generally never goes all the way, but it’s hard to see it missing with Wes Anderson being in the club now and seems like a good bet for a lot of technical nominations morton's list seem unfuckwithable to me in a general overview way - and The French Dispatch has had chattter that it was a stone cold masterpiece for a solid year now and definitive of its director ........ I think Blonde has a huge upside though or could be a messssssssssssssssssssss and is missing from the lists so far - I mean it's on Netflix, it's easy to sell, it has that trifecta thing of "star/director/subject" ........the book that it's based on is a beast of historical re-enactments, events, and it was like a nightmare to get to the big screen for a long time so there's a backstory there. On the other hand, you have a Cuban playing an American icon, a director who can leave audiences cold ..........and..........no date which maybe means it inspires no confidence in Netflix who if anything is overconfident usually. This trailer needs to come out like now - next week is May for Godsakes ......
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Post by JangoB on Apr 27, 2021 10:40:48 GMT
I'm thinking something like this at the moment (assuming they all come out this year):
1. Canterbury Glass - a DOR comeback with a period piece, an uber-cast and a first class crew. Seems like an Oscar magnet unless they launch a 'destroy DOR' campaign right before the voting or something.
2. Don't Look Up - McKay is a darling now, the cast is hot as hell, it should be Netflix's #1 priority. No reasons for me to doubt it.
3. Nightmare Alley - even with the macabre material, this should be in a good position with that strong of a cast and with Del Toro doing a 'people only' story this time without any monsters or ghosts and such. Should be a tech magnet too.
4. Limbo - now, this is the biggest gamble since we've no idea when it comes out, but I'm already assuming that it's gonna be a big awards hit. Inarritu going back to Mexico and making something more personal + artistic about modern times = Oscars. We only need a confirmation about its release date.
5. The French Dispatch - if this doesn't flop (can't see any reasons why it would but you never know), it should be good. The Grand Budapest Hotel version 2.
6. West Side Story - I think it will be embraced even with all the risks involved.
And then it gets tricky:
7. CODA - seems to me like the indie hit of the season. Apparently it's fairly conventional and emotional so it shouldn't have much trouble moving the people.
8. House of Gucci - with that cast and the amount of attention it's bound to get, this seems like a decent bet but you really never know with Ridley Scott. Could turn out to be another "All the Money in the World".
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth - I'm sure it's gonna be great and acclaimed but at the same time I'm a bit doubtful that a straight Shakespeare adaptation can be this much of an Oscar hit...I can see just the actors and the techs get recognized. But I can also see a BP nom happening too. So far I'll be optimistic, yet cautious.
10. Soggy Bottom - if it's a pleasant and endearing piece of 70s reminiscence, then why not? Could turn out to be something madcap and divisive, could turn out to be a big awards hit for PTA. We'll see.
Obviously the biggest omission for me here is Dune but I just see it as a tech player so far. Obviously it can reach bigger than that but I'm feeling a similar batch of noms to "BR2049". "Belfast" could turn out to be a Kenneth Branagh awards comeback if it's stirring enough, but I think it can just as easily slip through the cracks and get totally overlooked, like plenty of Branagh's films have done in the past.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 27, 2021 11:12:39 GMT
Somewhat Confident: 1. Don’t Look Up - Should be really big, and it could be incredibly timely enough to win Best Picture, but after seeing the divisiveness over the script, I’m not sure it can be a consensus choice. Of course it probably won’t stay the same, but still McKay doesn’t install a lot of confidence at least for the win. 2. The French Dispatch - This feels like the early frontrunner that generally never goes all the way, but it’s hard to see it missing with Wes Anderson being in the club now and seems like a good bet for a lot of technical nominations. 3. Nightmare Alley - del Toro can be very hit and miss, but there’s so much hype around this that I would be really surprised if it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. 4. Tragedy of Macbeth - Although the Oscars haven’t really gone for Shakespearean adaptations for awhile, I can’t see this missing a Best Picture nomination with who all is attached. Not sure about a win though because it seems lately something has come out and surprised while the early favorites aren’t able to go all the way. Next Tier: The Potential Moneymakers 5. Dune - Another film that should do very well with technical nominations. Voters might go for the second part for Best Picture depending on critics and how well it does commercially, but I can’t see part one winning. 6. West Side Story - Again another film that should do well with techs, but I can’t see it winning Best Picture even if it is better than the 1961 version. 7. House of Gucci - I might be ranking this too high, but the Oscars sometimes zig when you think they’ll zag, so in response to the record low ratings, they could go really populist, and this seems like something that the general audience might flock to see given the popularity of Lady Gaga, the tabloid/crime story element of it, and all the publicity it’s gotten already. Oscar Bait 101? 8. Belfast 9. Journal for Jordan 10. Next Goal Wins Not to be insulting, but the three movies in this tier feel like they could really pull on the heartstrings, and have audiences fall in love with them, but I’m not sure all 3 can make it. Thoughts on DOR’s next film....Amsterdam? The beautiful Canterbury Forest??? Next year’s cinematography winner? I almost picked it because of that cast and crew, but Russell’s involvement has me worried. I’m sure there are examples out there that I’m overlooking, but I feel that voters can really go cold toward a director or even just any former nominee that goes on a hot streak and racks up a lot of nominations in quick succession. And plus I’m not sure major critics are going to be there after what happened with American Hustle, and hyping it and it seeming like a huge award juggernaut early on only for the backlash to kick in a short time later, but more importantly even though stories have already come out about Russell’s behavior on set and George Clooney and Lily Tomlin have forgiven him and I think about him groping his niece too, I can already see the hit pieces. Obviously if voters live the film, it won’t matter that much in the end, because they’ve shown they don’t really care a whole lot about optics (the screenwriter of Green Book winning, no black actors winning in lead since the 00s, etc.), but sometimes they can matter. Again it all depends on if the passion/love is there, but right now I’m just going with it getting some above the line nominations like acting but missing Picture and Screenplay. Could be a huge mistake on my part, but not all of the bait is going to make it.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Apr 27, 2021 12:17:18 GMT
Good God What about the Sopranos prequel : The Many Saints Of Newark ? Looks like it could be a serious contender as well.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Apr 27, 2021 12:22:15 GMT
Ridiculously, comically early but...
Don't Look Up House of Gucci The Tragedy of Macbeth The French Dispatch Blonde Nightmare Alley Canterbury Glass/Amsterdam Belfast Soggy Bottom CODA
HM: A Journal for Jordan - I can see this being a big hit with American voters but not international. Still think it will get a bunch of noms, like lead actor, but ultimately miss here. The Power of the Dog The Last Duel Next Goal Wins West Side Story Elvis
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 27, 2021 15:49:46 GMT
Good God What about the Sopranos prequel : The Many Saints Of Newark ? Looks like it could be a serious contender as well. TBH, I just mooched this list of contenders off other sites so I didn't really come up with it. If enough people think the Sopranos prequel is a contender and are predicting it, maybe the mods could add it as one of the poll options. I don't think I can edit polls.
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Post by stephen on Apr 27, 2021 15:58:40 GMT
Meanwhile, here's me hoping for The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent to be this year's Birdman.
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Post by TerryMontana on Apr 27, 2021 17:16:06 GMT
McKay's film with such a cast looks like it will be a contender but the genre of the movie makes me doubt about its BP chances tbh. Same with Last Night in Soho and Swan Song.
Ridley Scott is always a hit or miss, can't bet on him. Nightmare Alley is, well... a remake and I just don't see a remake of such a classic movie winning BP. Same goes for WSS.
Cooper's movie isn't winning because Cooper will never win any Oscar (that was a joke...).
I'm not predicting BP for Schrader, Campion and Wes Anderson atm, while Coen's Macbeth can be a very very tricky thing. Let's first see hoe it turns out.
I guess that leaves me with CODA, Soggy Bottom and the Northman. I'll go with CODA for now because of its thematic.
But it could be any of them, really. It's awfully early.
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Post by stephen on Apr 27, 2021 17:35:28 GMT
One film I'm keeping a strong side-eye on is Three Thousand Years of Longing. Dr. George stepping away from the Mad Max verse and going for something equally as ambitious with strong actors in it could work well for him. There might be a lot of goodwill for him left over from Fury Road, especially if it's a huge tech player.
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Post by franklin on Apr 27, 2021 23:23:05 GMT
1. The Power of The Dog 2. The French Dispatch 3. Don't Look Up 4. Annette 5. Last Night in Soho 6. House of Gucci 7. Canterbury Glass 8. The Tragedy of Macbeth 9. Nightmare Alley 10.Limbo
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 27, 2021 23:30:04 GMT
Ridley Scott is always a hit or miss, can't bet on him. Nightmare Alley is, well... a remake and I just don't see a remake of such a classic movie winning BP. Same goes for WSS. Cooper's movie isn't winning because Cooper will never win any Oscar (that was a joke...). Nightmare Alley is a remake? Of what?
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Post by pacinoyes on Apr 27, 2021 23:33:16 GMT
Ridley Scott is always a hit or miss, can't bet on him. Nightmare Alley is, well... a remake and I just don't see a remake of such a classic movie winning BP. Same goes for WSS. Cooper's movie isn't winning because Cooper will never win any Oscar (that was a joke...). Nightmare Alley is a remake? Of what? Nightmare Alley (1947) ! But it's a better book than the original film ...it's a GREAT book
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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 27, 2021 23:33:28 GMT
Ridley Scott is always a hit or miss, can't bet on him. Nightmare Alley is, well... a remake and I just don't see a remake of such a classic movie winning BP. Same goes for WSS. Cooper's movie isn't winning because Cooper will never win any Oscar (that was a joke...). Nightmare Alley is a remake? Of what? Of an older version of Nightmare Alley...
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Apr 28, 2021 0:03:21 GMT
Hate to sound like a pedant on this, but Nightmare Alley is an adaptation of the novel of the same name, not a remake of the 1947 movie. del Toro has been plain on this point. And even though the 1947 version was developed as a prestige vehicle for Tyrone Power, it didn't end up registering with the Academy and is fairly unknown these days, so that shouldn't really be a factor in terms of how this plays out.
On the other hand, while Spielberg's West Side Story is also an adaptation of the Broadway musical and not a remake of the 1961 classic, that should at least slightly be hurt by the inevitable comparisons just because of how much more high profile the first adaptation is.
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 28, 2021 0:26:01 GMT
Hate to sound like a pedant on this, but Nightmare Alley is an adaptation of the novel of the same name, not a remake of the 1947 movie. del Toro has been plain on this point. And even though the 1947 version was developed as a prestige vehicle for Tyrone Power, it didn't end up registering with the Academy and is fairly unknown these days, so that shouldn't really be a factor in terms of how this plays out. On the other hand, while Spielberg's West Side Story is also an adaptation of the Broadway musical and not a remake of the 1961 classic, that should at least slightly be hurt by the inevitable comparisons just because of how much more high profile the first adaptation is. Good point, but is Spielberg taking direct cues from the 1961 version? I've only seen the teaser, but it seemed pretty similar. Not sure if that should make a difference or not.
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Post by JangoB on Apr 28, 2021 1:19:21 GMT
Hate to sound like a pedant on this, but Nightmare Alley is an adaptation of the novel of the same name, not a remake of the 1947 movie. del Toro has been plain on this point. And even though the 1947 version was developed as a prestige vehicle for Tyrone Power, it didn't end up registering with the Academy and is fairly unknown these days, so that shouldn't really be a factor in terms of how this plays out. On the other hand, while Spielberg's West Side Story is also an adaptation of the Broadway musical and not a remake of the 1961 classic, that should at least slightly be hurt by the inevitable comparisons just because of how much more high profile the first adaptation is. Good point, but is Spielberg taking direct cues from the 1961 version? I've only seen the teaser, but it seemed pretty similar. Not sure if that should make a difference or not. If it felt similar, it's because it's literally gonna feature the same scenes, being an adaptation of the same musical. I know I'm basing this just on a teaser but it seemed to me that the scenes were directed in their own way. A completely different color approach, much more vigorous camera movement, different blocking, different everything really if you study it and if that's what matters to you.
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Post by michael128 on Apr 28, 2021 1:32:05 GMT
News of a new Beyoncé project is imminent so I'm going to hold off on any predictions until then. Sure to be a juggernaut.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 28, 2021 12:42:08 GMT
Judging by what's winning in the last few years, we'll probably have a film that feels topical. So things that don't fit that bill (like Macbeth or WSS), probably won't win it.
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