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Post by quetee on Apr 13, 2017 6:04:35 GMT
Movies that won't win BP: Downsizing (premise is too strange to be a BP winner) Wonderstruck (the academy clearly has no love for Haynes) Dunkirk (I don't need to explain why this is wishful thinking) Call Me By Your Name (the same kind of movie won't win twice in a row) Darkest Hour and Detroit are the safest bets here. Your comments make a lot of sense but given out track record, it appears that even Darkest Hour and Detroit are not safe. Last April, Moonlight was no where to be found and La La Land wasn't even on the map. I guess I didn't vote in that April poll cause I had Manchester as the winner post - Sundance.
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morton
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Post by morton on Apr 13, 2017 6:20:04 GMT
Might change my alternate from Downsizing to Darkest Hour now Why??? What did I miss? I know Downsizing screened tonight, but I only saw one thing about it at AW and that poster didn't see it just heard things. If it's accurate information, it figures since I picked Downsizing for the poll this month not knowing what else to go with. I thought it might be Alexander Payne's time finally just like I was so right in picking American Hustle, Joy, and Silence for the same reason, lol. If not Downsizing, I really don't know. I think The Post could be big, but I'm also not sure that it will get done in time. Plus, late releases have a lot going against them. Maybe it's something that's not on the poll right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2017 6:27:31 GMT
I know Downsizing screened tonight, but I only saw one thing about it at AW and that poster didn't see it just heard things. If it's accurate information, it figures since I picked Downsizing for the poll this month not knowing what else to go with. I thought it might be Alexander Payne's time finally just like I was so right in picking American Hustle, Joy, and Silence for the same reason, lol. If not Downsizing, I really don't know. I think The Post could be big, but I'm also not sure that it will get done in time. Plus, late releases have a lot going against them. Maybe it's something that's not on the poll right now. Let's just say my concerns that it wont be crowd pleasing seem to be true and the script seems to have been re-written to be more exaggerated I just think Post will be far too late and middlebrow without the emotional hook that Spotlight had-- if Spielberg couldn't win for Lincoln, I mean it'll be hard to do it with a rushed Bridge of Spies I'm just sticking with Wonderstruck-- unlike any Haynes movie before, visual and emotional crowdpleaser And if that disappoints at Cannes, I just might go with Lean on Pete, haha I doubt Darkest Hour wins-- lack of huge acclaim, a baity middlebrow film like this hasnt won since King's Speech and that movie was HUGE, which this wont be Dunkirk will have to overcome a lot for being a Nolan summer release Detroit trailer was underwhelming, but objectively speaking it will face backlash
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Apr 13, 2017 14:15:41 GMT
Movies that won't win BP: Downsizing (premise is too strange to be a BP winner) Many said the same thing about Birdman. That had the Hollywood/faded actor element that allowed it to overcome its weirdness (we know the Academy love to pat themselves on the back); likewise, this can be promoted as social commentary/satire and make waves (since it also offers them the opportunity to pat themselves on the back for being politically conscious). Colossal has a premise that's too strange to win BP. This one (trailer/reviews pending, of course) isn't that out-there. No love? Is that why his last three films got a combined total of 11 nominations, six of which in the big eight? Plus, what love had they shown to Barry Jenkins, Tom McCarthy, Steve McQueen, Michel Hazanavicius, Tom Hooper, Kathryn Bigelow and Danny Boyle before their BP wins? I'm not feeling Dunkirk either, but wishful thinking it is not. Major studio, a director they're clearly into making his most award-friendly and (supposedly) ambitious project to date, and one that could also be something of a tech marvel? The release date is a major setback, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that it overcomes that (even if I'm not expecting it to). Again, I'm not predicting this one either, but it's getting raved to high heavens and it has SPC backing it up. Plus, other than the main character(s) being gay, this really doesn't look at all similar to Moonlight. Totally different setting, different approach and different themes. The Academy is no longer in love with Darkest Hour's brand of bait. Like Jay said, a film like this hasn't won since The King's Speech, and this doesn't seem likely to match that one in reviews (88 on MC) or box-office. It looks closer to The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game than Lincoln (and even that one didn't make the damage it was expected to in terms of wins given its 12 nominations). Detroit is an August release from a first-time distributor, it's bound to be controversial, and Bigelow has had enough success in the recent past that they might not be in a hurry to reward her again. Also, if you're going to dismiss Call Me by Your Name for being too similar to the last winner, then surely the same should apply here.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 13, 2017 16:23:32 GMT
I said the same about Birdman, and it's still a safe bet in this instance because those kinds of movies don't often win. Birdman was an anomaly.
But no BD nods or even BP nods. They love his actors and his techs, not so much his directing. Far From Heaven and Carol both underperformed given their critical acclaim and subject matter (they were both positively ripe for BP noms). I'm not looking for Wonderstruck to break the streak, regardless of how much of a no-brainer it might initially appear. Far from Heaven and Carol looked like no-brainers too.
Hardly any of them had made prestige-y Oscar-ready films before. Haynes has made more than one that have already been snubbed.
I know it's getting raves, but that alone is meaningless. It's a small, independent film about a gay couple. And I believe it's a coming-of-age story, so the Moonlight comparisons are pretty obvious on the surface anyways.
I think it's way too premature to say that. Wright has a very strong record with the Academy when he delivers quality products (P&P, Atonement). Of course it's way too early to tell, but Darkest Hour is the only film in the poll I could see winning. Will it? Maybe, maybe not. But I doubt any of the others will either, certainly not Dunkirk or Wonderstruck. I think stronger contenders have yet to appear. There's too much going against most of these poll options.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 13, 2017 17:40:47 GMT
I'll continue with Dunkirk for now.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Apr 13, 2017 18:44:17 GMT
Hardly any of them had made prestige-y Oscar-ready films before. Haynes has made more than one that have already been snubbed. Did he, though? Carol is the only thing I've seen from Haynes, but with the exception of (maybe) Far From Heaven, everything else he's made strikes me as pretty out-there and not really in the Academy's wheelhouse (including I'm Not There and its unconventional slant). Wonderstruck, on the other hand, doesn't appear to be nearly as challenging as those in terms of subject matter, so provided that it doesn't get dismissed as too "cold" and "clinical" (issues that people seemed to inexplicably have with Carol), it could be his BP+BD breakthrough. Perhaps it's not his directing that the Academy take issue with (you don't get 11 nominations across three consecutive films if voters dislike your style), it's just that he's never given them anything that resonated enough for them to fully rally up behind-- which could be the case here, given that the last Brian Selznick adaptation went home with 5 Oscars. Look at Boyle, Bigelow, McQueen and McCarthy, for example. It's not that there was a night-and-day difference between their winning projects and their previous work; it's just that for the first time they came up with something the Academy could bite (in addition to having the right campaigns in the right years, of course). Slumdog Millionaire and 127 Hours are clearly the work of the same person who made Trainspotting, but they have more accessible subject matters and aren't as graphic. 12 Years a Slave is just as "cold" as Shame, but it wasn't NC-17 and wasn't about sexual addiction. Let's wait and see how its Cannes premiere goes down. The "small, independent film" bit doesn't say much when that's been the case for basically every winner since 2008 with the exception of Argo. It's really just that they're both about gay leads, but even then, Moonlight had other prominent themes that are entirely absent from Call Me by Your Name: race, poverty, drug addiction, crime. It was (and was also promoted as) more than just a story about a gay character. Don't get me wrong, I see your point (the first thing I said about this film is that that common element will probably work against it), but they're not quite that similar. I don't think it means much that both Moonlight and Call Me by Your Name are coming-of-age stories, though, because that's so general and vague that a lot of people might not even make the connection. The Artist and Argo were both about Hollywood, and there was no fatigue there because they were very different in their settings and approaches, which appears to be the case here. I'll have to borrow your argument about Haynes here: they love his acting and his techs, not so much his directing. Atonement got a BP nod but Wright himself was snubbed (in fact, he's still a zero-time nominee), while Pride & Prejudice and Anna Karenina missed both categories entirely. That puts him in the same boat as Haynes: not a strong record, going by your metric.
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Post by SergeantTibbs on Apr 14, 2017 18:58:00 GMT
Would it be possible to add an abstain option for those who just want to see the results? i.e. if we posted in the other forum's poll
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Steve17
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Post by Steve17 on Apr 14, 2017 20:22:57 GMT
I voted Darkest Hour.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Apr 14, 2017 20:26:57 GMT
Would it be possible to add an abstain option for those who just want to see the results? i.e. if we posted in the other forum's poll Sure, I'll do that next time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2017 20:07:20 GMT
Downsizing
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2017 0:05:12 GMT
Mods, please delete this user ^ high is an annoying troll and Damon stan from AW who got banned there, please do the same here
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