Precursor Count

Looking at the televised awards (SAG/comparable guilds, GG, BFCA, BAFTAs), the following contenders make a decent shortlist of Oscar contenders (to be updated):

Picture: 
Nomadland - GGD, BFCA
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - GGD, BFCA, SAGE
Promising Young Woman - GGD, BFCA
Mank - GGD, BFCA
Da 5 Bloods - BFCA, SAGE
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - BFCA, SAGE
Minari - BFCA, SAGE
One Night in Miami - BFCA, SAGE
The Father - GGD
News of the World - BFCA
Sound of Metal - BFCA
Borat Subsequent Film - GGC
The Prom - GGC

Director:
Chloe Zhao - GG, BFCA
Emerald Fennell - GG, BFCA
Regina King - GG, BFCA
David Fincher - GG, BFCA
Aaron Sorkin - GG, BFCA
Spike Lee - BFCA
Lee Isaac Chung - BFCA


Lead Actress:
Viola Davis - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Frances McDormand - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Carey Mulligan - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Vanessa Kirby - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Andra Day - GGD, BFCA
Amy Adams - SAG
Sidney Flanagan - BFCA
Zendaya - BFCA
Michelle Pfeiffer - GGC
Rosamund Pike - GGC
Anya Taylor-Joy - GGC

Lead Actor:
Chadwick Boseman - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Anthony Hopkins - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Gary Oldman - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Riz Ahmed - GGD, BFCA, SAG
Steven Yeun - BFCA, SAG
Delroy Lindo - BFCA
Ben Affleck - BFCA
Tom Hanks - BFCA
Tahar Rahim - GGD
Sacha Baron Cohen - GGC

Supporting Actress:
Olivia Colman - GG, BFCA, SAG
Maria Bakalova - GGC*, BFCA, SAG
Glenn Close - GG, BFCA, SAG
Helena Zengel - GG, SAG
Yuh-joun Youn - BFCA, SAG
Amanda Seyfried - GG, BFCA
Ellen Burstyn - BFCA
Jodie Foster - GG

Supporting Actor:
Daniel Kaluuya - GG, BFCA, SAG
Leslie Odom Jr - GG, BFCA, SAG
Sacha Baron Cohen - GG, BFCA, SAG
Jared Leto - GG, SAG
Chadwick Boseman - BFCA, SAG
Bill Murray - GG, BFCA
Paul Raci - BFCA

Original Screenplay:
Mank - GG, BFCA
Promising Young Woman - GG, BFCA
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - GG, BFCA
Minari - BFCA
Never Rarely Sometimes Always - BFCA
Sound of Metal - BFCA

Adapted Screenplay:
Nomadland - GG, BFCA
The Father - GG, BFCA
News of the World - BFCA
One Night in Miami - BFCA
First Cow - BFCA
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - BFCA

Which bolded contenders do you see getting snubbed for Oscar nominations? I think King, Oldman, Close, and Leto might all be on thin ice. I would love to see three female directors nominated, but I can imagine voters checking off 2, deciding that's plenty representation, and proceeding to vote for Aaron Sorkin :-P