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Post by thomasjerome on Feb 8, 2021 19:16:52 GMT
Judas and the Black Messiah is really good and Kaluuya should be sweeping. I buy that it may have come along a bit too late for a major SAG performance, but it’s not difficult to screen for GG or CC. Should’ve done a bit better at both, I think. It’s unlikely that BAFTA is going to go for it in a major way, at least without prior indication that the film is a major contender. Will it even make PGA at this point? Scrudpup is absolutely right that Kaluuya is in a very weird position where his film not taking off could hurt him. Cohen is a now 5x Globe nominee and previous winner in a film that was nominated across the board and did better at SAG. Not hard at all for me to imagine that Globes starting what would be a pretty clear path to the Oscars. Right but let's don't forget that the film is not even out yet and it may generate more buzz till the voting ends. Warner will probably keep on pushing it and they're usually good at that. I know this is not a PTA/DDL movie but I still feel like "Judas..." is this year's "Phantom Thread". |
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 8, 2021 19:18:01 GMT
Again, you can't say Kaluuya is a more respected actor than Cohen based on a single nomination. Cohen is considered a major talent as a performer, but comedy always gets less consideraton than drama in awards season, so his lack of an acting nomination is no great shock. I 100% believe Cohen is more respected for his overall talent in the industry than Kaluuya. A lot of people believe he is a genius. Kaluuya was nominated for a horror movie so I don’t see how you can play the genre card. That feels random. Get Out was a horror genre movie that resonated with awards bodies in a way 99% of horror movies don't (ask Lupita N'yongo, Toni Collete and Elizabeth Moss about the horror movie acting Oscar nominations they didn't or won't get). Pointing out exceptions to the rule, doesn't mean the rule doesn't exist. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 8, 2021 19:22:17 GMT
Kaluuya was nominated for a horror movie so I don’t see how you can play the genre card. That feels random. Get Out was a horror genre movie that resonated with awards bodies in a way 99% of horror movies don't (ask Lupita N'yongo, Toni Collete and Elizabeth Moss about the horror movie acting Oscar nominations they didn't or won't get). Pointing out exceptions to the rule, doesn't mean the rule doesn't exist. I’d say comedic performances get nominated about as much as horror performances. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 8, 2021 19:39:09 GMT
Kaluuya has strength to get into Supporting, but the whole film didn't manage to get Picture, Directing, or even a Screenplay nomination?? Lool. And same thing happened at Bafta. It's pretty clear that despite the gigantic hype, Kaluuya is not the frontrunner of the category considering the lack of passion for tge movie from voters until now. He needs the film to get an Oscar screenplay nod..........BSA and screenplay are linked (unless you're Chris Plummer  ) .........the very reason for Mulligan being the favorite now (to some anyway) is that it started consistently checking off that box everywhere. Get a screenplay nod, Kaluuya still has a shot.........miss it.......well......it's an honor just to be nominated......... |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 8, 2021 20:02:15 GMT
for a filthy casual like myself these noms are pretty helpful in narrowing the field at least somewhat. Between the Globes, the BAFTA longlist, the SAG nods, and these, we know that that these potential players are definitely on the outside looking in:
- Judas and the Black Messiah for everything but Kaluuya
- Soul for BP and Screenplay
- Winslet & Ronan for Ammonite
- I'm Thinking of Ending Things for Buckley, screenplay, cinematography
- Loren for The Life Ahead
- The Midnight Sky for cinematography (thought Ruhe looked good here but he hasn't been showing up) and prod. design
- Tucci & Firth for Supernova
- Ben-Adir for One Night in Miami, which is a shame because he's phenomenal
- Strathairn for Nomadland
- Ma Rainey's: for Director, Glynn Turman (what a shame), editing
on the flipside, these are also an indication of longshots that are still in play as potential upsets:
- Malcolm & Marie for Zendaya
- Never Rarely Sometimes Always for Flanigan & screenplay
- First Cow for screenplay
- Minari and First Cow for cinematography (I'd say Da 5 Bloods too but I think that's ahead)
- Promising Young Woman for costumes/makeup
So we don't know what's ahead based on these because the BFCA are shameless prognosticators who love to cover their bases, but we do have a much clearer picture of 1) what's behind and 2) longshots that still have a chance. It's valuable to know that Judas and the Black Messiah has no purchase and that Da 5 Bloods despite the Globe snubs is not dying.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 8, 2021 20:46:45 GMT
The Father missing in BP and BD is pretty massive. That's the most surprising omission by far.
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Post by finniussnrub on Feb 8, 2021 21:14:03 GMT
The Father missing in BP and BD is pretty massive. That's the most surprising omission by far. Is it though? Seems like the studio has focused more so on the HFPA and the industry precursors given its success with SAG, The Globes and likely BAFTA (It showed basically everywhere it could on the long lists). |
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 21:16:12 GMT
The Father missing in BP and BD is pretty massive. That's the most surprising omission by far. Is it though? Seems like the studio has focused more so on the HFPA and the industry precursors given its success with SAG, The Globes and likely BAFTA (It showed basically everywhere it could on the long lists). Seriously, people put so much stock in this, the most meaningless of precursors. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 9, 2021 16:09:58 GMT
I really hope everyone nominated would just completely skip this stupd award show. It's honestly insulting.
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Post by quetee on Feb 9, 2021 16:13:25 GMT
I really hope everyone nominated would just completely skip this stupd award show. It's honestly insulting. They don't because it is considered relevant now. Not sure how that even happened. But if people still participate in any virtual type ceremony they may have then it is not going away any time soon. |
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sirchuck23
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Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Feb 9, 2021 16:40:48 GMT
Apparently Taye Diggs is hosting this again for the 3rd time in a row. Does anybody other than Taye Diggs want to host this shit?
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2021 4:39:28 GMT
Oh shit. These guys didn't nominate Pike or Foster. They are fucked when trying to play follow-the-leader for the female acting categories.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 1, 2021 4:42:29 GMT
Oh shit. These guys didn't nominate Pike or Foster. They are fucked when trying to play follow-the-leader for the female acting categories. I sense a lot of ties on the horizon. |
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2021 4:43:25 GMT
Oh shit. These guys didn't nominate Pike or Foster. They are fucked when trying to play follow-the-leader for the female acting categories. I sense a lot of ties on the horizon. In before they pull a Force Awakens and sneak the both of them in there. |
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) .........the very reason for Mulligan being the favorite now (to some anyway) is that it started consistently checking off that box everywhere.
