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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 15:47:40 GMT
I agree that Bakalova is in a stronger position than people give her credit for. She's going to win the Globe, and the win coupled with giving an amazing speech would be a big boost for her, because the Globes are 1 week before Oscar voting begins. Also, her win today at London is a good sign for her strength at BAFTA. She even has a decent shot at winning SAG, but even if she doesn't, Globe win, NYFCC win, NSFC win, BAFTA nom and SAG nom is a very very good combo. I would add to this by saying that the Academy's changing demography (skewing younger, more diverse) and the fact that it's such a weak year should help her overcome those hurdles. I don't think she'll win (as of now), but I'm just not sure the raunchy nature of her film is that big of a deal anymore. Definitely not. And I think the changing demographic is why we're seeing a lot of glass ceilings being shattered. Parasite would never have won ten years ago, or maybe not even five. Moonlight, ditto. Even Shape of Water. This is why I also think Youn Yuh-jung is a threat for the win as well. Parasite was adored but when it missed out on acting nods, there was a bit of an uproar. Yeah, it scored at SAG but you'd think with a beloved ensemble like that, someone should by rights have broken in, but the bias against Asian actors became a point of discussion. And here you've got another Asian ensemble in a film that has pretty broad appeal and could do very well with the industry. It certainly overperformed at SAG, and I can absolutely see BAFTA take to Minari in a big way. I think Youn becomes sort of symbolic of the move the Academy will make as an overture to recognize Asian actors, and it helps that she's a scene-stealer in the classic sort of role that would be a cinch to win this category if it were played by an actress in a demographic favored more by the Academy. I also think that a Youn win would be more palatable to some of the more conservative members of the Academy who won't be into Bakalova.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 15:57:28 GMT
I agree that Bakalova is in a stronger position than people give her credit for. She's going to win the Globe, and the win coupled with giving an amazing speech would be a big boost for her, because the Globes are 1 week before Oscar voting begins. Also, her win today at London is a good sign for her strength at BAFTA. She even has a decent shot at winning SAG, but even if she doesn't, Globe win, NYFCC win, NSFC win, BAFTA nom and SAG nom is a very very good combo. I would add to this by saying that the Academy's changing demography (skewing younger, more diverse) and the fact that it's such a weak year should help her overcome those hurdles. I don't think she'll win (as of now), but I'm just not sure the raunchy nature of her film is that big of a deal anymore.
There's also the fact many voters might see her winning as a big fuck you to Rudy Giuliani, and by extension, Trump.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 8, 2021 16:10:02 GMT
Bakalova will only win the Globe by default. She's in Lead with no competition. She would not win if she was in supporting.
Pundits have actually compared her to the J-Lo narrative. Pop corn movie, essentially playing themselves. J-Lo was also the critics darling - winning prizes like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington DC, Seattle.
I think Bakalova will get a nod, it is such a weak year. But not a win. I would even put Youn ahead of her - who is in a more high profile film.
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 16:27:57 GMT
Bakalova will only win the Globe by default. She's in Lead with no competition. She would not win if she was in supporting. Pundits have actually compared her to the J-Lo narrative. Pop corn movie, essentially playing themselves. J-Lo was also the critics darling - winning prizes like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington DC, Seattle. I think Bakalova will get a nod, it is such a weak year. But not a win. I would even put Youn ahead of her - who is in a more high profile film. When it comes to Lopez, she had critical heft, but Dern was always right there (and I think she won more prizes than Lopez overall with the critics) and was always a more insurmountable frontrunner because her film was poised to be a bigger splash outside of her, and she didn't have the tabloid baggage that Lopez does. It's not really a similar situation at all to Bakalova, and frankly, it's tough to really find a comparable analogue to her (which I know is a major reason why people are doubting her chances).
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 8, 2021 16:46:48 GMT
Bakalova will only win the Globe by default. She's in Lead with no competition. She would not win if she was in supporting. Pundits have actually compared her to the J-Lo narrative. Pop corn movie, essentially playing themselves. J-Lo was also the critics darling - winning prizes like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington DC, Seattle. I think Bakalova will get a nod, it is such a weak year. But not a win. I would even put Youn ahead of her - who is in a more high profile film. When it comes to Lopez, she had critical heft, but Dern was always right there (and I think she won more prizes than Lopez overall with the critics) and was always a more insurmountable frontrunner because her film was poised to be a bigger splash outside of her, and she didn't have the tabloid baggage that Lopez does. It's not really a similar situation at all to Bakalova, and frankly, it's tough to really find a comparable analogue to her (which I know is a major reason why people are doubting her chances).They're both in pop corn movies, essentially playing themselves. And BORAT is not going to be an Oscar contender.
The demographic with AMPAS hasn't changed that much. The average Oscar voter is still 60+.
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 16:49:48 GMT
When it comes to Lopez, she had critical heft, but Dern was always right there (and I think she won more prizes than Lopez overall with the critics) and was always a more insurmountable frontrunner because her film was poised to be a bigger splash outside of her, and she didn't have the tabloid baggage that Lopez does. It's not really a similar situation at all to Bakalova, and frankly, it's tough to really find a comparable analogue to her (which I know is a major reason why people are doubting her chances).They're both in pop corn movies, essentially playing themselves. And BORAT is not going to be an Oscar contender.
The demographic with AMPAS hasn't changed that much. The average Oscar voter is still 60+. How the hell is Bakalova "playing herself"?
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 17:15:10 GMT
How the hell is Bakalova "playing herself"? She improvise the majority of performance. She's still absolutely nothing like Tutar. Just because she doesn't have a script doesn't mean she's playing herself. That's not what improvisation is. If anything, she's probably doing more than any other actor this year in immersing herself into an entirely different role and character, to the point that it became a huge deal when she was put in the same room with Rudy Giuliani in an incredibly compromising (if not dangerous) situation. Actors recognize this is a huge deal. That's why she got nominated for the role by SAG.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 17:17:18 GMT
They're both in pop corn movies, essentially playing themselves.
How the hell is Bakalova "playing herself"? She improvise the majority of performance.
You don't seem to understand what improvise and acting are. Or being oneself, for that matter.
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Post by thomasjerome on Feb 8, 2021 17:19:41 GMT
How the hell is Bakalova "playing herself"? She improvise the majority of performance. How is this "playing herself"? Improvising only makes the performance more impressive in fact, she creates an entirely new character. I mean, I know there are might be folks at AMPAS who're unaware of the world, of other cultures, specifically the cultures of Central Asia and Eastern Europe or whatever but I hardly think they would watch this and go "that's how she acts, talks and lives in real life". Unless they believe Sacha Baron Cohen is really a Borat-like person.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 8, 2021 20:05:12 GMT
I would add to this by saying that the Academy's changing demography (skewing younger, more diverse) and the fact that it's such a weak year should help her overcome those hurdles. I don't think she'll win (as of now), but I'm just not sure the raunchy nature of her film is that big of a deal anymore.
There's also the fact many voters might see her winning as a big fuck you to Rudy Giuliani, and by extension, Trump.
That's thinking of Twittersphere. The majority of Oscar voters are in their 60's, conservative.
Regardless, BORAT is not the kind of film that AMPAS rewards She is also a Hollywood unknown. In the last few years, Supporting Actress has tend to favor older, more established actresses. Lupita N'yong'o was able to win, but she was in a Best Picture winner.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 8, 2021 20:41:57 GMT
what's going to happen is that she'll look like she might be close and another overdue narrative will develop and get hyped on Twitter and then she'll end up losing to Seyfried (or Colman again) which will piss everyone off.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2021 21:18:40 GMT
what's going to happen is that she'll look like she might be close and another overdue narrative will develop and get hyped on Twitter and then she'll end up losing to Seyfried (or Colman again) which will piss everyone off. You are a Bad Terminator.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 22:49:31 GMT
There's also the fact many voters might see her winning as a big fuck you to Rudy Giuliani, and by extension, Trump.
That's thinking of Twittersphere. The majority of Oscar voters are in their 60's, conservative.
Yes and no. They are conservative, but like to think of themselves as liberal. The Hillary Clinton type of Democrats. But in anyway, they despise Trump, and have been shown to be vote on more left-leaning movies like Moonlight and Parasite, with the latter Trump specifically speaking against it winning. So, giving a last fuck you to Trump would be very much enough of them might want to do, particularly in a year without a clear frontrunner.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 8, 2021 23:16:20 GMT
The issue with Bakalova is that her film isn’t strong and she has no profile or industry standing to compensate. Film strength is the main distinction between she and Youn and why I’m a lot more confident in the latter despite both being equally dominant with critics.
There is still a very high chance that one of she and Close are snubbed mainly because both are the contenders in films furthest away from BP conversation. You’re are going to get the SAG three most likely (Zengel, Youn, Colman) with Seyfried replacing one of Bakalova or Close at the Oscars. I agree that the voter demo really hasn’t changed that much and Bakalova obviously has the most uphill battle with the Academy. I can think of many veterans who pulled through in panned films. I am at a loss as to any lone noms who came from a comedy, especially if unknown. Historically, it just doesn’t track. She is strong with critics and successfully avoided any competition whatsoever at the Globes, I still suspect she may run into a wall when it comes to beating four contenders in BP nominated films and Close, who has been surprisingly strong with industry nods and is the most overdue actress alive.
I think we have three contenders who have pretty compelling cases for nominations here and I’d find it very hard to believe that Zengel is going to miss is her film gets into PGA as well.
As for Close, she just needs to secure the nomination. If it happens, I think her odds would be pretty solid. The race split in a way that gives her a pretty clear path.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 23:27:58 GMT
In a normal year, I'd say Bakalova wouldn't even be nominated, but this isn't a normal year. Hell, even before SAG, I'd say Seyfried was the clear frontrunner (and she might still just pull it off).
Plus, we don't know how Borat will fare in the Academy. The original one was nominated for Adapted Screenplay.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 8, 2021 23:33:40 GMT
In a normal year, I'd say Bakalova wouldn't even be nominated, but this isn't a normal year. Hell, even before SAG, I'd say Seyfried was the clear frontrunner (and she might still just pull it off). Plus, we don't know how Borat will fare in the Academy. The original one was nominated for Adapted Screenplay. In Adapted Screenplay it would need to beat one of Nomadland, Ma Rainey, News of the World, The Father, One Night in Miami, and First Cow for a nomination. Not impossible, but unlikely. It has no critic award traction in that category either.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 8, 2021 23:34:14 GMT
That's thinking of Twittersphere. The majority of Oscar voters are in their 60's, conservative.
Yes and no. They are conservative, but like to think of themselves as liberal. The Hillary Clinton type of Democrats. But in anyway, they despise Trump, and have been shown to be vote on more left-leaning movies like Moonlight and Parasite, with the latter Trump specifically speaking against it winning. So, giving a last fuck you to Trump would be very much enough of them might want to do, particularly in a year without a clear frontrunner. Bakalova will need a much stronger narrative than this. I doubt Academy members are wasting their time and energy with conspiracy theories on Trump. He isn't important enough.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 9, 2021 0:08:02 GMT
How the hell is Bakalova "playing herself"? She improvise the majority of performance. ...So Sacha is playing himself too??? What kind of logic is this?? Hugobolso called, he wants his dumbass takes back.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 9, 2021 15:07:52 GMT
The issue with Bakalova is that her film isn’t strong and she has no profile or industry standing to compensate. Film strength is the main distinction between she and Youn and why I’m a lot more confident in the latter despite both being equally dominant with critics. There is still a very high chance that one of she and Close are snubbed mainly because both are the contenders in films furthest away from BP conversation. You’re are going to get the SAG three most likely (Zengel, Youn, Colman) with Seyfried replacing one of Bakalova or Close at the Oscars. I agree that the voter demo really hasn’t changed that much and Bakalova obviously has the most uphill battle with the Academy. I can think of many veterans who pulled through in panned films. I am at a loss as to any lone noms who came from a comedy, especially if unknown. Historically, it just doesn’t track. She is strong with critics and successfully avoided any competition whatsoever at the Globes, I still suspect she may run into a wall when it comes to beating four contenders in BP nominated films and Close, who has been surprisingly strong with industry nods and is the most overdue actress alive. I think we have three contenders who have pretty compelling cases for nominations here and I’d find it very hard to believe that Zengel is going to miss is her film gets into PGA as well. As for Close, she just needs to secure the nomination. If it happens, I think her odds would be pretty solid. The race split in a way that gives her a pretty clear path. Actually Helena Zengel seems like the typical Globe+SAG nominee that misses at the Oscars. Glenn and Bakalova are fine.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 9, 2021 20:18:24 GMT
The issue with Bakalova is that her film isn’t strong and she has no profile or industry standing to compensate. Film strength is the main distinction between she and Youn and why I’m a lot more confident in the latter despite both being equally dominant with critics. There is still a very high chance that one of she and Close are snubbed mainly because both are the contenders in films furthest away from BP conversation. You’re are going to get the SAG three most likely (Zengel, Youn, Colman) with Seyfried replacing one of Bakalova or Close at the Oscars. I agree that the voter demo really hasn’t changed that much and Bakalova obviously has the most uphill battle with the Academy. I can think of many veterans who pulled through in panned films. I am at a loss as to any lone noms who came from a comedy, especially if unknown. Historically, it just doesn’t track. She is strong with critics and successfully avoided any competition whatsoever at the Globes, I still suspect she may run into a wall when it comes to beating four contenders in BP nominated films and Close, who has been surprisingly strong with industry nods and is the most overdue actress alive. I think we have three contenders who have pretty compelling cases for nominations here and I’d find it very hard to believe that Zengel is going to miss is her film gets into PGA as well. As for Close, she just needs to secure the nomination. If it happens, I think her odds would be pretty solid. The race split in a way that gives her a pretty clear path. Actually Helena Zengel seems like the typical Globe+SAG nominee that misses at the Oscars. Glenn and Bakalova are fine. In what way? 1999 was the last time a child managed GG and SAG noms. News of the World is looking like a Best Picture nominee. Historically, this category favors contenders in stronger films. It really does not make sense for News of the World to be nominated for BP and for Zengel to miss.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 9, 2021 20:45:09 GMT
Actually Helena Zengel seems like the typical Globe+SAG nominee that misses at the Oscars. Glenn and Bakalova are fine. In what way? 1999 was the last time a child managed GG and SAG noms. News of the World is looking like a Best Picture nominee. Historically, this category favors contenders in stronger films. It really does not make sense for News of the World to be nominated for BP and for Zengel to miss. It makes sense to me because I am not predicting News of the World to be nominated for Best Picture. It only got a nomination at the Critics Choice and a spot in the BAFTA longlist, so it is a long shot at the moment. If it does get nominated, then yes, Zengel missing wouldn't make any sense.
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