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Post by madmonsterparty on Feb 6, 2021 15:20:21 GMT
Oscar wise how do you thing will end up for Glenn Close this year?
Thanks for voting!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2021 15:46:34 GMT
It's really going to depend on how the precursors shape the race. It feels wide open right now.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Feb 6, 2021 17:49:35 GMT
It's really going to depend on how the precursors shape the race. It feels wide open right now. At this point Tyler, that probably makes the most sense.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 7, 2021 0:32:34 GMT
Before HE premiered I thought that as long as it didn’t get completely panned that Close would win, but then that ended up happening so I figured she wouldn’t even be nominated.
I don’t want to get my hopes up again, but so far she hasn’t missed with the Industry while someone who was favored to win missed SAG, and even if Close misses BAFTA, the race is so fractured right now that I think if she just gets nominated her narrative will do the rest. I know it didn’t work for her last time, but this being such a weird year, I think it can.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 7, 2021 0:48:08 GMT
If she's nominated for the BAFTA, I'm changing my opinion, but at this point, if I had to bet, I would say she won't even be nominated. It's very hard for a movie that was so panned score acting nominations, and if Close couldn't get a win for The Wife, I'm thinking she doesn't have that much support.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Feb 7, 2021 0:55:24 GMT
Before HE premiered I thought that as long as it didn’t get completely panned that Close would win, but then that ended up happening so I figured she wouldn’t even be nominated. I don’t want to get my hopes up again, but so far she hasn’t missed with the Industry while someone who was favored to win missed SAG, and even if Coise misses BAFTA, the race is so fractured right now that I think if she just gets nominated her narrative will do the rest. I know it didn’t work for her last time, but this being such a weird year, I think it can. Pretty good assessment. It would be interesting if it turns out, like you said, where her narrative might be good enough if she gets nominated. Time will tell I guess.
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Post by madmonsterparty on Feb 7, 2021 0:59:46 GMT
If she's nominated for the BAFTA, I'm changing my opinion, but at this point, if I had to bet, I would say she won't even be nominated. It's very hard for a movie that was so panned score acting nominations, and if Close couldn't get a win for The Wife, I'm thinking she doesn't have that much support. Yeah, BAFTA is the next big test here. And the reviews are on my mind as well, I wonder if there is any comparison to the reviews HE have gotten and still winning a major Oscar in any modern awards season.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 7, 2021 1:40:26 GMT
If she's nominated for the BAFTA, I'm changing my opinion, but at this point, if I had to bet, I would say she won't even be nominated. It's very hard for a movie that was so panned score acting nominations, and if Close couldn't get a win for The Wife, I'm thinking she doesn't have that much support. Yeah, BAFTA is the next big test here. And the reviews are on my mind as well, I wonder if there is any comparison to the reviews HE have gotten and still winning a major Oscar in any modern awards season. It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 7, 2021 1:47:20 GMT
Yeah, BAFTA is the next big test here. And the reviews are on my mind as well, I wonder if there is any comparison to the reviews HE have gotten and still winning a major Oscar in any modern awards season. It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed. Sean Penn got nominated for I Am Sam, which has 28 on MC. Reviews don't mean shit if the industry is coming out to bat for her, which so far they are.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Feb 7, 2021 1:50:38 GMT
It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed. Sean Penn got nominated for I Am Sam, which has 28 on MC. Reviews don't mean shit if the industry is coming out to bat for her, which so far they are. Yes, I don't get why people are almost acting as if critics are members of the Academy. BP nominee Bohemian Rhapsody won the most Oscars two years ago with a 49 metacritic score. If it's hammy, showy and "transformational" enough, they will come...
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 7, 2021 1:53:47 GMT
It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed. Sean Penn got nominated for I Am Sam, which has 28 on MC. Reviews don't mean shit if the industry is coming out to bat for her, which so far they are. One case 19 years ago. Sean Penn got nominated for I Am Sam, which has 28 on MC. Reviews don't mean shit if the industry is coming out to bat for her, which so far they are. Yes, I don't get why people are almost acting as if critics are members of the Academy. BP nominee Bohemian Rhapsody won the most Oscars two years ago with a 49 metacritic score. If it's hammy, showy and "transformational" enough, they will come...
Difference is Bohemian Rapsody was a MASSIVE box office success, and that made it able to overcome it's obstacles- it's director, particularly.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 7, 2021 3:00:37 GMT
Sean Penn got nominated for I Am Sam, which has 28 on MC. Reviews don't mean shit if the industry is coming out to bat for her, which so far they are. One case 19 years ago. Yes, I don't get why people are almost acting as if critics are members of the Academy. BP nominee Bohemian Rhapsody won the most Oscars two years ago with a 49 metacritic score. If it's hammy, showy and "transformational" enough, they will come...
Difference is Bohemian Rapsody was a MASSIVE box office success, and that made it able to overcome it's obstacles- it's director, particularly.
That is true, but you said it's very hard to find a case, and I found one in like 10 seconds. There is a precedent. Glenn Close is a living legend in a weak year. She has a lot working for her too.
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Post by michael128 on Feb 7, 2021 3:28:41 GMT
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close The Blind Side Nine The Lovely Bones The Judge
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 7, 2021 4:31:19 GMT
Yeah, BAFTA is the next big test here. And the reviews are on my mind as well, I wonder if there is any comparison to the reviews HE have gotten and still winning a major Oscar in any modern awards season. It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed. Not that hard at all. Max von Sydow, Sandra Bullock, Penelope Cruz, Stanley Tucci were all nominated for similarly panned or at least extremely mixed reviews.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 7, 2021 16:46:18 GMT
But it's the NEGATIVES by the competition in this category that favors Glenn Close, who is playing against type.
Bakalova - in a comedy where she largely improvise her performance. Hollywood unknown. Zengel - only 1 child actor has won in over 90 years. Hollywood unknown Seyfried - very difficult to win without a SAG nod. She doesn't have Regina King's narrative. Youn - very difficult to win without a GG nod. Foreign language performance. Hollywood unknown.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 7, 2021 17:54:40 GMT
But it's the NEGATIVES by the competition in this category that favors Glenn Close, who is playing against type.
Bakalova - in a comedy where she largely improvise her performance. Hollywood unknown. Zengel - only 1 child actor has won in over 90 years. Hollywood unknown Seyfried - very difficult to win without a SAG nod. She doesn't have Regina King's narrative. Youn - very difficult to win without a GG nod. Foreign language performance. Hollywood unknown.
Yep so far it seems everything is going just right for Close. I really don’t see Seyfried being able to come back like King even if she wins the Globe because Seyfried didn’t have the stellar critics run that King, nor does she have the veteran respected status in the industry that King has. I don’t even know about SAG. They liked Minari, and Close just won a few years ago, but this group doesn’t mind honoring the same actors especially close together.
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Post by quetee on Feb 7, 2021 18:00:54 GMT
All I ask if you give her the nod then give her the win. I don't want to see her lose again.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 7, 2021 18:03:42 GMT
Even despite the film's reception she seems like the option that makes the most sense as the winner.
She's got the baitiest role, she's got the sympathy factor which should be especially strong after the whole thing with "The Wife", and she's got competition where nobody really makes much sense as the winner.
Colman has just won and the primary attention there seems to be on Hopkins; Seyfried missed SAG and has a rather lightweight role; Youn is unknown and Asian - a bad combo for AMPAS acting awards; Bakalova is an unknown in a raunchy R-rated comedy.
Before "Hillbilly Elegy" came out Close seemed like the easiest win in the world in such a weird, empty year. The reviews sure were bad but AMPAS is not the critics and this really does seem like a movie that plenty of AMPAS members can eat up. Once she's nominated, I can totally see the voters rallying up in support for her.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2021 21:45:23 GMT
It's 38 at MC, so I doubt it. It's hard to find anyone that was even nominated with a movie this poorly reviewed. Not that hard at all. Max von Sydow, Sandra Bullock, Penelope Cruz, Stanley Tucci were all nominated for similarly panned or at least extremely mixed reviews. Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Meryl Streep who won for The Iron Lady, too - as you say, there are several examples.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 2:24:09 GMT
Nearly all the movies mentioned don't have reviews as poor as HE, and the ones that come closest didn't win. 26% at RT and 38 at MC is nothing to sneeze at (as poorly received as Iron Lady was, it was still double the score in the RT). And again, Close couldn't win for a much more acclaimed movie and performance against a first time nominee.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 8, 2021 3:02:37 GMT
Nearly all the movies mentioned don't have reviews as poor as HE, and the ones that come closest didn't win. 26% at RT and 38 at MC is nothing to sneeze at (as poorly received as Iron Lady was, it was still double the score in the RT). And again, Close couldn't win for a much more acclaimed movie and performance against a first time nominee. I don't think anyone would bet on Close winning in any other year, and I don't think anyone has claimed that she is a lock to win, but it is true that the race is shaping up in her favour in this particular year. Those reviews are indeed absolutely horrendous, but 2 years ago her competition (Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman) were critical juggarnauts and in similarly critically acclaimed BP nominees that got a ton of other nominations. This year her strongest competition missed arguably the most crucial nod (SAG), the other one has just won an Oscar, the last three are all Hollywood unknown foreigners harbouring "hostile" qualities to the AMPAS - Bakalova's film is a genre they never recognise, Youn is Asian in an all Asian cast, and Zengel is 12. I think the bottom line is all 6 potential nominees have something working against them, and Close's (being in a shit film) is considered the easiest to overcome considering her pedigree in the industry and the fact that the Academy never really had a problem awarding a performance they liked in a shit film. For what it's worth I'm actually predicting Bakalova to win as I think they like Borat more than we think they do and she's been campaigning a lot. I can even see it getting a BP nod as I think it will win the comedy/musical globe.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 8, 2021 3:44:54 GMT
Nearly all the movies mentioned don't have reviews as poor as HE, and the ones that come closest didn't win. 26% at RT and 38 at MC is nothing to sneeze at (as poorly received as Iron Lady was, it was still double the score in the RT). And again, Close couldn't win for a much more acclaimed movie and performance against a first time nominee. I don't think anyone would bet on Close winning in any other year, and I don't think anyone has claimed that she is a lock to win, but it is true that the race is shaping up in her favour in this particular year. Those reviews are indeed absolutely horrendous, but 2 years ago her competition (Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman) were critical juggarnauts and in similarly critically acclaimed BP nominees that got a ton of other nominations. This year her strongest competition missed arguably the most crucial nod (SAG), the other one has just won an Oscar, the last three are all Hollywood unknown foreigners harbouring "hostile" qualities to the AMPAS - Bakalova's film is a genre they never recognise, Youn is Asian in an all Asian cast, and Zengel is 12. I think the bottom line is all 6 potential nominees have something working against them, and Close's (being in a shit film) is considered the easiest to overcome considering her pedigree in the industry and the fact that the Academy never really had a problem awarding a performance they liked in a shit film. For what it's worth I'm actually predicting Bakalova to win as I think they like Borat more than we think they do and she's been campaigning a lot. I can even see it getting a BP nod as I think it will win the comedy/musical globe. I agree that Bakalova is in a stronger position than people give her credit for. She's going to win the Globe, and the win coupled with giving an amazing speech would be a big boost for her, because the Globes are 1 week before Oscar voting begins. Also, her win today at London is a good sign for her strength at BAFTA. She even has a decent shot at winning SAG, but even if she doesn't, Globe win, NYFCC win, NSFC win, BAFTA nom and SAG nom is a very very good combo.
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 8, 2021 6:22:04 GMT
A nod, no win.
Again!!
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Post by stephen on Feb 8, 2021 13:44:40 GMT
I agree that Bakalova is in a stronger position than people give her credit for. She's going to win the Globe, and the win coupled with giving an amazing speech would be a big boost for her, because the Globes are 1 week before Oscar voting begins. Also, her win today at London is a good sign for her strength at BAFTA. She even has a decent shot at winning SAG, but even if she doesn't, Globe win, NYFCC win, NSFC win, BAFTA nom and SAG nom is a very very good combo. This really cannot be overstated. Bakalova has been making the transition from critics' prizes to industry awards incredibly smoothly, and that has always been her biggest hurdle. If she actually gets the Oscar nomination, she is a threat for the win, regardless of the type of movie she's in.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2021 15:38:33 GMT
I don't think anyone would bet on Close winning in any other year, and I don't think anyone has claimed that she is a lock to win, but it is true that the race is shaping up in her favour in this particular year. Those reviews are indeed absolutely horrendous, but 2 years ago her competition (Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman) were critical juggarnauts and in similarly critically acclaimed BP nominees that got a ton of other nominations. This year her strongest competition missed arguably the most crucial nod (SAG), the other one has just won an Oscar, the last three are all Hollywood unknown foreigners harbouring "hostile" qualities to the AMPAS - Bakalova's film is a genre they never recognise, Youn is Asian in an all Asian cast, and Zengel is 12. I think the bottom line is all 6 potential nominees have something working against them, and Close's (being in a shit film) is considered the easiest to overcome considering her pedigree in the industry and the fact that the Academy never really had a problem awarding a performance they liked in a shit film. For what it's worth I'm actually predicting Bakalova to win as I think they like Borat more than we think they do and she's been campaigning a lot. I can even see it getting a BP nod as I think it will win the comedy/musical globe. I agree that Bakalova is in a stronger position than people give her credit for. She's going to win the Globe, and the win coupled with giving an amazing speech would be a big boost for her, because the Globes are 1 week before Oscar voting begins. Also, her win today at London is a good sign for her strength at BAFTA. She even has a decent shot at winning SAG, but even if she doesn't, Globe win, NYFCC win, NSFC win, BAFTA nom and SAG nom is a very very good combo. I would add to this by saying that the Academy's changing demography (skewing younger, more diverse) and the fact that it's such a weak year should help her overcome those hurdles. I don't think she'll win (as of now), but I'm just not sure the raunchy nature of her film is that big of a deal anymore.
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