|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 0:54:09 GMT
everyone's saying Nomadland but that doesn't *feel* like a winner to me. It's so sparse and meandering and McDormand so understated. It has no likeness to any BP winners from the last 40 years that I can come up with at first blush. Now, a lot of people are loving it so clearly I'm just not seeing what others are seeing, but the same thing happened two years ago with Roma and that came up short too, and I was predicting it for the reasons people are predicting Nomadland now. for the moment, I think it's going to be between Mank (which is being crazy undervalued rn) and Trial of the Chicago 7 but I'm leaning the latter for now for the "relevance". We had our arthouse winne last year, now it's time for a Green Book winner. We'll have to wait and see how many noms Judas and the Black Messiah gets but I think it'll do very well. Don't think it will build enough momentum to overtake the others but it's going to be in the top 5. The thing people are overlooking is that Nomadland is winning audience prizes as well as critics' prizes. It is being crazily well-received across the board in a way few films are. And it evokes relevance just as much as Trial of the Chicago 7, which is an obvious safe pick but has its drawbacks as well. Hell, there's a strong chance that Trial goes empty-handed; Sorkin is losing a lot of ground to Emerald Fennell (who I expect will win Best Original Screenplay, as her film is gaining crucial momentum at the right time and will likely propel Mulligan along to her win) and Cohen's not even the frontrunner in his category. What would Trial have to back a Best Picture play? Nomadland looks like it's going to take Director, probably Cinematography at this rate, and there's a very strong chance of either Screenplay or Editing (if not both). And if we're going down the Roma comparison rabbit-hole, what Roma didn't have was an accessible narrative where the audience surrogate was a well-known actress and Academy favorite. Nomadland is accessible, it's just atypical. Bottom-line, I think people are keeping their hopes down because they expect the Academy to go with the safe choice, but the last few years ( Green Book notwithstanding) have shown that they are beginning to buck trends. Right now, Nomadland has everything going for it and it has the "importance" factor to it that Roma, for all of its auteur cache, did not.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,830
Likes: 1,615
|
Post by flasuss on Feb 21, 2021 1:17:30 GMT
Roma would not win this year either and it’s loss had nothing to do with it being a Netflix release. Agreed. Roma was far too austere and clinical for the average Academy voter, and it had the hurdle of being a foreign-language film with unknown actors. Nomadland is untraditional but still far more mainstream than Roma. It's too austere and clinical for the average Academy voter...yet it won 3 Oscars, including Best Directing and was the film with most nominations, including two acting ones for these unknown foreign actors (which is something even Parasite didn't manage). Yeah, I don't buy it- if it was so alienating, it wouldn't have come as far as it did.
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 21, 2021 1:35:16 GMT
I hear ya, stephen . I just didn't vibe with it much and it's hard for me personally to visualize it as a BP winner. I'm no expert prognosticator and I've paid even less attention this cycle than previous ones. Just going off my gut feeling here, which is often wrong
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 21, 2021 1:40:55 GMT
everyone's saying Nomadland but that doesn't *feel* like a winner to me. It's so sparse and meandering and McDormand so understated. It has no likeness to any BP winners from the last 40 years that I can come up with at first blush. Now, a lot of people are loving it so clearly I'm just not seeing what others are seeing, but the same thing happened two years ago with Roma and that came up short too, and I was predicting it for the reasons people are predicting Nomadland now. for the moment, I think it's going to be between Mank (which is being crazy undervalued rn) and Trial of the Chicago 7 but I'm leaning the latter for now for the "relevance". We had our arthouse winne last year, now it's time for a Green Book winner. We'll have to wait and see how many noms Judas and the Black Messiah gets but I think it'll do very well. Don't think it will build enough momentum to overtake the others but it's going to be in the top 5. The thing people are overlooking is that Nomadland is winning audience prizes as well as critics' prizes. It is being crazily well-received across the board in a way few films are. And it evokes relevance just as much as Trial of the Chicago 7, which is an obvious safe pick but has its drawbacks as well. Hell, there's a strong chance that Trial goes empty-handed; Sorkin is losing a lot of ground to Emerald Fennell (who I expect will win Best Original Screenplay, as her film is gaining crucial momentum at the right time and will likely propel Mulligan along to her win) and Cohen's not even the frontrunner in his category. What would Trial have to back a Best Picture play? Nomadland looks like it's going to take Director, probably Cinematography at this rate, and there's a very strong chance of either Screenplay or Editing (if not both). And if we're going down the Roma comparison rabbit-hole, what Roma didn't have was an accessible narrative where the audience surrogate was a well-known actress and Academy favorite. Nomadland is accessible, it's just atypical. Bottom-line, I think people are keeping their hopes down because they expect the Academy to go with the safe choice, but the last few years ( Green Book notwithstanding) have shown that they are beginning to buck trends. Right now, Nomadland has everything going for it and it has the "importance" factor to it that Roma, for all of its auteur cache, did not. I agree Sorkin is losing ground to Fennell but he’s still the front runner and likely winner for screenplay. SBC probably is ahead of Kaluuya still and we won’t have a better look at who the true front runner is until we get further with the precursors. I also think Chicago 7 is a lot more likely to win editing than Nomadland. So yes, in your scenario it’s going home empty handed but in mine it will have Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Editing which positions it quite well for BP. And I agree Nomadland is going to win Director and likely Cinematography but I don’t think it’s a strong contender for screenplay. Bottom line though is this is all speculation at this point.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Feb 21, 2021 1:50:16 GMT
everyone's saying Nomadland but that doesn't *feel* like a winner to me. It's so sparse and meandering and McDormand so understated. It has no likeness to any BP winners from the last 40 years that I can come up with at first blush. Now, a lot of people are loving it so clearly I'm just not seeing what others are seeing, but the same thing happened two years ago with Roma and that came up short too, and I was predicting it for the reasons people are predicting Nomadland now. for the moment, I think it's going to be between Mank (which is being crazy undervalued rn) and Trial of the Chicago 7 but I'm leaning the latter for now for the "relevance". We had our arthouse winne last year, now it's time for a Green Book winner. We'll have to wait and see how many noms Judas and the Black Messiah gets but I think it'll do very well. Don't think it will build enough momentum to overtake the others but it's going to be in the top 5. Hell, there's a strong chance that Trial goes empty-handed; Sorkin is losing a lot of ground to Emerald Fennell (who I expect will win Best Original Screenplay, as her film is gaining crucial momentum at the right time and will likely propel Mulligan along to her win) and Cohen's not even the frontrunner in his category. What would Trial have to back a Best Picture play?
Where exactly is Chicago 7 losing ground? It has hit every televised precursor - including a SAG nod for Ensemble. And it leads the BAFTA short list. Aaron Sorkin is very well respected for writing for actors. And Chicago 7 is an actors film.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,830
Likes: 1,615
|
Post by flasuss on Feb 21, 2021 2:09:22 GMT
Chicago doesn't seem to have too much passion going for it. But then again, with preferential voting, it might have a chance, even if I'm not betting on it.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 2:12:13 GMT
Hell, there's a strong chance that Trial goes empty-handed; Sorkin is losing a lot of ground to Emerald Fennell (who I expect will win Best Original Screenplay, as her film is gaining crucial momentum at the right time and will likely propel Mulligan along to her win) and Cohen's not even the frontrunner in his category. What would Trial have to back a Best Picture play?
Where exactly is Chicago 7 losing ground? It has hit every televised precursor - including a SAG nod for Ensemble. And it leads the BAFTA short list. Aaron Sorkin is very well respected for writing for actors. And Chicago 7 is an actors film.
What categories do you actually see it winning? As far as it losing ground, I just told you. Fennell is winning a lot of prizes in Screenplay and has cemented herself as Sorkin's main competition. He's won before, but they snubbed him for what should've been a slam dunk with Steve Jobs, so who knows how they really respond to him. Fennell, however, is seeing her film gaining a lot of steam, and she could very well get into Director and Screenplay at this rate, and her script is very showy and they could easily recognize her in writing while Zhao wins Director. Sorkin's very much a threat here, but I think right now Promising Young Woman is peaking perfectly and if he loses Screenplay momentum, where is the support for a Picture win going to arise? Even Spotlight secured a second win to go along with the top spot.
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 21, 2021 2:38:34 GMT
Where exactly is Chicago 7 losing ground? It has hit every televised precursor - including a SAG nod for Ensemble. And it leads the BAFTA short list. Aaron Sorkin is very well respected for writing for actors. And Chicago 7 is an actors film.
What categories do you actually see it winning? Best Picture Best Original Screenplay Best Supporting Actor Best Editing
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Feb 21, 2021 2:40:00 GMT
Where exactly is Chicago 7 losing ground? It has hit every televised precursor - including a SAG nod for Ensemble. And it leads the BAFTA short list. Aaron Sorkin is very well respected for writing for actors. And Chicago 7 is an actors film.
Fennell is winning a lot of prizes in Screenplay and has cemented herself as Sorkin's main competition. He's won before, but they snubbed him for what should've been a slam dunk with Steve Jobs, so who knows how they really respond to him. Fennell, however, is seeing her film gaining a lot of steam, and she could very well get into Director and Screenplay at this rate, and her script is very showy and they could easily recognize her in writing while Zhao wins Director. Sorkin's very much a threat here, but I think right now Promising Young Woman is peaking perfectly and if he loses Screenplay momentum, where is the support for a Picture win going to arise? Even Spotlight secured a second win to go along with the top spot. The critics do not vote for the Oscars. In as far as peaking? There is still a good 2 mos to go before the Oscars.
My point - how can Chicago 7 be losing steam - at this point - when it has hit every televised precursor and is leading the BAFTA short list. PYW was snubbed for SAG ensemble - even though it was predicted. I am not convinced it's the kind of film that plays well to the older, more conservative members of the Academy (the demo still being white males 60+).
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,830
Likes: 1,615
|
Post by flasuss on Feb 21, 2021 2:58:46 GMT
What categories do you actually see it winning? Best Picture Best Original Screenplay Best Supporting Actor Best Editing Yeah, there's no way Cohen has any chance if winning. He's probably more likely to not even be nominated. Kaluuya is the clear frontrunner.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 3:04:11 GMT
Fennell is winning a lot of prizes in Screenplay and has cemented herself as Sorkin's main competition. He's won before, but they snubbed him for what should've been a slam dunk with Steve Jobs, so who knows how they really respond to him. Fennell, however, is seeing her film gaining a lot of steam, and she could very well get into Director and Screenplay at this rate, and her script is very showy and they could easily recognize her in writing while Zhao wins Director. Sorkin's very much a threat here, but I think right now Promising Young Woman is peaking perfectly and if he loses Screenplay momentum, where is the support for a Picture win going to arise? Even Spotlight secured a second win to go along with the top spot. The critics do not vote for the Oscars. In as far as peaking? There is still a good 2 mos to go before the Oscars.
My point - how can Chicago 7 be losing steam - at this point - when it has hit every televised precursor and is leading the BAFTA short list. PYW was snubbed for SAG ensemble - even though it was predicted. I am not convinced it's the kind of film that plays well to the older, more conservative members of the Academy (the demo still being white males 60+). Was Promising Young Woman predicted for Ensemble? It's got a good cast, but Mulligan's really the main attraction there, and while people were hoping for Burnham love, I would never have thought it'd get in over the films that actually did get in, and a few that didn't. The five films that got into SAG Ensemble are exactly what would be expected because they are big ensembles. What predictions there were for Promising Young Woman to make it there feel more like there was hope that it would so it would cement itself as a Top 5 contender. But even so, SAG Ensemble has no bearing on Screenplay, which is where I think it's going to win, nor does it in Best Actress. (Furthermore, SAG is probably the most self-aware of all of the precursors, and I think there's something to be said about them being reluctant to recognize the one primarily white ensemble against the four minority-led films in such a historic year for them. I would absolutely bet against Trial winning SAG Ensemble for that reason alone.) Trial of the Chicago 7 has made it everywhere that would be expected, but general passion for it isn't as present as some of its contenders. It's still kicking around as a "safe alternate", but there doesn't seem to be any sort of real adulation for it. People respect it, sure, but I'm not seeing any real honest-to-God love for it. So rather than saying it's losing steam, I'd rephrase it to say other films are gaining crucial momentum against it. Promising Young Woman is transitioning nicely with more industry attention than expected. Nomadland's still winning everything under the sun with the critics and still maintains positive reactions among audiences. Hell, Judas and the Black Messiah deals with similar subject matter to Trial and boasts much higher critical acclaim, and that film is poised to snatch a major category from Trial's grasp. You may disagree, but I think Trial feels exactly like the sort of film that we think wins Best Picture but loses to something else more avant-garde in one of the Academy's more "inspired" moments. I think it's closer to something like The Imitation Game than it is to Spotlight.
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 21, 2021 3:19:43 GMT
Best Picture Best Original Screenplay Best Supporting Actor Best Editing Yeah, there's no way Cohen has any chance if winning. He's probably more likely to not even be nominated. Kaluuya is the clear frontrunner. That’s simply not true. I’m rooting for Kaluuya but he may end up being his film’s only nom (I hope that’s not the case either). There have been no relevant precursors that point to Kaluuya being the current front runner. On top of that SBC is WAY safer for a nom than he is.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 3:27:18 GMT
Yeah, there's no way Cohen has any chance if winning. He's probably more likely to not even be nominated. Kaluuya is the clear frontrunner. That’s simply not true. I’m rooting for Kaluuya but he may end up being his film’s only nom (I hope that’s not the case either). There have been no relevant precursors that point to Kaluuya being the current front runner. On top of that SBC is WAY safer for a nom than he is. I don't think Baron Cohen's "way" safer for a nomination; they both have hit exactly what they needed to in terms of important precursors. Baron Cohen's film is just overall stronger at this stage, but Kaluuya's film also has just started to gain visibility. But there has always been attention on Kaluuya since the film was announced, and there was always a spot more or less reserved for him. And he's a prior nominee playing an extremely baity role. I don't think Kaluuya's locked for it, but his role is extreme catnip for the Academy and I just don't see them resisting it.
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 21, 2021 3:31:03 GMT
That’s simply not true. I’m rooting for Kaluuya but he may end up being his film’s only nom (I hope that’s not the case either). There have been no relevant precursors that point to Kaluuya being the current front runner. On top of that SBC is WAY safer for a nom than he is. I don't think Baron Cohen's "way" safer for a nomination; they both have hit exactly what they needed to in terms of important precursors. Baron Cohen's film is just overall stronger at this stage, but Kaluuya's film also has just started to gain visibility. But there has always been attention on Kaluuya since the film was announced, and there was always a spot more or less reserved for him. And he's a prior nominee playing an extremely baity role. I don't think Kaluuya's locked for it, but his role is extreme catnip for the Academy and I just don't see them resisting it. I think it’s certainly a 2-horse race between them. I just think SBC has a lot more going for him and a lot more overall respect in the industry than he’s being given credit for. And honestly it’d be nice if they split all the precursors and we had another up in the air category going into Oscar night.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 3:34:21 GMT
I don't think Baron Cohen's "way" safer for a nomination; they both have hit exactly what they needed to in terms of important precursors. Baron Cohen's film is just overall stronger at this stage, but Kaluuya's film also has just started to gain visibility. But there has always been attention on Kaluuya since the film was announced, and there was always a spot more or less reserved for him. And he's a prior nominee playing an extremely baity role. I don't think Kaluuya's locked for it, but his role is extreme catnip for the Academy and I just don't see them resisting it. I think it’s certainly a 2-horse race between them. I just think SBC has a lot more going for him and a lot more overall respect in the industry than he’s being given credit for. And honestly it’d be nice if they split all the precursors and we had another up in the air category going into Oscar night. I think he's got an awful lot of respect, but I just feel like he's fighting for that second-place spot right now with Leslie Odom, Jr. (who I think wins Best Original Song as a consolation prize) and Chadwick Boseman (who I think will still garner votes if he gets into Supporting, just by people who want to ensure he wins at least one Oscar). Kaluuya I still think is ahead by virtue of who he's playing, his prior nominee status and popularity with the British bloc, and the co-leading nature of his performance. I do think this won't be a clean sweep of the big precursors, though; I think someone's gonna buck and throw a rogue win somewhere, and I hope they do.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Feb 21, 2021 3:34:54 GMT
The critics do not vote for the Oscars. In as far as peaking? There is still a good 2 mos to go before the Oscars.
My point - how can Chicago 7 be losing steam - at this point - when it has hit every televised precursor and is leading the BAFTA short list. PYW was snubbed for SAG ensemble - even though it was predicted. I am not convinced it's the kind of film that plays well to the older, more conservative members of the Academy (the demo still being white males 60+). Trial of the Chicago 7 has made it everywhere that would be expected, but general passion for it isn't as present as some of its contenders. It's still kicking around as a "safe alternate", but there doesn't seem to be any sort of real adulation for it. People respect it, sure, but I'm not seeing any real honest-to-God love for it. Which people? Here? Film Twitter? Critics? None of whom are actual Academy voting members.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 3:37:39 GMT
Trial of the Chicago 7 has made it everywhere that would be expected, but general passion for it isn't as present as some of its contenders. It's still kicking around as a "safe alternate", but there doesn't seem to be any sort of real adulation for it. People respect it, sure, but I'm not seeing any real honest-to-God love for it. Which people? Here? Film Twitter? Critics? None of whom are actual Academy voting members. Anywhere. Usually, for a film to win Best Picture, it's got at least people talking about it in some way. But Trial of the Chicago 7 just doesn't really have the discourse around it that one would expect from Best Picture winners. Feel free to come back and remind me of this after it wins the top prize in a couple of months, but I still don't think there's really any out-and-out passion for it.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Feb 21, 2021 4:29:56 GMT
Which people? Here? Film Twitter? Critics? None of whom are actual Academy voting members. Anywhere. Usually, for a film to win Best Picture, it's got at least people talking about it in some way. But Trial of the Chicago 7 just doesn't really have the discourse around it that one would expect from Best Picture winners. Feel free to come back and remind me of this after it wins the top prize in a couple of months, but I still don't think there's really any out-and-out passion for it. But does a film like Nomadland, about a woman's journey, self discovery have that kind of out and out passion with older, conservative white male voters - which is still the primary demo of the Academy.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 4:37:43 GMT
Anywhere. Usually, for a film to win Best Picture, it's got at least people talking about it in some way. But Trial of the Chicago 7 just doesn't really have the discourse around it that one would expect from Best Picture winners. Feel free to come back and remind me of this after it wins the top prize in a couple of months, but I still don't think there's really any out-and-out passion for it. But does a film like Nomadland, about a woman's journey, self discovery have that kind of out and out passion with older, conservative white male voters - which is still the primary demo of the Academy.
It's not just about a woman's self-discovery. It's about how Americans are holding up in the wake of a horrible recession, and the way that they maintain some semblance of the American spirit of perseverance and resilience. It's subtle, but it's strong. And I think Nomadland would appeal even to conservative voters; I know a few people who would fall into that demographic who absolutely adored it.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Feb 21, 2021 5:34:02 GMT
don't agree with the takes that Nomadland is more accessible than Roma. To me they're fairly unaccessible for a lot of the same reasons. Both have sparse, meandering narratives and understated performances. They both keep you at an arm's length from the protagonists' inner lives. Visually striking but emotionally and dramatically underwhelming. I totally agree. I actually find Roma more accessible than Nomadland other than the language.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Feb 21, 2021 9:40:06 GMT
This conservative demo is being overplayed. Yes, there still are the so called steak eaters, the older white male voters that tend to choose safer movies, but it's not really the majority anymore. Either that, or they have evolved their taste. Yes, we've had Green Book, but we've also had a lot of awards for movies that don't naturally appeal to that demographic. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a Best Picture contender for sure, but as stephen points out, people don't talk about it. Green Book was a bland winner but it still generated controversy, it was written about on forums, social media, trades, blogs, newspapers, and audiences at large loved it (it made a shitload of money, important detail). These are not indications of how Academy voters will vote but they are indications of how a movie enters the discourse. The last movie that didn't generate any kind of reaction to it was probably Spotlight, but that movie had a very sensitive subject and the fact that nobody objected to it was probably a plus for the movie instead of a hindrance. That said, we still need to see what the HFPA do and, more importantly, what the guilds do. Trial could very well win GG+SAG+WGA (I'm not predicting it, but it would be a very strong combo).
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Feb 21, 2021 9:53:18 GMT
Can't be assed reading all the discussion, but I'll just drop my 2 cents:
1. Nomadland 2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 3. Doesn't really matter, it's going to be one of the above 2
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 21, 2021 14:45:13 GMT
The “nobody is talking about X movie” may be the dumbest possible argument in terms of any sort of relevance,
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Feb 21, 2021 14:57:36 GMT
Well at least we have you to serve the right arguments.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Feb 21, 2021 15:05:13 GMT
This conservative demo is being overplayed. Yes, there still are the so called steak eaters, the older white male voters that tend to choose safer movies, but it's not really the majority anymore. Either that, or they have evolved their taste. Yes, we've had Green Book, but we've also had a lot of awards for movies that don't naturally appeal to that demographic. The steak-eater argument really is waning in the wake of Moonlight/The Shape of Water/Parasite. The shift to more esoteric winners is a direct correlation to the expanding of diversity within the Academy's ranks. Yes, you might get a Green Book here and there, but Green Book was still a very popular movie with audiences and, yes, even critics (despite what revisionist history would have you believe). And Green Book benefited because its closest critical competition was a Netflix black-and-white foreign-language drama with unknown actors that was always going to be a tough sell on a preferential ballot. Nomadland doesn't have any of that stigma against it, even if the films might feel similar in tone.
|
|