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Post by JangoB on Feb 7, 2021 20:29:26 GMT
Nomadland takes it.
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Post by quetee on Feb 7, 2021 21:30:03 GMT
Yeah, Chicago doesn't have the fire. It premiered at home and still nobody seems to care. Of course this is IMHO but it doesn't feel like anyone cares about it. Everyone I know loved Chicago 7. It’s definitely extremely well liked outside of the ‘film twitter’ bubble. I think the race is between it and Judas (depending how it lands). I can’t imagine Nomadland mustering the passion or support to propel it to a win. I loved it but it felt very slight, and I have to guess a huge chunk of voters will come away thinking “it was beautiful but that’s it?’ Nomadland did win Audience Award at TIFF.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 7, 2021 21:38:53 GMT
Everyone I know loved Chicago 7. It’s definitely extremely well liked outside of the ‘film twitter’ bubble. I think the race is between it and Judas (depending how it lands). I can’t imagine Nomadland mustering the passion or support to propel it to a win. I loved it but it felt very slight, and I have to guess a huge chunk of voters will come away thinking “it was beautiful but that’s it?’ Nomadland did win Audience Award at TIFF. Film festival audience =/= general audience.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 7, 2021 21:44:15 GMT
Nomadland did win Audience Award at TIFF. Film festival audience =/= general audience. I wish I could like this post 10 times. I hate when people use audience awards as a barometer for how crowd pleasing a movie is. Three Billboards won the TIFF audience award, for example, and I definitely wouldn't call that a crowdpleaser.
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Post by quetee on Feb 7, 2021 21:52:55 GMT
Nomadland did win Audience Award at TIFF. Film festival audience =/= general audience. Still it won so people like it. The point remains is that the movie hasn't even been released yet so we will have a better gage of how it appeals to the masses. Same thing goes for Judas, we have no idea how the audience will react to the movie. If you are gonna give a win to a movie where everyone is at home, it should at least be a movie that people actually watched. I do recall Trial trending on Netflix for a few days. Still Netflix hasn't said one word about it. But if it wins the Globe then I'm sure they will throw all their weight behind it.
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Post by pendragon on Feb 7, 2021 21:55:20 GMT
So what do you guys think about the Netflix Factor? Will they give them the win or will a statement be made that no, you still gotta open in a theatre as long as it is a same-day release? I don't think it will matter much this year, pretty much every contender will be streaming somehow. Nomadland will be on Hulu, Judas and the Black Messiah will be on HBO Max. Netflix is bound to get a win at some point even if it's not this year.
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Post by quetee on Feb 7, 2021 22:04:16 GMT
So what do you guys think about the Netflix Factor? Will they give them the win or will a statement be made that no, you still gotta open in a theatre as long as it is a same-day release? I don't think it will matter much this year, pretty much every contender will be streaming somehow. Nomadland will be on Hulu, Judas and the Black Messiah will be on HBO Max. Netflix is bound to get a win at some point even if it's not this year. Nomadland and Judas are still opening in theatres.
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Post by pendragon on Feb 7, 2021 22:21:41 GMT
I don't think it will matter much this year, pretty much every contender will be streaming somehow. Nomadland will be on Hulu, Judas and the Black Messiah will be on HBO Max. Netflix is bound to get a win at some point even if it's not this year. Nomadland and Judas are still opening in theatres. True, but the Netflix films also had token theatrical releases. I'm just saying the distinction this year is fuzzier.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 7, 2021 23:51:42 GMT
Well, I was on Chicago 7 and Da 5 Bloods and wavered between the two. It didn't seem to me that a race movie from Sorkin would do as well as the same from Lee, but it seems that Lee has faded and Sorkin has surged. I still don't think it smells right though. Nobody actually seems to like Chicago 7, while Nomadland is getting passion. Sure, we could get a Green Book situation of a tepidly received winner that nobody dislikes, but this could just as easily go the Moonlight route of a passion pick that nobody dislikes. And that's the key here: I've never heard of someone really being against Nomadland. Yeah, Chicago doesn't have the fire. It premiered at home and still nobody seems to care. Of course this is IMHO but it doesn't feel like anyone cares about it. Who is the "Nobody" that you are referring too? Because GG, SAG, BAFTA (long list) surely cared a lot about it. And there are actual Oscar voters with SAG and BAFTA.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 8, 2021 0:20:01 GMT
Bold move, you might end up crucified. It’s probably got a better chance than Nomadland a) No it doesn't, not sure why you're still so low on Nomadland's chances b) It was just a stupid Jesus joke anyway. I'm aware that Judas is a totally reasonable prediction. Almost every other film people are voting for though...
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 8, 2021 0:28:05 GMT
quetee Once again it feels like your argument is 'no one in my specific circle is talking about it, so no one must be talking about it'. And even if you were right and no one in the general audience really cared about it or were talking about it, doesn't really matter, the industry clearly loves it. It got 5 Globe noms, 2 SAG noms, it will very likely win SAG Ensemble and it showed up everywhere on the BAFTA shortlist, including 4 different Supporting Actors! I'm not even predicting it to win, but to disregard it just because your friends and family, and the few people you follow on TwItter, don't talk about it, is pretty foolish.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 8, 2021 1:21:51 GMT
It’s probably got a better chance than Nomadland a) No it doesn't, not sure why you're still so low on Nomadland's chances b) It was just a stupid Jesus joke anyway. I'm aware that Judas is a totally reasonable prediction. Almost every other film people are voting for though... Mostly my gut, it just doesn’t feel like a BP winner. If it wins at GG, Bafta, or PGA I’d obviously change my mind but I don’t think it will.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 1:56:05 GMT
You're putting your own preferences over logic here. It's pretty clear both critics and audiences have received Nomadland much better than Chicago 7, but you're saying otherwise because you felt the latter was better.
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Post by dadsburgers on Feb 8, 2021 2:04:01 GMT
It's still very early to predict winners and expect accuracy, but it's looking like a Trial/Zhao BP/BD split to me at this moment
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 8, 2021 2:24:23 GMT
You're putting your own preferences over logic here. It's pretty clear both critics and audiences have received Nomadland much better than Chicago 7, but you're saying otherwise because you felt the latter was better. I don’t feel it’s better though. Nomadland is my #2 movie of the year after PYW. There have been no relevant precursors yet so I’m going by what feels more realistic of a BP winner to me out of the contenders.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 8, 2021 2:36:10 GMT
You're putting your own preferences over logic here. It's pretty clear both critics and audiences have received Nomadland much better than Chicago 7, but you're saying otherwise because you felt the latter was better. Critics are irrelevant to the Academy and Chicago 7 has higher audience scores... Before you ask I think Nomadland is a much better movie but the academy almost never picks the better movie. Even though it has a good excuse Nomadland missing SAG hurts. Other films that had good excuses to miss sag but still lost at the Oscars after being strong everywhere. (1917, Roma, Gravity, Revanant) Actors are the biggest branch of The Academy and they like actorly movies. There are obviously exceptions but they are exactly that, exceptions.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 8, 2021 2:48:36 GMT
You're putting your own preferences over logic here. It's pretty clear both critics and audiences have received Nomadland much better than Chicago 7, but you're saying otherwise because you felt the latter was better. Critics are irrelevant to the Academy and Chicago 7 has higher audience scores...
Ah, curious how audience award in a festival is completely irrelevant, yet score in IMDB, notorious for being manipulated, is proof of superior popularity, never mind the fact only one of those movies had a wide release.
Also, the idea that critics don't matter is only true at the Academy to a point. Moonlight and Parasite would never in a million years be in a position to win, or Roma to come close, without massive critical support to make these movies widely seen and add to the narrative.
Mind you, I still haven't seen Nomadland (not available here), so this isn't based on me liking it more or less than other movies, it's just at a point where people seem to predicting against for the sake of predicting against it, without much arguments for the idea.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 8, 2021 3:00:07 GMT
Critics are irrelevant to the Academy and Chicago 7 has higher audience scores...
Ah, curious how audience award in a festival is completely irrelevant, yet score in IMDB, notorious for being manipulated, is proof of superior popularity, never mind the fact only one of those movies had a wide release.
Also, the idea that critics don't matter is only true at the Academy to a point. Moonlight and Parasite would never in a million years be in a position to win, or Roma to come close, without massive critical support to make these movies widely seen and add to the narrative.
Chicago 7 wasn’t at Toronto so how can you say Nomadland is more popular than it without direct competition? Also like you said it isn’t released so how can you tell how popular it is with audiences outside the diehard film buffs at Toronto? You named two movies and Roma ultimately lost to a film much less acclaimed.. Sounds more like exceptions. Also both of those movies were nominated for SAG (and Paraste won and Moonlights competition wasn’t nominated at SAG) so it’s already doing worse than those two.
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Post by Martin Stett on Feb 8, 2021 3:19:27 GMT
Guys, after the Golden Globe boost, are we all underestimating Music? This could be the surprise to knock our socks off.
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Post by quetee on Feb 8, 2021 4:36:45 GMT
quetee Once again it feels like your argument is 'no one in my specific circle is talking about it, so no one must be talking about it'. And even if you were right and no one in the general audience really cared about it or were talking about it, doesn't really matter, the industry clearly loves it. It got 5 Globe noms, 2 SAG noms, it will very likely win SAG Ensemble and it showed up everywhere on the BAFTA shortlist, including 4 different Supporting Actors! I'm not even predicting it to win, but to disregard it just because your friends and family, and the few people you follow on TwItter, don't talk about it, is pretty foolish. I'm not gauging it based on me. I am trying to get an overall feel of how it is trending. For example, most people were talking about Bridgerton and that was a big hit for Netflix. All I am saying is that Trial's response felt muted. Nomadland and Judas haven't been released yet so who knows how people will respond to it. Based on this poll, there are two movies that appear to be talked about: Promising Young Woman and Soul. Ma Rainey is talked about because of Chadwick, other than that nobody is talking about the movie itself. The Academy will pick whatever, they have gone with picks that nobody watched before so if they do it again this will be business as usual. All I am saying is that during a pandemic, when majority of people can see the movie from their home and they still pick a movie that audiences don't watch then they are out of touch.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 8, 2021 4:54:48 GMT
quetee Once again it feels like your argument is 'no one in my specific circle is talking about it, so no one must be talking about it'. And even if you were right and no one in the general audience really cared about it or were talking about it, doesn't really matter, the industry clearly loves it. It got 5 Globe noms, 2 SAG noms, it will very likely win SAG Ensemble and it showed up everywhere on the BAFTA shortlist, including 4 different Supporting Actors! I'm not even predicting it to win, but to disregard it just because your friends and family, and the few people you follow on TwItter, don't talk about it, is pretty foolish. I'm not gauging it based on me. I am trying to get an overall feel of how it is trending. For example, most people were talking about Bridgerton and that was a big hit for Netflix. All I am saying is that Trial's response felt muted. Nomadland and Judas haven't been released yet so who knows how people will respond to it. Based on this poll, there are two movies that appear to be talked about: Promising Young Woman and Soul. Ma Rainey is talked about because of Chadwick, other than that nobody is talking about the movie itself. The Academy will pick whatever, they have gone with picks that nobody watched before so if they do it again this will be business as usual. All I am saying is that during a pandemic, when majority of people can see the movie from their home and they still pick a movie that audiences don't watch then they are out of touch. What are you basing this “nobody has seen it” thing on? Netflix hasn’t released any of the numbers and Chicago 7 has several times more IMDB scores than any other contender other than Soul... Since no other numbers exist that’s what we kind of have to go on here. Also not sure how this matters since Nomadland is very obviously not going to be a mainstream hit.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 8, 2021 13:38:02 GMT
Yeah, I’m fairly confident that Chicago 7 has been very widely watched.
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Post by quetee on Feb 8, 2021 16:38:06 GMT
I'm not gauging it based on me. I am trying to get an overall feel of how it is trending. For example, most people were talking about Bridgerton and that was a big hit for Netflix. All I am saying is that Trial's response felt muted. Nomadland and Judas haven't been released yet so who knows how people will respond to it. Based on this poll, there are two movies that appear to be talked about: Promising Young Woman and Soul. Ma Rainey is talked about because of Chadwick, other than that nobody is talking about the movie itself. The Academy will pick whatever, they have gone with picks that nobody watched before so if they do it again this will be business as usual. All I am saying is that during a pandemic, when majority of people can see the movie from their home and they still pick a movie that audiences don't watch then they are out of touch. What are you basing this “nobody has seen it” thing on? Netflix hasn’t released any of the numbers and Chicago 7 has several times more IMDB scores than any other contender other than Soul... Since no other numbers exist that’s what we kind of have to go on here. Also not sure how this matters since Nomadland is very obviously not going to be a mainstream hit. Netflix only releases numbers when people watch it. In addition they changed their watch methodology to make sure to up the count. I'm sure people saw Trial because I saw it trending for I think a day or two but if you don't hear from them then the numbers did not surpass expectations. Now that it has been nominated for a Globe, I think more people will check it out. And it wouldn't surprise me if Netflix releases numbers post Globe nod. It is better off than Mank though, no numbers and it did not trend in top ten. Netflix new movies usually trend.
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Post by Miles Morales on Feb 9, 2021 9:00:33 GMT
Nobody talks about Spotlight at least The Big Short is relevant. Not sure where you're getting this from given that Spotlight currently has considerably more votes than The Big Short on IMDb and the difference of votes between them on Letterboxd is not huge. Spotlight isn't much discussed about but is well-respected while TBS is considerably more divisive and thus more prone to spark debates.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 9, 2021 15:16:36 GMT
I thought Da 5 Bloods had a chance but the Globes basically said no sir. Still not convinced about The Trial of the Chicago 7 which seems like a Screenplay thing. So I'll have to go with Nomadland, it is a very indie film but it has a big-name actress at the center, it has cultural relevance and it has the pedigree of a winner (Venice Golden Lion, critical darling).
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