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Post by JangoB on Feb 5, 2021 11:48:52 GMT
We talk about actors enough but how about directors? Who do you think will make it in? Will AMPAS nominate more than one woman this time? Will Spike Lee make it through? What do you think?
As for now, I'm predicting:
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland - an easy choice and I think our eventual winner
David Fincher, Mank - he seems safe too, the achievement does stand out among a field of otherwise smaller films
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 - this kind of seems like a potential snub just because it fits the mold of movies like Green Book or Three Billboards (BP frontrunners with modest direction and no visual flair) but I guess this particular year such a contender will eventually make it in
Florian Zeller, The Father - he reminds me of Lenny Abrahamson back in 2015 with a smaller scale movie which just moves people emotionally and which has something extra going for it
And then it gets tough.
The pressure for more diverse contenders is particularly obvious this year but I'm not sure who'll pull through. I can't see this branch going for Regina King or especially George C. Wolfe, I can see them doing an out-there thing by picking Darius Marder, and I guess Paul Greengrass can't be totally out of the question with his more tech-heavy contender. Lee Isaac Chung can make it in but for now I don't really see it.
Which brings me to two people - Spike Lee and Emerald Fennell. "Da 5 Bloods" hasn't had the best start so far but I can picture AMPAS supporting Lee. And "PYW" seems to be a big hit, will probably get plenty of BAFTA nods and can become a sort of female "Get Out" this time at the Oscars - an entertaining genre movie dealing with zeitgeisty social issues.
So far I'm leaning towards Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman.
What about you?
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 5, 2021 11:52:56 GMT
Fennell
Fincher
Sorkin
Zhao
And then... fuck if I know. Could really be any of Chung, Zeller, King x2, Wolfe or Lee. I guess I'll go with Chung for now.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 5, 2021 12:30:20 GMT
I'd only put Zhao as a lock for the nomination right now.
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Post by franklin on Feb 5, 2021 12:37:50 GMT
1. Fincher
2. Zhao
3. Sorkin
4. Fennell
5. Lee/Chung
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 14:00:34 GMT
Zhao
Fincher
Sorkin
Fennell
*WILDCARD
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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2021 14:08:15 GMT
Fennell, Fincher, Lee, Zeller, Zhao.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 5, 2021 14:11:21 GMT
I dunno, but I believe if Zeller is nominated he becomes the first playwright ever nominated for Director for adapting his own play - not sure - but that seems likely and especially for a debut.
He does a great job too - of all the plays adapted this year The Father has an actual visual palette and visual vision to it - it's the least stagy of the plays this year .......by a good margin too.....
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 14:23:58 GMT
Fennell, Fincher, Lee, Zeller, Zhao. Is it gonna take Sorkin’s DGA nom for you to predict him? |
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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2021 14:34:41 GMT
Fennell, Fincher, Lee, Zeller, Zhao. Is it gonna take Sorkin’s DGA nom for you to predict him? Probably not even then. Four of the five have the passion/narrative, and Zeller I think is going to be a strong late-breaker. Sorkin I think gets McDonagh'd. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 5, 2021 15:13:14 GMT
Zhao *****
Fincher
Sorkin
King
Chung
alt. Spike Lee
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 15:13:46 GMT
Is it gonna take Sorkin’s DGA nom for you to predict him? Probably not even then. Four of the five have the passion/narrative, and Zeller I think is going to be a strong late-breaker. Sorkin I think gets McDonagh'd. I think Sorkin is 2nd or 3rd at worst. His film is going to be the front runner to win BP (or at minimum a strong contender), he’s locked in for a writing nom, and he’s probably going to hit every precursor for Director. |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Feb 5, 2021 15:19:50 GMT
I probably think its going to be the 5 you've listed. I think Lee (and by extension Da 5 Bloods) is done for the most part. More of a critics darling than any industry support. So I'll go with the 5 you've mentioned.
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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2021 15:29:14 GMT
Probably not even then. Four of the five have the passion/narrative, and Zeller I think is going to be a strong late-breaker. Sorkin I think gets McDonagh'd. I think Sorkin is 2nd or 3rd at worst. His film is going to be the front runner to win BP (or at minimum a strong contender), he’s locked in for a writing nom, and he’s probably going to hit every precursor for Director. Sounds like Three Billboards to me. But sure, he might be that high up as well. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 5, 2021 15:31:32 GMT
Really hope Fennell makes it. It would be the first time BD has more than one female nominee.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 15:48:47 GMT
I think Sorkin is 2nd or 3rd at worst. His film is going to be the front runner to win BP (or at minimum a strong contender), he’s locked in for a writing nom, and he’s probably going to hit every precursor for Director. Sounds like Three Billboards to me. But sure, he might be that high up as well. Feels closer to Green Book to me. |
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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2021 15:52:44 GMT
Sounds like Three Billboards to me. But sure, he might be that high up as well. Feels closer to Green Book to me. And how did that work for Farrelly in Best Director? |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 16:15:50 GMT
Feels closer to Green Book to me. And how did that work for Farrelly in Best Director? Fair, I’ll pivot to McKay then. |
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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2021 16:19:45 GMT
And how did that work for Farrelly in Best Director? Fair, I’ll pivot to McKay then. The thing about Best Director is in the last ten years, it's been steadily drifting further and further away from competently directed Picture contenders and more towards the eclectic, showy pieces. The Directors' branch is the one most geared towards the auteurs than any other voting branch. And I think Sorkin's easily one of those that can lose a spot to flashier fare. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 5, 2021 16:31:26 GMT
Fair, I’ll pivot to McKay then. The thing about Best Director is in the last ten years, it's been steadily drifting further and further away from competently directed Picture contenders and more towards the eclectic, showy pieces. The Directors' branch is the one most geared towards the auteurs than any other voting branch. And I think Sorkin's easily one of those that can lose a spot to flashier fare. I personally hope that’s the case since I found Sorkin’s direction pretty mediocre, I’m just not confident in it still. |
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Post by ptacoenlover on Feb 5, 2021 17:32:24 GMT
Fair, I’ll pivot to McKay then. The thing about Best Director is in the last ten years, it's been steadily drifting further and further away from competently directed Picture contenders and more towards the eclectic, showy pieces. The Directors' branch is the one most geared towards the auteurs than any other voting branch. And I think Sorkin's easily one of those that can lose a spot to flashier fare. Which makes me think Lee will sneak in here, despite Da 5 Bloods having a slow start in the industry awards. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 5, 2021 17:42:20 GMT
Fennell
Fincher
Sorkin
Zeller
Zhao
I'm still going back and forth between King and Zeller but for now I'm going with the latter. I really think the writing's on the wall with Da 5 Bloods. Last summer was a long time ago.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 5, 2021 17:48:29 GMT
Recently there's almost always at least one surprise nomination each year in this category. I don't see Lee missing DGA, but I can see someone being nominated completely out of the blue like Pawlikowski, PTA (for Phantom Thread), Abrahamson, Zeitlin, or Haneke. If Another Round does well at the BAFTAs I can see Thomas Vintenberg being that guy.
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Post by dadsburgers on Feb 6, 2021 3:10:46 GMT
Recently there's almost always at least one surprise nomination each year in this category. I don't see Lee missing DGA, but I can see someone being nominated completely out of the blue like Pawlikowski, PTA (for Phantom Thread), Abrahamson, Zeitlin, or Haneke. If Another Round does well at the BAFTAs I can see Thomas Vintenberg being that guy. If the film is really strong enough, not a terrible left-field guess. They've certainly shown they're not afraid to go international recently, and moreso than other awards. I do think people tend to forget we're kind of obligated to make some risky predictions, because the results never end up exactly as expected. Here's what I'll predict today, but it feels particularly up in the air this year: Chloe Zhao David Fincher Regina King Emerald Fennell Florian Zeller I'm gonna predict all three ladies make it in together, because why not dream |
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Post by stephen on Feb 6, 2021 3:31:39 GMT
Recently there's almost always at least one surprise nomination each year in this category. I don't see Lee missing DGA, but I can see someone being nominated completely out of the blue like Pawlikowski, PTA (for Phantom Thread), Abrahamson, Zeitlin, or Haneke. If Another Round does well at the BAFTAs I can see Thomas Vintenberg being that guy. Vinterberg has an insanely heartbreaking narrative, too, with his daughter (who was the genesis for this film) dying right as he was starting production on it, and having to work through his grief in making the movie. I doubt he'll push that too hard, but his Oscar speech has the potential to be utterly devastating. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 6, 2021 4:37:23 GMT
Recently there's almost always at least one surprise nomination each year in this category. I don't see Lee missing DGA, but I can see someone being nominated completely out of the blue like Pawlikowski, PTA (for Phantom Thread), Abrahamson, Zeitlin, or Haneke. If Another Round does well at the BAFTAs I can see Thomas Vintenberg being that guy. Vinterberg has an insanely heartbreaking narrative, too, with his daughter (who was the genesis for this film) dying right as he was starting production on it, and having to work through his grief in making the movie. I doubt he'll push that too hard, but his Oscar speech has the potential to be utterly devastating. Oh I did not know that. That's really sad. |
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