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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 27, 2021 13:00:05 GMT
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 27, 2021 13:11:29 GMT
Delroy Lindo is probably 2nd in the race considering the strength of his movie (Da 5 Bloods)and performance among the critics groups. He should be on this poll.
Ahmed isn't competitive to win, and Hopkins threat has become overrated thanks to an utterly botched momentum damaging campaign for The Father by Sony Pictures Classic (and he may even fall to 4th behind Ahmed in my rankings if things keep up), and I think he should be behind Lindo right now. None of them are beating Boseman (but if I were to bet on a spoiler right now, it would be Lindo) . As things stand, it's:
1 Boseman
2 Lindo
3 Hopkins
4 Ahmed
5 Oldman/Yeun/Mikklesen/JDW/Stanfield/Rahim
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 27, 2021 13:30:02 GMT
Boseman by a mile, followed by Lindo.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 27, 2021 13:34:12 GMT
I don't see how Boseman can lose this.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 13:35:47 GMT
I'm not convinced Boseman won't split the votes with his supporting performance. Also, it's pretty clear Lindo is at least 2nd, if not first at this point.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 27, 2021 13:36:57 GMT
I'm not convinced Boseman won't split the votes with his supporting performance. Also, it's pretty clear Lindo is at least 2nd, if not first at this point. Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 27, 2021 13:39:13 GMT
I'm not convinced Boseman won't split the votes with his supporting performance. Also, it's pretty clear Lindo is at least 2nd, if not first at this point. Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. The absolute scenes if that happened   |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 13:40:28 GMT
I'm not convinced Boseman won't split the votes with his supporting performance. Also, it's pretty clear Lindo is at least 2nd, if not first at this point. Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. There's zero chance of that happening. If it even seems a threat to win, the backlash would be immense- "he's only winning because he's a corpse", "the best campaign is to be dead", "guy was never seriously considered and then dies, and pulls two wins in the same year", etc. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 27, 2021 13:44:24 GMT
Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. There's zero chance of that happening. If it even seems a threat to win, the backlash would be immense- "he's only winning because he's a corpse", "the best campaign is to be dead", "guy was never seriously considered and then dies, and pulls two wins in the same year", etc. I don't think it will happen at all either, but I don't think voters will give a single solitary shit if there is a backlash (it's not their problem how others react to it, which they show every year by giving films like Green Book best picture, despite "backlash") , so that won't be what stops them from doing it. I just think the supporting race will soon coalesce into a top 2 that doesn't really have Boseman as a serious contender for the win (probably Kaaylua and Cohen). |
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Post by morton on Jan 27, 2021 13:56:12 GMT
I'm not convinced Boseman won't split the votes with his supporting performance. Also, it's pretty clear Lindo is at least 2nd, if not first at this point. Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. I don't think he'll win both, but I feel like he'll be the first person that came the closest to winning both. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 27, 2021 14:04:53 GMT
Honestly I would not be surprised if Boseman becomes the first person to win in both categories he's nominated in history. I feel like there's a decent shot of that happening. I don't think he'll win both, but I feel like he'll be the first person that came the closest to winning both. I feel the closest to doing the "double" was probably Jessica Lange when she was nominated for Tootsie in supporting actress (which she won) and Frances (in Best Actress). Were Meryl Streep not there for Sophie's Choice, I believe Lange would have deservedly won Best Actress for Frances. |
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 27, 2021 14:17:07 GMT
Chadwick Boseman will win this thing going away like Usain Bolt in a 100m race.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 27, 2021 14:45:30 GMT
Boseman for sure. I actually think if anyone is a threat to beat him it’s Ahmed, but I’m sure votes will take the stance that he’s young and will have many great performances in his future.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 27, 2021 14:45:33 GMT
Boseman is like 5th in Supporting, double win talk is getting a bit out of hand.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 27, 2021 14:48:14 GMT
Boseman is like 5th in Supporting, double win talk is getting a bit out of hand. I really don’t even think he’s going to get a supporting nom. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 27, 2021 14:59:40 GMT
Boseman is like 5th in Supporting, double win talk is getting a bit out of hand. I really don’t even think he’s going to get a supporting nom. What's your 5? |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 27, 2021 15:09:06 GMT
I really don’t even think he’s going to get a supporting nom. What's your 5? Odom Jr SBC Kaluuya Raci Murray I could see Murray or even Raci missing but I think a 2nd actor from TOTC7 or possibly Straitharn would be ahead of Boseman still. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 27, 2021 15:20:06 GMT
Bose.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 15:21:06 GMT
There's zero chance of that happening. If it even seems a threat to win, the backlash would be immense- "he's only winning because he's a corpse", "the best campaign is to be dead", "guy was never seriously considered and then dies, and pulls two wins in the same year", etc. I don't think it will happen at all either, but I don't think voters will give a single solitary shit if there is a backlash (it's not their problem how others react to it, which they show every year by giving films like Green Book best picture, despite "backlash") , so that won't be what stops them from doing it. I just think the supporting race will soon coalesce into a top 2 that doesn't really have Boseman as a serious contender for the win (probably Kaaylua and Cohen).Green Book only won because of backlash against Netflix, though.
And as I said many times, people tend to overestimate the impact of deaths in the race- there's never been a single winner in history that would not have won if he or she was still alive; if anything, that hurts the campaign because the actor can't, well, campaign.
Also, thinking that Boseman might be the one that wins 2 Oscars in the same year just because he died due to some unprecedented commotion in a year that saw more deaths, and more celebrity deaths, than any other, 8 months after he died is just non-sense. He's the favorite, but he's not (at this stage) a lock by any means. And if he was alive he'd still be a major contender, and probably the favorite.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 15:22:03 GMT
I don't think he'll win both, but I feel like he'll be the first person that came the closest to winning both. I feel the closest to doing the "double" was probably Jessica Lange when she was nominated for Tootsie in supporting actress (which she won) and Frances (in Best Actress). Were Meryl Streep not there for Sophie's Choice, I believe Lange would have deservedly won Best Actress for Frances. If Streep wasn't in the running, Lange would win for Frances, but certainly would lose for Tootsie. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 27, 2021 15:23:39 GMT
Ironically, I think the person who came closest to winning two Oscars in the same year is the first person to lose both: Sigourney Weaver. Everyone else either won one and had no shot at the other, or were more distant from the wins than Weaver.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 27, 2021 15:24:52 GMT
Odom Jr SBC Kaluuya Raci Murray I could see Murray or even Raci missing but I think a 2nd actor from TOTC7 or possibly Straitharn would be ahead of Boseman still. I think you're way too low on Boseman's chances. Da 5 Bloods is getting stronger by the day and there is easily enough goodwill and sentiment to carry Chadwick to 2 noms. |
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 15:26:01 GMT
Ironically, I think the person who came closest to winning two Oscars in the same year is the first person to lose both: Sigourney Weaver. Everyone else either won one and had no shot at the other, or were more distant from the wins than Weaver. I think you're right. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 27, 2021 15:32:35 GMT
I don't think it will happen at all either, but I don't think voters will give a single solitary shit if there is a backlash (it's not their problem how others react to it, which they show every year by giving films like Green Book best picture, despite "backlash") , so that won't be what stops them from doing it. I just think the supporting race will soon coalesce into a top 2 that doesn't really have Boseman as a serious contender for the win (probably Kaaylua and Cohen).Green Book only won because of backlash against Netflix, though.
And as I said many times, people tend to overestimate the impact of deaths in the race- there's never been a single winner in history that would not have won if he or she was still alive; if anything, that hurts the campaign because the actor can't, well, campaign.
Also, thinking that Boseman might be the one that wins 2 Oscars in the same year just because he died due to some unprecedented commotion in a year that saw more deaths, and more celebrity deaths, than any other, 8 months after he died is just non-sense. He's the favorite, but he's not (at this stage) a lock by any means. And if he was alive he'd still be a major contender, and probably the favorite.
I think the only reason think Boseman even has a remote shot at winning supporting, is that their is no overwhelming consensus favorite performance in the male supporting category (yet. As I said, the category will coalesce soon). Just a lot of performances that people kinda like. So at the moment he kinda has as good as chance to win supporting as anyone else on paper, especially as he has won multiple critics awards for it (and major ones as well). It's not just about his death. He is the clear frontrunner in lead actor, and he seems to be as competitive as anyone else in supporting (especially when his supporting movie Da 5 Bloods is gaining momentum every day now and looking like a potential dark horse for BP. His movie and his performance with critics groups make him a legit threat in supporting, even though I don't see him winning). |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Jan 27, 2021 15:36:25 GMT
Green Book only won because of backlash against Netflix, though.
And as I said many times, people tend to overestimate the impact of deaths in the race- there's never been a single winner in history that would not have won if he or she was still alive; if anything, that hurts the campaign because the actor can't, well, campaign.
Also, thinking that Boseman might be the one that wins 2 Oscars in the same year just because he died due to some unprecedented commotion in a year that saw more deaths, and more celebrity deaths, than any other, 8 months after he died is just non-sense. He's the favorite, but he's not (at this stage) a lock by any means. And if he was alive he'd still be a major contender, and probably the favorite.
I think the only reason think Boseman even has a remote shot at winning supporting, is that their is no overwhelming consensus favorite performance in his category (yet). Just a lot of performances that people kinda like. So at the moment he kinda has as good as chance to win supporting as anyone else on paper, especially as he has won multiple critics awards for it (and major ones as well). It's not just about his death. He is the clear frontrunner in lead actor, and he seems to be as competitive as anyone else in supporting (especially when his supporting movie Da 5 Bloods is gaining momentum every day now and looking like a potential dark horse for BP).
Hence why I have my suspicions he might not win either, vote splitting- and no, he doesn't have enough support to win both, and won't win both just because he died.
Him missing in supporting actually increases his chances in lead, since if he gets double nom is possible many voters, perhaps even a majority, might reward him there and vote for Hopkins or Lindo in leading.
That can change of course if someone begin to sweep the televised awards for Supporting, of course. Then an eventual nomination there becomes it's own reward.
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