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Post by JangoB on Dec 27, 2020 12:05:48 GMT
These seem like the most difficult to predict this year with not enough flashy contenders and with the extended season leaving the fate of some films yet unknown. Still, it's worth a try! BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYMank Nomadland Tenet News of the World Judas and the Black MessiahI feel that the branch may support Da 5 Bloods because of its variying aspect ratios and different shooting formats which make the image livelier. Judas and the Black Messiah is my biggest gamble here since Bobbitt has somehow never got nominated and we don't really know what'll happen to this movie at all awards-wise, but the image sure seems juicy based on the trailer and if the movie makes enough of a splash, I think it can get in. To be fair, I'm only confident in Mank and Nomadland here. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNMank Tenet News of the World The United States vs. Billie Holiday EmmaI suppose Mulan has a shot here but it seems already forgotten and maybe a bit toxic for Disney to pimp out during awards season. I hope that The Personal History of David Copperfield will be noticed here for its wonderful work but for now I'm sticking with these. Of course we don't know how the Billie Holiday movie will be received but there seems enough there to justify a prediction like this, plus the 1972 biopic did get nominated in this category so unless this new one is some cheap-looking production, it can easily repeat that feat in an empty year. I'm laughing my ass off at some folks on AW confidently predicting Ma Rainey in this category for its two barren rooms and a couple of 5-second shop facade shots. BEST EDITINGMank Nomadland The Trial of the Chicago 7 Da 5 Bloods Judas and the Black MessiahAgain, betting on Judas getting a nod here sight unseen because that looks like an intense one. Not having a Paul Greengrass contender edited by William Goldenberg here feels weird to me but I'm already overpredicting it and some have noted that the movie's pace is actually quite languid so I'll refrain from putting it here at this point. BEST ORIGINAL SCOREMank Tenet Da 5 Bloods News of the World SoulThe biggest question here is whether AMPAS will disqualify Soul for the jazz pieces being composed separately...Count this prediction as my hoping that they won't, and that they will just nominate the three people responsible for the music. Seems simple enough so I dunno why AMPAS always makes such a big deal about this. But even though I hope for the best, I feel like it may not happen, and in that case I'll be predicting The Midnight Sky here. They love their Desplat and his music is quite good and noticeable. Or maybe it'll be Minari. Crossing my fingers for Soul though. BEST COSTUME DESIGNMank Emma The United States vs. Billie Holiday The Personal History of David Copperfield News of the WorldI've seen a lot of predictions for Ma Rainey here but I don't think that they're gonna nominate a bunch of tuxedos and just a couple of colorful dresses. This is a chamber piece and no amount of quick cutaways is gonna make it feel different so I don't see why the branch would nominate that when the scale of work obviously matters to them. I suppose Mulan can pop up here. BEST SOUNDMank Tenet Sound of Metal News of the World The United States vs. Billie HolidayMaybe Soul because of its music component. Maybe The Invisible Man. Or maybe something like Greyhound or The Outpost as our war contender. But so far I feel somewhat confident in my predicted five. BEST VISUAL EFFECTSTenet The Invisible Man The Midnight Sky Birds of Prey Sonic the HedgehogThis is the most difficult one to predict. Who the heck knows what's gonna happen - maybe it'll be The Invisible Man's restrained effects (although this branch does not usually go for restrained), maybe they'll remember Love and Monsters which looks awesome in terms of creature work. I just don't know. Wonder Woman's effects have been criticized but it's among the few effects-heavy blockbusters of the year so I guess it'll make it in. Sonic may pull the nomination off if the branch is sympathetic towards the effects people having to re-do the titular character from scratch after complaints. Maybe the branch will remember some animal movie like The One and Only Ivan or something. I'm only confident in Tenet here. UPDATE: After watching WW84, I'm removing it from my predictions and replacing it with The Invisible Man BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLINGBorat Subsequent Moviefilm Bill & Ted Face the Music Birds of Prey Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black BottomI'm a bit iffy on my own Ma Rainey prediction here but I guess the greasy makeup on Viola Davis will be memorable to voters. It may not seem like much but then again, it stands out, like the Joker makeup from last year. Borat and Bill & Ted seem like the only possible prosthetic-heavy nominees but I hope that this branch remembers I'm Thinking of Ending Things in which you can find both great prosthetics and very creatively comedic makeup too.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 27, 2020 16:05:19 GMT
Tenet: Cinematography, PD, Sound, VFX.
Mank: Cinematography, PD, Sound, Costumes.
That's pretty much all I care about...
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 27, 2020 19:48:03 GMT
My super early predictions (including a little wishful thinking in places) at the moment:
Cinematography: 1) Mank 2) Nomadland 3) News of the World 4) Da 5 Bloods 5) Minari
Costume Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Emma 3) Mank 4) The Boys in the Band 5) The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Film Editing: 1) Sound of Metal 2) Tenet 3) Judas and the Black Messiah 4) Nomadland 5) The Trial of the Chicago 7
Production Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Mank 3) The United States vs. Billie Holliday 4) One Night in Miami 5) The Boys in the Band
Sound: 1) Sound of Metal 2) Tenet 3) Wonder Woman 1984 4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 5) The Invisible Man
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 28, 2020 1:44:39 GMT
My super early predictions (including a little wishful thinking in places) at the moment: Cinematography: 1) Mank 2) Nomadland 3) News of the World 4) Da 5 Bloods 5) Minari Costume Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Emma 3) Mank 4) The Boys in the Band 5) The United States vs. Billie Holliday Film Editing: 1) Sound of Metal2) Tenet 3) Judas and the Black Messiah 4) Nomadland 5) The Trial of the Chicago 7 Production Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Mank 3) The United States vs. Billie Holliday 4) One Night in Miami 5) The Boys in the Band Sound: 1) Sound of Metal 2) Tenet 3) Wonder Woman 1984 4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 5) The Invisible Man I'm guessing this is the 'little bit of wishful thinking'.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 28, 2020 22:00:31 GMT
most confident least confident
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Mank The Midnight Sky News of the World Nomadland Tenet
Midnight Sky is a NGNG pick here but a VFX-driven sci-fi with wide praise for its visuals might be a stronger contender than folks are letting on, and that 5th spot is really up in the air right now. Mank, Nomadland, News of the World and Tenet feel relatively secure, but after that all bets are off. Minari? Da 5 Bloods? I'm Thinking of Ending Things? Judas and the Black Messiah? Ma Rainey? I went with Midnight Sky for the reasons above.
ORIGINAL SCORE Da 5 Bloods Mank The Midnight Sky Soul Tenet
Now this is a competitive category. Soul's eligibility is up in the air I guess because of the jazz compositions. Makes no sense to me esp. because what stands out the most in the score are the compositions clearly written by Reznor & Ross. The score should be a shoo-in just for the movie's non-jazz music. If it's eligible, I think it gets in. Weakest here feel like Tenet and Da 5 Bloods. Blanchard is also gonna be competing for One Night in Miama, and there's also Howard for News of the World and Moseri for Minari.
BEST EDITING Mank News of the World Nomadland Tenet The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank and Nomadland (in that order) are the ones I'm most confident about. Trial of the Chicago 7 seems strong too. Don't know enough about Ma Rainey or One Night in Miami to predict them here. It's always hard to gauge the tech potential of stagey films, esp. if you haven't seen them yet.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Emma Mank The Midnight Sky News of the World Personal History of David Copperfield
I'm doubling down on Midnight Sky probably too much. Tenet might have a better shot in prod. design but the branch loves their poorly-reviewed sci-fi flicks so I threw it in sight unseen. I have a hard time seeing one-set play adaptations like One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey play well here, but I haven't seen 'em yet so maybe those two sets are really something else. Mulan might be competitive here but you never know with these live-action Disney adaptations. Beauty and the Beast so far is the only one to be nominated in this category. Cinderella, Dumbo, Aladdin, and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil all missed despite receiving ADG nods.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Personal History of David Copperfield The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Billie Holiday and David Copperfield feel like the most vulnerable in a competitive field. Leaving out Mulan for the reasons mentioned above, and One Night in Miami for its small scale. Copperfield came and went without much notice so maybe not enough people have seen it, but I like its chances. Oscar-standby Mark Bridges will also be in the convo for News of the World (but you never can tell with these rugged western costumes). Billie Holiday makes my lineup because the branch loves that era and loves biopics, especially music biopics.
BEST MAKEUP Birds of Prey Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mulan
Never know to expect with this category.
BEST SOUND Mank The Midnight Sky Soul Sound of Metal Tenet
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Invisible Man The Midnight Sky Mulan Tenet Wonder Woman 1984
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 29, 2020 0:24:33 GMT
My super early predictions (including a little wishful thinking in places) at the moment: Cinematography: 1) Mank 2) Nomadland 3) News of the World 4) Da 5 Bloods 5) Minari Costume Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Emma 3) Mank 4) The Boys in the Band 5) The United States vs. Billie Holliday Film Editing: 1) Sound of Metal2) Tenet 3) Judas and the Black Messiah 4) Nomadland 5) The Trial of the Chicago 7 Production Design: 1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2) Mank 3) The United States vs. Billie Holliday 4) One Night in Miami 5) The Boys in the Band Sound: 1) Sound of Metal 2) Tenet 3) Wonder Woman 1984 4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 5) The Invisible Man I'm guessing this is the 'little bit of wishful thinking'. That's more ignorance, actually-- haven't seen Sound of Metal yet but kinda just assumed it would be similar to Whiplash lol The wishful thinking is including Boys in the Band in my Costume/Production Design lineups
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 29, 2020 2:13:53 GMT
I'm guessing this is the 'little bit of wishful thinking'. That's more ignorance, actually-- haven't seen Sound of Metal yet but kinda just assumed it would be similar to Whiplash lol The wishful thinking is including Boys in the Band in my Costume/Production Design lineups Yeah, Sound of Metal's editing is quite different to that of Whiplash. There is actually very little music playing depicted in the film.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 12, 2021 1:10:58 GMT
With all them shortlists and such, it's time for an update! BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYMank Nomadland Tenet News of the World MinariThe first four seem set but I simply do not know what in the heck to do with the fifth one. Gonna go with Minari for now - I've kinda lost a lot of confidence in Da 5 Bloods and Minari looks fairly good visually. Haven't seen it yet but I understand that there're plenty of pretty American landscape shots and an overall solid visual approach. I'll stick with it for now. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNMank Tenet News of the World The Personal History of David Copperfield EmmaFeels wrong to put David Copperfield here but the other options seem...wronger Mulan kinda sounds like a feasable option but I'm not predicting it in Costumes and I don't see it getting a lone PD nod. I've heard very good things about the work in The Father but is it really notable enough to sneak in here? I wish SPC could let me see it for myself! BEST EDITINGMank Nomadland The Trial of the Chicago 7 Promising Young Woman The FatherI can totally see Sound of Metal pop up here (and not because of some phantom connection to other music-related films but, on the contrary, for its steadily involving rhythm) but so far I'm feeling these ones. PYW feels like a big deal this season and I think its entertaining pace can certainly help it here. BEST ORIGINAL SCOREMank Tenet Da 5 Bloods News of the World SoulSticking with my initial prediction but Desplat is always there and Minari can get a breakthrough nod for its composer too. BEST COSTUME DESIGNMank Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom The Personal History of David Copperfield News of the WorldMkay, I'm succumbing to pressure and putting Ma Rainey here. I'm still iffy about it though! It's too damn limited so maybe Mulan replaces it. Or who the fuck knows, maybe Sandy Powell can get hers for The Glorias? She's kind of the only reason I wanna see that movie... BEST SOUNDMank Tenet Sound of Metal News of the World NomadlandYeah, I'm going with Nomadland based on that one tweet by our (once) own Will Mavity but I think it kinda makes sense. I feel confident in the four other movies here but that fifth spot seems wide open. There're a couple of war movies in contention, sure, but I feel that Nomadland's nature and atmosphere (at least that's what I'm assuming since I'll only be seeing it next week) and its frontrunner status can pull it through. Or maybe something like The Midnight Sky makes it. BEST VISUAL EFFECTSTenet The Midnight Sky Soul The One and Only Ivan Love and MonstersI was gonna go with Mank instead of Soul but fuck it, NGNG. Let it be the first CGI animated film to get a nod here...unless we count The Lion King...which I guess we should. Anyway, I feel that this branch can recognize it for the insane quality of the animation. Mank is all about invisible background stuff which never gets nominated here. Ivan and Monsters may seem like weird picks but it's important to remember that this branch tends to go with movies with the most CGI effects. CG animals and creatures are very much their thing. Welcome to Chechnya reminds me of Welcome to Marwen which apparently got a lot of praise for its concept but was ultimately snubbed (plus having seen some of its effects I really don't think this branch will vote for them strongly enough for a nomination). BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLINGPinocchio Mank Birds of Prey Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black BottomI don't quite know what's gonna win this category (HE?) but these seem like good bets for a nomination to me. Weird how this year this branch snubbed most of the prosthetic-heavy contenders.
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Post by JangoB on Mar 11, 2021 11:34:20 GMT
Let's give this a final run, shall we? BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYMank Nomadland News of the World Tenet Judas and the Black Messiah(alt: Cherry) First three are set but then it gets tough. I'll stay delusional and go with the stuff that makes the most sense to me in terms of quality, notability and prestige, BUT of course the ASC nominations are something to take seriously and I can totally see Cherry pop up here. Chicago 7 really doesn't seem like the movie this branch tends to go for but if it gets enough love across the board we can definitely end up with it here too. My NGNG prediction (and wish) would be Dear Comrades - the boxy B&W aesthetics have been embraced by this branch before and maybe it can happen again. I just don't know how much exposure it has among the voters. Then again, I didn't know about Cherry's exposure either and apparently it has been given a solid push. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNMank News of the World Tenet The Father Mulan(alt: Pinocchio) Only confident in the first two. Tenet can totally miss despite their love for Crowley because it's less obvious and perhaps too contemporary and location-oriented in terms of its achievement. Was initially thinking about Pinocchio (because of the ADG nod) but after watching it I'm not so sure. Finally settled on The Father but dammit it feels wrong. Still not seeing Ma Rainey here. BEST EDITINGThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Nomadland Mank The Father Sound of Metal(alt: Promising Young Woman) I initially had Promising Young Woman here but then decided to replace it with Sound of Metal. BEST ORIGINAL SCORESoul Mank News of the World Minari Tenet(alt: The Midnight Sky) Still believing and hoping for Ludwig not to get Justin Hurwitz-ed. Come on, AMPAS. Do not snub a score as awesome as this. Not really feeling Desplat this time. BEST COSTUME DESIGNMank Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mulan The Glorias(alt: Ammonite) Doesn't sound quite right but what the hell. I guess Mark Bridges can still pop up for News of the World (they sure love him) but I'll go with the colorful exoticism of Mulan and my NGNG pick will be The Glorias. Despite missing the guild, it's still Sandy Powell, it's still an enormous amount of work, and in addition all Julie Taymor movies have been nominated for costumes so why break the streak? BEST SOUNDSound of Metal News of the World Mank Greyhound Nomadland(alt: The Trial of the Chicago 7, then Tenet) Finally decided to drop Tenet...which I'm already regretting. But its lack of screeners and nominations will probably matter. Although it should be getting this nomination for the insane inverted sound work alone. Oh well, gonna go with Nomadland's nature sounds but Chicago 7 and its busy dialogue reel and the riot scenes sure make a lot of sense here too. BEST VISUAL EFFECTSTenet The Midnight Sky The One and Only Ivan Welcome to Chechnya Soul(alt: Love and Monsters) The tea from the bakeoff made me believe in the Chechnya nomination. The first two are safe, Ivan should be here for its CG animals (their favorite), and I'll stick with the NGNG Soul prediction. Hoping that Love and Monsters can sneak in Real Steel style. It sure deserves it. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLINGPinocchio Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Birds of Prey The Glorias(alt: Mank) Confident about the first three. Not confident in The Glorias but what the heck. Apparently there's prosthetic work there that the branch was surprised by at the bakeoff so I think it can make it here. Was gonna put Mank in its place but they don't really go for hairdo movies, do they? Snubs of movies like Hail Caesar and The Great Gatsby are quite telling, I think. BEST ORIGINAL SONG'Speak Now', One Night in Miami'Io Si (Seen)', The Life Ahead'Hear My Voice', The Trial of the Chicago 7'Never Break', Giving Voice'Turntables', All In: The Fight for Democracy(alt: 'Husavik', Eurovision Song Contest) 'Husavik' should be easily getting in here but I suspect it'll fall by the wayside similarly to songs like 'See You Again' and 'Drive It Like You Stole It' in favor of boring message shit.
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Post by wilcinema on Mar 11, 2021 13:08:06 GMT
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYMank Nomadland News of the World Dear Comrades Judas and the Black MessiahTenet didn't even send screeners so I think it's out at this point. Dear Comrades is a big bet but it's the kind of thing this branch likes. ASC miss was a big blow for Judas but it did make BAFTA. The other three are safe. I'm not ready to predict Chicago 7, quite frankly. BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNMank News of the World The Personal History of David Copperfield Mulan Ma Rainey’s Black BottomThis is another mess, the only locks are the first two. I think Ma Rainey makes it. Tenet not making BAFTA was a huge problem for it, despite the love for the designer. The other two I have are mere hunches. BEST EDITINGThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Nomadland Minari The Father Promising Young WomanI think Mank is in big trouble, it looks like the typical final snub here to me. I have no idea of what replaces it though. Maybe Sound of Metal, even though it would be a strange nom for a movie that isn't a Top 3 movie, because it's not showy, which is what this branch usually goes for. If Minari is reallt as strong as it seems (PGA+SAG+DGA), it might sneak in. BEST ORIGINAL SCORESoul Mank News of the World Minari The Midnight SkyThat last slot is hell, because both Goransson and Desplat are previous Oscar winners, and they are both in contention with movies with huge problems. I would lean towards Desplat because this branch loves him, but it could be easily Goransson, who would be more deserving. It could even be Pemberton for Chicago 7, but I doubt it. BEST COSTUME DESIGNMank Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mulan The GloriasI have the same as yours, though I somehow feel Judas is a possibility. BEST SOUNDSound of Metal News of the World Mank Greyhound NomadlandI don't think Mank is locked, but I'm not predicting a snub either. For the fifth slot, I would go with Nomadland just based on the strength of the movie itself. BEST VISUAL EFFECTSTenet The Midnight Sky The One and Only Ivan Welcome to Chechnya MankMank is the only "unsafe" prediction I have here. BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLINGPinocchio Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Glorias Emma
Mank has hit all the precursors, but for some reason I can't bring myself to predict it. This branch usually goes for MOST makeup, and these five seem perfect.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 11, 2021 14:59:59 GMT
I’d be really shocked at this point if TOTC7 didn’t get in for Cinematography.
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Post by JangoB on Mar 11, 2021 15:14:14 GMT
I’d be really shocked at this point if TOTC7 didn’t get in for Cinematography. It kind of reminds me of "The Imitation Game" - a fairly unremarkable looking movie getting an ASC nod but missing the Oscar lineup despite overall love for the film. Plus they snubbed Papamichael for "Ford v. Ferrari" which was a much showier thing so them suddenly falling head over heels for a much blander looking movie doesn't feel right. But then again, the year is rather empty so maybe the love for the film can propel it towards a nod, yeah.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 11, 2021 15:16:51 GMT
I’d be really shocked at this point if TOTC7 didn’t get in for Cinematography. It kind of reminds me of "The Imitation Game" - a fairly unremarkable looking movie getting an ASC nod but missing the Oscar lineup despite overall love for the film. Plus they snubbed Papamichael for "Ford v. Ferrari" which was a much showier thing so them suddenly falling head over heels for a much blander looking movie doesn't feel right. But then again, the year is rather empty so maybe the love for the film can propel it towards a nod, yeah. I’d much prefer Judas get in over it and everything you say makes sense, but I still feel it’s pretty safe for the 4th spot.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 11, 2021 22:28:14 GMT
final predix
CINEMATOGRAPHY 1. Nomadland 2. Mank 3. News of the World 4. Tenet 5. Judas and the Black Mesisah alt. Minari
COSTUME DESIGN 1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2. Emma 3. Mank 4. Mulan 5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday alt. News of the World for its drab dusters
FILM EDITING 1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 2. Mank 3. Nomadland 4. Sound of Metal 5. The Father alt. Judas and the Black Messiah
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 2. Hillbilly Elegy 3. Mank 4. Birds of Prey 5. Pinocchio alt. Emma
PRODUCTION DESIGN (this is gonna be so boring) 1. Mank 2. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 3. News of the World 4. Mulan 5. Tenet alt. Emma
ORIGINAL SCORE 1. Soul 2. Mank 3. News of the World 4. Minari 5. The Midnight Sky alt. Tenet
SONG 1. "Speak Now" 2. "Io Si" 3. "Fight for You" 4. "Hear My Voice" 5. "Husavik" alt. "Turntables"
SOUND 1. Sound of Metal 2. Mank 3. Soul 4. Tenet 5. Greyhound alt. News of the World
VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Tenet 2. The Midnight Sky 3. Mank 4. Birds of Prey 5. Mulan alt. The One and Only Ivan
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Post by JangoB on Mar 12, 2021 1:18:18 GMT
After thinking about it, I'm removing Promising Young Woman from Editing and replacing it with Sound of Metal.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 13, 2021 8:33:45 GMT
Cinematography Cherry Dear Comrades Mank News of the World Nomadland
Production Design Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Mulan News of the World Tenet
Editing Mank Nomadland Promising Young Woman Sound of Metal The Trial of the Chicago 7
Original Score Mank Minari News of the World Soul Tenet
Costume Design Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Mulan The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Sound Greyhound Mank News of the World Soul Sound of Metal
Visual Effects The Midnight Sky Mulan The One and Only Ivan Tenet Welcome to Chechnya
Makeup and Hairstyling Birds of Prey Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Pinocchio
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 13, 2021 11:43:10 GMT
I actually think Welcome to Chechnya might be a stealth contender for the VFX win.
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Post by JangoB on Mar 13, 2021 12:00:19 GMT
I actually think Welcome to Chechnya might be a stealth contender for the VFX win. In an Ex Machina sort of way? I dunno, let it get nominated first. And then for the win it'll take the whole Academy to vote for it and I'm just not sure that so many voters are gonna rush to watch a tough documentary about Chechnya. It seems to me that Tenet kind of has it in the bag.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 13, 2021 12:03:53 GMT
I actually think Welcome to Chechnya might be a stealth contender for the VFX win. In an Ex Machina sort of way? I dunno, let it get nominated first. And then for the win it'll take the whole Academy to vote for it and I'm just not sure that so many voters are gonna rush to watch a tough documentary about Chechnya. It seems to me that Tenet kind of has it in the bag. Tenet is still my prediction, but Chechnya is a strong dark horse. Tenet seems to be faltering everywhere and our (former) own Will Mavity said that Chechnya greatly impressed at the annual bakeoff. Tenet is still the safe bet but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Chechnya took it.
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Post by JangoB on Mar 13, 2021 12:08:27 GMT
In an Ex Machina sort of way? I dunno, let it get nominated first. And then for the win it'll take the whole Academy to vote for it and I'm just not sure that so many voters are gonna rush to watch a tough documentary about Chechnya. It seems to me that Tenet kind of has it in the bag. Tenet is still my prediction, but Chechnya is a strong dark horse. Tenet seems to be faltering everywhere and our (former) own Will Mavity said that Chechnya greatly impressed at the annual bakeoff. Tenet is still the safe bet but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Chechnya took it. Chechnya impressing at the bakeoff is good news for its nomination chances, sure (although quite recently Mavity was saying the same stuff about Welcome to Marwen and well...), but it takes a village to vote for the win and I just don't see the whole of AMPAS voting for it. Unless we have a shocking Ex Machina situation...fuck me, that win still remains a total mystery to me. Three Best Picture nominees, a Star Wars comeback movie...and an almost indie robot movie beats them. How did that happen
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Post by JangoB on Mar 13, 2021 12:10:37 GMT
OK, last minute tweaking: replacing "The Father" with "Mulan" in Production Design, and finally giving up on "Tenet" as far as Sound goes and replacing it with "Nomadland"...Let's see how it all works out.
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flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,828
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Post by flasuss on Mar 13, 2021 13:51:53 GMT
CINEMATOGRAPHY Dear Comrades Judas and the Black Messiah Mank News of the World Nomadland
COSTUME DESIGN Emma Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Mulan The Personal History of David Copperfield
FILM EDITING The Father Mank News of the World Nomadland The Trial of the Chicago 7
Not feeling particularly confident about Mank.
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Birds of Prey Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Hillbilly Elegy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Pinocchio
Mank is just not showy enough for this category.
ORIGINAL SCORE Mank Minari News of the World Soul Tenet
Not really feeling very confident about that Tenet pick at all.
PRODUCTION DESIGN Emma Mank Mulan Personal History of David Copperfield The United States vs. Billie Holiday
News of the World seems too outdoorsy for this, and Ma Rainey barely has any sets.
SONG "Fight for You" Hear My Voice" "Husavik" "Io Si" "Speak Now"
SOUND Greyhound News of the World Soul The Sound of Metal The United States vs. Billie Holiday
If the Sound of Metal doesn't even make this, I'm in favor of scrapping this category entirely, because it will be clear only the loudest movie wins.
I also don't know why people are so confident about Mank making this one.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Birds of Prey The Midnight Sky Mulan Tenet Wonder Woman 1984
Yeah, if Tenet can't even make here because of screeners, might as well shut down the whole branch (and I didn't even like the movie, but come on)
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Post by stephen on Mar 13, 2021 14:22:18 GMT
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Dear Comrades Mank News of the World Nomadland The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Father Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank News of the World The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Emma. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Mank Mulan The Personal History of David Copperfield
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn Hillbilly Elegy The Little Things Ma Rainey's Black Bottom Pinocchio
BEST EDITING: The Father Mank Nomadland Sound of Metal The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Mank The Midnight Sky The One and Only Ivan Tenet Welcome to Chechnya
BEST SOUND: Mank News of the World Nomadland Sound of Metal Soul
BEST SCORE: The Little Things Mank Minari News of the World Soul
BEST SONG: "Fight For You" ~ Judas and the Black Messiah "Husavik" ~ Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga "Io Si (Seen)" ~ The Life Ahead "Speak Now" ~ One Night in Miami... "Turntables" ~ All In: The Fight for Democracy
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 13, 2021 20:05:00 GMT
I actually think Welcome to Chechnya might be a stealth contender for the VFX win. It seems to me that Tenet kind of has it in the bag. If it does win, that would make it the third Nolan film to win the VFX Oscar out of four VFX nominations in total, which would be pretty cool. Since VFX is its best chance at winning something, losing would mean that it would be the first Nolan film to not win any Oscars after being nominated since The Prestige.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 14, 2021 1:44:57 GMT
I'm seeing a lot of people predicting Midnight Sky in Score, but I'm a little skeptical because while that branch does indeed love Desplat, he usually gets in for stronger films, plus he missed BAFTA this year. The only time he was nominated at the Oscars but not at BAFTA was for Philomena (and of course that was a BP nominee). Not really feeling him this year.
Goransson missed BAFTA too, but he also missed there in 2018 when he won at the Oscars that same year, so I feel like he's being slightly underestimated even though Tenet has been underperforming in other areas. Thomas Newman should of course never be underestimated too given his history of getting in for weaker films, so The Little Things could certainly happen here. It's just that Goransson's score is pretty unique among the others in contention, so I'm hoping that will help it and that the branch won't just namecheck a veteran who's already been recognized countless times already.
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