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Post by HELENA MARIA on Nov 18, 2020 12:32:31 GMT
No The Father in BP? Midnight Sky? Spike Lee? Firth? Pfeiffer? Murray AND Langella??? I don't see how you can have Supernova getting into picture and not a film with similar themes, The Father. The Father has better reviews, 2 Oscar winners leading it, one overdue for a 2nd and one that won a few years ago, and has a much better distributor. It has a legitimate shot at 2 acting wins whilst Supernova won't even be able to manage 2 noms. Da 5 Bloods too feels like such an afterthought, I really think its Lindo or bust for that film. Also Pfeiffer is so wildly DOA, I was shocked to see her in your Top 5. To be fair so are Buckley and Jones HELENA MARIA . Thanks for ruining the fantasy , you monster !
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Post by pupdurcs on Nov 18, 2020 12:57:15 GMT
Don't worry about it. We can all come across slightly different to others in written conversation than we assume in our heads. It's an occasional hazard of this form of communication . No harm, no foul. I agree, let's call this one a day for now Actually just one more quick thing, because we had this conversation a few months ago and I want to see if your answer has changed. Which film do you think will do better overall this awards season, The Father or Da 5 Bloods? No explanation needed, I just am curious It has changed. Right now, I'd probably say The Father based on a stronger probabiliyy of winning multiple above the line Oscars , because I'm not really seeing a path to any major wins right now for Da 5 Bloods (unless they quickly start reverse engineering a Spike Lee is overdue for a directing win narrative and it sticks a landing, but there are bigger director narratives out there, like Chloe Zhao becoming the first female winner since Kathryn Bigelow. So this probably isn't Spike's year). I could easily see Da 5 Bloods getting several nominations but winning nothing (kinda like The Irishman). Wheras Olivia Colman could actually win Best Supporting Actress (feels like her or Seyfried have the best shots now with Close and Hillbilly Elegy cratering). And while Anthony Hopkins has slipped behind Chadwick Boseman in Best Actor, he could still feasibly win somewhere like BAFTA and make it a contest (still can't see beyond a Boseman win right now, but Hopkins is probably next in line if anything goes wrong for Boseman's race). I do think Da 5 Bloods has a higher ceiling for more potential nominations than The Father, for whatever that is worth. Especially since it is a much more technical film, so will have more guild support in techs. But you know, things change. Ask me again in 2 months time and I may have switched again for reasons unknown to me right now
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Post by JangoB on Nov 18, 2020 13:07:12 GMT
I wonder if "Love and Monsters" can get a VFX nod.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Nov 18, 2020 13:07:26 GMT
You could definitely be right about Streep getting her filler position (she was absence from an Oscar nom for quite. a time now for her standards) but I dont see the film hitting big at all, in fact I think it might end up becoming this years big failure / disappointment. I could be wrong of course but as long as the reviews are not in and are widely positive I dont see it yet. Well, Clayton Davis from Variety and Pete Hammond from Deadline have already seen The Prom, and they both really like the film and seem very big on it's awards chances with both the Globes and Oscars . Now I concede they could just be both over-enthusiastic easy lays for Ryan Murphy, and critical consensus may end up differing from what they feel. But they do count as legit industry sources that have seen the film, so for now, their positive buzz on the movie is all we can really go on. Sounds indeed promising but not enough to convince me just yet. But yeah it will make a big splash at the Globes.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Nov 18, 2020 13:10:01 GMT
No The Father in BP? Midnight Sky? Spike Lee? Firth? Pfeiffer? Murray AND Langella??? I don't see how you can have Supernova getting into picture and not a film with similar themes, The Father. The Father has better reviews, 2 Oscar winners leading it, one overdue for a 2nd and one that won a few years ago, and has a much better distributor. It has a legitimate shot at 2 acting wins whilst Supernova won't even be able to manage 2 noms. Da 5 Bloods too feels like such an afterthought, I really think its Lindo or bust for that film. Also Pfeiffer is so wildly DOA, I was shocked to see her in your Top 5. To be fair so are Buckley and Jones HELENA MARIA . Well I could imagine a scenario where both The Father and Supernova make it. I actually consider The Father legit, and will probably have it replacing one of the films I have in my current predictions, in the next coming months. Why do you think Supernova will not manage two noms? I mean what speaks against Firth ? He has all it needs to be in serious consideration. Pfeiffer is so in for another nom. The film failed yes but the word for Pfeiffer is constantly great for it. I think so far she is one of the strongest contenders even if she is the sole nom for that film.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Nov 18, 2020 13:12:58 GMT
November predictions are way too early this year. I'll start the guessing game in about two months. Indeed. In a usual year I would start in August with my first predictions They will change throughout the next months, thats my usual process
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 18, 2020 13:34:20 GMT
No The Father in BP? Midnight Sky? Spike Lee? Firth? Pfeiffer? Murray AND Langella??? I don't see how you can have Supernova getting into picture and not a film with similar themes, The Father. The Father has better reviews, 2 Oscar winners leading it, one overdue for a 2nd and one that won a few years ago, and has a much better distributor. It has a legitimate shot at 2 acting wins whilst Supernova won't even be able to manage 2 noms. Da 5 Bloods too feels like such an afterthought, I really think its Lindo or bust for that film. Also Pfeiffer is so wildly DOA, I was shocked to see her in your Top 5. To be fair so are Buckley and Jones HELENA MARIA . Well I could imagine a scenario where both The Father and Supernova make it. I actually consider The Father legit, and will probably have it replacing one of the films I have in my current predictions, in the next coming months. Why do you think Supernova will not manage two noms? I mean what speaks against Firth ? He has all it needs to be in serious consideration. Pfeiffer is so in for another nom. The film failed yes but the word for Pfeiffer is constantly great for it. I think so far she is one of the strongest contenders even if she is the sole nom for that film. I wouldn't say that anything necessarily speaks against Firth (except for maybe the distributor), it's just that there are too many viable options ahead of him. Boseman, Hopkins, Lindo, Hanks, Oldman, Yeun, Ahmed, Holland and Kinglsey-Adir are all, for my money, ahead of Firth at the moment. I'm curious to know why you have so much faith in Firth though? While yes Pfeiffer has great personal reviews, the film itself is so DOA that it doesn't really matter. In a category as strong as Lead Actress is this year, she needed her film to be a) better reviewed and b) more widely seen, which isn't really going to happen since it's such a weird, off beat film that is relatively divisive. There is also the fact that I think SPC will pretty much solely focus on campaigning for The Father this year. Just like with Firth, there are just way too many contenders I have above her; Day, Davis, McDormand, Kirby, Mulligan, Streep, Winslet, Loren, Adams. Possibly even Moss.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 18, 2020 13:35:10 GMT
No The Father in BP? Midnight Sky? Spike Lee? Firth? Pfeiffer? Murray AND Langella??? I don't see how you can have Supernova getting into picture and not a film with similar themes, The Father. The Father has better reviews, 2 Oscar winners leading it, one overdue for a 2nd and one that won a few years ago, and has a much better distributor. It has a legitimate shot at 2 acting wins whilst Supernova won't even be able to manage 2 noms. Da 5 Bloods too feels like such an afterthought, I really think its Lindo or bust for that film. Also Pfeiffer is so wildly DOA, I was shocked to see her in your Top 5. To be fair so are Buckley and Jones HELENA MARIA . Thanks for ruining the fantasy , you monster ! Oh I'm right there with you, I wish those two were still in contention too
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