NOVEMBER PREDICTIONS

Streep will probably get her regularly scheduled filler nomination for The Prom, imho.

And I expect if her movie gets a solid reception, Andra Day is likely being nominated for playing Billie Holiday.

Don't see much buzz for Loren or Pfieffer.

I think Pfeiffer will profit from the "Overdue" bill/factor. 

I dont see Jones, although she was good as I dont think "On The Rocks" will go anywhere further than the Murray recognition. 
Buckley is possible but I think the film itself is just too out of the world for the Academy (although its my current favorite of the year)

I am very positive that "Supernova" will do very well, it has Oscar written all over it. At this point I think its pretty save. But yeah at this stage I will not spread out guarantees

Ronan is indeed a "wishful" thinking. I haven't seen the film but I love my annual Ronan treat at the Oscars. 

Sophia Loren fills two bills - the legendary & foreign bill. Lets see. She was fantastic indeed. 

Well, Clayton Davis from Variety and Pete Hammond from Deadline have already seen The Prom, and they both really like the film and seem very big on it's awards chances with both the Globes and Oscars . Now I concede they could just be both over-enthusiastic easy lays for Ryan Murphy, and critical consensus may end up differing from what they feel. But they do count as legit industry sources that have seen the film, so for now, their positive buzz on the movie is all we can really go on. 

Da 5 Bloods is really helped by some supposed BP candidates not being as big with critics as possibly excpected. It is still the second highest rated film in the race on Metacritic (of films with more than 20 reviews to date) after Nomadland. Mank is on 79. The Trial Of The Chicago 7 is on 76. I'm suprised there is any passion for Chicago 7 at all, as it's such a mid-tier thing with critics and I expected Mank to be a much bigger, less divisive critical juggernaut, closer to Nomadland.

Da 5 Bloods is on 82. People tend to use Metacritic every year to ascertain BP probability, so it's a bit odd now that Da 5 Blood is doing much better on Metacritic than some supposed frontrunners that people aren't acknowledging it may be stronger in the race than presumed, despite being the oldest contender on release. It needed some big contenders to underperform critically, and they have.

Also, Chadwick Boseman is in real play for  a supporting actor nod for Da 5 Bloods. He's undeniable for a Best Actor nod in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom based on reactions, but Netflix are also pushing hard for him to get double nominations, and the sentiment is clearly there for it to happen. I don't believe it's unlikely that Boseman can get double nominated either, which would be a remarkable tribute by the industry to him. So it's in real play for more than one acting nod, beyond Lindo.

my predictions are worthless but why the hell not

BEST PICTURE
1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. One Night in Miami
5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
6. The Father
7. News of the World
8. Minari
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. Soul

BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher - Mank
2. Chloe Zhao - Nomadland
3. Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Florian Zeller - The Father
5. Regina King - One Night in Miami

BEST ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
3. Frances McDormand - Nomadland
4. Kate Winslet - Ammonite
5. Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST ACTOR
1. Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins - The Father
3. Gary Oldman - Mank
4. Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
5. Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
*if Kaluuya goes supporting, I'll say Steven Yeun takes the 5th spot for Minari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
2. Olivia Colman, The Father
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (she can probably get in despite the reviews)
5. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. David Strathairn, Nomadland
5. Stanley Tucci, Supernova

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. News of the World

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Minari
3. Soul
4. Mank
5. Da 5 Bloods

November predictions are way too early this year. I'll start the guessing game in about two months.

The problem I have with your argument that it has the 2nd best reviews out of the contenders and that other films aren't as bigger critical darlings as you thought is inherently tied to its release. Da 5 Bloods came out months ago so everyone has already seen it. Most of the potential big contenders either a) have only screened for select critics so far or b) no one has even seen yet. So yes, it has pretty good reviews but over the coming months the film is more than likely going to fall further and further down the Metacritic list. Plus there is the issue of Netflix's priorities. They will 100% push Mank, TTOTC7 and Ma Rainey ahead of it at the very least. Then they still have to juggle Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Midnight Sky and Hillbilly Elegy. That is quite a lot on their plate for them to focus on a film that feels like it kind of came and went with no real prospects outside of Lindo (I don't buy Boseman getting double noms for a sec). Of course it is only November so who the fuck knows, but just my 2 cents 

Nope. Mank (absolutely one of the biggest contenders) is on 79 on Metacritic with 33 reviews. This isn't Rotten Tomatoes, where we can expect hundreds more reviews. It's almost maxed out. It's score is not going to change that much in either direction, as not many more reviews will be added. If anything, it's score is probably more likely to drop with the dozen or so reviews left to be added. The only real big contender left that we need to see a decent sampling of reviews from is probably News Of The World.

Trial Of The Chicago is on 76  on Metacritic with 47 reviews. It is not going to get any better. Why on earth would Netflix prioritise it over one of the best reviewed films of the year (Da 5 Bloods) with a locked in Best Actor nomination and a strong potenial supporting actor nomination, directed by one of the most respected auteurs in the business (Spike Lee), fresh off a recent Best Picture and Best Director nomination for Blackklansman (and an Adapted Screenplay Oscar win for Lee) for an Aaron Sorkin drama with comparatively so-so reviews? 

I'm trying to figure the logic in that. Lee just recently came off a huge year in just about every major category with his last film with the Academy, and suddenly he's less of a  Oscar priority for Netflix for a film with lesser  reviews by a screenwriter who is yet to be percieved as a  major director (even most of his nominations for Molly's Game were for his screenplay, not his directing. Billy Wilder he ain't). Make it make sense.

Of course they will try to get nods for Chicago 7. But other than it being released later, it has zero advantadge over Da 5 Bloods. The reviews just weren't amazing enough to declare that Netflix will prioritise it over Da 5 Boods. Why people are also choosing to ignore that Lee has also just come off Blackklansman and has never had more cache or popularity with AMPAS at any point of his career than now, is beyond me. These things matter.

Also, you don't have to buy Boseman getting double nods. But the fact that major industry publications like The Wrap are writing whole articles about the possibility, means that there is a movement to make it happen (most likely backed agressively by Netflix), that would be idiotic to ignore:




Feels like some wishful thinking going on in terms of the changing realities of the race, but we'll see.

Critics honestly don't mean all that much, especially lately. Jojo Rabbit and Joker both had metacritic scores in the 50s and performed much better than Marriage Story and Little Women which were critical blowouts (and let's not even talk about Green Book). Parasite didn't win because the critics liked it, it won because everyone and their dog liked it.

I wasn't talking about Mank when I mentioned that we have small sample sizes on some major contenders. In an earlier post you mentioned that "Da 5 Bloods has the 2nd best reviews out of films with 20 or more reviews", so let's look at that. That means we're still waiting on a bigger sample size for films such The Father, Soul, Minari, One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and we haven't even gotten a single review yet for News of the World, The United States vs. Billie Holliday or Judas and the Black Messiah (if it comes out in time). I'm not saying that many of these films have the potential to win but they can all very quickly fill up those remaining BP slots after Mank, Nomadland and TTOTC7. Also you keep on talking about the Metacritic numbers for Trial and Mank as if they are drastically behind Da 5 Bloods, were in actuality 76 v 79 v 82 isn't really that much of a difference. 

"But other than it being released later, TTOTC7 has zero advantage over Da 5 Bloods". I mean yeah sure, other than the fact that it is way more crowd pleasing and panders to basic members of the Academy a whole lot more. And also the fact that it will most likely get 2 acting nominations and has a much better chance of winning one than Da 5 Bloods does. Studios prioritise films based on how they think they will do in the awards season. Netflix doesn’t care that Lee is more of an acclaimed director than Sorkin, if the writing is on the wall they will go with the more surefire contender regardless.

Oh come on, publications like The Wrap mean jack shit. The other day I saw an article about how Borat 2 has a good chance of getting nominated for more than just Bakalova. They are at the point of the race where they are throwing things at the wall to see what sticks and writing articles that they know are going to get them a lot of clicks. When Clayton fucking Davis is the head awards guy for one of the major trades, you should know to take them with a huge grain of salt.

What do you mean by "wishful thinking"? You mean on my end? Because Da 5 Bloods is my #2 of the year and I would love to see it succeed but sadly I have to be realistic. Da 5 Bloods is a film that hasn't grabbed the interest of general audiences and came out very early in an extended awards race. When the dust settles there will be 8-10 legit contenders with better reviews so you can throw that argument out the window. If you want to throw terms around like 'wishful thinking' go for it, but just know that your posts sound like a hardcore Spike Lee stan who is desperately trying to convince themselves that the film is in a much better position than it is.

Oh wow, I genuinely wasn't expecting a response like this because I didn't think my post would come across like that. I wasn't trying to personally attack you and if you feel that way, then I am genuinely sorry. If anything, my last little paragraph was just matching the tone of your posts as some of the stuff you said came across, for me personally, as quite snide and passive-aggressive. But anyway, I'm all good with dropping this discussion for now in case it takes a wrong turn. 

And yes, it took me 4 hours to reply, was chilling with the fam. Sorry to disappoint