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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:57:33 GMT
with 20% of PA's votes in, Biden only has a 5-point lead.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:59:41 GMT
with 20% of PA's votes in, Biden only has a 5-point lead.with 25% of PA's votes in, Biden and Trump are tied
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:05:46 GMT
AZ: 60% of the vote is in, Biden has a 13-point lead. The question is how much will that shrink.
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Post by cheesecake on Nov 4, 2020 3:06:28 GMT
I'm gonna be sick.
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Post by Lord_Buscemi on Nov 4, 2020 3:07:47 GMT
Shit is kicking off in D.C.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:11:37 GMT
If Trump wins again... what the fuck does 2024 look like? If ever there was going to be an administration that would push the country back towards the Obama-era left, you'd think it'd be this one. If Trump, one of the most extremist candidates in recent memory, can win after 4 really messy and divisive years, how the hell can a blue candidate win in 2024 against (presumably) a less fucking insane red candidate?
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 3:13:51 GMT
Let’s be honest guys....the Hispanics who have been discriminated, deported, caged up and treated them like total pieces of shit have all gone and voted for the same guy....I mean really? It’s fucking unbelievably embarrassing but also not surprising either. Their whole agenda was the “socialism” Biden would bring...that’s it. That’s fucking it. Regardless of the end result, we know what this country is now and what it stands for — no democracy, no morals, no incentive to defund the police. Trump got what he wanted and that’s a divisive, hateful, racist degenerate shithole country that the whole world is laughing at, and rightly so too. I feel fucking sick.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 4, 2020 3:19:30 GMT
If Trump wins again... what the fuck does 2024 look like? If ever there was going to be an administration that would push the country back towards the Obama-era left, you'd think it'd be this one. If Trump, one of the most extremist candidates in recent memory, can win after 4 really messy and divisive years, how the hell can a blue candidate win in 2024 against (presumably) a less fucking insane red candidate? If he wins - you have to start seeing him as a historical figure like Obama was - like I don't have the numbers but has he got the most African Americans and Hispanics than any Republican ever? If so, that's just shocking.......he may be like Obama where the Republicans can't run anyone that's like him again.......like I said last week, crowds chanting "We love you" in the freezing cold is a Trump thing not a Republican thing .......
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:19:30 GMT
Let’s be honest guys....the Hispanics who have been discriminated, deported, caged up and treated them like total pieces of shit have all gone and voted for the same guy....I mean really? Only in Florida though right? Cubans have always been conservative, and presumably Trump's macho shtick might've helped him with some Latino and black men in the state. I'll be curious to see what Trump's results with these demos look like in the rest of the southeast and sunbelt but Cuban-Americans have always been trouble for dems. Deeply ingrained cultural shit there. "Socialism" & "communism" are easy fucking triggers with that group.
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Lubezki
Based
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 3:26:27 GMT
Let’s be honest guys....the Hispanics who have been discriminated, deported, caged up and treated them like total pieces of shit have all gone and voted for the same guy....I mean really? Only in Florida though right? Cubans have always been conservative, and presumably Trump's macho shtick might've helped him with some Latino and black men in the state. I'll be curious to see what Trump's results with these demos look like in the rest of the southeast and sunbelt but Cuban-Americans have always been trouble for dems. Deeply ingrained cultural shit there. "Socialism" & "communism" are easy fucking triggers with that group. Absolutely the Cuban-Americans in Florida (the worst fucking place on Earth btw....why does this cesspool of a place even exist?) But they’ve also spread to many other parts of the country. And not just Cubans; Puerto Ricans are another huge Latino community and a lot of them are huge Trump supporters.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:28:29 GMT
Biden still holding onto a 9-point lead in AZ with over 70% of the votes in
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Lubezki
Based
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 3:30:52 GMT
If Trump wins again... what the fuck does 2024 look like? If ever there was going to be an administration that would push the country back towards the Obama-era left, you'd think it'd be this one. If Trump, one of the most extremist candidates in recent memory, can win after 4 really messy and divisive years, how the hell can a blue candidate win in 2024 against (presumably) a less fucking insane red candidate? If he wins - you have to start seeing him as a historical figure like Obama was - like I don't have the numbers but has he got the most African Americans and Hispanics than any Republican ever? If so, that's just shocking.......he may be like Obama where the Republicans can't run anyone that's like him again.......like I said last week, crowds chanting "We love you" in the freezing cold is a Trump thing not a Republican thing ....... *Uncle Tom’s Fixed that for you.
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LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
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Post by LaraQ on Nov 4, 2020 3:32:33 GMT
Fucking hell.This is not going the way I expected it to.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:33:29 GMT
ok, now the VA results are looking less insane. Most of the state is heavily red and the bluest counties in northern VA have been reporting fewer results. Trump's lead down to 6 points with 56% in, so I assume Biden will carry the state by a minimum of 3 points, which would still be pretty terrible IMO but early vote counts are projected to trend up towards the end of the count so maybe he at least matches Clinton's 5-point 2016 lead.
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 4, 2020 3:33:57 GMT
If Trump wins again... what the fuck does 2024 look like? If ever there was going to be an administration that would push the country back towards the Obama-era left, you'd think it'd be this one. If Trump, one of the most extremist candidates in recent memory, can win after 4 really messy and divisive years, how the hell can a blue candidate win in 2024 against (presumably) a less fucking insane red candidate? AOC 2024
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:48:15 GMT
if Trump roughly holds onto his current 6.8 lead in Ohio (if not expands it), that'd be another pretty high polling error and a marginally worse result from his 8-point 2016 blowout. Almost 90% of the votes are in... So maybe the lesson here is take the polls and subtract 5-10 points in favor of GOP
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:55:03 GMT
Biden's doing well in Iowa: 51% of the votes are in and he's winning by 13 points. How much will it shrink... pre-election forecasts had it as a toss-up state and it feels like polling error has been favoring Trump tonight so I won't be surprised to see Biden's lead evaporate and disappear before the 80% count margin. I'm assuming the lead is due to early voting and/or absentee ballots and if that's the case you can expect a red shift.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 3:59:23 GMT
Biden's been killing it in Colorado. If he can win there by 8-10 points that'd be one state where the polls were close. Nate Smith indicated an hour or so ago that a big win there might bode well for Biden's chances in Arizona, and Biden's chances in Arizona are looking pretty decent right now.
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Post by Kings_Requiem on Nov 4, 2020 4:06:12 GMT
Unless Biden can get one of these states that are leaning red at the moment (Pennsylvania, Ohio or Michigan) and maybe even two of them, then it's over... close, but no cigar, unfortunately.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 4:08:38 GMT
Biden's been killing it in Colorado. If he can win there by 8-10 points that'd be one state where the polls were close. Nate Smith indicated an hour or so ago that a big win there might bode well for Biden's chances in Arizona, and Biden's chances in Arizona are looking pretty decent right now. He’s doing well in the West Coast for sure. He won in Nebraska too (1 Electoral vote lol....could be big though)
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Nov 4, 2020 4:09:07 GMT
The fact that this race is as close as it is, shows that democrats need to make a huge fucking change. Obviously Biden can still win, but oh my. Enough of this neoliberal platform bs.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 4:09:55 GMT
Unless Biden can get one of these states that are leaning red at the moment (Pennsylvania, Ohio or Michigan) and maybe even two of them, then it's over... close, but no cigar, unfortunately. the mail-in votes that will be counted sometime tomorrow might sway in Biden’s favour.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 4:20:50 GMT
well, already Biden's lead in Iowa has shrunk to 2 points with less than 70% of the vote in, so pretty much par for the fucking course. Presumably Trump will win it by at least 5 points if they counted the absentee/early vote first, so yet another polling error.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 4:29:10 GMT
Unless Biden can get one of these states that are leaning red at the moment (Pennsylvania, Ohio or Michigan) and maybe even two of them, then it's over... close, but no cigar, unfortunately. the mail-in votes that will be counted sometime tomorrow might sway in Biden’s favour. there will be blue shifts tomorrow when mail-in ballots are counted in some of the midwest states, especially PA and Michigan. And very few of Philadelphia's votes have been counted so far which will be blue for both in-person and absentee ballots presumably. But at this point I'm doubting it'll be enough. Trump seems to have outperformed in Ohio which shares a lot of similarities with large chunks of PA. Not positive Biden will lose WI, PA, and MI yet, but there does seem to be a trend that Trump is overperforming with his base and polling error is largely favoring him. If a 6 to 8-point polling error is happening in Ohio, there's a solid chance you'll see similar polling errors in those midwest states. It already looks like Iowa is headed for a substantial polling error.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Nov 4, 2020 4:54:01 GMT
Winning AZ is a big win for Biden. We’ll see if it can help him over the line.
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