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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 0:34:47 GMT
North Carolina and Ohio polls just closed
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 0:38:01 GMT
New York Times needle has Trump with a 94% chance of winning Florida
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 0:43:47 GMT
37% in FL now, Biden leading by 4 points Maybe I’m wrong, but this isn’t a good sign for Biden as Florida immediately counts the early votes, right? Miami Dade is counting in-person early votes first so we might see a bump for Biden when they start counting the mail-in ballots.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:08:46 GMT
a fourth of the votes in VA have been reported and Trump is winning by over 20 points... what the fuck.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 4, 2020 1:13:51 GMT
Watching CNN as well. Only US channel I get over here. Also have the 538 live blog as well as some maps to compare 2016 vote to the numbers we get right now. The numbers are still early in Ohio, but so far it looks like Biden could do significantly better here than Clinton. However Trumps "antisocialism" message seems have been convincing to the Latinos in Florida.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 4, 2020 1:14:26 GMT
a fourth of the votes in VA have been reported and Trump is winning by over 20 points... what the fuck. That's really weird indeed.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:15:20 GMT
with 85% of the FL vote in it looks like Trump is starting to pull away. NYT needle is projecting him to win by over 3 points.
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Post by stephen on Nov 4, 2020 1:24:35 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:26:46 GMT
nearly 50% of votes from Ohio counted, Biden still leading by 14 points.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:30:28 GMT
Trump STILL leading VA by 20 points with over 30% counted. I know the geographical majority of VA is GOP-leaning so maybe they just haven't counted the ballots from the blue hotspots yet, but I'm freaking out slightly.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:31:54 GMT
NYT needles projecting Trump to win Georgia by 5 points which would be a nearly 7-point polling error.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 4, 2020 1:33:38 GMT
Biden seems to clearly outperform Clinton in North Carolina. Clearly more votes than her in the two biggest counties. 9 point advantage with over 60 percent of votes counted. But don't know how the votes are counted there. I remember from senate votes and also 2016 election that Republicans seem to get the late votes in the counts.
On the down side Trump closes the gap in Ohio. 10 points only.
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Post by stabcaesar on Nov 4, 2020 1:49:22 GMT
According to the polls Biden was winning on a landslide. Even if he wins I doubt anyone would call this a landslide.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 1:50:03 GMT
Biden's lead in NC has narrowed to 6 points with 30% of the vote still to be counted
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:01:41 GMT
I'm wondering if Biden's strong performance relative to Clinton in Ohio so far might be indicative of a stronger showing in the midwest. Trump is underperforming in several counties so far in Ohio and Biden is over-performing in several relative to 2016.
also curious how Florida bodes for the rest of the sunbelt. Wasn't really indicative of the national mood in the 2018 midterms but then, the NYT needle has Trump likely to win in NC and GA too, and Trump is likely to win in Texas so that makes we wonder what's going to happen in Arizona...
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 4, 2020 2:15:42 GMT
I'm wondering if Biden's strong performance relative to Clinton in Ohio so far might be indicative of a stronger showing in the midwest. Trump is underperforming in several counties so far in Ohio and Biden is over-performing in several relative to 2016. also curious how Florida bodes for the rest of the sunbelt. Wasn't really indicative of the national mood in the 2018 midterms but then, the NYT needle has Trump likely to win in NC and GA too, and Trump is likely to win in Texas so that makes we wonder what's going to happen in Arizona... Nate Silver wrote a bit earlier, that he noted some very good performing of Biden (much better than Clinton) in some counties in Kansas, which could be an indicator for good performing in midwest. As for Georgia I never thought Biden was going to have a chance there. The NC lead is down to 2,7 with 78 % of votes. Ohio vanishes as well, despite some very good numbers, but most of the early counted votes there were absentees.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:21:00 GMT
god I hate these prediction models. 538 gave Biden a 89% before the polls opened, but it always fuckin feels like dems can never be comfortable about those numbers. Meanwhile, the NYT needle is currently giving Trump an 88% of taking North Carolina and it feels like a kick in the stomach.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:29:30 GMT
can dems get some polling error once in a while? please??
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Post by stabcaesar on Nov 4, 2020 2:31:43 GMT
Lots of betting sites are favouring Trump now. It's ridiculous how inaccurate the polls were.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:39:45 GMT
Lots of betting sites are favouring Trump now. It's ridiculous how inaccurate the polls were. betting markets have always been bullish on Trump's chances relative to the pollsters and prognosticators. Trump's potential wins in the southeast are all within normal polling errors (except GA but we have to wait and see) and might be region-specific. Have to wait and see what happens in the midwest and Arizona.
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Post by stabcaesar on Nov 4, 2020 2:42:48 GMT
Lots of betting sites are favouring Trump now. It's ridiculous how inaccurate the polls were. betting markets have always been bullish on Trump's chances relative to the pollsters and prognosticators. Trump's potential wins in the southeast are all within normal polling errors (except GA but we have to wait and see) and might be region-specific. Have to wait and see what happens in the midwest and Arizona. Except those betting sites were betting on Biden to win by a huge margin just a few hours ago.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:46:03 GMT
betting markets have always been bullish on Trump's chances relative to the pollsters and prognosticators. Trump's potential wins in the southeast are all within normal polling errors (except GA but we have to wait and see) and might be region-specific. Have to wait and see what happens in the midwest and Arizona. Except those betting sites were betting on Biden to win by a huge margin just a few hours ago. which ones? I saw a lot of betting markets giving Trump between a 30%-60% chance in the last couple weeks of October.
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Post by stabcaesar on Nov 4, 2020 2:47:34 GMT
There's more but i'm too lazy to find the links.
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Post by Sharbs on Nov 4, 2020 2:52:13 GMT
CNN is behind on OH, 74% and a 2.1 point lead for Trump
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 4, 2020 2:56:26 GMT
I hate the predictability of watching these numbers trickle in. You know Biden will have early leads in the southeast and in Ohio and you know that lead will get slimmer and slimmer until it eventually disappears as more of the vote comes in. It's torture.
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