I wouldn't write Regina King off for a nod. She's riding a huge wave of popularity. I remember people here didn't think she would win the Oscar, in the absence of a SAG or BAFTA nod.
Honestly, that win was obtained just because of a lot of luck and timing.
Despite her missing lots of precursors, there was complete lack of passion towards the other contenders, no matter how deserving they were (hell, they even decided to give the SAG to Emily Blunt for an horror movie!!) Weisz was perfect in The Favourite, but the movie was too weird and quirky for the voters, and they clearly didn't want to reward for the first time someone like Amy Adams for a supporting role as Cheney's wife, especially after the shocking snub for Arrival.
So basically the lightning never strikes twice, so I don't think she'll win Screenplay or get a nomination in Directing.
There is so much misinformation in the above.
First of all, Regina King is not a screen writer for ONIM. She did not miss "lots of precursors" for IBSCT. She won GG, BFCA and dominated the critics awards. How was TF weird and quirky for voters when Olivia Colman won and the film had 10 nods?
In as far as luck and timing - that is part of winning.
Your comment about lightning never strikes twice doesn't even make any sense.