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Post by madmonsterparty on Sept 23, 2020 18:21:07 GMT
To tell you the truth, I hadn’t really thought about this one until recently with it’s second place showing with the People’s Choice Award a few days ago. Is there a chance here? Or is the Toronto Film Festival going to be near the peak of this movies buzz? Thanks for comments and opinions in advance!!!  |
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 23, 2020 19:10:57 GMT
Considering that it's a play adaptation I'm expecting notices for the acting and screenplay, and possibly a stealth nod for King in directing if the film is really big awards-wise. And I'm confident it winds up in the Best Picture lineup, but obviously a lot can change before then.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2020 19:26:07 GMT
I'm thinking MAR is overrating it......maybe not......but in general there are a lot of plays this year already (The Father, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) and basically they'll under perform - maybe not all - but in BP someone has to get left out......then next year Macbeth which in theory may get nods in actress/actor and Picture and director but history isn't on its side either.......and that one is by far the biggest deal
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Post by franklin on Sept 23, 2020 19:41:42 GMT
I think Picture and Screenplay noms, then that's it.
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Post by Martin Stett on Sept 23, 2020 22:29:13 GMT
Best picture nod
Best director nod
Best actor (or supporting actor) nod for the guy playing Ali - I don't know anything about the movie or who is in it, sorry
Best screenplay nod
A random nod for costume design or something
Possibly winning one of those. I think it'll be solid.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2020 2:21:55 GMT
Picture
Supporting Actor (no idea who though)
Screenplay
Song
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 24, 2020 5:25:47 GMT
Maybe no nods at all or just one for screenplay.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 24, 2020 15:01:44 GMT
I’m currently predicting it for Picture, Supporting Actor (Kingsley Ben-Adir), Adapted Screenplay and Original Song. I think it’s also a likely SAG ensemble winner.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Sept 24, 2020 16:43:23 GMT
All of them.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 24, 2020 17:00:23 GMT
Picture
Director
Supporting Actor - Kingsley Ben-Adir (but any of the other could be threats too)
Screenplay
Song
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 24, 2020 17:31:04 GMT
I think if a first time director who is directing a stage adaptation gets into Director, its going to be Florian Zeller.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 24, 2020 17:45:26 GMT
I think if a first time director who is directing a stage adaptation gets into Director, its going to be Florian Zeller. sight unseen I agree with this. I think The Father is going to be a big deal, not just for Hopkins and Colman. And what looks to be Zeller's cerebral approach to dementia (almost like Zeller's playing mind games with the viewer) is the kind of cinematic showiness voters are going to want to recognize whereas reviews of this film have emphasized its stinginess. I think it gets the Fences treatment, which was also very stagey. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 24, 2020 18:25:12 GMT
I think it'll get Picture and Screenplay nods, but I think King's not going to break into Best Director as it's lately been very tough for actors to jump into that field and get recognized for it, and I think Supporting Actor is so packed that it'll be tough for anyone to muscle in without standout notices. There's an Original Song as well, no? Throw that in as well.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 25, 2020 2:24:17 GMT
Maybe they will make Ben-Adir their main acting push because Odom Jr. will already be getting a nom for Song.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 28, 2020 17:00:57 GMT
I think if a first time director who is directing a stage adaptation gets into Director, its going to be Florian Zeller. Like me, Variety is predicting both of them getting in. It looks likelier now that Anderson has dropped out of the race. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 28, 2020 17:17:49 GMT
I think if a first time director who is directing a stage adaptation gets into Director, its going to be Florian Zeller. Like me, Variety is predicting both of them getting in. It looks likelier now that Anderson has dropped out of the race. Bold prediction. Even with Anderson out of the race I still have King outside the Top 5. Fincher Greengrass Villeneuve Zeller Zhao Sorkin King |
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Sept 29, 2020 1:01:56 GMT
Thinking it over, reviews do seem strong enough, that it wouldn't surprise me if it got in best picture, best supporting actor for Adir, best screenplay, and best original song. Not sure about director for King, though. Will have to see how the rest of the season shapes-up first.
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Post by quetee on Sept 29, 2020 4:55:47 GMT
Right now, I'm going with Picture/A. Screenplay/S. Actor
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Sept 29, 2020 15:43:09 GMT
I wouldn't write Regina King off for a nod. She's riding a huge wave of popularity. I remember people here didn't think she would win the Oscar, in the absence of a SAG or BAFTA nod.
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Post by stephen on Sept 29, 2020 15:45:17 GMT
I wouldn't write Regina King off for a nod. She's riding a huge wave of popularity. I remember people here didn't think she would win the Oscar, in the absence of a SAG or BAFTA nod. Because people think precursors are some sort of unbreakable trend. King's popularity is at a peak, but the directors' branch is notoriously picky when it comes to actors jumping into their milieu, especially in their debut. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 29, 2020 16:07:09 GMT
Like me, Variety is predicting both of them getting in. It looks likelier now that Anderson has dropped out of the race. Bold prediction. Even with Anderson out of the race I still have King outside the Top 5. Fincher Greengrass Villeneuve Zeller Zhao Sorkin King I think it's much bolder to predict Villeneuve actually, as much as I love him. |
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Post by quetee on Sept 30, 2020 3:47:28 GMT
I wouldn't write Regina King off for a nod. She's riding a huge wave of popularity. I remember people here didn't think she would win the Oscar, in the absence of a SAG or BAFTA nod. True, I'm basing my decision on the fact that the movie looks stagey. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 30, 2020 6:25:44 GMT
Maybe I have underestimated it...
It might get quite a few nods actually.
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Post by franklin on Sept 30, 2020 11:12:01 GMT
I wouldn't write Regina King off for a nod. She's riding a huge wave of popularity. I remember people here didn't think she would win the Oscar, in the absence of a SAG or BAFTA nod. Honestly, that win was obtained just because of a lot of luck and timing. Despite her missing lots of precursors, there was complete lack of passion towards the other contenders, no matter how deserving they were (hell, they even decided to give the SAG to Emily Blunt for an horror movie!!) Weisz was perfect in The Favourite, but the movie was too weird and quirky for the voters, and they clearly didn't want to reward for the first time someone like Amy Adams for a supporting role as Cheney's wife, especially after the shocking snub for Arrival. So basically the lightning never strikes twice, so I don't think she'll win Screenplay or get a nomination in Directing. |
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 30, 2020 11:44:12 GMT
Weisz was perfect in The Favourite, but the movie was too weird and quirky for the voters Yet they awarded Olivia Colman for the same film which got the most nominations of all films that year tied Roma. Logic? |
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