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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 18, 2020 16:59:14 GMT
Thought this would be fun to discuss but we won't know if anyone is actually right for 20+ years so please periodically check back in!  At the bottom of this post you have a breakout of the way that the Oscar nomination landscape has changed over 30 years. Ronan is the 2nd youngest to 4 nods ever (behind Lawrence) but you would think has a higher upside than Lawrence in baity projects and she may contend this year again ........ Driver is the most acclaimed American stage and screen actor (does both) at this age in quite some time right? 2 Oscar nods in a row, a Volpi Cup, 6 Triple Crown nominations (no wins yet) already - that's a ton actually for a male movie star at only 36 now - compare him with any of the movie GOATs and see how he compares - it's quite a shock actually. Do we have right now 2 of the all-time greatest actors in our presence in these 2 or is it a house of cards waiting to collapse for them? Is either a threat to be in the all time top 3 for Oscar nods say when all is said and done with their careers? Comments encouraged....... 1991 Oscar Totals
Olivier 10 (held the top spot for 19 years)
Tracy, Nicholson 9
Brando, Lemmon 8
Newman, O’Toole 7
Pacino, DeNiro, Hoffman 6
2020 Oscar Totals
Nicholson 12 (holds top spot for 23 years currently)
Olivier 10
Tracy, Newman, Pacino 9
Lemmon, Brando, O’Toole, Washington 8
Hoffman, Bridges, De Niro, Duvall....... Hanks (pending this year) 7
Bubbling under: DiCaprio 6, Driver 2 (36 years old)
1991 Oscar Totals
Hepburn 12 (held the top spot for 22 years)
Davis 10
Streep 9
Page 8
2020 Oscar Totals
Streep 21 (holds top spot for 17 years currently)
Hepburn 12
Davis 10
Page 8
Bubbling under: Blanchett 7, Winslet 7, Close 7, Ronan 4 (26 years old)
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 18, 2020 18:43:13 GMT
I don’t know about Driver being an all time contender because that’s a pretty tough feat, but I think he should continue to do well for himself. Can see him winning an Oscar and an Emmy, and maybe a Tony if he does more Broadway. I think he wants to do more theater work, but I think he wanted success in the film world first which is why he only returned there last year after the success of Star Wars and getting his first Oscar nomination.
No doubt in my mind that Ronan will be an all time contender, so I voted that they both will be as I see Driver being more of a contender then hitting a wall unless you mean with just Oscar nominations which I could see happening to Driver. Career wise though I don’t think he’ll hit a wall. I’m sure he’ll have his ups and downs, but I think overall he’ll be fine. I can see him with at least 6-8 Oscar nominations if he continues to work at the pace he does now with at least one win. He’s too old to set any records of most nominations unlike Ronan who should at least tie Hepburn’s, but if he continues to work in film that could mean at least another 40 years of work, probably more, so I think he could at least earn another nomination a decade. What I see happening is that he’ll continue to rack up nominations until he finally wins, and then I could see things slowing down, but still I think at least 4 more nominations is doable with maybe 6 more nominations being at the really high end.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 18, 2020 22:17:12 GMT
I don’t know about Driver being an all time contender because that’s a pretty tough feat, but I think he should continue to do well for himself. Can see him winning an Oscar and an Emmy, and maybe a Tony if he does more Broadway. I think he wants to do more theater work, but I think he wanted success in the film world first which is why he only returned there last year after the success of Star Wars and getting his first Oscar nomination. No doubt in my mind that Ronan will be an all time contender, so I voted that they both will be as I see Driver being more of a contender then hitting a wall unless you mean with just Oscar nominations which I could see happening to Driver. Career wise though I don’t think he’ll hit a wall. I’m sure he’ll have his ups and downs, but I think overall he’ll be fine. I can see him with at least 6-8 Oscar nominations if he continues to work at the pace he does now with at least one win. He’s too old to set any records of most nominations unlike Ronan who should at least tie Hepburn’s, but if he continues to work in film that could mean at least another 40 years of work, probably more, so I think he could at least earn another nomination a decade. What I see happening is that he’ll continue to rack up nominations until he finally wins, and then I could see things slowing down, but still I think at least 4 more nominations is doable with maybe 6 more nominations being at the really high end. Well 6-8 total nominations would be a marvelous career - I think he's fascinating from a career POV and operates in several interesting and unique niches : a US theater/film star - there's at least one in every generation if you look at American film history (except the actors in their 40s currently really - Cooper has a Tony nod though I'm not sure his heart is in it) and I also could see Driver being part of a prestige director/actor combo with those directors who are also in the theater (Lonergan, Sam Mendes, McDonagh etc).......he has a lot of room to move there with what he chooses. I am really blown away by his 6 Triple Crown nods - I actually think that's a new type of category stat we'll notice more going forward - we'll see him a lot at awards shows besides just the Oscars and that kind of thing is where the Arts are going imo. Driver could win a Triple Crown and he could win it quick while he's young sort of like Jeremy Irons who did it at just 49 and only has 1 Oscar nod (and 1 win) total..... |
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Post by futuretrunks on Jul 18, 2020 22:57:19 GMT
I think I need to see how Driver acquits himself in more high profile prestige roles before I can make my mind up. He just doesn't feel to me like he has either star charisma, or genius acting talent radiating off of him, and I think that's why he's had to settle so often for smaller parts for major directors. There's something consistently goofy about him, and while it served him very well on Girls (where I first noticed him), as a Hollywood leading man, it's probably going to hold him back, as I don't see a precedent among 7+ nod types.
Saoirse will probably continue to accrue hardware, but the pace will slow down if she doesn't start picking more challenging roles (for her). Even people like Streep/Winslet who've done considerable amounts of period piece stuff haven't relied solely on that (see Adaptation., Eternal Sunshine, Steve Jobs, Prada, etc.) Saoirse is becoming too associated with a certain type of movie, regardless of the quality of it (I'm a big fan of Atonement and Little Women, so I'm not saying stop doing period pieces, just do other things too - broad comedies, crime dramas, contemporary romance, thrillers, etc.).
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Post by stephen on Jul 18, 2020 23:15:52 GMT
Driver is very much the new flavor of the month, and now is the time to capitalize upon it. He's clearly hungry for it, and his offbeat looks actually serve him very well to play both compelling leads (if not necessarily boilerplate ones) and odd characters. If anything, I think Driver is very much going to fill the void left by Joaquin Phoenix now that Joaquin's pushing fifty. Imagine Driver in any of Joaquin's 2010s output -- The Master, Her, The Immigrant, You Were Never Really Here, Joker -- and I can see him acquitting himself very well. He's already an arthouse darling, and all he really needs is for one of the big guns to take him on as a leading role. The Coens have worked with him before and I see no reason they can't work him into a leading role at some point a la Turturro, a PTA collaboration seems all but inevitable, and I think if he'd swapped roles in Silence with Garfield it would've worked better. I think Driver's next five years will tell the tale; he'll either burn out like Oscar Isaac, or he'll become the guy. He's definitely showing his versatility in terms of the medium, and he's the sort of guy I could see getting one or two of the triple crown in very short order.
Ronan's racking dem nods up real nicely, and while I thought five years ago it would be Lawrence at the top of the food chain for their generation, seems Saoirse's pipped her to the post and could easily stake a claim at being the top dog (though I think Emma Stone really is the challenger to look out for, and her Irish homegirl Jessie Buckley is gunning for Ronan's crown. An Oscar win seems inevitable just by sheer dint of Ronan's longevity, and likely within the next few years . . . but honestly, I think the longer they steer clear of anointing her, it might keep her hungry enough to keep pursuing good parts and they keep nominating her, and that might build her rep nicely.
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Post by countjohn on Jul 19, 2020 1:48:12 GMT
Ronan's on a pace to be the next Streep (maybe not that many nods, but you know what I mean) and that seems to be her career aspiration. She hasn't shown much interest in franchises or anything commercial lately (or in her upcoming projects) and seems to want to just churn out solid dramas. That's also a ticket for longevity, you can still do movies like that when you're old. She already should have won for Atonement and Brooklyn and Little Women would have been perfectly respectable wins as well.
Driver's just never impressed me that much in anything. He hasn't been bad, I just think he's fine. He's going to have to show me a lot more before I even think about him in the context of an all time anything.
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