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Post by Joaquim on Jun 25, 2020 22:50:02 GMT
His base doesn't care though. Isn't that part of the problem? His base only makes up about 30% of the country, though. His base votes in large numbers, though. They may be 30% of the country but they make up more than 30% of ppl who are actually gonna vote
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2020 1:42:52 GMT
His base only makes up about 30% of the country, though. His base votes in large numbers, though. They may be 30% of the country but they make up more than 30% of ppl who are actually gonna vote Yes, that's definitely true. But I disagree that Biden needs to be worried about Trump's "attacks." "Sleepy Joe"? I'm sure he's shaking. As a straight white man, Trump can't "other" him the way he did Obama and Clinton - that's really the only card he knows how to play, and recent actions don't really show him being interested in learning new campaign tactics (i.e. going back to baseless claims that Obama committed treason).
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Post by Joaquim on Jun 26, 2020 2:49:47 GMT
His base votes in large numbers, though. They may be 30% of the country but they make up more than 30% of ppl who are actually gonna vote Yes, that's definitely true. But I disagree that Biden needs to be worried about Trump's "attacks." "Sleepy Joe"? I'm sure he's shaking. As a straight white man, Trump can't "other" him the way he did Obama and Clinton - that's really the only card he knows how to play, and recent actions don't really show him being interested in learning new campaign tactics (i.e. going back to baseless claims that Obama committed treason). He’s gonna attack Biden for his mental health and has already teased at it. Really think once the debates come he’s gonna make Jeb! look like child’s play. I’d like to be wrong
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2020 3:27:37 GMT
Yes, that's definitely true. But I disagree that Biden needs to be worried about Trump's "attacks." "Sleepy Joe"? I'm sure he's shaking. As a straight white man, Trump can't "other" him the way he did Obama and Clinton - that's really the only card he knows how to play, and recent actions don't really show him being interested in learning new campaign tactics (i.e. going back to baseless claims that Obama committed treason). He’s gonna attack Biden for his mental health and has already teased at it. Really think once the debates come he’s gonna make Jeb! look like child’s play. I’d like to be wrong Yeah... Not sure how much that's going to stick, either. It's quite obvious that happy, healthy people don't behave in the way Trump does, and factor in that he can't walk down a ramp or hold a glass of water, and...
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jun 26, 2020 11:55:02 GMT
No
He has lost his base support by letting the riots run amok
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Post by urbanpatrician on Jun 26, 2020 13:01:46 GMT
I'd like to see the sample size of those pretty early polls being conducted. Most I'm seeing have an n=3000 going into my probability textbook here. Come on now.... 3000 people?
I'm thinking there's a few ways he can win the presidency again. Trump campaigns and rallies have proven to be helpful. If he wants to rile up the nationalist zealots in high rural states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and leave no doubt he'll win there, he should start with that bloc, and then refocus on Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Problem is, given the current climate I'm not seeing lots of room for nationalist uprisings. This election has no foreign context to it, no threat from overseas. At least George Bush riled up the anti-Islamics in 2004 who obviously hated Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein's guts. If Trump ran in 2004, he would've won EASILY. He's way better at uprisings, and admist the climate of anti-Islamic sentiments in 2004 those nationalist zealots would've packed the house.
Good thing about Covid-19 is that the perception about it changes bi-monthly. By November, will it even be an issue anymore? All those things can help Trump because Covid-19 is not a permanently lingering thing and his economy before that was awesome. I think, however, I do agree that Covid-19 has really done a negative on him, and but if he can rebound in the next 4 months and put that behind him.... maybe he wins over Biden on most of the other areas?... I don't know. Covid-19 is obviously the leading issue right now, but if Trump can re-elect himself on the basis of his economy and promise that the economy will rebound to that of the pre-Covid-19 form, I think he has a great chance. I think his campaign should be based on that, in fact - and I think he needs to REALLY sell his economy much like how Obama sold his killing of Bin Laden back in 2012.
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Post by Joaquim on Jun 26, 2020 13:52:11 GMT
No He has lost of his base support by letting the riots run amok He’s hasn’t lost his base. If trump told his base to attack the rioters, he wouldn’t have to ask them twice
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Post by quetee on Jun 26, 2020 16:37:00 GMT
No He has lost of his base support by letting the riots run amok He’s hasn’t lost his base. If trump told his base to attack the rioters, he wouldn’t have to ask them twice And sprinkle in some racist bullshit across all boards. He likes to remind his base as well as low key people that he hates certain groups.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jun 26, 2020 17:05:56 GMT
He’s hasn’t lost his base. If trump told his base to attack the rioters, he wouldn’t have to ask them twice And sprinkle in some racist bullshit across all boards. He likes to remind his base as well as low key people that he hates certain groups. He’s leaning back into the racism quite heavily recently.
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Post by quetee on Jun 26, 2020 17:14:23 GMT
And sprinkle in some racist bullshit across all boards. He likes to remind his base as well as low key people that he hates certain groups. He’s leaning back into the racism quite heavily recently. He has to relapse into that cause his base loves it. Look at what he has done or said just in the last week: Kung Flu Called out majority black cities by stating they are hell. Not allowing foreigners in. Bad mouthing the peaceful protesters. Being critical of Transgenders. Talking about the wall.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 27, 2020 19:35:11 GMT
Good thing about Covid-19 is that the perception about it changes bi-monthly. By November, will it even be an issue anymore? Well we're testing more positive cases than ever 2-3 weeks after the riots started and with everything opening up again without even beating the first wave so yes, I'm positive it will still be an issue in November.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Jun 27, 2020 21:03:55 GMT
Good thing about Covid-19 is that the perception about it changes bi-monthly. By November, will it even be an issue anymore? Well we're testing more positive cases than ever 2-3 weeks after the riots started and with everything opening up again without even beating the first wave so yes, I'm positive it will still be an issue in November. That's your opinion, I happen to disagree. And I judge those stats differently than you, obviously. Otherwise I can easily count back 4 months and 7 days to today which was Feb 20th........ where I never imagined the country would be on shutdown.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 29, 2020 20:22:06 GMT
Well, in case it wasn't already obvious (honestly not following this shit too closely--I'd lose my mind) Biden has Virginia in the bag at least. I hadn't realized Northam overturned the Voter ID laws until today when I got an email about those changes going into effect (which is so surreal btw because I've been voting for almost 8 years and have gotten used to the immutable barrage of "Photo ID required" signs). This is going to be huge for Biden, who's already dominating in the polls anyways, and democratic candidates at large across all races for the foreseeable future. Virginia seems to be staying blue for now.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 2, 2020 16:52:38 GMT
This is literally a Republicans worst nightmare - economy is ahead of pace or at least can be spun this way for June (I know you can argue it) - with no positive impact it seems and as Trump lags further in polls. That's how out of the race he appears to be - if the economy can't spike him........he can't be spiked. U.S. economy gains 4.8 million jobs, unemployment rate falls to 11.1 percentwww.nbcnews.com/business/economy/u-s-economy-gains-4-8-million-jobs-unemployment-rate-n1232746
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Post by Joaquim on Jul 3, 2020 23:43:50 GMT
This is literally a Republicans worst nightmare - economy is ahead of pace or at least can be spun this way for June (I know you can argue it) - with no positive impact it seems and as Trump lags further in polls. That's how out of the race he appears to be - if the economy can't spike him........he can't be spiked. U.S. economy gains 4.8 million jobs, unemployment rate falls to 11.1 percentwww.nbcnews.com/business/economy/u-s-economy-gains-4-8-million-jobs-unemployment-rate-n1232746Shhhhh weren’t not supposed to talk about that. Just look at the roaring stock market racing towards ATHs
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 5, 2020 21:21:17 GMT
so Trump's approval seems to be holding steady around 40.5% which is recoverable unless it dips further, which is possible if Covid continues to spiral out of control and I think that's where we're heading with these reopining-fueled spikes in red states (there's going to come a point when his less radical followers start dropping out of the fold while Biden is strongly situated with the protests and calls for police reform to energize progressive voters without alienating his middle class base). Another thing: Trump's disapproval is only one point (and a little change) below his 57% highpoints in 2017 (also race-related issues). With Covid raging and continuing to threaten the economy, I don't know how he makes up these numbers. What path does he have left? He already has the angry white vote but that's not going to be enough against Biden's numbers. Biden is looking really good right now. He's crushing Clinton's numbers and is currently ahead in all the swing states (by double digits in some) and has surpassed the 50% total, which Clinton never had. Another reality that has to be acknowledged here: if Biden had run in 2016 he likely would have won. Trump's greatest advantage last election was going against Clinton (woman, Check; unlikable/controversial, Check; no charisma, Check; unpopular with liberals and women, Check; hated by conservatives and misogynists and conservative/misogynistic evangelicals, Check). The numbers reflect the difference. Trump simply isn't going to be able to mobilize hatred against Biden the way he did with Clinton. The party's mishandling of Bernie in 2016 was another huge misstep because it totally isolated all those voters while incurring their wrath online. I'm sure there will still be a huge contingent of Bernie bros who don't vote for the party this time either (they don't really vote anyways, lol), but there isn't a narrative in 2020 about Biden stealing the candidacy like in 2016 with Clinton. i'm going insane
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Post by quetee on Jul 5, 2020 21:25:07 GMT
added jobs = furloughed went back to work.
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Post by morton on Jul 5, 2020 21:29:58 GMT
so Trump's approval seems to be holding steady around 40.5% which is recoverable unless it dips further, which is possible if Covid continues to spiral out of control and I think that's where we're heading with these reopining-fueled spikes in red states (there's going to come a point when his less radical followers start dropping out of the fold while Biden is strongly situated with the protests and calls for police reform to energize progressive voters without alienating his middle class base). Another thing: Trump's disapproval is only one point (and a little change) below his 57% highpoints in 2017 (also race-related issues). With Covid raging and continuing to threaten the economy, I don't know how he makes up these numbers. What path does he have left? He already has the angry white vote but that's not going to be enough against Biden's numbers. Biden is looking really good right now. He's crushing Clinton's numbers and is currently ahead in all the swing states (by double digits in some) and has surpassed the 50% total, which Clinton never had. Another reality that has to be acknowledged here: if Biden had run in 2016 he likely would have won. Trump's greatest advantage last election was going against Clinton (woman, Check; unlikable/controversial, Check; no charisma, Check; unpopular with liberals and women, Check; hated by conservatives and misogynists and conservative/misogynistic evangelicals, Check). The numbers reflect the difference. Trump simply isn't going to be able to mobilize hatred against Biden the way he did with Clinton. The party's mishandling of Bernie in 2016 was another huge misstep because it totally isolated all those voters while incurring their wrath online. I'm sure there will still be a huge contingent of Bernie bros who don't vote for the party this time either (they don't really vote anyways, lol), but there isn't a narrative in 2020 about Biden stealing the candidacy like in 2016 with Clinton. i'm going insane Oh please let this come true. I won’t take an easy breath until it finally happens because the Dems can always find a way to lose. Also while I don’t think that anyone would have been as much of a uniter as Biden has turned out to be, it’s sort of funny how it seemed like he didn’t have to do much for the nomination, and because of how crazy 2020 has been, he’s been able, at least so far, for Trump to implode with the way he’s handled the pandemic with Pence taking to even wearing a mask.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jul 5, 2020 22:04:58 GMT
so Trump's approval seems to be holding steady around 40.5% which is recoverable unless it dips further, which is possible if Covid continues to spiral out of control and I think that's where we're heading with these reopining-fueled spikes in red states (there's going to come a point when his less radical followers start dropping out of the fold while Biden is strongly situated with the protests and calls for police reform to energize progressive voters without alienating his middle class base). Another thing: Trump's disapproval is only one point (and a little change) below his 57% highpoints in 2017 (also race-related issues). With Covid raging and continuing to threaten the economy, I don't know how he makes up these numbers. What path does he have left? He already has the angry white vote but that's not going to be enough against Biden's numbers. Biden is looking really good right now. He's crushing Clinton's numbers and is currently ahead in all the swing states (by double digits in some) and has surpassed the 50% total, which Clinton never had. Another reality that has to be acknowledged here: if Biden had run in 2016 he likely would have won. Trump's greatest advantage last election was going against Clinton (woman, Check; unlikable/controversial, Check; no charisma, Check; unpopular with liberals and women, Check; hated by conservatives and misogynists and conservative/misogynistic evangelicals, Check). The numbers reflect the difference. Trump simply isn't going to be able to mobilize hatred against Biden the way he did with Clinton. The party's mishandling of Bernie in 2016 was another huge misstep because it totally isolated all those voters while incurring their wrath online. I'm sure there will still be a huge contingent of Bernie bros who don't vote for the party this time either (they don't really vote anyways, lol), but there isn't a narrative in 2020 about Biden stealing the candidacy like in 2016 with Clinton. i'm going insane Oh please let this come true. I won’t take an easy breath until it finally happens because the Dems can always find a way to lose. Also while I don’t think that anyone would have been as much of a uniter as Biden has turned out to be, it’s sort of funny how it seemed like he didn’t have to do much for the nomination, and because of how crazy 2020 has been, he’s been able, at least so far, for Trump to implode with the way he’s handled the pandemic with Pence taking to even wearing a mask. It helps that Trump is turning off everyone who isn't his base. His response to the pandemic is a legit disaster, and isn't doing him any favors. It's also exposing him as the selfish weak ineffective leader that anyone with half a brain could tell he was. Sure he could improve, presidents and losing candidates always have bounces in the poll leading up to the election, but everything right now suggests he's in for the worst reelection numbers for a losing president since Jimmy Carter, and I couldn't be happier about it.
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Post by quetee on Jul 5, 2020 22:30:00 GMT
Oh please let this come true. I won’t take an easy breath until it finally happens because the Dems can always find a way to lose. Also while I don’t think that anyone would have been as much of a uniter as Biden has turned out to be, it’s sort of funny how it seemed like he didn’t have to do much for the nomination, and because of how crazy 2020 has been, he’s been able, at least so far, for Trump to implode with the way he’s handled the pandemic with Pence taking to even wearing a mask. It helps that Trump is turning off everyone who isn't his base. His response to the pandemic is a legit disaster, and isn't doing him any favors. It's also exposing him as the selfish weak ineffective leader that anyone with half a brain could tell he was. Sure he could improve, presidents and losing candidates always have bounces in the poll leading up to the election, but everything right now suggests he's in for the worst reelection numbers for a losing president since Jimmy Carter, and I couldn't be happier about it. I'm still trying to figure out why people thought he would be good anyway. He's a horrible businessman and lives off of loans. I guess people don't care as long as it lines their own pockets.
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Post by jimmalone on Jul 6, 2020 9:21:40 GMT
Another reality that has to be acknowledged here: if Biden had run in 2016 he likely would have won. Trump's greatest advantage last election was going against Clinton (woman, Check; unlikable/controversial, Check; no charisma, Check; unpopular with liberals and women, Check; hated by conservatives and misogynists and conservative/misogynistic evangelicals, Check). The numbers reflect the difference. Trump simply isn't going to be able to mobilize hatred against Biden the way he did with Clinton. The party's mishandling of Bernie in 2016 was another huge misstep because it totally isolated all those voters while incurring their wrath online. I'm sure there will still be a huge contingent of Bernie bros who don't vote for the party this time either (they don't really vote anyways, lol), but there isn't a narrative in 2020 about Biden stealing the candidacy like in 2016 with Clinton.
I pretty much agree about this. I think Biden will gain much more votes of older white men than Hillary did and this might be enough already.
I think right now Biden has just to avoid some huge mistakes, then he should be the favourite to win. But yeah, it's still early.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2020 1:38:44 GMT
I had almost forgotten what a President is supposed to sound like... This is such a breath of fresh air.
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Post by dazed on Jul 15, 2020 15:59:25 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 15, 2020 17:19:17 GMT
Not according to these polls - it's all Joe - all the time .....big time: Texas - Trump +2 North Carolina - Biden +1 Florida - Biden +7 Pennsylvania - Biden +8 (or +13 in one poll) Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona - Biden +6 in allwww.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2020 13:15:11 GMT
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