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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 30, 2020 2:32:29 GMT
So I currently live in Texas, but am still registered to vote in North Carolina, and I mailed in my absentee ballot on Oct 15, but it still hasn't been received. I called yesterday and they said to wait a couple more days and call back if it still hasn't been received yet. Wondering if I need to make an impromptu trip to NC next week... Ballot was finally accepted today, which is a relief, but I've been seeing a bunch of other people experiencing problems mailing theirs in. Glad I didn't wait until this week to do it... glad to hear it man!
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Oct 30, 2020 18:21:56 GMT
I’m worried. This is genuinely revving my anxiety into overdrive.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 30, 2020 19:06:16 GMT
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 30, 2020 19:31:15 GMT
I’m worried. This is genuinely revving my anxiety into overdrive. I hear you man, but Trump's only chance is if millions of mail-in ballots get thrown out. Dems are fired up to vote and have been turning out in record numbers, including voters of color in key sun belt states. The more people that vote, the likelier the blue candidate wins, that's always been the case and we're seeing A LOT of people voting. Clinton was losing whites without a college degree by 37% in 2016... Biden is losing them by 23% (and that's only one demo). Trump's base has shrunk and he hasn't won over nearly enough independents to make up the difference (and there are much fewer this year anyways). I don't want to jinx myself by saying Biden's got this but common sense says the numbers won't be on Trump's side. They can't be. take whatever comfort you can from these numbers, and vote!! (if you haven't already): Trump's current odds of winning: 10% Chances that Biden wins popular vote but loses Electoral College: 7% Chances that Biden wins in a landslide (double digits): 29% Chances the election hinges on a recount: 4% projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 31, 2020 0:19:41 GMT
Instead of betting on trump to win the election at +130 odds, I put my money on him winning the popular vote at +450
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 31, 2020 7:30:20 GMT
some reassuring new polls showing Biden up by I'm sure we'll be getting high-quality poll results from PA soon. If Biden can bring his average back up to 6 or 6.5 I'll sleep a lot easier.
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Post by jimmalone on Oct 31, 2020 8:22:58 GMT
some reassuring new polls showing Biden up by If that's true and I saw Monmouth and Marist are rated very highly by 538 that would be great news. If Biden would be able to win Florida he should have the win in his bag. Still I think Florida will be extremely close.
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 31, 2020 15:31:10 GMT
Can not confirm the authenticity of the numbers but it looks like trump is actually winning early voting in Florida. If that’s true, Florida is solid red this election
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erickeitel
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The beauty of life is in small details, not in big events.
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Post by erickeitel on Oct 31, 2020 16:18:35 GMT
I’m worried. This is genuinely revving my anxiety into overdrive. I don't feel safe regardless, because the Republicans will not simply concede and walk away if defeated. A Democratic election means a Trumpist resistance, and who knows what that would entail...
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Oct 31, 2020 17:12:08 GMT
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 1, 2020 2:06:50 GMT
Instead of betting on trump to win the election at +130 odds, I put my money on him winning the popular vote at +450 Win the popular vote... do you just enjoy tossing money away?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 1, 2020 3:44:48 GMT
and people have the nerve to talk about shy Trump voters lol. Texas has seen record turnout. Don't know if Biden can take it but shit like this is only going to alienate anyone in Trump's pool that isn't MAGA-brainfucked and energize those that already hate him. Dems are excited to vote precisely because of bullshit like this. Democracy is clapping back on Nov 3rd.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 1, 2020 3:55:07 GMT
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Post by Joaquim on Nov 1, 2020 5:18:44 GMT
Instead of betting on trump to win the election at +130 odds, I put my money on him winning the popular vote at +450 Win the popular vote... do you just enjoy tossing money away? Hi, Matt, long time no talk. And to answer your question, yes.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 1, 2020 5:30:07 GMT
recent polls from ABC News/Washington Post and Muhlenberg College have Biden up 4-7 points in PA. Too close for comfort. I'm assuming Siena/NYT will have one last round of PA polling so we'll have to wait and see...
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Post by pendragon on Nov 1, 2020 6:02:23 GMT
I'm less worried about polls than I am about stuff like this:
Trump has said multiple times that he wants the courts to throw out ballots and hand him the election and Republicans are doing everything they can to make it happen.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 1, 2020 11:50:41 GMT
and people have the nerve to talk about shy Trump voters lol. Texas has seen record turnout. Don't know if Biden can take it but shit like this is only going to alienate anyone in Trump's pool that isn't MAGA-brainfucked and energize those that already hate him. Dems are excited to vote precisely because of bullshit like this. Democracy is clapping back on Nov 3rd. But still is a scenario that a high turnout of votes could be good for Trump that implausible? I know that historically this has mostly always helped the Democrats. But I could imagine that many people, who are tired from the usual government habits or establishment and usually don't vote, because they even don't care for the one or other classic side, could overcome their moderateness and will vote to get their "different candidate" through once again, as the polls clearly sign into the direction, that he will lose. Not saying this is probable, but I wouldn't rule it out.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 1, 2020 11:58:11 GMT
This is the crowd he got in Butler, Pa yesterday October 31 .....I've been to Butler, Pa and .......um let's just say, this an astonishingly large crowd "more than 10,000" my news just said - I'd say a whole lot more than that..........for a state he's going to likely lose......said it before, I'll say it again........Donald Trump wins, America is fncked.......Joe Biden wins, America is fncked. But if it's Biden, it's not like things are going to "heal" in America for a loooooooooooooooooong time.........People who love Trump really love him......people who hate him at least match that.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 1, 2020 15:32:07 GMT
Trump has said multiple times that he wants the courts to throw out ballots and hand him the election and Republicans are doing everything they can to make it happen. yeah they're trying to throw out 127K legal votes from Harris County in Texas and they'll likely get it done because all the judges potentially going to hear this case are shameless partisans. That stuff scares me for sure and it's the most blatant expression of voter suppression we've seen so far. Over a hundred thousand votes from a largely black and democratic county just because they can. It's sickening. But this is precisely why I'm watching polls because if Biden can take PA by more than 4 points which the polls are showing (most recent Siena/NYT poll has him up by 6) then litigation isn't going to matter. If Biden only wins by half a point, then we'll be in trouble.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2020 22:42:17 GMT
Trump has said multiple times that he wants the courts to throw out ballots and hand him the election and Republicans are doing everything they can to make it happen. yeah they're trying to throw out 127K legal votes from Harris County in Texas and they'll likely get it done because all the judges potentially going to hear this case are shameless partisans. That stuff scares me for sure and it's the most blatant expression of voter suppression we've seen so far. Over a hundred thousand votes from a largely black and democratic county just because they can. It's sickening. But this is precisely why I'm watching polls because if Biden can take PA by more than 4 points which the polls are showing (most recent Siena/NYT poll has him up by 6) then litigation isn't going to matter. If Biden only wins by half a point, then we'll be in trouble. The Texas Supreme Court has just rejected this ridiculous case, thank God.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 1, 2020 22:51:05 GMT
yeah they're trying to throw out 127K legal votes from Harris County in Texas and they'll likely get it done because all the judges potentially going to hear this case are shameless partisans. That stuff scares me for sure and it's the most blatant expression of voter suppression we've seen so far. Over a hundred thousand votes from a largely black and democratic county just because they can. It's sickening. But this is precisely why I'm watching polls because if Biden can take PA by more than 4 points which the polls are showing (most recent Siena/NYT poll has him up by 6) then litigation isn't going to matter. If Biden only wins by half a point, then we'll be in trouble. The Texas Supreme Court has just rejected this case, thank God.On the other hand this case is still at risk we'll know for sure tomorrow........ But Sunday’s court ruling does not definitively resolve the matter since a federal judge will hear a similar case from the same group of Republicans in an emergency hearing on Monday.
U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, a George W. Bush appointee, committed on Friday to hearing the case which could result in about 10 percent of all in-person early voting ballots in the county not counting, The Texas Tribune reported. thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/523861-texas-supreme-court-rejects-gop-bid-to-void-100000-votes
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2020 23:00:59 GMT
The Texas Supreme Court has just rejected this case, thank God. On the other hand this case is still at risk we'll know for sure tomorrow........ But Sunday’s court ruling does not definitively resolve the matter since a federal judge will hear a similar case from the same group of Republicans in an emergency hearing on Monday.
U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, a George W. Bush appointee, committed on Friday to hearing the case which could result in about 10 percent of all in-person early voting ballots in the county not counting, The Texas Tribune reported. thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/523861-texas-supreme-court-rejects-gop-bid-to-void-100000-votesWell... At least it’s a Bush-appointee and not one of Agent Orange’s cronies. That’s all I’ve got.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 1, 2020 23:18:46 GMT
The Texas Supreme Court has just rejected this ridiculous case, thank God. yeah pacinoyes beat me to it. Good for the GOP Texas supreme court for tossing out this blatant attempt to literally steal 130K legal votes but I'm more worried about Andrew Hanen who I assume supersedes the state legislature but I have no idea honestly, and from what I've seen he sounds like a hardline conservative extremist. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals would be the next in line and they're even worse.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Nov 2, 2020 2:18:10 GMT
praying for some decrepit chode to not let mass voter fraud happen so that we can still pretend we live in a democracy...
anyways vote green or burn something down
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2020 15:17:37 GMT
Instead of lying and cheating and stealing, maybe the GOP could, you know, come up with some policies that actually appeal to people. Just a thought...
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