Chances Bill Murray is nominated this year?

Possibly. It seems like a great premise, and it seems like it's time for Sophia Coppola to have a comeback.

Plus, Murray did that charity showdown with Guy Fieri just a few days ago. Even though it was on Facebook, not sure if Food Network is going to show it later, it was a pretty cool idea I think; although I wish there had been actual tasting of the food involved because even though I'm sure it was scripted to go a certain way which is fine because it was for charity, but if it was more like an actual food tasting contest, for me I don't think it would have seemed as obvious that it was scripted.

There's also usually at least one acting nominee in recent years that has gone awhile between nominations, last year there were a lot, before that Weisz, and before that McDormand, so right now with how things are Murray makes sense to me as the actor or one of the actors that could be that nominee or one of those nominees.

Also your list is the same as mine right now. As long as Annette comes out this year, I think that even without festivals with the goodwill/respect that Driver has right now plus hopefully Amazon being able to do a better job of promoting it then the films they had last year that at least Driver and Cotillard can get nominations. There's also the critics factor, I'm hoping they love it like Holy Motors, but Driver and/or Cotillard could winning most if not all of the top tier critics awards. 

She's already won all 3, but I don't see why she couldn't win again especially since it's already been over five years since the last time she won. He's won LA, but last year he was runner-up at everything, so maybe he's able to win this year depending on how much of a factor Hopkins is and possibly Murray. Hopkins has won everything except NSFC, so I could see him winning this year since this will probably be his last shot. With Murray, I'm not sure, he could possibly be a factor, but he's already won everything, and won everything twice to boot, so in that scenario I think they'd probably push Coppola and/or Jones more and either award Hopkins since he's only won once or possibly never if it's NSFC, or Driver since he was runner-up last year. 

It's possible that Hopkins just sweeps like Banderas did last year, but my feeling right now is that Driver wins NYFCC because he's from there and because they go before LA, they'll throw down the gauntlet about picking some stuff outside of the box before LA can, and then LA probably goes with Hopkins and NSFC probably Hopkins. 

ETA: I forgot Matt Damon in Stillwater assuming it comes out this year, so maybe Damon in leading and Murray in supporting as category fraud where he might have a better chance to win. (Not really sure though because it doesn't seem like most of the industry likes him that much, but with how weird this year is, and if he gets the critics behind him again, it's probably his best shot to be nominated again and to even win maybe.)