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Post by quetee on May 12, 2020 18:20:51 GMT
Well, the Academy took one look at what was released and said... hell to the no. New rules change the game. We welcome two additions to the list and got rid of three.
If you see something not on the list, please post it.
Mank won last month's poll.
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Post by Martin Stett on May 12, 2020 18:24:58 GMT
Sticking with News of the World. We don't even have Cannes to tease some surprise contenders like Parasite, so I'm sticking with the boring option.
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Post by pacinoyes on May 12, 2020 18:27:44 GMT
I'm off the Spike Lee train because - I never thought he was (ever) that good a filmmaker....... and despite what I've heard I'll take Netflix holding out for a better date released film over his one in June.........could be wrong but that's obviously a troubling sign for a genuine BP contender and this board just glossed over it tbh. What a mess......which of course is why I could be back on Da 5 Bloods in June if it really looks like it was a "strategic" move......
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Post by quetee on May 12, 2020 18:49:07 GMT
I'm off the Spike Lee train because - I never thought he was (ever) that good a filmmaker....... and despite what I've heard I'll take Netflix holding out for a better date released film over his one in June.........could be wrong but that's obviously a troubling sign for a genuine BP contender and this board just glossed over it tbh. What a mess......which of course is why I could be back on Da 5 Bloods in June if it really looks like it was a "strategic" move...... We won't really knew what's going on until the other studios decide which films they wanna schedule for VOD release. We probably won't have any major festival (except for Tribeca doing drive-in fest)this year so you have to change your strategy.
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Post by TerryMontana on May 12, 2020 20:09:27 GMT
I'll throw a bone to the Father although News of the World and Tenet look very promising.
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morton
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Post by morton on May 12, 2020 21:46:01 GMT
I'll throw a bone to the Father although News of the World and Tenet look very promising. I went with Tenet this month just because so far it looks like it's going to be the first major release in theaters in months. It could end up being the savior of theaters, which would definitely be a great narrative. (On the other hand, if businesses opened up too early, and we're back to step one again, that would be disastrous, so I guess it could go either way right now.) I think my choice last month Next Goal Wins is being held back to 2021. Not positive, but I think I read that.
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Post by stephen on May 12, 2020 21:49:46 GMT
They're really bigging up Tenet, and considering it's being seen as almost the "savior of the cinema" in terms of getting people back into theaters, I can see that being enough to get Nolan over the hump at last. Fuck it, why not?
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on May 13, 2020 1:29:19 GMT
I'm not predicting Tenet (or anything yet because I really have no idea at this point), but if it actually ends up being the film that wins Nolan his Oscar because of some "savior of theaters" narrative in the wake of the pandemic, I would lose my shit... especially since I was one of the fools who was predicting him to win for Interstellar months before its reviews hit, then predicted him to win for Dunkirk right up until SAG noms, and then immediately wrote off Tenet as a non-contender as soon as the project was announced.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on May 13, 2020 1:49:00 GMT
I'm not predicting Tenet (or anything yet because I really have no idea at this point), but if it actually ends up being the film that wins Nolan his Oscar because of some "savior of theaters" narrative in the wake of the pandemic, I would lose my shit... especially since I was one of the fools who was predicting him to win for Interstellar months before its reviews hit, then predicted him to win for Dunkirk right up until SAG noms, and then immediately wrote off Tenet as a non-contender as soon as the project was announced. Son, if you’re going to try and predict a film to win BP at this moment in time, then....
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Post by mhynson27 on May 13, 2020 2:23:37 GMT
My heart says Tenet but my head says Mank.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on May 14, 2020 2:13:52 GMT
still convinced half of these aren't seeing the light of day until 2021. If any of them do, I suppose News of the World sounds the most probably on paper. But I'm going off the premise of who the hell knows what's going to happen in summer/fall with more festival cancellations and release delays likely and just stick with the movie that's actually been seen and liked: Never Rarely Sometimes Always.
Doesn't look like a traditional winner at all, but nothing about 2020 has (or will be) traditional, except the GOP's self-interested misanthropy.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 14, 2020 2:18:29 GMT
still convinced half of these aren't seeing the light of day until 2021. If any of them do, I suppose News of the World sounds the most probably on paper. But I'm going off the premise of who the hell knows what's going to happen in summer/fall with more festival cancellations and release delays likely and just stick with the movie that's actually been seen and liked: Sonic the Hedgehog.Doesn't look like a traditional winner at all, but nothing about 2020 has (or will be) traditional, except the GOP's self-interested misanthropy. Agreed.
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Post by quetee on May 14, 2020 4:23:26 GMT
still convinced half of these aren't seeing the light of day until 2021. If any of them do, I suppose News of the World sounds the most probably on paper. But I'm going off the premise of who the hell knows what's going to happen in summer/fall with more festival cancellations and release delays likely and just stick with the movie that's actually been seen and liked: Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Doesn't look like a traditional winner at all, but nothing about 2020 has (or will be) traditional, except the GOP's self-interested misanthropy. I think the studio's decision will be based on projected box office. The last few years, even with as many as 9 movies still a lot of those films were no where near 100mil box office. I think the projected low grossers will get released via VOD if theatres don't open by Oct.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 14, 2020 6:42:36 GMT
still convinced half of these aren't seeing the light of day until 2021. If any of them do, I suppose News of the World sounds the most probably on paper. But I'm going off the premise of who the hell knows what's going to happen in summer/fall with more festival cancellations and release delays likely and just stick with the movie that's actually been seen and liked: Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Doesn't look like a traditional winner at all, but nothing about 2020 has (or will be) traditional, except the GOP's self-interested misanthropy. The one thing you need to keep in mind though is streaming services. Even if basically nothing else comes out in cinemas for the rest of the year, streaming will take care of that. Netflix alone has new movies from Fincher, Lee, Howard and Kaufman, which are all but guaranteed to be dropping this year. I'd take any of those, sight unseen, over a little Sundance film that not that many people have even heard of.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on May 14, 2020 14:41:52 GMT
still convinced half of these aren't seeing the light of day until 2021. If any of them do, I suppose News of the World sounds the most probably on paper. But I'm going off the premise of who the hell knows what's going to happen in summer/fall with more festival cancellations and release delays likely and just stick with the movie that's actually been seen and liked: Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Doesn't look like a traditional winner at all, but nothing about 2020 has (or will be) traditional, except the GOP's self-interested misanthropy. The one thing you need to keep in mind though is streaming services. Even if basically nothing else comes out in cinemas for the rest of the year, streaming will take care of that. Netflix alone has new movies from Fincher, Lee, Howard and Kaufman, which are all but guaranteed to be dropping this year. I'd take any of those, sight unseen, over a little Sundance film that not that many people have even heard of. This. Easily the best opportunity for Netflix to get over the hump. It will be a much easier pill for voters that have an issue with streaming to swallow as they can write it off in their mind San”unprecedented times.” Plus these should be legit contenders regardless.
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Post by jakesully on May 17, 2020 22:25:25 GMT
Its still Mank for me.
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Post by quetee on May 17, 2020 22:50:34 GMT
The one thing you need to keep in mind though is streaming services. Even if basically nothing else comes out in cinemas for the rest of the year, streaming will take care of that. Netflix alone has new movies from Fincher, Lee, Howard and Kaufman, which are all but guaranteed to be dropping this year. I'd take any of those, sight unseen, over a little Sundance film that not that many people have even heard of. This. Easily the best opportunity for Netflix to get over the hump. It will be a much easier pill for voters that have an issue with streaming to swallow as they can write it off in their mind San”unprecedented times.” Plus these should be legit contenders regardless. This will be their best shot cause other studios will have to stream too and the lines will be blurred. Everyone will have to watch from home.
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Post by bob-coppola on May 18, 2020 1:14:58 GMT
Even if Tenet's BO numbers are good, does that even matter if, at the end of the day, it's more of a high-concept action movie (like Inception) and not BP material? Nolan could win BD if it's heralded as a tech marvel, which I believe it will be, but the last time IIRC that we had a sci-fi action movie that was a big deal because it sold tickets and was a BP contender for the win - Avatar - it was passed over for a more conventional Oscar movie. Also, this whole "savior of the cinemas" narrative in the middle of a pandemic is just way too much on-the-nose and self-congratulatory (even for Hollywood), and could be seen as out of touch with the real world, which would backfire.
As of now, Mank seems like a safe bet: a stylish movie about the film industry, but Fincher being behind it will also make it interesting for people who don't want to watch a boring Oscar-bait biopic. And it's Netflix, so it will be avaliable for everyone despite whatever happens in the world. My other bet is The French Dispatch, which could be huge due to the free-press theme of it and the Anderson style - but it's one of those movies that follow many stories, and I'm not sure how those fare as BP winners.
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Post by quetee on May 18, 2020 2:27:52 GMT
You guys do realize that other Studios can release via VOD also? They just gotta figure out which ones they wanna go that route.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 18, 2020 4:09:53 GMT
You guys do realize that other Studios can release via VOD also? They just gotta figure out which ones they wanna go that route. If a studio thinks that they have a good enough movie in their hands that could potentially go all the way, they're not going to dump it on VOD. They'll either see if they can release it in limited at the end of the year or they'll just push it to next year. Nomadland, Blonde, Last Night in Soho, Stillwater and Next Goal Wins are all getting pushed to next year already. Some films benefit greatly from a festival run so if that isn't an option this year they will just hold off until 2021. Especially considering with production being halted right now, who knows what can actually come out next year if it isn't already pretty close to completion. I got to imagine this year will either be the year Netflix finally gets the W or a big, already completed film, will still get released and suck up all the hype, i.e. Tenet, Dune or The French Dispatch.
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Post by quetee on May 18, 2020 18:41:53 GMT
You guys do realize that other Studios can release via VOD also? They just gotta figure out which ones they wanna go that route. If a studio thinks that they have a good enough movie in their hands that could potentially go all the way, they're not going to dump it on VOD. They'll either see if they can release it in limited at the end of the year or they'll just push it to next year. Nomadland, Blonde, Last Night in Soho, Stillwater and Next Goal Wins are all getting pushed to next year already. Some films benefit greatly from a festival run so if that isn't an option this year they will just hold off until 2021. Especially considering with production being halted right now, who knows what can actually come out next year if it isn't already pretty close to completion. I got to imagine this year will either be the year Netflix finally gets the W or a big, already completed film, will still get released and suck up all the hype, i.e. Tenet, Dune or The French Dispatch. I don't think it will do with quality. I think it will do with box office potential. If they have a good movie but they know that it won't make that much they will go VOD route cause winning an Oscar at the end of the day has lifelong earning potential. They won't go with the potential 100mil dollar grosser but the 40mil yep.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 19, 2020 2:13:21 GMT
If a studio thinks that they have a good enough movie in their hands that could potentially go all the way, they're not going to dump it on VOD. They'll either see if they can release it in limited at the end of the year or they'll just push it to next year. Nomadland, Blonde, Last Night in Soho, Stillwater and Next Goal Wins are all getting pushed to next year already. Some films benefit greatly from a festival run so if that isn't an option this year they will just hold off until 2021. Especially considering with production being halted right now, who knows what can actually come out next year if it isn't already pretty close to completion. I got to imagine this year will either be the year Netflix finally gets the W or a big, already completed film, will still get released and suck up all the hype, i.e. Tenet, Dune or The French Dispatch. I don't think it will do with quality. I think it will do with box office potential. If they have a good movie but they know that it won't make that much they will go VOD route cause winning an Oscar at the end of the day has lifelong earning potential. They won't go with the potential 100mil dollar grosser but the 40mil yep. What are some movies you think will go this route?
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Post by quetee on May 19, 2020 18:47:15 GMT
I don't think it will do with quality. I think it will do with box office potential. If they have a good movie but they know that it won't make that much they will go VOD route cause winning an Oscar at the end of the day has lifelong earning potential. They won't go with the potential 100mil dollar grosser but the 40mil yep. What are some movies you think will go this route? Based on the above list, I could see Nomadland, The Trial of Chicago 7 and The Father setting a VOD date.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 20, 2020 2:16:35 GMT
What are some movies you think will go this route? Based on the above list, I could see Nomadland, The Trial of Chicago 7 and The Father setting a VOD date.
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Post by cheesecake on May 20, 2020 10:37:56 GMT
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