So Best Actress will only have 4 slots this year again?

Will there be a Huppert/Rampling/Cotillard/Riva next award season? Who could it be?

Judging from the names you mentioned it sounds like a boring year for Best Actress. Hope, there are a couple of outsiders shaking things up.

Looks like it. Spielberg is by far the most respected director she'll have worked with in several years, and the subject matter will make it too tempting for awards bodies to pass over. Given Florence Foster Jenkins's relative underperformance on nominations' morning, I firmly believe that it was the GG speech that secured Streep's nomination, and now that she has a late-year release that's politically-themed and extremely topical, she'll be able to replicate it a hundred times over during the season. She's the best acting bet we have in any category at this point, I think.

Dench is probably #2. Not only is she backed by a studio that's notoriously skillful at getting their actors nominated (further evidenced by their two last-minute Oscar surprises this past season), she's already been nominated for playing this exact same character, so it's a tried and tested combination.

It's way muddier after that, but if I had to guess, I'd have Winslet as 3rd (provided the film is a hit, which I'm kind of feeling will be the case) and Chastain as 4th (Jay has read the script, says it's a strong part with several juicy monologues; plus, every single film that Sorkin has written so far this century has gotten at least one acting nomination from the Academy, which bodes well for this one's chances), with a first-timer rounding it out. Maybe someone who breaks through at the fall festivals.

Lion's success and the news that Weinstein is giving Mary Magdalene his prime November slot makes me more confident about Mara, but the inevitable controversy could hinder her chances, so I'd keep her as a possibility for now.

Stone I think will be more of a Globe thing, but in Searchlight I trust.

Tully could be Jason Reitman's big comeback, but his last two were poorly received and his other collaboration with Theron resulted in one of the most unfair acting snubs of the decade, so I'll wait and see on that one.

Mirren, Larson, Bening, Close and Ronan could all happen.

Frances McDormand seems to be amazing in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri judging by the trailer, but I'm pretty confident that'll be too out-there and brutal for most awards voters. 

I'm not quite feeling Jennifer Lawrence, not sure why.

And fingers crossed for Huppert and Haneke. Don't see it happening for them this year, but who knows.

So far Vega has been the only newcomer with excellent reviews as her film at festivals, but not sure how AMPAS would feel about nominating a transgendered person and in what category they'd vote her in, plus the hinderence of being in a foreign film.

The only two I'm predicting are Streep (if she's snubbed after GODDMAMN INTO THE WOODS AND FREAKING FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS it'll be just so weird) and Mara. The other three, we'll find out after the fall festivals.

You listed one newbie. We need to be on the lookout for more than that.

What a boring predictable list

This early out, I think it will be more interesting to find the newbies than the placeholders. We should focus on at least two.

Solid points all around. 

I didn't even know Amazon had slated Wonder Wheel for October. If that's because they're confident and not because Allen needs more time to finish it, then I can also see it scoring in other categories like Screenplay, Costume Design and Cinematography (which Storaro should've been locked and loaded for last year, Goddamn it).

I'll have to disagree about Chastain's projects being "numerous". She's only been in serious contention twice since Zero Dark Thirty (for A Most Violent Year and Miss Sloane), and both times she had several factors working against her: small films from inexperienced distributors (A24 was yet to become the powerhouse they are today, and I'm pretty sure EuropaCorp hasn't had a single title not bomb so far), bad releases (AMVY premiered on December 31st with little promotion, while Sloane was badly marketed and came out in a horrible political climate), and not enough space to campaign (she was contractually obligated to focus exclusively on Interstellar for a good portion of the 2014 season, and she was in Canada shooting Molly's Game the past few months).

She's far from a lock now, of course, but I do think her odds are slightly better this year than they were the last two times she was in the running. Sorkin is an established household name that the Academy gravitates towards, which means it won't be such an uphill battle to get people to watch Molly's Game; filming wrapped two months ago, so it could make the fall festivals and build buzz from there instead of being a late comer like her last two awards hopefuls were; and given her raves last year for what's been widely described as Sorkin-lite, she'll likely do well with the genuine article.

The two big question marks here are the distributor (STX is bigger than A24 and EuropaCorp were, but this will be their first time in the awards ring) and the fact that neither Chastain nor Sorkin are BO draws, which could be a setback. Still, it should do well enough with precursors to stay in the conversation. Even Steve Jobs, which was widely considered a disappointment and was a much publicized box-office letdown was a perennial acting fixture, with Winslet picking up the Globe and the BAFTA hot in Vikander's heels. The HFPA at least should go nuts for it, given their love of Chastain (4 nominations in six years), Sorkin and Elba. We'll see.

Dench and Streep are the only ones that strike me as winners right now, but even then, I'm not going all in on either of them. Dench has the perfect combination of character, subject matter and filmmaking team, but given the fact that she's already won and knowing that the Academy hasn't been quite as enamored with this vein of traditional costume biopic lately, maybe someone else comes along with a more exciting project and a juicier narrative. Streep could be it, but would they give her a 4th so soon after The Iron Lady? Maybe if no other contender sticks, but it's looking like too strong a year to say for sure.