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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2020 19:16:16 GMT
Definitely the hardest year yet... Really tough to narrow down, but I'm going with:
Michael Keaton, Birdman Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Edward Norton, Birdman Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 27, 2020 19:41:06 GMT
Given how strong Birdman was and how meaty Stone's part was, I can only imagine she was a distant runner-up to Arquette's sweep. Other than that, I think it's about right. The 2014 race was one of the firsts I followed, but I was more interested in the BP race than the acting ones, so I wouldn't know. But I remember reading vaguely about how much buzz Witherspoon had pre-TIFF/Telluride.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Mar 27, 2020 20:22:44 GMT
Michael Keaton, Birdman Felicity Jones, Theory of Everything (wish it was Pike but they hated her film) Edward Norton, Birdman Emma Stone, Birdman
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Post by stephen on Mar 27, 2020 20:26:44 GMT
Keaton Jones Norton Stone
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Post by sirjeremy on Mar 27, 2020 20:29:23 GMT
Michael Keaton, Birdman Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything Ethan Hawke, Boyhood Emma Stone, Birdman
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Post by TerryMontana on Mar 27, 2020 21:37:19 GMT
Keaton Jones Norton Stone
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 27, 2020 21:52:17 GMT
Definitely the hardest year yet... Really tough to narrow down, but I'm going with: Michael Keaton, BirdmanRosamund Pike, Gone GirlEdward Norton, BirdmanKeira Knightley, The Imitation GameYes, even though this was another one of those runaway years where the winners won by large margins, it's tough for me to narrow down who was second in Leading Actress and Supporting Actor. Best Actor: Keaton. This is a no brainer. Probably the closest of all the acting races, but still probably wasn't that close. Best Actress: I think Cotillard was last, but second through fourth places might have been close because Moore probably by won such a large margin and both everyone had pros and cons. Wild overperformed by Dern getting in, but missed Adapted Screenplay, and Witherspoon didn't really have the narrative to win a second. Well I guess she did, but it never really became a factor. Gone Girl really underperformed, and even though Pike was sort of the "it" girl of that year, I wouldn't be surprised if she wound up fourth because I could see many male voters not liking Gone Girl at all. So I guess Jones might have been second because The Theory of Everything was nominated for Best Picture and got a SAG Ensemble nomination, but it's hard to say because Redmayne got so much of the attention. Best Supporting Actor: Norton makes sense because he was in the Best Picture winner, but I'm going to go with Hawke because I think he has more supporters overall. Best Supporting Actress: Stone. She was an "it" girl, and probably in an Arquette-less year would have swept.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Mar 27, 2020 22:53:16 GMT
Best Actor - Keaton - Easy. If anything it was probably pretty close between him and Redmayne until the last few weeks. Best Actress - Jones - Pike was probably fourth to be honest. The academy really didn't take to Gone Girl. Best Supporting Actor - Norton could have been second, but Hawke seems more respected, so I'd give him the advantage. Best Supporting Actress - Stone - Another easy one. Big current It Girl, and the academy no doubt likes her.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 28, 2020 1:56:13 GMT
Keaton Jones Hawke Stone
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 28, 2020 2:07:43 GMT
Keaton Jones Norton Stone
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 28, 2020 2:07:49 GMT
It's rather shocking to me that Jones seems to be everyone's pick as the runner-up. I think that, exactly because Moore won by a huge margin and was so much ahead of everyone else, the runner-up must've been a passion pick instead of the run-of-the-mill Oscar bait. Moore was so, so ahead, that regarding the #2 in the category, it wouldn't really matter who had the more liked movie, you know? The difference was so big that the only thing that would set someone from 2-5 places apart would be passion, which I think Pike had (she got nominated everywhere as well, and she clearly was the people's choice with the most popular movie and character).
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 28, 2020 2:26:10 GMT
It's rather shocking to me that Jones seems to be everyone's pick as the runner-up. I think that, exactly because Moore won by a huge margin and was so much ahead of everyone else, the runner-up must've been a passion pick instead of the run-of-the-mill Oscar bait. Moore was so, so ahead, that regarding the #2 in the category, it wouldn't really matter who had the more liked movie, you know? The difference was so big that the only thing that would set someone from 2-5 places apart would be passion, which I think Pike had (she got nominated everywhere as well, and she clearly was the people's choice with the most popular movie and character). Gone Girl couldn't even get a Screenplay nom and Fincher had been gaining popularity with the Academy. He had three consecutive films do very well (I know Dragon Tattoo didn't get a Best Picture nom, but 5 nominations including a Lead Actress nom and Editing win is a very strong haul for a remake of a genre film that had good, but not great reviews). It was definitely Jones.
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Post by notacrook on Mar 28, 2020 2:32:07 GMT
Keaton, Norton and Stone are clear seconds.
Actress is trickier. As people have said, Moore was just so far out in front that everyone else just seems like such a weird winner. Pike had the most hype from the public, but as its been said, the Academy didn't take to her film at all. I'll say Jones, but again, it sounds weird.
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 28, 2020 2:49:15 GMT
It's rather shocking to me that Jones seems to be everyone's pick as the runner-up. I think that, exactly because Moore won by a huge margin and was so much ahead of everyone else, the runner-up must've been a passion pick instead of the run-of-the-mill Oscar bait. Moore was so, so ahead, that regarding the #2 in the category, it wouldn't really matter who had the more liked movie, you know? The difference was so big that the only thing that would set someone from 2-5 places apart would be passion, which I think Pike had (she got nominated everywhere as well, and she clearly was the people's choice with the most popular movie and character). Gone Girl couldn't even get a Screenplay nom and Fincher had been gaining popularity with the Academy. He had three consecutive films do very well (I know Dragon Tattoo didn't get a Best Picture nom, but 5 nominations including a Lead Actress nom and Editing win is a very strong haul for a remake of a genre film that had good, but not great reviews). It was definitely Jones. TTOE was surely a stronger movie, but I don't think it necessarily means Jones was #2. They both got GG, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice, so it's not like Pike was an Oscar-only thing. Other than that, Pike got way more mentions and wins in critics circles than Jones, and the average joe was rooting for her. I'm not saying she was a close #2, but I see a lot more passion for her than default-pick Jones when I look back into these stats, you know? I see it a bit similar to Stone vs Huppert in 2016: Elle was very weak and underperformed, but does that mean Huppert wasn't the #2 in the BA race? Having a strong movie matters, but personal passion counts a lot - and it should count a lot regarding to these specific placements when none of the "losers" had any chance to win anyways. Anyways, it just doesn't feel right that Jones was the second-place with a performance that couldn't even win any minor critics' prize. Her only win that season was in a special category in the Women Film Critics Circle Award. I just don't see any passion for her in 2014, when her movie was a hot ticket.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 3:59:56 GMT
Birdman nominees + Witherspoon.
I reeeeally don't see Jones being second, with her film having all the focus on Redmayne's performance and the score throughout the season, also at the time she was pretty much a new name. Pike's film underperformed big time. Meanwhile, even if Wild couldn't get in for screenplay, it did have enough steam to get Dern in, and Witherspoon was perhaps the most recognizable non winner in the lineup bar Cottilard maybe, that won't account for a win but that would account for a good number of votes. Also, her performance had raves, kinda unlike Jones.
For other categories, Birdman nominees, definitely.
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no
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Post by no on Mar 28, 2020 6:46:14 GMT
nobody because there is no second place
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Post by stephen on Mar 28, 2020 15:12:39 GMT
Gone Girl couldn't even get a Screenplay nom and Fincher had been gaining popularity with the Academy. He had three consecutive films do very well (I know Dragon Tattoo didn't get a Best Picture nom, but 5 nominations including a Lead Actress nom and Editing win is a very strong haul for a remake of a genre film that had good, but not great reviews). It was definitely Jones. TTOE was surely a stronger movie, but I don't think it necessarily means Jones was #2. They both got GG, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice, so it's not like Pike was an Oscar-only thing. Other than that, Pike got way more mentions and wins in critics circles than Jones, and the average joe was rooting for her. I'm not saying she was a close #2, but I see a lot more passion for her than default-pick Jones when I look back into these stats, you know? I see it a bit similar to Stone vs Huppert in 2016: Elle was very weak and underperformed, but does that mean Huppert wasn't the #2 in the BA race? Having a strong movie matters, but personal passion counts a lot - and it should count a lot regarding to these specific placements when none of the "losers" had any chance to win anyways. Anyways, it just doesn't feel right that Jones was the second-place with a performance that couldn't even win any minor critics' prize. Her only win that season was in a special category in the Women Film Critics Circle Award. I just don't see any passion for her in 2014, when her movie was a hot ticket. There's a bit of a misnomer here: Elle was never expected to be this big Oscar success. It's about the unfriendliest film to ever get an above-the-line Oscar nomination, it was never projected to get anything more aside from Huppert... and even then, Huppert wasn't expected. Her getting as far as she did was pretty damn unprecedented, and on top of that, she won a major prize with the Globes. She had profile and she had a narrative on her own of being this major figure of acting royalty en route to her first nomination, and while people did blind themselves to thinking she could take down Stone, the fact that she got as far as she did on the back of that movie was impressive. Compare that to Pike. Her film, despite its grimdark nature, is much more what the Academy would recognize if they liked it when compared to Elle, but it did underperform because people expected it to be not just a contender for Screenplay, but a possible winner (lol). Some even thought Fincher could get in, and there were more than a few people thinking Coon or the film itself would get recognized as well. Gone Girl went from being this presumed favorite at the start of the season to a complete non-starter outside of Pike, who is not nearly on Huppert's level in terms of general industry respect or acclaim. She got in at the end, but ultimately you have to remember this: the Academy is largely comprised of a bunch of people with basic-ass taste, and the only time you get an outside-the-box win is if a.) it's undeniable to the point that even the most basic of bitches can't overlook it, or b.) the field of competition is so thin that there's no real choice. Pike fit into neither category. Jones, however, does. Her film hit all the necessary precursors and even though Redmayne ate up most of the awards attention, that's mainly because Moore was sewn up from Day 1 and there was really no chance anyone was getting in over her.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Mar 29, 2020 3:05:48 GMT
Pike was probably closer to being snubbed than winning.
it was probably Jones.
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 29, 2020 5:00:05 GMT
Michael Keaton. ...Did any of them get votes? I suppose Rosamund Pike because she's the outlier? I don't see anyone voting for Witherspoon, Jones, or Cotillard over Julianne Moore. But the people who prefer "understated" performances might have all gravitated towards Pike? Ethan Hawke. You can make a case for Norton, but did he actually win anything? I think these two are pretty close and Hawke gets the edge for not being allegedly horribly unlikeable. Emma Stone.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 29, 2020 5:09:22 GMT
Norton did win NBR and the few critics groups Simmons didn't win that year. So I'd still say Norton was second, but tough to be certain given his divisive industry rep, which will likely keep him from ever winning unless he gives a completely undeniable performance. It wouldn't be that shocking if either Hawke or Ruffalo placed ahead of him given they're both very well liked and feel like actors who will inevitably win.
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Post by DanQuixote on Mar 30, 2020 11:42:44 GMT
The Birdman trio and Felicity Jones.
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Post by thomasjerome on Mar 30, 2020 12:12:17 GMT
Keaton Jones Hawke Stone
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Post by jimmalone on Mar 30, 2020 12:22:20 GMT
Keaton is quite clear Actress I have no idea. Could be Jones, Pike or even Cotillard. Norton probably, but wouldn't rule out Hawke Stone
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