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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 2:00:40 GMT
You know how we do.
Matt Damon, The Martian Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years Sylvester Stallone, Creed Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
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Post by stephen on Mar 26, 2020 2:32:19 GMT
Bryan Cranston. Breaking Bad love was at an all-time peak and he hit every major precursor on the strength of himself alone. Redmayne wasn't winning consecutively, Damon was fighting hard for that fifth spot, and Fassbender's film lost a lot of steam by the end and it's not a particularly showy performance on the surface. I just think Cranston had the louder, showier role of the bunch (in a movie about the industry, no less) and he has always felt right.
Ronan was almost assuredly second. Brooklyn had a healthy showing indeed.
Stallone, natch.
Winslet had the Globe and I think Carol was far too austere for the Academy's liking, but I could see Mara sneaking a win Vikander-style.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 26, 2020 2:37:05 GMT
Damon Ronan Stallone Winslet
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Mar 26, 2020 2:53:25 GMT
Matt Damon, The Martian Saiorse Ronan, Brooklyn Sylvester Stallone, Creed Rooney Mara, Carol
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 26, 2020 3:04:42 GMT
Best Actor: Cranston. Although it would have been sort of odd because he was a lone nominee, but no one else really fits. Fassbender won LAFCA, and was on his second nomination, but I think Steve Jobs flopped too much for him to gain traction. Plus Winslet got all the attention for it during the televised awards. Redmayne was too young of an actor to win two in a row, and like Fassbender, his costar got all of the televised awards attention. Damon missed SAG plus genre bias. This was another year especially in this category where at least 3 of the winners probably won by huge margins that second place wasn’t even close.
Best Actress: Ronan.
Best Supporting Actor: I know everyone is probably going to say Stallone for good reason, but I think it might have been Ruffalo. He’s very popular and well liked right now, and Stallone missed SAG and BAFTA. I know Ruffalo missed SAG too, but I think that was still when there was confusion on which Spotlight actor to go with. Plus they’re more kid friendly even toward young boys and Tremblay’s category fraud worked with them. Stallone was also a lone nominee while Ruffalo was in the Best Picture winner.
Best Supporting Actress: Winslet.
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Post by notacrook on Mar 26, 2020 3:45:03 GMT
Fassbender Ronan Stallone Mara
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Post by countjohn on Mar 26, 2020 3:45:32 GMT
Fassbender, Ronan, Stallone, Winslet. Seems pretty easy this time.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 26, 2020 9:41:38 GMT
Best Actor: Not really sure. I’d say Damon given he was the only one in a BP nominee, but he also missed SAG when there was literally no reason why he should have (relatively early populist releases always do well here). I’ll say Cranston given the way of popularity he was riding, but Leo probably won by a mile.
Other three seem obvious (Ronan. Stallone, Winslet).
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Post by thomasjerome on Mar 26, 2020 11:02:46 GMT
Fassbender Ronan Stallone Winslet
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Post by TerryMontana on Mar 26, 2020 12:23:03 GMT
Fassbender (ru Damon) Ronan Stallone Winslet
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 13:49:11 GMT
Actor: Fassbender would've most likely won if DiCaprio wasn't there (yeah his film didn't get the obvious screenplay nod but if he was the frontrunner people would've noticed enough to give the film more above the line nods).
Honestly all four, even Redmayne to some extent (afterglow love in a real life baity film whose actress won, also after DiCaprio the race is quite fractured) have some argument for second, but gonna go with Fassbender here. That said, if Scott got in for Director, Damon would be a pretty clear second.
Actress: Ronan, doy
S Actor: Stallone
S Actress: Winslet. If Mara had a chance her film should've got in for best picture at least (Vikander and hypothetically Winslet didn't need that, but their films didn't have a real shot anyway), let alone the fact that she didn't win anything not from critics.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 26, 2020 14:25:47 GMT
Damon Ronan Stallone Winslet
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 14:28:45 GMT
You guys are probably right about Ronan, but I do remember how intense the passion was for Rampling - she blitzed the American press and really got the "living legend" treatment - her high profile friends came out for her (hosting screenings, etc.).
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Post by stephen on Mar 26, 2020 14:42:59 GMT
You guys are probably right about Ronan, but I do remember how intense the passion was for Rampling - she blitzed the American press and really got the "living legend" treatment - her high profile friends came out for her (hosting screenings, etc.). The passion was there, but it didn't have the sheer palpable "holy crap, this could actually happen" feeling of Riva or Huppert. And like Riva and Huppert, it's unlikely she would've been able to beat the ingenue already on her second nomination in a Best Picture nominee. Rampling, I think, got in on the back of an extremely fractured race (2015 was a mess, especially with category confusion forcing Mara and Vikander to hopscotch from supporting to lead at places like the Globes) with the benefit of a well-timed push at the end, but I don't think she had enough momentum to take down someone like Ronan, who had a Best Picture nominee and who fits the bill of a Best Actress winner far more readily than Rampling. The nomination was her (deserved) reward.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 14:45:48 GMT
You guys are probably right about Ronan, but I do remember how intense the passion was for Rampling - she blitzed the American press and really got the "living legend" treatment - her high profile friends came out for her (hosting screenings, etc.). The passion was there, but it didn't have the sheer palpable "holy crap, this could actually happen" feeling of Riva or Huppert. And like Riva and Huppert, it's unlikely she would've been able to beat the ingenue already on her second nomination in a Best Picture nominee. Rampling, I think, got in on the back of an extremely fractured race (2015 was a mess, especially with category confusion forcing Mara and Vikander to hopscotch from supporting to lead at places like the Globes) with the benefit of a well-timed push at the end, but I don't think she had enough momentum to take down someone like Ronan, who had a Best Picture nominee and who fits the bill of a Best Actress winner far more readily than Rampling. The nomination was her (deserved) reward. For me it did, even if only briefly, but I certainly take all of your points.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Mar 26, 2020 23:12:33 GMT
Damon Ronan Ruffalo - It might have been Stallone, but honestly he seems to be really disliked in general in the industry, that it wouldn't surprise me if he was actually third. Winslet
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Mar 26, 2020 23:27:51 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again.
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Post by stephen on Mar 26, 2020 23:46:49 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again. He's not very well-respected (and there are some unflattering stories about him in the industry over the years), but it was a major comeback narrative that had a lot of buzz, and he had precursor support. It was a split year, but with the only other major contender with any awards hardware having missed out on the actual nomination, you can't discount Sly's run. He also had arguably the baitiest role of the five, taking a beloved cinematic icon and giving him actual pathos and dimension people didn't expect.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 26, 2020 23:59:33 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again. No. The person people are overestimating is Damon. How is he second without a SAG nom? It's not like late release and/or screeners were an excuse.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2020 0:46:42 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again. No. The person people are overestimating is Damon. How is he second without a SAG nom? It's not like late release and/or screeners were an excuse. Regina King just won without a SAG or BAFTA nomination - it's not an exact science.
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 27, 2020 1:01:30 GMT
No. The person people are overestimating is Damon. How is he second without a SAG nom? It's not like late release and/or screeners were an excuse. Regina King just won without a SAG or BAFTA nomination - it's not an exact science. She had late screeners in an indie film. Damon's film had been out since early October and was a huge hit.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Mar 27, 2020 3:25:07 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again. No. The person people are overestimating is Damon. How is he second without a SAG nom? It's not like late release and/or screeners were an excuse. Stallone didn't have a SAG or BAFTA nods. He was also the lone nod for his film.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Mar 27, 2020 15:39:54 GMT
I think people are over estimating Sylvester Stallone. I don't think he's that well respected among his peers. He was known for taking a big pay day - for making bad movies. The King of Razzies. And the Rocky character in Creed - has been done time and time again. He's not very well-respected (and there are some unflattering stories about him in the industry over the years), but it was a major comeback narrative that had a lot of buzz, and he had precursor support. It was a split year, but with the only other major contender with any awards hardware having missed out on the actual nomination, you can't discount Sly's run. He also had arguably the baitiest role of the five, taking a beloved cinematic icon and giving him actual pathos and dimension people didn't expect.
So did Jennifer Lopez, who won more critics prizes than Stallone. She actually came in 2nd after Laura Dern with the most precursor wins. But both had the reputation for making bad movies and more known for their celebrity than serious actors.
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Post by stephen on Mar 27, 2020 15:45:27 GMT
He's not very well-respected (and there are some unflattering stories about him in the industry over the years), but it was a major comeback narrative that had a lot of buzz, and he had precursor support. It was a split year, but with the only other major contender with any awards hardware having missed out on the actual nomination, you can't discount Sly's run. He also had arguably the baitiest role of the five, taking a beloved cinematic icon and giving him actual pathos and dimension people didn't expect.
So did Jennifer Lopez, who won more critics prizes than Stallone. She actually came in 2nd after Laura Dern with the most precursor wins. But both had the reputation for making bad movies and more known for their celebrity than serious actors.
Yeah, but Lopez wound up not even being nominated, while Stallone was. If Lopez had gotten in, we would be arguing that she was second based on precursors. The landscape of a race changes if you take out one nominee and replace them with another.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Mar 27, 2020 22:08:37 GMT
So did Jennifer Lopez, who won more critics prizes than Stallone. She actually came in 2nd after Laura Dern with the most precursor wins. But both had the reputation for making bad movies and more known for their celebrity than serious actors.
Yeah, but Lopez wound up not even being nominated, while Stallone was. If Lopez had gotten in, we would be arguing that she was second based on precursors. The landscape of a race changes if you take out one nominee and replace them with another. My point - I don't think Stallone was as popular with AMPAS as he has been made out to be by fans.
If you go by fans, J-Lo gave the greatest performance, etc. Even after Dern had swept the precursors, people here were saying that she would loose the Oscar.
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