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Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2020 23:56:41 GMT
Continuing on in the series...
Christian Bale, Vice Glenn Close, The Wife Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part to think Grant came in second place in the Supporting Actor category, but he was an absolute charm bomb while campaigning his ass off, and it would have been a great way to honor a respected (if not necessarily loved) film. What do you think?
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Post by stephen on Mar 22, 2020 0:06:36 GMT
Those are probably all correct if we're basing it off of precursors, but I suspect there was a fair amount of A Star Is Born love that would've seen hardcore Cooper and Gaga support.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 0:11:47 GMT
Those are probably all correct if we're basing it off of precursors, but I suspect there was a fair amount of A Star Is Born love that would've seen hardcore Cooper and Gaga support.There's no evidence to suggest that's true, especially when voters could easily honor Gaga and the film in the Original Song category.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 22, 2020 3:26:23 GMT
Continuing on in the series... Christian Bale, ViceGlenn Close, The WifeRichard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part to think Grant came in second place in the Supporting Actor category, but he was an absolute charm bomb while campaigning his ass off, and it would have been a great way to honor a respected (if not necessarily loved) film. What do you think? These seem pretty accurate to me. Similar to this year, three of the winners were probably so far ahead that I could see second place being closer to third place than to first place. I’d like to believe Cooper was closer to winning than he was, but I think he ended up fourth or even fifth. Mortensen was probably closer since he was in the Best Picture winner, and I think that at least during the second phase of voting, Malek also playing a singer, probably hurt Cooper the most out of all the other nominees.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Mar 22, 2020 4:36:13 GMT
I definitely agree with that lineup overall.
For actor I'd say Bale or maybe even Mortensen just because of the Green Book love.
Definitely Close in actress. In fact the votes were probably really close (no pun intended) in this case. Wouldn't surprise me if it was nearly split before Coleman won.
Richard E. Grant honestly makes the most sense in supporting, just because they probably weren't gonna give it to Sam Elliott due to A Star is Born inflating, Sam Rockwell barely being in Vice, and Adam Driver being really young, and way more then likely to be nominated again (which he did).
Weisz was probably second in supporting actress, in part because King basically killed the competition this season and won every major precursor, leaving little room for anyone else.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 22, 2020 4:39:03 GMT
Same as you, Tyler.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Mar 22, 2020 6:56:01 GMT
Close is the most obvious one. Done deal.
I'm really not feeling Bale. Vice strikes me as American Hustle 2.0: highly buzzed films with starry (and overlapping) casts, written and directed by filmmakers who started out making comedies but came to enjoy solid Oscar streaks after embarking on more dramatic detours, whose combination of cast, crew and subject matter attracted intense hype from the second they were announced. Both were late-breakers that weren't completed in time for the fall festivals; both were unveiled at the tail-end of the nomination process; both exploded right out of the gate with a slew of Globe and Oscar nominations (in Vice's case, the Globe nods came out before the review embargo was even lifted, the reasons for which quickly became very clear)... and both deflated significantly as the season went on and the euphoria of their unveiling died down, because there really wasn't much substance to either one to begin with and the initial enthusiasm didn't stick. Their peak and deflation was basically identical. I don't think that many voters cared about Vice at all, surely not enough to give Bale a second win when the rest of the lineup was all Oscarless.
I'm going with Cooper. The fact that he directed, produced, led, co-wrote the script, sang, played instruments AND penned songs for ASIB must've been very impressive to his peers, and the Directing snub must've only helped, Affleck-style.
For Supporting Actor: Rockwell had just won the previous year, and Driver's was a welcome-to-the-club nod with no winning buzz. They're out. Elliott would've made sense given his status as an industry veteran and the love for his film, but I think Grant's combination of critical momentum, intense campaigning, personal charisma and strong studio must've done the trick. Still pissed Ali won over him.
And finally, it's gotta be Weisz for Supporting Actress. Like Rockwell, Stone had just won; De Tavira had absolutely NO precursor support, to the point where hers was the single most shocking acting nomination of the entire decade; Blunt would've been competitive but got shafted. Adams really should've made more of a dent where King wasn't nominated, but SAG (who double-nodded her that year) passed her over in favor of an Oscar snubbee in a genre film released in April, while BAFTA (who adore her) went with a previous winner. Adams not being able to win any televised prizes even when she didn't have the frontrunner to contend with tells me maybe there isn't as strong an overdue narrative for her in the industry as there is online, and also that (again) Vice was really bleeding during the voting stretch.
So Cooper, Close, Grant, Weisz.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Mar 22, 2020 11:00:39 GMT
Bale, Close, Grant, Weisz. But that might be too British for the Academy.
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Post by DanQuixote on Mar 22, 2020 13:48:47 GMT
Cooper, Close, Grant and Weisz.
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Post by TerryMontana on Mar 22, 2020 14:10:56 GMT
Cooper, Close, Grant, Weisz.
Although I could also see Elliott in BSA.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 22, 2020 16:22:57 GMT
Toughest one for me is Bale vs Cooper.
Bale Close Elliott Weisz
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 22, 2020 17:13:09 GMT
Toughest one for me is Bale vs Cooper. Bale Close Elliott Weisz Yeah, Zeb31 makes a lot of great arguments about Vice, but I feel that way about A Star Is Born and even BlacKkKlansman in that I think I know the obvious top 3 films nominated for Best Picture, but after that, it's difficult to know what was in the top 4 because I feel those three films really underperformed in the end. So Green Book, Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Favourite seemed like the top 4 imo, and Black Panther was probably last, and then BlacKkKlansman, Vice, and A Star Is Born were in the middle to bottom. So I wouldn't actually be surprised if Mortensen was second or third because of how many fans Green Book had. I know Ali won everything and maybe voters would have spread their vote more, but I could also believe that there voters who just voted for it in every category that they could. With Cooper and Bale, I still feel like Bale had the edge even though Cooper had the narrative of directing his own film and singing his own songs plus Bale was playing a real life person that many despise, but I feel like Cooper focused too much on getting a directing nomination that Malek stole all his thunder for portraying a singer, and Malek didn't even really sing but he did play one of the most famous lead singers of all time that also died tragically due to AIDS. Not only that but Lady Gaga was also getting a lot of attention as the Best Actress winner before it became really apparent that it was Close vs. Colman. I could be really wrong because I thought Cooper would win right after I saw ASIB, but then I saw Bohemian Rhapsody and despite the poor reviews when it was clear it was going to be a juggernaut at the box office, I thought that pretty much nailed it for Malek because similar to Judy this year, my gut was telling me that there was no way that such a sympathetic real life figure would lose when their film was a huge hit at the box office. (I know Judy didn't have the box office part, but Zellweger had no competition in the end for whatever reason.) Then the critics awards happened, and Cooper just did terribly all season. I don't know if it was because he didn't campaign enough, or critics thought that he was safe, or they just preferred Gaga more, but he ended up behind Malek in the end, 2018 Film Awards and Nominations. I know that this includes the televised awards, but still even during the season, it was just mostly Hawke with sometimes Bale placing and even Malek and Mortensen scoring a few wins. I know critics and award voters often go their own ways, but I don't think Cooper was able to recover from focusing on getting a director's nomination versus possibly winning for acting. Also even though it got 8 nominations, I feel that it underperformed in the end in only winning Best Original Song. It went from early on being this huge box office success where Cooper worked miracles with Lady Gaga that critics also put their stamp of approval that could possibly win Best Picture, and was the favorite to win both leading acting categories, to only scoring one win at the Globes even though the film felt tailor made for them. It did get a SAG Ensemble nomination and Best Film nomination at BAFTA, but Cooper lost Best First-Time Feature Film Director to Bo Burnham and the Director's branch snubbed him. I know Vice could have done better too, but I think that with the Globes and even Critics Choice win that Bale emerged as the alternative to Malek. He was playing a divisive person, but he had the transformation factor.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Mar 23, 2020 0:37:12 GMT
Toughest one for me is Bale vs Cooper. Bale Close Elliott Weisz Yeah, Zeb31 makes a lot of great arguments about Vice, but I feel that way about A Star Is Born and even BlacKkKlansman in that I think I know the obvious top 3 films nominated for Best Picture, but after that, it's difficult to know what was in the top 4 because I feel those three films really underperformed in the end. So Green Book, Roma, Bohemian Rhapsody, and The Favourite seemed like the top 4 imo, and Black Panther was probably last, and then BlacKkKlansman, Vice, and A Star Is Born were in the middle to bottom. So I wouldn't actually be surprised if Mortensen was second or third because of how many fans Green Book had. I know Ali won everything and maybe voters would have spread their vote more, but I could also believe that there voters who just voted for it in every category that they could. With Cooper and Bale, I still feel like Bale had the edge even though Cooper had the narrative of directing his own film and singing his own songs plus Bale was playing a real life person that many despise, but I feel like Cooper focused too much on getting a directing nomination that Malek stole all his thunder for portraying a singer, and Malek didn't even really sing but he did play one of the most famous lead singers of all time that also died tragically due to AIDS. Not only that but Lady Gaga was also getting a lot of attention as the Best Actress winner before it became really apparent that it was Close vs. Colman. I could be really wrong because I thought Cooper would win right after I saw ASIB, but then I saw Bohemian Rhapsody and despite the poor reviews when it was clear it was going to be a juggernaut at the box office, I thought that pretty much nailed it for Malek because similar to Judy this year, my gut was telling me that there was no way that such a sympathetic real life figure would lose when their film was a huge hit at the box office. (I know Judy didn't have the box office part, but Zellweger had no competition in the end for whatever reason.) Then the critics awards happened, and Cooper just did terribly all season. I don't know if it was because he didn't campaign enough, or critics thought that he was safe, or they just preferred Gaga more, but he ended up behind Malek in the end, 2018 Film Awards and Nominations. I know that this includes the televised awards, but still even during the season, it was just mostly Hawke with sometimes Bale placing and even Malek and Mortensen scoring a few wins. I know critics and award voters often go their own ways, but I don't think Cooper was able to recover from focusing on getting a director's nomination versus possibly winning for acting. Also even though it got 8 nominations, I feel that it underperformed in the end in only winning Best Original Song. It went from early on being this huge box office success where Cooper worked miracles with Lady Gaga that critics also put their stamp of approval that could possibly win Best Picture, and was the favorite to win both leading acting categories, to only scoring one win at the Globes even though the film felt tailor made for them. It did get a SAG Ensemble nomination and Best Film nomination at BAFTA, but Cooper lost Best First-Time Feature Film Director to Bo Burnham and the Director's branch snubbed him. I know Vice could have done better too, but I think that with the Globes and even Critics Choice win that Bale emerged as the alternative to Malek. He was playing a divisive person, but he had the transformation factor. Wow, this is really impressively long, concise, well-thought out, and took my small-sized brain forever to actually process. I actually agree about Cooper. I don't even think he was close, even though the academy loves the guy as an actor. Like I get the arguments that Zeb laid out, but I feel like if Cooper really was that high on the best actor totem pole list, he would have gotten that director nomination. A Star is Born basically underperformed everywhere even with how popular it was, whereas Vice did the exact opposite scenario. It makes complete sense why Bale could have been second beyond Malek. If anything it might have been even closer then we imagined.
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coop032
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Post by coop032 on Mar 23, 2020 3:07:02 GMT
Christian Bale - Vice Glenn Close - The Wife Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emma Stone - The Favourite
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Post by dadsburgers on Mar 23, 2020 16:34:29 GMT
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Glenn Close, The Wife Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
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