Well, it is that time again!!! Like last year, there will not be an actual poll until April. This thread will be used to establish the contenders for our first official poll. So below, please post what movie you think will win best picture next year.
Da 5 Bloods - Spike Lee ........it's gonna be a rough year ......for me anyway.......but supposedly it's my kind of film, a friend saw it and raved it.
raved? Wow. Did he say anything about nods?
He just said it rocked and was poignant too and he knows I'm not a big Spike Lee fan but said "I would love it" (he meant it, not being sarcastic) so he was sort of preparing me for it - it is a Netflix film .........so.......it either breaks the streak ....or not. He usually has good taste and I think someone else on here saw it also actually (iheartamyadams maybe?)
I do think the News of the World is primed to be a big player too based on Hanks (who could easily win this year) and it's release date (Dec 25th) and it's subject matter in a Trump election year (the power of the press) but that's just on paper, I don't know anyone who's seen it........
I don't even know what to guess yet because nothing jumps out as a Best Picture winner to me yet. Of course maybe that's for the best since the frontrunner(s) hasn't made it all the way to the end in quite sometime. It seemed like maybe OUATIH or The Irishman, at least for a brief second, could do it, but it didn't happen for them.
It's interesting about Da 5 Bloods because I've heard both good and bad things about it, so I'm not sure what the reception for it will be. I just know it's long, and that worries me because it doesn't seem like voters want to watch long films even at home. Plus there's the Netflix factor. I don't know there's a bias as much as it's just difficult for films on Netflix to have the same positives as something like Parasite or Knives Out did at the box office. Word of mouth is definitely a factor, but not being able to track how many people have seen a film for sure, also factors into it as well.
I don't think Mank will win Best Picture, but I'll just go for it right now because I think it's most likely to be nominated, and should be solid unlike something like The French Dispatch which could turn out to be big but makes me think it's going to be received like most Anderson films. Below the nominations, writing, and maybe directing and picture, but I think no above the line wins. Or Nomadland which could have a narrative with Chloe Zhao also having The Eternals, but it seems like it's been in post awhile.
Maybe it's finally Paul Greengrass's time with News of the World?
Next Goal Wins could be something voters love too because it seems to be in that Green Book/Jojo Rabbit message movie that's entertaining with a heart sweet spot, but I think critics are going to be even more out for blood because they didn't stop Jojo Rabbit's awards run too much. I don't think they'll matter too much, but also box office wise Fassbender isn't exactly a draw, so it could end up following the same path as Jojo Rabbit pretty much in that on paper it has all the right ingredients to win, but can't close the deal because it doesn't all come together for it.
Of course there's Nightmare Alley which I will predict for nominations, but I don't think that del Toro can win BP twice in a row, maybe director, although I'm doubting that since AGI just did it, and it took a really long time for someone to finally do that again.
I don't think Amsterdam will be done this year, but if it is, I guess it's a possibility. I really hope not, lol, although maybe I'll end up liking it, but there's usually a few films with the expanded lineup that I don't like, and I can see Amsterdam being one of those. I don't know if a reverse jinx will work where by predicting it to be nominated for BP it misses, but I'm going to try it now, lol.
Wildcards: I won't predict them to win or be nominated yet, but they are on my radar.
Tenet - Maybe it will be the big technological wonder of the year that often wins BD except for last year. There's also Dune I guess, but I think that if they do award Dune, they'll wait until it's completed like with LOTR.
Annette - I know this is terrible of me with how serious the coronavirus is, but I keep hoping that the Cannes Film Festival isn't canceled because of it. Anyhow this might be too out there plus Amazon doesn't inspire a lot of hope after how badly they did last year, but the year before they were able to get Pawlikowski a Best Director nomination so I hope it's more like that Amazon plus the Manchester by the Sea Amazon. Still even if it's not an awards movie, I hope it turns out well.
Those Who Wish Me Dead - Sheridan is on the Oscar's radar now, so I expect that he'll be nominated for BD someday. Not really sure about this film though. It could be Jolie's comeback, but she's so bad at choosing projects that I have doubts.
Films that I'm not confident in that everyone else probably is:
West Side Story - I guess it could rack up a lot of nominations, but I think it's a pretty tall order to compare to the original even if it's got Spielberg and Kushner behind it.
Don't Look Up - It depends if voters still like McKay or not. As that one thread about directors who Oscars love for a short time, maybe the love affair is still going, but eventually I do think it will end like it did with Marshall and Daldry. Also I know this has the climate change factor and could potentially be big depending on how Lawrence's comeback goes this year, but I just wish it were basically anyone except McKay directing. Plus Netflix has like a billion other films, and while they were able to do pretty well last year with their slate, I would guess that Mank and Da 5 Bloods have the best chance of being as big as The Irishman and Marriage Story, while something like Hillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom seems like The Two Popes of the year where Close, Adams, and Davis get in just about everywhere but nothing else does from their films.
On the Rocks - Maybe it will be a return to form for Coppola, but I'm sort of surprised by the amount of predictions I see for this and Murray. I know they both had LiT, but that was almost 20 years ago now, and I don't really think Murray is that well liked at all. I mean he has his fans like Coppola and Anderson of course, but I don't think many fans in the industry.
The films I will irrationally stan until I finally accept the truth:
The Last Duel - So many red flags already, but I'm still going to have hope that maybe it will surprise in a good way.
Blonde - I just hope for de Armas's sake it does work out, and that she does end up being nominated for Best Actress because I see that a lot of people are predicting her right now at various sites. It seems like it might be too out there unless de Armas is the critics' favorite which is definitely possible, but I also feel that Blonde could be one of those "this had buzz" films that gets heavily predicted early on but flops.
West Side Story. I think there's big possibilities there, with one of the masters of the medium tackling a new genre. The original despite some beautiful techs and music, actually felt to me quite deficient script-wise.
Hmm... well last time Trump got elected, the response was Moonlight winning its massive upset victory... and I honestly think this is an important thing to keep in mind, too. I'm not too sure of what the upcoming "contenders" are, and like always I think the ultimate winner is something that's not on anyone's radar yet, but for now I'll piggyback on that Da 5 Bloods pick.
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 6, 2020 2:15:15 GMT
If abortion rights and access continue to get gutted and if Trump wins in November, I could see it being Never Rarely Sometimes Always and I'm making that my answer for the time being. This far out it looks much too niche and indie but so did Moonlight. Who knows what could happen, but I do feel confident that the voting will skew political if Trump wins. If not NRSA, it'll be something else.
It looks to be a strong year but I don't see anything that screams like a winner on paper so I'll go with The Trial of the Chicago 7, as bland as it might be (or not), it fits with a political winner after the next election.
"The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois."