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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 26, 2020 15:04:33 GMT
Phoenix, Hanks (especially), Hopkins no repeat females (?)....... anybody else with a strong shot out of last years 10 acting nominees?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2020 15:07:41 GMT
Well, Ronan seems to always be in the conversation, so I wouldn't count her out for Ammonite.
If she's nominated, she would break Winslet's record for youngest to 5 nominations by the way.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 26, 2020 15:52:31 GMT
Right now I'm thinking Hanks, Hopkins and Ronan.
EDIT: Completely forgot about Robbie. If Amsterdam is this year I think she's in as well.
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Post by stephen on Feb 26, 2020 16:04:26 GMT
Ronan feels likeliest -- she has Neon behind her (who's now a big player post- Parasite) and she certainly feels like she's gonna be just scooping up nods until she eventually wins. Hopkins would be next, and not all that far behind, either. I get the sense he'll be this year's Frank Langella in 2008: a strong early contender who goes the distance, but winds up just being a nominee. Still, the role is plum and the distributor is great. Hanks got a nice  back from the drought he'd been going through, and he does have Universal behind him, but it remains to be seen if that Mr. Rogers nod was a one-off. I don't have faith in anything A24 puts out nowadays because they've been misfiring left, right and center since Lisa Taback left. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 26, 2020 16:35:03 GMT
Hopkins and Ronan seem to be the most possible, especially the former.
Banderas for playing Lamborghini might have a chance although I don't think so. Same goes for Adam Driver for that Ridley Scott project.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Feb 26, 2020 16:38:39 GMT
Ammonite looks like a player for Ronan,although I could definitely live with her not getting another nomination so soon.Margot Robbie could get another nod if that David O.Russell film is ready in time.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 26, 2020 17:05:40 GMT
Some thoughts in this thread and some other "prognosticating" threads leave me slightly baffled tbh. Hanks is imo the favorite to WIN next year not just be nodded - his nod this year was a set-up for that win scenario (like the De Niro snub last year sets him up in 2021 for a win). Hanks is playing a role related to the media which is going to hit right after Trump wins re-election (I guess?) and uses that to put the screws to the media again. I don't want to say he's a lock obviously but he's got the role and the right issue behind him. Meanwhile in the who gets nodded how many times in the future thread - people were listing Denzel Washington for FOUR more nods at age 65+ - that's possible but it's unprecedented - and people also said he has "an impressive series of films" when he doesn't really actually does he (?) - he has Macbeth and Little Things - Macbeth I'm dying to see myself but no American has an Oscar nod for Shakespeare in 70 years (since Brando) and Little Things "seems" more mainstream but maybe it will surprise.......... but it's not anywhere near as baity as Hanks' upcoming projects at all. Come on people - get your heads in the game on this stuff for Godsakes (kidding, kidding  ) Ronan in Ammonite sounds good to me too can't believe I forgot her - I can see both actresses getting in ....... |
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Post by stephen on Feb 26, 2020 23:16:25 GMT
Hanks is imo the favorite to WIN next year not just be nodded - his nod this year was a set-up for that win scenario (like the De Niro snub last year sets him up in 2021 for a win). Hanks is playing a role related to the media which is going to hit right after Trump wins re-election (I guess?) and uses that to put the screws to the media again. I don't want to say he's a lock obviously but he's got the role and the right issue behind him. I mean, this is just as bizarre to speculate upon as not. Hanks could win a third time, but he's been out of the game for so long that it remains to be seen if his recent nomination was a sign that the Academy's willing to welcome him back into the proverbial fold or if it was a one-off due to an extremely compressed year (I imagine he, and Hopkins, would've been at great risk at the season played out in the normal timeframe). It also remains to be seen if the role is good against his presumed competition (some of which look quite baity and have strong studios behind them). Also, hardly anyone cared enough about De Niro getting "snubbed" this year to think that he's got it in him to win for Killers of the Flower Moon. If he wins, it won't have anything to do with getting shut out for The Irishman. |
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Post by morton on Feb 26, 2020 23:21:03 GMT
Actors - Anthony Hopkins for The Father seems likeliest right now to me. Even with this category seeming like there are a lot of contenders right now, he has SPC behind him and a comeback narrative from last year. He probably won't campaign at all, but I think he'll be okay for the nomination since Colman and Zeller will campaign on behalf of the film.
Tom Hanks - Great buzz so far, but I think it was from Pete Hammond so who knows. Still News of the World feels like it could win Best Picture to me out of all the top contenders. (I'm guessing whatever wins will be something that no one or most no one predicts again though.)
Joaquin Phoenix - I could see him getting an afterglow nomination, and I think Mike Mills is definitely on the verge of breaking out in a big way similar to Noah Baumbach last year. However, after reading someone's script review, I'm a little hesitant because it seems like either voters will really like the "weirdness", for a lack of a better word, or not get it. Plus A24 already has Minari on their plate and other stuff, and they've done so badly with the Oscars the past two years that I don't think this will get a great push from them unless they're able to lure Lisa Taback, doubtful because Netflix has such deep pockets, or they can hire someone like her which is also probably doubtful.
Adam Driver - Not really sure because both of his projects are iffy, but I feel obligated here. It's possible Annette could be the big foreign breakout this year, if there is one, but it could also be too weird or even worse maybe not be any good. Then there's The Last Duel which is going to generate so much discourse that I'm already scared, and Ridley Scott tends to be miss when he's making a period film. Still Supporting Actor is looking weaker than leading so far, and a villainous perhaps sympathetic role could be enough with him being on his third nomination. I know Delroy Lindo is favored for Da 5 Bloods, and while I'd rather he win because Driver could win later on while this might be Lindo's last chance, and even with hearing good things about it, I've also heard bad things about the film. Plus the running time and Netflix having so many potential films to campaign again makes me weary. There's also Steven Yeun who I would also like to see win, but I don't want to get my hopes up too much about an Asian American actor being nominated let alone winning.
Actresses - Saoirse Ronan seems likely for a Supporting Actress nomination for Ammonite. I've heard really great things about it, and plus it has Neon. I would guess that she goes supporting while Winslet is placed in leading.
Margot Robbie - Assuming Amsterdam comes out this year and isn't another Joy situation, and even then Robbie would probably be nominated, I think this might be Robbie's winning role. (Of course I thought that with Mary Queen of Scots after I saw her deglam, and before I knew how tiny her part was in OUATIH, so I might be jinxing her lol.) I don't know if it will come out this year though since 20th Century already has so much else.
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Post by countjohn on Feb 26, 2020 23:47:37 GMT
Saoirse is definitely the most likely. The Academy seems to love her right now (three lead nods in five years and she took a year off in that span) and the movie sounds like their kind of thing these days.
Hanks is second most likely. I just have some pause there because it's clear the Academy hasn't been on fire for him since the 90's, he's been snubbed plenty of times for otherwise well received movies and the nod last year just felt like a filler make up nod. Plus an Elvis movie just seems ripe for Haterade backlash these days even if it's good (OMgee, CUlTuRAl AppRopRIaTiOn sO pRoBlemATiC!11!1!!)
With Phoenix the movie just sounds too niche like all the indie stuff he often does. Unless he has a higher status now after Joker and will get nominated for that stuff but I don't know.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 27, 2020 0:07:47 GMT
Hanks is imo the favorite to WIN next year not just be nodded - his nod this year was a set-up for that win scenario (like the De Niro snub last year sets him up in 2021 for a win). Hanks is playing a role related to the media which is going to hit right after Trump wins re-election (I guess?) and uses that to put the screws to the media again. I don't want to say he's a lock obviously but he's got the role and the right issue behind him. I mean, this is just as bizarre to speculate upon as not. Also, hardly anyone cared enough about De Niro getting "snubbed" this year to think that he's got it in him to win for Killers of the Flower Moon. If he wins, it won't have anything to do with getting shut out for The Irishman. Well of course it's bizarre that's what makes it fun  - just saying Hanks has all the pieces - the role and a narrative (for the type of role it is) and a release date that favor him on paper imo ........ Also the day that Killers of the Flower Moon comes out there will be talk about how he missed for The Irishman - I'll send you the links then I guess - and also how it's his last Scorsese pic. It will clearly factor into his campaign and be part of the narrative. How you can say "it won't have anything to do with getting shut out for The Irishman" is way of base to me, it will be part of it obviously imo ..........but that's a 2021 discussion. |
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Post by stephen on Feb 27, 2020 3:34:41 GMT
Well of course it's bizarre that's what makes it fun - just saying Hanks has all the pieces - the role and a narrative (for the type of role it is) and a release date that favor him on paper imo ........ Also the day that Killers of the Flower Moon comes out there will be talk about how he missed for The Irishman - I'll send you the links then I guess - and also how it's his last Scorsese pic. It will clearly factor into his campaign and be part of the narrative. How you can say "it won't have anything to do with getting shut out for The Irishman" is way of base to me, it will be part of it obviously imo ..........but that's a 2021 discussion. Hanks has a few pros in his column for sure, but there's a reason that elusive third Oscar win has been such a rare feat. I feel like Hanks will win his third eventually, but I wonder if he has to build momentum like Streep did from 2006-11, with several consecutive nominations before people are reminded that, hey, he is a legend and could ride an overdue narrative of his own. De Niro, eh, I feel like it was quite telling that he didn't get in when his movie hit pretty much everywhere else this year. A major factor was the de-aging, which I think alienated a lot of voters (and I would be very interested to hear what actors feel about that whole concept in the first place, and whether they feel that too much CGI can be an ultimate detractor in judging a performance's quality -- where does De Niro's work stop and the computer wizardry start?). But I just feel like De Niro hit a wall long ago, and it took a massive hit from Weinstein at his peak to get him out of his awards drought in 2012. And having read The Killers of the Flower Moon, it's just hard to see that character on the page being an Oscar-winning role. But who knows -- I expect there to be some massive restructuring of the narrative for Scorsese's sensibilities. Still, even if he does pick up some momentum and wins for that, I don't think it'll be on the back of a hue and cry over a perceived snub in 2019. It'll be like what I think would happen with Hanks: a beloved two-time winner who finally wins his third, and you can chalk The Irishman to providing some goodwill along the way, but not the idea that he was snubbed for it. No one seemed particularly shocked by it or distressed about him missing out. |
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Post by futuretrunks on Feb 27, 2020 4:45:32 GMT
I think De Niro is probably over as a thing outside of comic roles. Only O. Russell has made good use of him in recent years. You could have plugged Dustin Hoffman in The Godfather Part II or Raging Bull or Taxi Driver and gotten the same results or better. It's Cape Fear and the King of Comedy that show what De Niro can do, and that's more akin to O. Russell's dramedy realm. Scorsese found himself more as a dramatic director as he aged, while De Niro became brilliant at comedy and more granitic dramatically; they don't mesh well right now, and they frankly only did intermittently in the past.
Greengrass is a let-down more often than not. Could easily be some Homesman 2.0 thing.
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Post by mattfincher on Feb 27, 2020 5:55:21 GMT
Hopkins seems almost certain for a nod, no? Sundance hype can be misleading, but those reviews are euphoric. I'm highly skeptical he can actually win given his unwillingness to campaign and the fact his film is unlikely to factor into many (if any) other categories, but SPC are usually a good bet to get their actors in. Tough field on paper though.
I don't know whether Hanks is back in with the Academy or not. I mean, yes, he got nominated again, but I do think had the season been stretched out a bit Song Kang-ho would have bumped out one of he or Hopkins. The compressed schedule + Globes speech while voting was on sealed his nom. You eliminate those two factors and I think it's entirely possible he would have been snubbed again. Also, as noted, Best Actor looks like he's going to be a bloodbath again.
Phoenix will need (ironically given Joker's divisive reception) critics in his corner. Mills is a very low-key filmmaker, so critics will have to boost him. But even if critics love Phoenix, they may be a tad reticent to honor him the year after he won an Oscar for a movie they (by and large) didn't like.
Driver is the actor of the moment and an Oscar at some point this decade seems an inevitability. I have no doubt Annette will be great, but it's Leo Carax which means... good luck with the Academy. The Last Duel is on the other end of the spectrum. It might be in the Academy's wheelhouse if it's good, but you're banking on Ridley Scott who has an increasingly poor batting average.
Ronan seems likely given the sheer bait of her film and the fact her role will probably border on being a lead.
Robbie is possible if the DOR movie comes out this year, but I get the sense people are increasingly down on DOR as a filmmaker. Joy was a miss and his 3 other Oscar movies that hit seemed to have aged poorly in a lot of people's estimations (especially American Hustle).
So for now I'd predict Hopkins and Ronan.
Here's my thing about De Niro. Yes, some people feel he should have been nodded this year, but he wasn't even close to the person people were most outraged about (that's Sandler), so I don't know how much that will really factor into Killers of the Flower Moon. The real factor there will be having both DiCaprio and De Niro nominated for their first time together with Scorsese. I haven't read the book or anything, so I have no idea about the dynamics of the role. But I'm sure there will be a sense this could be the last time to nominate him/give him a third win, which may also help.
However, I'm sort of reticent to the idea De Niro missing this year has been deemed some grave injustice by the masses. De Niro just doesn't seem to have the energy he once did on screen, which will make me skeptical of any future nod/win. I thought he was fine in Irishman, but he was basically getting scenes stripped from him left and right by Pacino and especially Pesci.
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back from the drought he'd been going through, and he does have Universal behind him, but it remains to be seen if that Mr. Rogers nod was a one-off.
)
- just saying Hanks has all the pieces - the role and a narrative (for the type of role it is) and a release date that favor him on paper imo ........
