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Post by mattfincher on Feb 25, 2020 20:49:48 GMT
Limit it strictly to acting. I know some of these guys write, produce, direct, but leave that out. I simply merged futuretrunks listed, but added a few more as well. I kept actors who were 70+ out of it as he did, because their potential is naturally more limited. Add whichever actors you feel are applicable/you think I missed.
Matt Damon: 2 more nominations, including 1 win. Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 2 more nominations. Denzel Washington: 3 more nominations, including 1 more win. Johnny Depp: Will not be nominated again. George Clooney: 1 more nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio: 5 more nominations, including 1 more win. Christian Bale: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. Tom Hanks: 2 more nominations, including 1 more win. Robert Downey Jr.: 1 more nomination. Joaquin Phoenix: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. Daniel Day-Lewis: ??? Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations. Bradley Cooper: 4 more nominations, including 1 win. Viggo Mortensen: 1 more nomination, including 1 win. Sean Penn: Will not be nominated again. Russell Crowe: 1 more nomination. Ralph Fiennes: 1 more nomination, including 1 win. Matthew McConaughey: 1 more nomination. Will Smith: 1 more nomination. Jude Law: 1 more nomination. Bill Murray: 1 more nomination, including 1 win. Edward Norton: 1 more nomination. Hugh Jackman: 1 more nomination. Willem Dafoe: 2 more nominations, including 1 win.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 25, 2020 21:02:58 GMT
Good thread - just the ones I have a stronger feel for:
Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 2 more nominations. Denzel Washington: 2 more nominations to get to 10, including 1 more win to get to 3.
Leonardo DiCaprio: 6+ more nominations, including 1-2 more wins. I think he breaks Nicholson's record actually. His pace is remarkable - he'll surpass Nicholson/Pacino for Globes too and they are high at 17/18 - might catch Lemmon even at 22. Doubt it at your peril......
Christian Bale: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. Tom Hanks: 3-4 more nominations, including 1 more win possibly next year to get to 3
Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more nominations Daniel Day-Lewis: he's done, not coming back
Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations Bradley Cooper: 3 more nominations, including 1 win Sean Penn: 1 to 2 nominations Russell Crowe: 0
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Post by mattfincher on Feb 25, 2020 21:07:10 GMT
Good thread - just the ones I have a stronger feel for: Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 2 more nominations. Denzel Washington: 2 more nominations to get to 10, including 1 more win to get to 3. Leonardo DiCaprio: 6+ more nominations, including 1-2 more wins. I think he breaks Nicholson's record actually. His pace is remarkable - he'll surpass Nicholson/Pacino for Globes too and they are high at 17/18 - might catch Lemmon even at 22. Doubt it at your peril...... Christian Bale: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. Tom Hanks: 3-4 more nominations, including 1 more win possibly next year to get to 3 Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more nominations Daniel Day-Lewis: he's done, not coming back Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations Bradley Cooper: 3 more nominations, including 1 win Sean Penn: 1 to 2 nominations Russell Crowe: 0 I'm probably going too small on DiCaprio, but it seems like he's only going to do one movie every 2-3 years from here on out which makes me tentative. I could see as many as 8 more nominations and 2 more wins, though. Also might be low on Cooper. I know a lot on here aren't convinced he's a great (nor am I), but he seems fully invested in doing nothing but Oscar bait.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Feb 25, 2020 21:16:40 GMT
Obviously assuming no one dies young or gets Me-Too'ed or anything.
Matt Damon: 3 more nominations, with 1 win.
Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 3 more nominations.
Denzel Washington: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. I think he's gonna tie Jack.
Johnny Depp: I think he's done.
George Clooney: I could see him retiring from acting soon, so I'll say none.
Leonardo DiCaprio: 6 more nominations, including 1 more win. Another guy that ties Jack. This is assuming he works at the pace he's currently at. Who knows if he becomes more prolific as he gets older.
Christian Bale: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win.
Tom Hanks: 2 more nominations.
Robert Downey Jr.: 3 more nominations, with 1 win. (I don't know why, but I'm bullish on him)
Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more nominations.
Daniel Day-Lewis: I'll believe him for now that he's retired.
Gary Oldman: 3 more nominations.
Bradley Cooper: 5 more nominations, with 1 win.
Viggo Mortensen: 2 more nominations.
Sean Penn: I agree with you.
Russell Crowe: I think he's done.
Ralph Fiennes: 2 more nominations, with 1 win.
Matthew McConaughey: I think he's done
Will Smith: 2 more nominations.
Jude Law: 3 more nominations.
Bill Murray: I think he's done
Edward Norton: This one's tough, I'll underestimate him and say he's done for now.
Hugh Jackman: 2 more nominations.
Willem Dafoe: 3 more nominations, including 1 win.
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Post by mattfincher on Feb 25, 2020 21:18:06 GMT
Hardest ones for me:
Penn: Great rep as an actor, but when was the last time he was in a good movie, and do people even like him at this point?
McConaughey: I know he's beloved on here, but the guy has had a horrible stretch since Interstellar and doesn't have anything promising on the horizon at the moment. He might just be done with the prestige game.
Murray: I think people really want him to have an Oscar, but only one nomination in his career, which he lost despite being in the hunt for always makes me wonder if his industry rep is more divisive than that of his public.
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Post by futuretrunks on Feb 25, 2020 21:36:01 GMT
Matt Damon: 3 more nominations, including 1 win. Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 4 more nominations. Denzel Washington: 4 more nominations, no more wins. Johnny Depp: 1 more nomination. George Clooney: Will not be nominated again. Leonardo DiCaprio: 7 more nominations, including 2 more wins. Christian Bale: 5 more nominations, including 1 more win. Tom Hanks: 4 more nominations, no more wins. Robert Downey Jr.: No more nominations. Joaquin Phoenix: 4 more nominations, no more wins. Daniel Day-Lewis: 1 more nomination, no more wins. Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations, 1 more win. Bradley Cooper: 5 more nominations, no wins. Viggo Mortensen: 1 more nomination, no wins. Sean Penn: Will not be nominated again. Russell Crowe: 1 more nomination. Ralph Fiennes: 1 more nomination. Matthew McConaughey: No more nominations. Will Smith: 2 more nominations. Jude Law: 1 more nomination. Bill Murray: No more nominations. Edward Norton: 1 more nomination. Hugh Jackman: 1 more nomination. Willem Dafoe: 2 more nominations, no wins.
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Post by mattfincher on Feb 25, 2020 21:38:03 GMT
A couple I forgot:
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Mark Wahlberg randomly wins an Oscar in his 70s for playing some foul-mouthed uncle. Not dissimilar to the performance he lost to.
Mark Ruffalo and Ethan Hawke seem like two who are destined to win at some point. I think they both will, and add a couple noms along the way.
And I'm gonna say Ben Affleck gets an acting nomination at some point, probably in supporting.
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 25, 2020 21:58:00 GMT
Hardest ones for me: Penn: Great rep as an actor, but when was the last time he was in a good movie, and do people even like him at this point? McConaughey: I know he's beloved on here, but the guy has had a horrible stretch since Interstellar and doesn't have anything promising on the horizon at the moment. He might just be done with the prestige game. Murray: I think people really want him to have an Oscar, but only one nomination in his career, which he lost despite being in the hunt for always makes me wonder if his industry rep is more divisive than that of his public. I feel like Penn can (and probably will) network himself to another Oscar nod. His career went majorly downhill, but the guy has a lot of friends in the industry, and he's starting to call in those favors. He hasn't had any sort of win in a very long time, yet he's managed to get in Julia Roberts new TV project (which will probably be decent since it's from Sam Esmail, who had a success in Homecoming with Roberts). Penn is friends with Roberts through her participation in his Haiti charity, so it's no shock he got himself in that. I feel like Penn will end up in a supporting role in a Leonardo DiCaprio or Bradley Cooper (two guys he's very, very chummy with) Oscarbait at some point and score a supporting nod out of it. I think McConaughey will get nodded again, even if it's not anytime soon. When he's a bit older, he'll be cornering the market on these grizzled, good ol' boy types that used to go straight to Robert Duvall and Clint Eastwood, and now mostly Jeff Bridges. McConaughey is one Hell Or High Water type role/movie that's perfectly tailored to him from being nodded again, even if it's in his 60's.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 25, 2020 21:58:54 GMT
Also keep in mind that a lot of these guys have done leads mostly in their career and eventually may hit a wall - that always happens. To get nods as you get older it's almost necessary to switch up to supporting roles.
These are the only nominees over 70 in BA - no one has done it twice in BA yet just once each - whereas in BSA Plummer has 3 after 80 etc.
Only 1 winner in BA over age 63 also btw.
Farnsworth Dern Fonda Eastwood O'Toole
Freeman Pryce Olivier Langella Newman
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Feb 25, 2020 22:07:14 GMT
Just going to do some of these. Needless to say, these are blind guesses and I'll probably be way off on most of these.
Brad Pitt: 2 more feels right. I think an afterglow is on the cards for him in the next 5 years, and then maybe 1 more toward the end of his career. I don't think he'll win again.
Johnny Depp: 1 more. Think Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. He won't win.
Leonardo DiCaprio: 4 more. It's really hard to say where he'll go from here. He got nominated for his previous 3 performances, which is quite a run, but there is no way of saying how long he can keep that up for. There is a possibility that he gets more prolific once he hits 55 and the opportunities drop but also that he Day-Lewises his career and retires early, so I won't go crazy with the prediction. I'm pretty sure he'll win his 2nd Oscar, though.
Christian Bale: 3 more. I think he's going to be pretty prolific and he is the among the 3 most respected actors of his generation, but I have a feeling career longevity at the top level is going to be a challenge for him. Probably wins 1 more (in Lead this time), but it's not a given.
Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more. He's probably going to keep doing what he's been doing for the past decade and he is also among the 3 most respected actors of his generation, but I don't know how his career is going to be when he hits 60 or something. A Penn-like downturn wouldn't surprise me. I'll say he probably won't win again.
Bradley Cooper: 2 more. Yeah, I'm getting strong Clooney vibes from him. I think he's going to get a couple of nominations and a win in the next 10 years and won't get another acting nomination again.
Daniel Day-Lewis: I think he's retired, so 0.
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Post by futuretrunks on Feb 25, 2020 22:20:23 GMT
Just going to do some of these. Needless to say, these are blind guesses and I'll probably be way off on most of these. Brad Pitt: 2 more feels right. I think an afterglow is on the cards for him in the next 5 years, and then maybe 1 more toward the end of his career. I don't think he'll win again. Johnny Depp: 1 more. Think Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. He won't win. Leonardo DiCaprio: 4 more. It's really hard to say where he'll go from here. He got nominated for his previous 3 performances, which is quite a run, but there is no way of saying how long he can keep that up for. There is a possibility that he gets more prolific once he hits 55 and the opportunities drop but also that he Day-Lewises his career and retires early, so I won't go crazy with the prediction. I'm pretty sure he'll win his 2nd Oscar, though. Christian Bale: 3 more. I think he's going to be pretty prolific and he is the among the 3 most respected actors of his generation, but I have a feeling career longevity at the top level is going to be a challenge for him. Probably wins 1 more (in Lead this time), but it's not a given. Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more. He's probably going to keep doing what he's been doing for the past decade and he is also among the 3 most respected actors of his generation, but I don't know how his career is going to be when he hits 60 or something. A Penn-like downturn wouldn't surprise me. I'll say he probably won't win again. Bradley Cooper: 2 more. Yeah, I'm getting strong Clooney vibes from him. I think he's going to get a couple of nominations and a win in the next 10 years and won't get another acting nomination again.
Daniel Day-Lewis: I think he's retired, so 0. I think Cooper challenges himself more than Clooney, and is much more respected as a technician. Like I can see Cooper doing British films with an accent. But yeah, if Cooper gets diminishing returns from his self-directed films, and strays from O. Russell, he could lose serious momentum.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Feb 25, 2020 22:22:51 GMT
I think Cooper challenges himself more than Clooney, and is much more respected as a technician. Like I can see Cooper doing British films with an accent. But yeah, if Cooper gets diminishing returns from his self-directed films, and strays from O. Russell, he could lose serious momentum. Yeah, this is a crap shoot, who really knows how it will turn out. It's hard enough making Oscar predictions for 2020 and not coming out of it looking like a moron
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 25, 2020 22:24:36 GMT
Javier Bardem has become something of the forgotten man these days. I recall when he used to be in the thick of these type of conversations. He's had a career downturn as well, but he still has arty Spanish films to fall back on if all else fails.
I think Bardem has 1-2 or nominations at most left in him. Probably one in an Almodavar or something. No more wins.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 25, 2020 23:14:56 GMT
I'm sure I'm going to be way off on these, lol.
Matt Damon: So far he doesn't really get nominated that much considering how young he was when he got his first nomination, and he's only up to 3 now, so about one a decade. So I guess 3 more nominations, and 1 win. Tom Cruise: Zero unless he happens to win the honorary Oscar. I feel he's done. Brad Pitt: 2 more nominations seems right. An afterglow nomination as Good God mentioned, and probably something else.
Denzel Washington: 3 more nominations, including 1 more win.
Johnny Depp: It depends on whether he can get his life back together now. If he can in the near future, I think he'd have enough goodwill to actually win, but since that seems doubtful, I'll say 1 more nomination and probably no wins now unless he wins the honorary one. George Clooney: He is making a comeback, but I'm sort of hesitant because he's been out of the film awards game now for awhile. I'll say 1 more though because he is still well liked.
Leonardo DiCaprio: 7 more nominations, including at least 1 more win. I think he breaks Nicholson's nomination record, and has a possibility to tie his winning record.
Christian Bale: 4 more nominations, and 1 leading win. I worry about his heart though with how much the losing and gaining weight must have affected him, so I do wonder if he'll retire early.
Tom Hanks: 2 more nominations. If he doesn't win this year, I don't think he'll win again.
Robert Downey Jr.: He could be a wildcard. Assuming he just does what he's mostly been doing, maybe he gets like 1 nomination, but if he does start working with better directors and screenplays, I feel he could easily hit that sweet spot of voters showering him with nominations for anything he does for at least a short time, so it could go high as 3-5 nominations, and a win. He probably won't go that route, unfortunately, so maybe just 1 more because he lucks into something.
Joaquin Phoenix: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win.
Daniel Day-Lewis: Maybe 1 more nomination and 1 more leading win to tie Kate, but after that he's really done, maybe, lol.
Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations. He'll probably get nominated for Mank, so 1 more nomination seems reasonable. No more wins though.
Bradley Cooper: 4 more nominations, including 1 win.
Viggo Mortensen: 1 more nomination, including 1 win.
Sean Penn: I think he's got 1 more nomination left in him.
Russell Crowe: Maybe because he did get a Globe nomination, but I think he might be done for.
Ralph Fiennes: 3 more nominations, including 1 win. I'm going to will him to be the next Christopher Plummer if he still hasn't won by the time he's Plummer's age, and he's still working.
Matthew McConaughey: I think he might be done for. He's only 50, but I feel his choices plus the amount of goodwill he used up to win his first one, makes him unlikely to come back.
Will Smith: 2 more nominations including a win. I can see him winning, and then getting an afterglow nomination, but that's probably it.
Jude Law: Maybe 2 more nominations and a win in Supporting. I feel like he's still in demand even if his star fell a lot from his peak, and he'll eventually get another hot streak.
Bill Murray: I don't think he'll return. He's only ever received 1 nomination despite being the critical favorite for Rushmore, and even though he has his fans, I think he also has too many enemies.
Edward Norton: I don't see it; although, he did surprise me with Birdman. Just too much baggage I think.
Hugh Jackman: 2 more nominations and 1 more win. He just needs the right vehicle, so I see him like Smith in that if he wins, he'll get an afterglow nomination, but that's it for them.
Willem Dafoe: 1 more nomination and 1 win.
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Post by mattfincher on Feb 26, 2020 0:03:33 GMT
A lot of these guys should be in contention this year. Damon, Denzel (if Macbeth comes out this year), Bale, Cooper, Hanks, Smith, Oldman Phoenix, Murray. I don't know role specific for most, but while the Mank script is pretty dry, but I don't see any way Oldman isn't at least nominated. Especially given Fincher's hot streak of getting his leads nomination (4 films in a row now). It's basically Darkest Hour in Hollywood. Damon could have a big year. Cooper has a great part based on the book/original film. Hanks might be "back." Smith might be in the middle of a career comeback. Murray working with Sofia again etc.
DiCaprio and Pitt should be back in contention next year, too. Haven't read Killers of the Flower Moon, so can't speak to Leo's part, but him with Marty is an automatic contender at minimum. The Babylon script is pretty wild (think Chazelle doing his Boogie Nights/Magnolia) and it'll definitely be divisive, but Pitt's role is the most conventionally baity thing about it and maybe the most baity of his career. If he gets frauded into supporting (would be slightly less egregious than OUATIH), I don't see how he isn't nominated unless Chazelle and/or he completely screw it up. Don't think it's a spoiler given who his character is inspired by to say that he has a pretty tragic arc.
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 27, 2020 17:43:39 GMT
Matt Damon: 2 more nominations, including 1 win. Tom Cruise: 1 more nomination. Brad Pitt: 2 more nominations. Denzel Washington: 2 more nominations Johnny Depp: Will not be nominated again. George Clooney: 1 more nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio: 4 more nominations, including 1 more win. Christian Bale: 3 more nominations, including 1 more win tops. Tom Hanks: 2 more nominations. Robert Downey Jr.: 0-1 more nomination. Joaquin Phoenix: 3 more nominations, maybe 1 more win. Daniel Day-Lewis: Retired. Gary Oldman: 2 more nominations. Bradley Cooper: 1-2 more acting nominations, including 1 win. Viggo Mortensen: Will not be nominated again. Sean Penn: Will not be nominated again. Russell Crowe: 1 more nomination max. Ralph Fiennes: 1 more nomination. Matthew McConaughey: 1 more nomination. Will Smith: 0-1 more nomination. Jude Law: Will not be nominated again. Bill Murray: Will not be nominated again. Edward Norton: Will not be nominated again. Hugh Jackman: Will not be nominated again. Willem Dafoe: 1 more nomination, it will be his only win.
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