-I just realized I thought this was about whether or not an actor would be nominated, not who needs to be nominated first. Oh well I already typed all of this out, so I'm not going to delete it now.
Male:- Shia LaBeouf - Probably. Before last year, I would have answered no because I think he burnt too many bridges, but he seems sincere about getting his life and career back on track which goes a long way. He has definite rootability now, and if he keeps on this same path I think he'll at least get a nomination.
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt - No, I thought so at one time because he was a child actor made good, so he had that narrative. Plus he was on a hot streak there, but then he had a bunch of flops in a row, and dropped out. If people really missed him, I think he could comeback again, but I feel like he's not really missed. Not to say he didn't have any fans, but he always had a narrow niche. I think as he got older he's been replaced by other actors that can do more than just his narrow niche like Adam Driver and Eddie Redmayne, and if he goes the character actor route, it will probably be a long, long time before he gets nominated and maybe he could not be at all since there's unfortunately tons of character actors that don't ever get recognized like Steve Buscemi or Margo Martindale.
- Ewan McGregor - Maybe he's still in demand, and he seems to be well liked. I think he just needs that right role.
- Michael B. Jordan - Yes, it will definitely happen someday.
- Miles Teller - Maybe. He seemed to be really wanting that, but because of his age, I don't think he was taken that seriously because unfortunately with Whiplash, he didn't breakthrough in a way that Lucas Hedges and Timothee Chalamet both did with award bodies because all the focus was on J.K. Simmons. Now he seems to be switching gears; although, I don't know if he'll have much luck at the box office, but Top Gun should be a big hit at least. He's still young though, so I'll say yes for now. In 5-10 years, if this thread is revisited, I might change my mind depending on where his career is then.
- Sam Neill - Probably no. I guess he could be like a Jonathan Pryce type, but I don't really see it because there's so much competition in his age range for great roles, and sadly it's been awhile since he's gotten anything that's gotten buzz. Like Pryce at least had The Wife and while The Man Who Killed Don Quixote flopped, at least it got attention for Terry Gilliam finally completing it, and it had a young award buzzed actor in Driver in it too.
- Armie Hammer - Maybe. At one time I would have definitely said yes, but I don't know now. On paper, it seems like he's making good choices, but then it seems most of his choices don't work out. Plus at least every six months or so, he does something that pisses people off or makes people creeped out on social media, so I don't really know if he's particularly likable especially after so many actors got pissed about him being so self righteous about the Stan Lee picture thing. Maybe one day though because he is only 33, but I think there will be definite slap the stud syndrome for him for awhile. Coming from an extremely wealthy family probably doesn't help matters either.
- Richard Gere - Nope. He's always been ignored by Oscar, and I really don't think he'll ever have a huge comeback like that in his career especially with the industry being so sensitive about China now.
- David Oyelowo -Maybe but probably no, but I think it's a bad sign that his career really didn't take off after Selma.
- Ben Stiller - No, I don't think he'll ever be nominated for acting, but yes for directing, writing, and/or producing.
- Oscar Isaac - Probably. He's only 40, and he seems to be making better choices again, but I thought he'd already be nominated at this point in his career so sadly it may never happen for him because there's only 10 slots every year.
- Adam Sandler - No. He's talented, but I think Uncut Gems was it for him, and even the Globes wouldn't bite despite him being a huge star. I don't know that he'll ever get such a huge juicy role that critics are really behind and that he's even in contention for critics awards for given the fact that he's going to go back to doing mostly what he always does. I just don't think the critics will be there for him next time like the were for Uncut Gems, and without them he won't be able to get as far as he did this time imo.
- Colin Farrell - Yes. When he first came onto the scene it was a definite yes, then there was a time it was a definite no, but his career has had a lot of longevity, and now he just needs to find the right role.
- Jamie Bell - Maybe. He's only 33, and some voters probably still remember him from Billy Elliot, so he's got that going for him. Like Isaac though, there's only 10 slots a year, so there's no guarantee that he'll ever be nominated even though Rocketman seems like a good step for his career.
- Paul Dano - Maybe, but I'm going to say no because I feel he's done a lot of things that got awards traction but he was never really a part of that conversation. Sure he was younger, but I just don't see it. He feels like a Buscemi type in that they're both very talented, but large award groups just pay them dust for most if not all of their careers (at least for film, I know Buscemi finally broke out on the television side).
- Emile Hirsch - Nope, he's only 34, but I feel that he's burnt too many bridges and isn't talented enough to overcome that now.
- Robert Pattinson - A big yes. He's been very smart in working in indie films and getting a lot of cred from that, and is now ready for the big time with two huge movies. It's the perfect blend of acting cred plus leading man status.
- Christopher Abbott - Probably. He's only 34, and his career seems to be on the rise right now.
Female:- Emily Blunt - A big yes. She'll probably be the type to win on her first nomination.
- Rose Byrne - Probably. She's well liked and still very much in demand, but she just needs that right role.
- Elizabeth Olsen - Maybe, but I'm going to say no. I know she's only 31, but her big breakthrough Martha Marcy May Marlene didn't end up doing it for her, and then all the buzz for I Saw the Light turned out to be really wrong. I think there's just too much competition in her age range, and that's why she had to do something like Sorry for Your Loss which unfortunately is only on Facebook and WandaVision which is a Disney+ show.
- Sarah Paulson - Probably in supporting because she is an Emmy winner, and there seems to be a lot of crossover with older actresses that have won recent Emmys going on to win the Supporting Actress Oscar.
- Shailene Woodley - Yes. She's young, working with legends on Big Little Lies, and still getting recognition for her work.
- Chloë Grace Moretz - I want to say no, but I'll say yes because all she needs is that right role. She's only 23, and I think that she still has a lot of goodwill from being a former child actress whose been able to transition, somewhat successfully so far, to more mature roles. I think her career is on a definite downswing now, and I think she's being blown off screen in some of her films, but like I said I think she only needs that right role especially since I think the bar is lowered for her.
- Bryce Dallas Howard - Probably. I would have said yes when she first came onto the screen, but her career definitely didn't go the way that I thought. Still she keeps chugging along though, and she seems to be well liked and comes from a famous family, so probably in supporting one day.
- Kirsten Dunst - Yes. Hasn't made a huge comeback in film yet, but I keep hoping that she'll finally breakthrough.
- Claire Danes - Maybe. If Temple Grandin had been a film, she probably would have won the Oscar for that. Plus award groups loved her in Homeland too. If she's able to find the right role in film, then I think it can happen, but it doesn't really seem like she does films that often and when she does it's either in small nothing roles and/or movies that go nowhere. She's only 40 though, so she just needs a juicy supporting role like Laura Dern, Regina King, and Allison Janney were able to get.
- Charlotte Gainsbourg - A definite no.
- Maria Bello - No, sadly I think her window is closed, and now she's stuck doing CBS procedurals.
- Anna Faris - Probably not. She's very funny, but I don't think she'll ever be taken seriously enough now to get the right role and get enough support from voters to be nominated.
- Zendaya - Yes, I think it will happen. She's young, ambitious, and has a following.
- Blythe Danner - No, unfortunately I think I'll See You in My Dreams was probably her last shot.
- Elisabeth Moss - Yes, she just needs to find the right role and not something too indie.
- Evan Rachel Wood - I'm going to say no for probably what many will find a weird reason. I mean I know she's been nominated for an Emmy for Westworld and got somewhat close to an Oscar nomination a long time ago with Thirteen, but I feel like Rachel Brosnahan is like the new ERW because they look so much alike except slightly younger and less controversial. Obviously ERW will still work, but with Brosnahan being an "it" girl now because of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, I feel she'll get the better opportunities in film. Of course, she could end up being the next Claire Foy in that the film projects she does don't end up yielding any Oscar nominations, but Foy likely ended up in seventh or eighth for First Man which isn't too bad considering how much that film underperformed to the expectations that it had at the beginning of awards season.