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Post by DanQuixote on Aug 31, 2020 22:10:59 GMT
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 2. Kate Winslet, Ammonite 3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland 4. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy 5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday 6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect 7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit 8. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man 9. Jennifer Lawrence, Red White and Water 10. Halle Berry, Bruised
I have Meryl Streep (The Prom) and Olivia Colman (The Father) in Supporting for now, but they may be pushed here in the end.
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Post by akittystang on Sept 3, 2020 9:58:10 GMT
Is Elisabeth Moss eligible for Shirley?
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 3, 2020 12:42:40 GMT
Is Elisabeth Moss eligible for Shirley? She's eligible but she doesn't really have a chance in hell. She's more likely for The Invisible Man and even that is a LONG shot.
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Post by akittystang on Sept 11, 2020 7:15:02 GMT
I didn't think she had much of a shot, as much as I loved the film, I figured they wouldn't touch it.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 12, 2020 21:53:48 GMT
As things look now, I feel like Best Actress will likely come down to a race between Vanessa Kirby and Viola Davis.Kirby just won Best Actress in Venice, beating another Best Actress contender in Frances McDormand. Kirby has two raved performances at festivals so far, so has a lot of momentum. She's also "hot" (as in looks) and young, and fits the often typical ingenue profile of winners in this category. And she'll easily get that British bloc support ( BAFTA is probably ready to mail her the award already). Kirby has a lot of things in her favor. Davis is Davis. It's meant to be a hell of a baity role, and there's no chance she doesn't hammer it for all it's worth. She's seen as someone with the stature to have two Oscars. It's still a blemish that Halle Berry is the only African-American woman to have won Best Actress, so maybe some may have that on the back of their minds. On the negative side, Chadwick Boseman may end up soaking attention for her campaign, as some may feel as his last role, getting him the posthumous supporting Oscar is the biggest priority for their movie.
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Post by stephen on Sept 12, 2020 21:58:20 GMT
As things look now, I feel like Best Actress will likely come down to a race between Vanessa Kirby and Viola Davis.Kirby just won Best Actress in Venice, beating another Best Actress contender in Frances McDormand. Kirby has two raved performances at festivals so far, so has a lot of momentum. She's also "hot" (as in looks) and young, and fits the often typical ingenue profile of winners in this category. And she'll easily get that British bloc support ( BAFTA is probably ready to msil her the award already). Kirby has a lot of things in her favor. Davis is Davis. It's meant to be a hell of a baity role, and there's no chance she doesn't hammer it for all it's worth. She's seen as someone with the stature to have two Oscars. It's still a blemish that Halle Berry is the only African-American woman to have won Best Actress, so maybe some may have that on the back of their minds. On the negative side, Chadwick Boseman may end up soaking attention for her campaign, as some may feel as his last role, getting him the posthumous supporting Oscar is the biggest priority for their movie. Kirby didn't so much "beat out" McDormand -- it's like how last year Phoenix didn't win the Volpi Cup, but his film won the Golden Lion. McDormand doesn't lose any ground here just because she didn't win the Volpi, and Zhao was always going to be the real focal point of the film even over her. Kirby gains a lot of traction as a contender, especially now that Netflix bought her film (but they have a dozen or so potential contenders in their stable; how hilarious would it be if they bought up so much of the competition and still lost?!), but McDormand is still very much in it. And McDormand could easily be anointed as a three-time winner as Day-Lewis was in 2012. She's got the film, she's got the individual reviews (career-best, as many reviewers point out), she's got the studio, and while she's not at all a campaigner, she can afford to let her performance be the campaign. Davis is a strong competitor sight unseen, and probably will be Netflix's primary push unless things go sideways, but I think McDormand is always going to be a threat because she's got just about everything in her corner she needs. The only thing against her is she's a two-time winner already, but as we've seen recently, that's not that much of a hurdle if the performance is undeniable.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 12, 2020 22:15:50 GMT
As things look now, I feel like Best Actress will likely come down to a race between Vanessa Kirby and Viola Davis.Kirby just won Best Actress in Venice, beating another Best Actress contender in Frances McDormand. Kirby has two raved performances at festivals so far, so has a lot of momentum. She's also "hot" (as in looks) and young, and fits the often typical ingenue profile of winners in this category. And she'll easily get that British bloc support ( BAFTA is probably ready to msil her the award already). Kirby has a lot of things in her favor. Davis is Davis. It's meant to be a hell of a baity role, and there's no chance she doesn't hammer it for all it's worth. She's seen as someone with the stature to have two Oscars. It's still a blemish that Halle Berry is the only African-American woman to have won Best Actress, so maybe some may have that on the back of their minds. On the negative side, Chadwick Boseman may end up soaking attention for her campaign, as some may feel as his last role, getting him the posthumous supporting Oscar is the biggest priority for their movie. Kirby didn't so much "beat out" McDormand -- it's like how last year Phoenix didn't win the Volpi Cup, but his film won the Golden Lion. McDormand doesn't lose any ground here just because she didn't win the Volpi, and Zhao was always going to be the real focal point of the film even over her. Kirby gains a lot of traction as a contender, especially now that Netflix bought her film (but they have a dozen or so potential contenders in their stable; how hilarious would it be if they bought up so much of the competition and still lost?!), but McDormand is still very much in it. And McDormand could easily be anointed as a three-time winner as Day-Lewis was in 2012. She's got the film, she's got the individual reviews (career-best, as many reviewers point out), she's got the studio, and while she's not at all a campaigner, she can afford to let her performance be the campaign. Davis is a strong competitor sight unseen, and probably will be Netflix's primary push unless things go sideways, but I think McDormand is always going to be a threat because she's got just about everything in her corner she needs. The only thing against her is she's a two-time winner already, but as we've seen recently, that's not that much of a hurdle if the performance is undeniable. Nomadland isn't Joker. It's an arty, niche film that might have some awards season traction, but isn't going to be mass consumed by everyone. It's not going to become a cultural phenomenon that makes in excess of a billion dollars. Phoenix was pretty much guranteed to start winning everything once the televised awards started taking place. I can't see SAG going for something like Nomadland. And BAFTA will not likely favor her over Kirby. So we can already count out the easy sweep. McDormand is easily in the frame for a nomimation, but her path to an actual win seems a lot more difficult than you make it seem. McDormand did lose ground at Venice by not winning the Volpi Cup, because she doesn't have a billion dollar movie like Joaquin. And being a two-time winner (who just recently got her second) is a big hinderance for her, not a minor one. If competition were weak, maybe. But it clearly won't be. Don't see McDormand as anything more than a likely nominee.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 12, 2020 23:36:12 GMT
As things look now, I feel like Best Actress will likely come down to a race between Vanessa Kirby and Viola Davis.Kirby just won Best Actress in Venice, beating another Best Actress contender in Frances McDormand. Kirby has two raved performances at festivals so far, so has a lot of momentum. She's also "hot" (as in looks) and young, and fits the often typical ingenue profile of winners in this category. And she'll easily get that British bloc support ( BAFTA is probably ready to mail her the award already). Kirby has a lot of things in her favor. Davis is Davis. It's meant to be a hell of a baity role, and there's no chance she doesn't hammer it for all it's worth. She's seen as someone with the stature to have two Oscars. It's still a blemish that Halle Berry is the only African-American woman to have won Best Actress, so maybe some may have that on the back of their minds. On the negative side, Chadwick Boseman may end up soaking attention for her campaign, as some may feel as his last role, getting him the posthumous supporting Oscar is the biggest priority for their movie. I mentioned it in another thread, but I seriously doubt Kirby even gets nominated.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 12, 2020 23:56:09 GMT
As things look now, I feel like Best Actress will likely come down to a race between Vanessa Kirby and Viola Davis.Kirby just won Best Actress in Venice, beating another Best Actress contender in Frances McDormand. Kirby has two raved performances at festivals so far, so has a lot of momentum. She's also "hot" (as in looks) and young, and fits the often typical ingenue profile of winners in this category. And she'll easily get that British bloc support ( BAFTA is probably ready to mail her the award already). Kirby has a lot of things in her favor. Davis is Davis. It's meant to be a hell of a baity role, and there's no chance she doesn't hammer it for all it's worth. She's seen as someone with the stature to have two Oscars. It's still a blemish that Halle Berry is the only African-American woman to have won Best Actress, so maybe some may have that on the back of their minds. On the negative side, Chadwick Boseman may end up soaking attention for her campaign, as some may feel as his last role, getting him the posthumous supporting Oscar is the biggest priority for their movie. I mentioned it in another thread, but I seriously doubt Kirby even gets nominated. Nah....she's going to be the main British horse in the category. They put all their might behind someone every year, and they get them in and often get them contending for the win. It's like fucking clockwork. Kirby is young, pretty and was in The Crown (which Hollywood already loves) . If you think British contingent are not going to move heaven and earth to try and get her Oscar glory (especially with the Venice confirmation) with all she has going for her, you don't know the British contingent well enough. Winslet's film has come out, and there is no passion for her. Kirby is the biggest Brit hope in that category now and the Brits will put all their eggs in her basket. She'll more than likely win everything from London Critics Circle to BAFTA Best Actress awards.
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Post by franklin on Sept 13, 2020 0:10:10 GMT
1. Davis 2. McDormand 3. Kirby 4. Pfeiffer 5. Loren/Adams
Supp:
1. Close 2. Colman 3. Burstyn 4. Seyfried 5. Collins
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2020 3:38:28 GMT
Adams Davis Day/Hudson McDormand Pfeiffer
Close Colman DeBose Seyfried Zengel
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Post by futuretrunks on Sept 13, 2020 4:56:22 GMT
I mentioned it in another thread, but I seriously doubt Kirby even gets nominated. Nah....she's going to be the main British horse in the category. They put all their might behind someone every year, and they get them in and often get them contending for the win. It's like fucking clockwork. Kirby is young, pretty and was in The Crown (which Hollywood already loves) . If you think British contingent are not going to move heaven and earth to try and get her Oscar glory (especially with the Venice confirmation) with all she has going for her, you don't know the British contingent well enough. Winslet's film has come out, and there is no passion for her. Kirby is the biggest Brit hope in that category now and the Brits will put all their eggs in her basket. She'll more than likely win everything from London Critics Circle to BAFTA Best Actress awards. What? She's not a slam-dunk nomination, but she has outright raves.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 13, 2020 5:51:06 GMT
Nah....she's going to be the main British horse in the category. They put all their might behind someone every year, and they get them in and often get them contending for the win. It's like fucking clockwork. Kirby is young, pretty and was in The Crown (which Hollywood already loves) . If you think British contingent are not going to move heaven and earth to try and get her Oscar glory (especially with the Venice confirmation) with all she has going for her, you don't know the British contingent well enough. Winslet's film has come out, and there is no passion for her. Kirby is the biggest Brit hope in that category now and the Brits will put all their eggs in her basket. She'll more than likely win everything from London Critics Circle to BAFTA Best Actress awards. What? She's not a slam-dunk nomination, but she has outright raves. Alright, let's rephrase: no passion for her film, which she would really need for the type of film it is. A slow, dreary looking period lesbian film with mixed reviews? Ammonite isn't Carol or even Portrait Of A Lady On Fire. It needed unanimous raves or to be a BP contender to really give Winslet traction (and she's not Streep, who can easily get in with so-so recieved movies). No one is going to prioritise watching this movie and Winslet is not a potential winner. I do think the lack of passion for Winslet's movie will likely translate into a lack of passion for the performance in an elongated season. She's not completely dead, but there is now a much stronger British alternative to support in Kirby, who just won of one the the major festival acting awards, so has been given legitimacy as a potential Oscar winner. Brits will put all their chips in on her now.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 13, 2020 12:50:33 GMT
So yeah....the last year the Best Actress category did not feature a British Actress was in 2011.
That's a long stretch. Don't see how you can look at that stat and doubt Kirby.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2020 14:08:38 GMT
So yeah....the last year the Best Actress category did not feature a British Actress was in 2011.That's a long stretch. Don't see how you can look at that stat and doubt Kirby.Stats are meant to be broken, happens every year. The problem Kirby is going to have is the fact that she will be Netflix's 3rd priority in the category.
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 13, 2020 14:16:27 GMT
So yeah....the last year the Best Actress category did not feature a British Actress was in 2011.That's a long stretch. Don't see how you can look at that stat and doubt Kirby.Stats are meant to be broken, happens every year. The problem Kirby is going to have is the fact that she will be Netflix's 3rd priority in the category. Yeah....well until they actually get broken, we have to use those stats to try and help guide us. The currently unbroken British Actress stat in that category is as strong an indicator as anything, so I'm going to assume it's valid as a predictive guide....until it's not. I don't think the British bloc of voters will give a damn what "priority" Kirby is for Netflix. Their priority is to get one of their countrywomen nominated in Best Actress, which they have succeeded in doing for the last 9 Oscar seasons in a row.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 13, 2020 14:40:33 GMT
I know mhynson27 had her on his list but mostly we seem that people are sleeping on Hudson - maybe I'm missing it - like this is possibly a stacked POC category and I just think on paper, she rules......and not just because she sings, but because she sings and it's a joyous/triumphant role........in a year that seems depressing af subject matter.
In addition her songs tie into her dramatically far more than any music biopic does I reckon - at least related to race and image.
Not saying she's a lock - it could suck - but she sure checks off a lot of boxes and it doesn't matter that it would be her 2nd the way I see it.....
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 13, 2020 15:00:36 GMT
Stats are meant to be broken, happens every year. The problem Kirby is going to have is the fact that she will be Netflix's 3rd priority in the category. Yeah....well until they actually get broken, we have to use those stats to try and help guide us. The currently unbroken British Actress stat in that category is as strong an indicator as anything, so I'm going to assume it's valid as a predictive guide....until it's not. I don't think the British bloc of voters will give a damn what "priority" Kirby is for Netflix. Their priority is to get one of their countrywomen nominated in Best Actress, which they have succeeded in doing for the last 9 Oscar seasons in a row. You do know no one in the 2016 lineup is British right?
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Post by pupdurcs on Sept 13, 2020 15:23:21 GMT
Yeah....well until they actually get broken, we have to use those stats to try and help guide us. The currently unbroken British Actress stat in that category is as strong an indicator as anything, so I'm going to assume it's valid as a predictive guide....until it's not. I don't think the British bloc of voters will give a damn what "priority" Kirby is for Netflix. Their priority is to get one of their countrywomen nominated in Best Actress, which they have succeeded in doing for the last 9 Oscar seasons in a row. You do know no one in the 2016 lineup is British right? Ruth Negga is Irish, but the majority of her formative career was pretty much on UK television and stage. Many people in the industry simply assume she is British. I can guarantee you that even many British voters see her as British and don't even realise she's technically not a Brit, and she benefitted from British bloc voting as much as if she had a British passport. There's even Irish news articles that castigates the British media for repeatedly claiming Negga to be British: www.dailyedge.ie/ruth-negga-irish-not-british-3202855-Jan2017/So technically you are right, but Negga still essentially filled the "British actress" bloc vote spot. I feel as a predictive guide in th Best Actress category, the "British bloc" candidate is definitely a real and consistent thing every year. And this year, it looks like Kirby.
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 20, 2020 14:07:56 GMT
Don't know if her movie will actually come out this year, nor if it's going to be a contender, although I'd really love it. Fact is, Lady Loren is back and today is her birthday!! Happy 86, Madame!!
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 23, 2020 8:20:17 GMT
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 23, 2020 8:26:38 GMT
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Post by TerryMontana on Sept 23, 2020 11:27:52 GMT
Don't care really. I'm very excited for this project. But yes, I don't see Loren being one of their first priorities.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 27, 2020 22:01:08 GMT
Variety has put predictions up for all categories in the link below so here's Best Actress: variety.com/feature/2021-oscars-predictions-academy-awards-nominations-1234764774/Michelle Pfeiffer "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)
Vanessa Kirby "PIeces of a Woman" (Netflix)
Frances McDormand "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)
Viola Davis† "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" (Netflix)
Jennifer Hudson "Respect" (United Artists Releasing)
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Post by Mattsby on Sept 27, 2020 23:16:15 GMT
Pfeiffer win makes sense...... colorful character, a deserved career win. Maybe too light and "quirky" for the Academy? Hmm. I'm seeing it in two weeks! If Viola Davis and Hudson are her competition their Oscar wins may keep 'em back. Andra Day is one to watch.
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