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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 20, 2020 5:15:35 GMT
100% of BP winners are not foreign language films. I'm predicting 1917. Now if Bong can surprise at DGA, I would definitely switch to Parasite, but I think that 1917 is going to be too strong with PGA and DGA in a shortened season to lose. I know La La Land did, but the backlash had been building up for awhile and Trump had been elected that year. This year I just don’t think there’s just not enough time for significant backlash, and even if there was some kind of issue, voters didn’t care last year at all with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody. Plus, as far as real life playing a part in voting, I think that might actually favor 1917 more because there’s the whole scare going on. It’s died down for now, but it could easily flare up again while phase two voting is going on. I think this has been an underestimated factor in the Parastie vs. 1917 discourse: the latter really has practically no cons. The only ones that come to mind are the editing snub (but Birdman proved that doesn't necessarily mean anything for the "one-take" movie), the fact that there isn't much of a screenplay (but then it gets WGA and Oscar nods for screenplay), and its absence of acting nods, but that's not expected for a film with an unknown lead whose character doesn't have much in the way of development or dialogue and it hasn't held back tech juggernauts in the past or films with acting nominations and no wins. 1917 was released at the right time to be fresh on everyone's minds, it's killing it at the box office, it's going to resonate more with older voters than Parasite, it just won the PGA, and it has a combined total of 19 nominations between BAFTA and Oscars (to Parasite's 9) not to mention a BD and BP win at the Globes. There are no cons to 1917. Parasite is now confirmed to be in 2nd but IMO all it mainly accomplished was edging OUATIH out of the race. This is 1917's to lose.
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Jan 20, 2020 5:29:54 GMT
I think 1917 is the more likely winner, and I'm currently predicting it unless Bong wins DGA. But I don't think it's in the bag, and I think the preferential ballot might favor Parasite like it did Moonlight (at least I hope so).
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Post by quetee on Jan 20, 2020 5:31:22 GMT
Sticking with 1917.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 20, 2020 6:24:17 GMT
1917 feels very strong.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 20, 2020 12:19:48 GMT
I am sticking with 1917 too for now. The PGA and the DGA are much stronger indicators than the SAG ensemble, as statistics have shown.
The key for me is that most BP winners take home director, writing, or both. If Parasite is going to win, it has to beat out either Mendes for director or Tarantino for original screenplay.
With 1917, it's probable going to win Cinematography and maybe the sounds. I have no confidence its winning original screenplay, even though the script is pretty good and deceptively simple.
I will warn people here to avoid picking the film that wins the BAFTA. Its been a bad omen for a long time.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 20, 2020 12:28:11 GMT
Parasite is winning Original Screenplay and it has a very good chance at Editing too.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 20, 2020 12:39:52 GMT
I'll say the more conventional choice wins which is 1917 but of course a situation in which 1917 takes Director + a bunch of techs while Parasite takes Picture, Original Screenplay + International Film is very much possible! I'm very close to predicting this outcome but I'll wait a bit until fully committing to it. If Parasite somehow wins Best Picture at the BAFTAs it's gonna take the main Oscar as well.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 20, 2020 12:39:54 GMT
Of the 3 films in play: 1917, OUATIH, Parasite - 1917, the Chariots of Fire of 2019, looks likely to win so that's your answer, Parasite is the on merit winner and yet, I'd vote for OUATIH if I had a ballot, a film I didn't even give a pass to ~6.5/10. There's absolutely no reason to reward a British War film - especially one so lacking a POV on the actual war it's addressing - as good as it may be in other ways (and it wasn't THAT good anyway). Parasite is my number 3 of the year but I would vote for OUATIH - an original, unique, hit, starry, American film with vision and scope - even if the ending fell flat to me - every day over it - because, it's not the pacinoyes award (though I think we'd all like to see that ), sometimes you have to vote for the industry as a whole and the industry is the US film business - it should win in a bigger sense to me.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 20, 2020 13:12:06 GMT
I won't be surprised, but will be delighted if Parasite wins. Still, I think 1917 is taking it.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Jan 20, 2020 14:44:46 GMT
Parasite wins best picture, screenplay, and editing
1917 wins best director + techs
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 20, 2020 17:46:32 GMT
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seronie
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Post by seronie on Jan 23, 2020 14:28:34 GMT
1917 looks set to win on balance, though Parasite winning wouldn't surprise me (well, maybe a little). I'd prefer it too.
It is quite the lacking winner though. Not always well acted, completely without the virtuosity of Dunkirk, (the tracking shots are impressive, but it's been done before) and it felt a rather corny, shallow experience for me.
OUaTiH is my own preference, because I feel though overlong, it has great performances, some riveting scenes, kind of covers difficult material in a way that is celebratory and whimsical without being in bad taste (the ending mayhem notwithstanding).
Plus Tarantino kinda deserves it if you ask me. If actors can be overdue, this director is.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 23, 2020 16:44:01 GMT
I’m not a big stat guy on general but I think usually PGA > SAG in terms of reliability when it comes to BP so I’ll go with 1917 right now. Probably won’t change for me unless Bong wins DGA. But who knows...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 6:19:10 GMT
I'd definitely like Parasite to win between the two, but I think it's going to 1917. The Academy's goofy.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 24, 2020 10:06:22 GMT
I wish it's Parasite but I think it will be 1917 which would be alright.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 24, 2020 13:40:42 GMT
I’m not a big stat guy on general but I think usually PGA > SAG in terms of reliability when it comes to BP so I’ll go with 1917 right now. Probably won’t change for me unless Bong wins DGA. But who knows... What if Parasite wins Bafta? Big Short all over again The Big Short didn’t win DGA (which I expect 1917 to) so I don’t see them comparable. Also the Revenant won BAFTA that year so again that comparison doesn’t work. The BAFTA hasn’t matched Oscar since 12 Years a Slave anyways so it might not mean much.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 24, 2020 14:16:53 GMT
The Big Short didn’t win DGA (which I expect 1917 to) so I don’t see them comparable. Also the Revenant won BAFTA that year so again that comparison doesn’t work. The BAFTA hasn’t matched Oscar since 12 Years a Slave anyways so it might not mean much. Brokeback didn't win BP despite won DGA and PGA. Crash managed to win with only SAG on the bag, I hope Parasite will follow its path... Well anything can happen. Brokeback and La La Land proved that. They are a bit rare though.
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Post by morton on Jan 24, 2020 21:03:20 GMT
Brokeback didn't win BP despite won DGA and PGA. Crash managed to win with only SAG on the bag, I hope Parasite will follow its path... Well anything can happen. Brokeback and La La Land proved that. They are a bit rare though. Yeah, I think that with Brokeback Mountain unfortunately there were a lot of older voters that were uncomfortable with the subject matter, and Crash with its SAG win, Roger Ebert backing and taking place in LA, was right there that those voters could say, "see we're not bad, we just prefer the film that's about how racism is bad". With La La Land, I don't think there was any one thing like there was with Brokeback Mountain, but unfortunately it was just a series of things that were able to take it down. One of the big things was that it was such a huge frontrunner, and it wasn't a shortened season like it is now, so there was a lot of time for backlash to build up. Winning all those Globes, and then tying with Titanic and All About Eve for number of Oscar nominations, turned out to be a bad thing in the end because it put too much of a target on its back. With preferential voting, I would have thought it still would have won, and maybe it would have if it had been the underdog going into the Oscars, but I think being such a huge target made a lot of people rank it lower. Then there was the backlash over being too white, and Trump had just been elected, and that definitely weighed heavily on a lot of voter's minds because so many of the acceptance speeches were in response to him winning, and Moonlight had the "importance" factor while also having the critics' backing. I think that there's just not enough time for some kind of backlash to sink 1917 since they're only about two weeks away, and I'm not sure what the backlash could be. Like maybe people could say that it's too white or that it only has one female character, but unfortunately too white could basically apply to most of the other nominees same with not having enough female characters.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2020 0:20:06 GMT
Brokeback didn't win BP despite won DGA and PGA. Crash managed to win with only SAG on the bag, I hope Parasite will follow its path... Well anything can happen. Brokeback and La La Land proved that. They are a bit rare though. Anything CAN happen, but I really don't think those were that much of a shocker.
Brokeback didn't have an editing nomination. The majority of BP winners were nominated for directing, editing and writing. In 2005, the Guilds had BBM winning PGA, DGA and WGA. Crash won the SAG and WGA. It was pretty close race.
LLL won the PGA and DGA. Moonlight won the WGA over LLL. The big difference between the two was that Moonlight was nominated at the PGA, DGA and SAGE.
Bottom line is: You win the PGA, DGA, SAG or WGA, you have a shot at winning.
You can point to 2018 as an exception, but........the winner only films which won a Guild was Roma, Green Book and Black Panther. Roma was missing the editing nomination AND the SAGE nod. Green Book had no director and SAGE. Black Panther had no DGA and wasn't up for directing, writing and editing.
In 2014, Birdman had no editing nomination for obvious reasons, but it won the PGA, DGA, SAGE and probably would have won the WGA, if it was eligible.
In 2012, Argo didn't get a directing nomination, but the film won all the major Guilds.
For this year, the main contenders this year (so far) are 1917 vs. Parasite.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 25, 2020 0:26:43 GMT
Well anything can happen. Brokeback and La La Land proved that. They are a bit rare though. Anything CAN happen, but I really don't think those were that much of a shocker.
Brokeback didn't have an editing nomination. The majority of BP winners were nominated for directing, editing and writing. In 2005, the Guilds had BBM winning PGA, DGA and WGA. Crash won the SAG and WGA. It was pretty close race.
LLL won the PGA and DGA. Moonlight won the WGA over LLL. The big difference between the two was that Moonlight was nominated at the PGA, DGA and SAGE.
Bottom line is: You win the PGA, DGA, SAG or WGA, you have a shot at winning.
You can point to 2018 as an exception, but........the winner only films which won a Guild was Roma, Green Book and Black Panther. Roma was missing the editing nomination AND the SAGE nod. Green Book had no director and SAGE. Black Panther had no DGA and wasn't up for directing, writing and editing.
In 2014, Birdman had no editing nomination for obvious reasons, but it won the PGA, DGA, SAGE and probably would have won the WGA, if it was eligible.
In 2012, Argo didn't get a directing nomination, but the film won all the major Guilds.
For this year, the main contenders this year (so far) are 1917 vs. Parasite.
I mean you can hindsight it all you want but I was following the season and watching the ceremony and La La land losing was a shocker. People were very bored with what they thought was a forgone conclusion. Also I don’t take WGA very seriously since it isn’t actually a BP prize and so many films are ineligible each year.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2020 0:35:44 GMT
Anything CAN happen, but I really don't think those were that much of a shocker.
Brokeback didn't have an editing nomination. The majority of BP winners were nominated for directing, editing and writing. In 2005, the Guilds had BBM winning PGA, DGA and WGA. Crash won the SAG and WGA. It was pretty close race.
LLL won the PGA and DGA. Moonlight won the WGA over LLL. The big difference between the two was that Moonlight was nominated at the PGA, DGA and SAGE.
Bottom line is: You win the PGA, DGA, SAG or WGA, you have a shot at winning.
You can point to 2018 as an exception, but........the winner only films which won a Guild was Roma, Green Book and Black Panther. Roma was missing the editing nomination AND the SAGE nod. Green Book had no director and SAGE. Black Panther had no DGA and wasn't up for directing, writing and editing.
In 2014, Birdman had no editing nomination for obvious reasons, but it won the PGA, DGA, SAGE and probably would have won the WGA, if it was eligible.
In 2012, Argo didn't get a directing nomination, but the film won all the major Guilds.
For this year, the main contenders this year (so far) are 1917 vs. Parasite.
I mean you can hindsight it all you want but I was following the season and watching the ceremony and La La land losing was a shocker. People were very bored with what they thought was a forgone conclusion. Also I don’t take WGA very seriously since it isn’t actually a BP prize and so many films are ineligible each year. It depends on what you mean by "shocker". Nobody should be shocked if a Golden Globe/Critics Choice winner wins Best Picture. Nobody. Especially if they are favored to win director or screenplay.
A shocker was Brody winning Best Actor or Precious winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Upset is different than shocker in my book. If Hollywood, 1917 or Parasite wins Best Picture, it wouldn't be a shocker.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 25, 2020 0:48:22 GMT
I mean you can hindsight it all you want but I was following the season and watching the ceremony and La La land losing was a shocker. People were very bored with what they thought was a forgone conclusion. Also I don’t take WGA very seriously since it isn’t actually a BP prize and so many films are ineligible each year. It depends on what you mean by "shocker". Nobody should be shocked if a Golden Globe/Critics Choice winner wins Best Picture. Nobody. Especially if they are favored to win director or screenplay.
A shocker was Brody winning Best Actor or Precious winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Upset is different than shocker in my book. If Hollywood, 1917 or Parasite wins Best Picture, it wouldn't be a shocker. Once again that is easy to say after the fact. Aren’t you the statistics guy? No way you can convince me you would have been calling La La Land a lock. Also Jenkins was never a contender for Director. BFCA are irrelevant. Of course Parasite can win. It won SAG. Moonlight didn’t even have that.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2020 2:10:53 GMT
It depends on what you mean by "shocker". Nobody should be shocked if a Golden Globe/Critics Choice winner wins Best Picture. Nobody. Especially if they are favored to win director or screenplay.
A shocker was Brody winning Best Actor or Precious winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Upset is different than shocker in my book. If Hollywood, 1917 or Parasite wins Best Picture, it wouldn't be a shocker. Once again that is easy to say after the fact. Aren’t you the statistics guy? No way you can convince me you would have been calling La La Land a lock. Also Jenkins was never a contender for Director. BFCA are irrelevant. Of course Parasite can win. It won SAG. Moonlight didn’t even have that. What is the difference between a "shock" and an "upset" in your mind? That's my only point here. La La Land was favored to win Best Picture, because it won the PGA and DGA, but Moonlight winning instead was more of an upset rather than a shock.
I never called LLL a lock. At the time, I pointed out that the SAG ensemble miss was a problem for the picture, much like I said, Roma missing the editing nomination as a problem too.
This is not an "after the fact" point. I've pointed out for years about the PGA-DGA-SAG relevancy and the directing-editing-writing relevancy.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 25, 2020 4:18:54 GMT
Once again that is easy to say after the fact. Aren’t you the statistics guy? No way you can convince me you would have been calling La La Land a lock. Also Jenkins was never a contender for Director. BFCA are irrelevant. Of course Parasite can win. It won SAG. Moonlight didn’t even have that. What is the difference between a "shock" and an "upset" in your mind? That's my only point here. La La Land was favored to win Best Picture, because it won the PGA and DGA, but Moonlight winning instead was more of an upset rather than a shock.
I never called LLL a lock. At the time, I pointed out that the SAG ensemble miss was a problem for the picture, much like I said, Roma missing the editing nomination as a problem too.
This is not an "after the fact" point. I've pointed out for years about the PGA-DGA-SAG relevancy and the directing-editing-writing relevancy.
A shock is a strong surprise... it was very surprising.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2020 5:44:02 GMT
Right now I cannot really say anything before DGA. If one of 1917 and Parasite win DGA I'll predict that. But if somehow neither do, I'll go with 1917.
The passion is there in almost all circles for Parasite, nomination morning that was quite evident outside of acting shutout but the ensemble win just confirms that to be kind of a fluke (the Roma comparisons were there to say that this is weaker, but it has been seen that especially in the acting categories, Latinos have had an easier time getting in when compared to Asians. Seriously, name 5 Asian nominees in the big 8 categories sans Parasite this decade. Ang Lee, Dev Patel (kinda) .... see? Sad to say, but position of Roma ladies and Parasite cast isn't same. Had Parasite been set in say, France then the Roma comparisons would be apt.) Trust me, the ensemble win is very big for Parasite, more of a big deal for it than it has been for some of the previous winners at least. It definitely is in a better position than Roma, it has no faults that Roma had, sans language barrier.
On the other hand, 1917 basically has no barrier for it to cross. Others have put it more eloquently than me here. Parasite did win SAG, but the fault with that is that SAG has no foreign film category, but the Oscars do, which is where 1917 comes in victorious. Also, I want Parasite to win, so in case it doesn't, I don't want to be hurt (NS 1917).
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