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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2017 23:42:34 GMT
When Dunkirk and Bigelow skip Cannes, would you still predict either to win BP if you already were and why
Wonderstruck seems guaranteed a spot, while Downsizing is possible but a fall fest circuit seems more likely
Telluride and TIFF is becoming a necessity if you want to win BP, just ask Spotlight, Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave, Argo
The last BP winner to not play at Telluride was The Artist, which launched at Cannes and then did TIFF
The last BP winner to win without a festival debut was The Departed, which had an Oct release
The 2006 race was splintered as:
Little Miss Sunshine won PGA + SAG ensemble + WGA Original
Babel won Drama Globe
The Queen won BAFTA
The Departed won DGA + Globe Director + WGA Adapted + NYFCC Director + NSFC Supporting Actor
Letters From Iwo Jima won LAFCA Best Picture
Dreamgirls won Comedy Globe
United 93 won NYFCC Best Picture + LAFCA Director + NSFC Director + BAFTA Director
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 17, 2017 1:50:17 GMT
Dunkirk was never going to win BP, Cannes or not.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 2:17:52 GMT
Dunkirk was never going to win BP, Cannes or not. I agree with this, though I always had it pegged as a nominee |
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 17, 2017 3:12:34 GMT
Was anyone expecting Dunkirk or Bigelow's movie to play at Cannes? And when they indeed skip this one, why would this impact its awards chances? If anything, Cannes is becoming less and less of a sign of awards buzz, and Venice is becoming more and more important.
Anyways, it's march. Nothing has a guaranteed spot.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Mar 17, 2017 3:16:40 GMT
I never expected either one to play at Cannes. This thread did get to me to wonder, though, about what the French film press think of Christopher Nolan since I have no idea.
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Post by dmitriyuriev on Mar 17, 2017 3:43:00 GMT
Considering Bigelow and Nolan are high profile directors, they really don't need buzz this early especially if their films turn out to be raved, it's never good to be the front runner this early.
with that being said, I have no faith in Nolan's film after that PG-13 rating, it will be a watered down war film.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 4:19:18 GMT
Was anyone expecting Dunkirk or Bigelow's movie to play at Cannes? And when they indeed skip this one, why would this impact its awards chances? If anything, Cannes is becoming less and less of a sign of awards buzz, and Venice is becoming more and more important. Anyways, it's march. Nothing has a guaranteed spot. Yes, both were considered huge possibilities-- Dunkirk is still possible though unlikely-- Cannes gets announced in only a few weeks And Venice is irrelevant in this situation considering these movies open up before the festival |
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Post by Lubezki on Mar 17, 2017 5:27:36 GMT
I still have huge expectations for both projects.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Mar 17, 2017 5:31:14 GMT
Considering how much footage Bigelow shoots, I'd assume it's a very long editing process.
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 17, 2017 15:15:48 GMT
Was anyone expecting Dunkirk or Bigelow's movie to play at Cannes? And when they indeed skip this one, why would this impact its awards chances? If anything, Cannes is becoming less and less of a sign of awards buzz, and Venice is becoming more and more important. Anyways, it's march. Nothing has a guaranteed spot. Yes, both were considered huge possibilities-- Dunkirk is still possible though unlikely-- Cannes gets announced in only a few weeks And Venice is irrelevant in this situation considering these movies open up before the festival Oh, I wasn't saying they could go to Venice - I was talking about how Venice is overall a better thermometer to the Oscar. Anyways, has Nolan ever done a festival like this? To me it seems hugely unlikely. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 17, 2017 15:44:59 GMT
Anyways, has Nolan ever done a festival like this? To me it seems hugely unlikely. Memento went to Venice. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 15:53:49 GMT
both kinda benefit from no-entry at cannes. it's track record at Oscars hasn't been even close to good. The Artist was the only BP winner this century to have a cannes film fest debut, besides No Country For Old Men and The Pianist (lemme live the dream).
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 17, 2017 18:09:43 GMT
I wouldn't write off Dunkirk for Cannes quite yet, I still see it as a possibility in some predictions. The Deadline article just says that supposedly no decisions have been made yet. Regarding it not being ready in time, it just got a MPAA rating so there's at least a cut in place, though vfx and score may not necessarily be 100% finished (Zimmer has apparently been working on the score since January). Considering the film is set in France, filmed in France, and the French media have been all over the production, I would think there'd be some pressure from some to premiere it there.
I'm coming around on the possibility of Downsizing being a potential winner if it's acclaimed. If something as idiosyncratic as Birdman can win, this certainly can too. Still not completely sold on Wonderstruck though... Driving Miss Daisy was the last time a PG-rated film won BP.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 19:53:24 GMT
I wouldn't write off Dunkirk for Cannes quite yet, I still see it as a possibility in some predictions. The Deadline article just says that supposedly no decisions have been made yet. Regarding it not being ready in time, it just got a MPAA rating so there's at least a cut in place, though vfx and score may not necessarily be 100% finished (Zimmer has apparently been working on the score since January). Considering the film is set in France, filmed in France, and the French media have been all over the production, I would think there'd be some pressure from some to premiere it there. I'm coming around on the possibility of Downsizing being a potential winner if it's acclaimed. If something as idiosyncratic as Birdman can win, this certainly can too. Still not completely sold on Wonderstruck though... Driving Miss Daisy was the last time a PG-rated film won BP. Hugo was PG and easily a top 3 film Hidden Figures was PG and made over $150m and won SAG ensemble with such a late release Rating is irrelevant if the film takes off-- plus its a crowdpleasing film about children and artists, no reason for it to force anything higher than PG-13 |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 19:55:50 GMT
Yes, both were considered huge possibilities-- Dunkirk is still possible though unlikely-- Cannes gets announced in only a few weeks And Venice is irrelevant in this situation considering these movies open up before the festival Oh, I wasn't saying they could go to Venice - I was talking about how Venice is overall a better thermometer to the Oscar. Anyways, has Nolan ever done a festival like this? To me it seems hugely unlikely. Well, obviously thats true but Cannes is the only logistical festival they can do Sure, Nolan and Bigelow have strong enough reputations but a festival launch for these films to prove their worth can only help |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 20:00:21 GMT
both kinda benefit from no-entry at cannes. it's track record at Oscars hasn't been even close to good. The Artist was the only BP winner this century to have a cannes film fest debut, besides No Country For Old Men and The Pianist (lemme live the dream). Id say it wouldnt matter if they could do fall festivals, but alas |
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Post by stephen on Mar 17, 2017 20:51:01 GMT
I think Dunkirk is a special case because it's getting released well before TIFF and Telluride, and while films generally require the festival circuit to gain momentum, Dunkirk doesn't really need to. It's a summer blockbuster, which hasn't won Best Picture since Forrest Gump (Braveheart and Gladiator were both May releases, and The Hurt Locker wasn't a blockbuster by any real metric). Few prestige films get released in the summertime because of the typified generality that "the later a release, the better your shot." If Dunkirk does well at the B.O. and the critics, I could certainly see it staying in the conversation, and it wouldn't surprise me if it was the sort of film that got re-released throughout the year.
I could definitely see there being more footage screenings at Cannes, like what Weinstein did with Django.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 21:16:49 GMT
Dunkirk is a bit of an exception because it is almost certainly getting a BP nom unless it's a complete failure, but WB needs to establish and position the film if they want it to be a serious contender
Hell, they even pushed Sully at Telluride a few days before release
They'll take Blade Runner to Venice, Telluride, TIFF where it could breakout and emerge as their top priority for this awards season
Times have changed since the days of Gladiator when its now imperative for a film to breakout at a festival if it wants to win BP
If La La Land stuck with its original summer release, its extremely unlikely it would have became the awards contender that it did
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Post by stephen on Mar 17, 2017 21:41:25 GMT
Dunkirk is a bit of an exception because it is almost certainly getting a BP nom unless it's a complete failure, but WB needs to establish and position the film if they want it to be a serious contender Hell, they even pushed Sully at Telluride a few days before release They'll take Blade Runner to Venice, Telluride, TIFF where it could breakout and emerge as their top priority for this awards season Times have changed since the days of Gladiator when its now imperative for a film to breakout at a festival if it wants to win BP If La La Land stuck with its original summer release, its extremely unlikely it would have became the awards contender that it did I'd say that Warner Bros. can likely afford to be choosy with their stable this year, as you say. I do expect both films to be the big tech players of the year and, provided the films live up to the hype, Director contenders. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 21:49:03 GMT
Dunkirk is a bit of an exception because it is almost certainly getting a BP nom unless it's a complete failure, but WB needs to establish and position the film if they want it to be a serious contender Hell, they even pushed Sully at Telluride a few days before release They'll take Blade Runner to Venice, Telluride, TIFF where it could breakout and emerge as their top priority for this awards season Times have changed since the days of Gladiator when its now imperative for a film to breakout at a festival if it wants to win BP If La La Land stuck with its original summer release, its extremely unlikely it would have became the awards contender that it did I'd say that Warner Bros. can likely afford to be choosy with their stable this year, as you say. I do expect both films to be the big tech players of the year and, provided the films live up to the hype, Director contenders. There's also Wonderstruck which should be a lock for Cinematography and Costume noms unless it's a huge flop Right now, I think both Bigelow and Nolan happen for BP and Director, but neither win anything major in the top 8 Dunkirk takes a few techs like sound and production Blade Runner ultimately misses BP and Director, but is still showy enough to take a few techs-- possibly cinematography and VFX |
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Post by stephen on Mar 17, 2017 21:56:35 GMT
I'd say that Warner Bros. can likely afford to be choosy with their stable this year, as you say. I do expect both films to be the big tech players of the year and, provided the films live up to the hype, Director contenders. There's also Wonderstruck which should be a lock for Cinematography and Costume noms unless it's a huge flop Right now, I think both Bigelow and Nolan happen for BP and Director, but neither win anything major in the top 8 Dunkirk takes a few techs like sound and production Blade Runner ultimately misses BP and Director, but is still showy enough to take a few techs-- possibly cinematography and VFX I think 2049 could go the way of Arrival, and Villeneuve can get that sweet afterglow love. And I can see a narrative building for Deakins, and I'd have to think it would stand a good shot of taking Production Design and Visual Effects. I wouldn't bet against a big war picture for Editing or the sound prizes, and lately Best Director has been favoring the films that excel in the tech arenas. Bigelow is definitely a possibility, but her film is such a cipher at this point and I wonder if there mightn't be backlash at her cast being predominantly (at this juncture) white. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 22:51:36 GMT
There's also Wonderstruck which should be a lock for Cinematography and Costume noms unless it's a huge flop Right now, I think both Bigelow and Nolan happen for BP and Director, but neither win anything major in the top 8 Dunkirk takes a few techs like sound and production Blade Runner ultimately misses BP and Director, but is still showy enough to take a few techs-- possibly cinematography and VFX I think 2049 could go the way of Arrival, and Villeneuve can get that sweet afterglow love. And I can see a narrative building for Deakins, and I'd have to think it would stand a good shot of taking Production Design and Visual Effects. I wouldn't bet against a big war picture for Editing or the sound prizes, and lately Best Director has been favoring the films that excel in the tech arenas. Bigelow is definitely a possibility, but her film is such a cipher at this point and I wonder if there mightn't be backlash at her cast being predominantly (at this juncture) white. Yes, I think the Bigelow could become politically polarizing, but for moment I'm thinking: 1) Haynes, Wonderstruck- crowdpleaser, fest breakout, children performances, visually ambitious, film about artists 2) Payne, Downsizing- Academy favorite, most ambitious film, social satire, high-concept, technically ambitious 3) Nolan, Dunkirk- Oscar bait, war film, tech contender 4) Bigelow, Detroit- previous winner, "important" subject matter 5) Wright, Darkest Hour- period Oscar bait, acting contender alt: 6) Spielberg, The Post- he's Spielberg but small story, missed major traction for Bridge of Spies 7) Villeneuve, Blade Runner- after glow nom, tech contender 8) Gilroy, Inner City- if 2017, acting and writing contender, thriller in vein of Michael Clayton + The Verdict 9) Haigh, Lean on Pete- potentially A24's #1, critical breakout, child performance 10) Guadagino, Call Me By My Name- SPC's #1, could be a critic favorite Possibilities for Greatest Showman, PTA, Rees, Aronofsky The last cinematography winner to win without a directing nom was Inception in 2010, and that could be good precedent for Blade Runner Cinematography: Blade Runner (alt: Wonderstruck) Editing: Dunkirk (Detroit) Costume: Wonderstruck (Darkest Hour) Production: Dunkirk (Blade Runner) Score: Wonderstruck (Dunkirk or Blade Runner) VFX: Blade Runner (Downsizing, maybe, Star Wars) Sound Editing: Dunkirk (Blade Runner) Sound Mixing: Dunkirk (Greatest Showman) |
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 18, 2017 4:27:52 GMT
Anyways, has Nolan ever done a festival like this? To me it seems hugely unlikely. Memento went to Venice. Well, I expected that. C'mon, guys, Dunkirk is not going to any festivals. Just face it. |
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 18, 2017 4:31:40 GMT
Oh, I wasn't saying they could go to Venice - I was talking about how Venice is overall a better thermometer to the Oscar. Anyways, has Nolan ever done a festival like this? To me it seems hugely unlikely. Well, obviously thats true but Cannes is the only logistical festival they can do Sure, Nolan and Bigelow have strong enough reputations but a festival launch for these films to prove their worth can only help Bigelow I can see going to Cannes, but not Nolan. None of his big studio movies went to festivals, and I can't see why the studio would feel like they need to do that now that he's arguably on his popularity prime. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2017 4:41:49 GMT
Well, obviously thats true but Cannes is the only logistical festival they can do Sure, Nolan and Bigelow have strong enough reputations but a festival launch for these films to prove their worth can only help Bigelow I can see going to Cannes, but not Nolan. None of his big studio movies went to festivals, and I can't see why the studio would feel like they need to do that now that he's arguably on his popularity prime. None of his big films have been touted as massive Oscar players like this before WB even took Mad Max to Cannes Interstellar was wanted by Telluride and NYFF, but he turned them down for obvious reasons because of the quality of the film |
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