vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Mar 14, 2017 17:24:06 GMT
What are some Best Picture winners that would have probaby not won any other year?
First thing in my mind is The Artist. Closest competitor was The Descendants and maybe Hugo. I loved the film personally, but it felt like that underdog that a more baity movie would take over.
Closest to that was The Help but that had no traction for the best of the year.
In 2010 it may have been a distant third behind Kings Speech/Social Network. And 2012 it may have not even been nominated.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Mar 14, 2017 17:45:26 GMT
Spotlight wouldn't have won over any BP champion since like 2005, I think.
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Post by stephen on Mar 14, 2017 17:51:33 GMT
I think Moonlight wouldn't have won in any other year. Quality aside, it needed the magnification allotted by the bad press AMPAS had gotten from #OscarsSoWhite as well as the backlash La La Land was already enduring to clear that final hurdle.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Mar 14, 2017 18:03:39 GMT
Besides the mentioned examples, there's Crash, that never would have won without the Brokeback Mountain homophobic backlash.
Slumdog Millionaire probably wouldn't have won in any other year either- it caught the wave of the Obama/Hope/Change feeling in Hollywood in particular and the US in general.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 14, 2017 19:56:08 GMT
I don't think Birdman would have won in any other year. I think it benefited from Boyhood being a weak frontrunner that was made outside of the system with a young unknown actor at the center and the only two major stars being Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette, who was mostly just known as a television actress by that time.
Selma came out too late and had screener issues. Grand Budapest Hotel was luckily distributed by the same company as Birdman, and Birdman was the first priority over it. The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything were probably too similar too each other, and both were the kind of Oscar bait that use to win Best Picture but has fallen out of favor at least as far as winning. I guess Whiplash was too small, Teller too young, and Chazelle too much of a newcomer and too young. American Sniper probably came out too late as well, and maybe was considered too red state.
So it all fell into place with Birdman. It had a large cast. It had great techs. All kinds of people (actors, directors, producers) in the industry could relate to it.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 15, 2017 5:04:21 GMT
The problem with shockers like Crash or Moonlight is that no one would have said they'd win in the years they actually did win, so naturally people assume they wouldn't win any other year either, but may be wrong just like they were with the initial prediction.
Argo wouldn't have won in any recent year I can remember. That was a weird, wide open year.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 15, 2017 5:05:53 GMT
Spotlight wouldn't have won over any BP champion since like 2005, I think. I could see Spotlight winning in 2012, 2014, last year and 2005
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Post by taranofprydain on Mar 15, 2017 5:13:43 GMT
Crash, Moonlight, Birdman
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Mar 15, 2017 12:16:29 GMT
Spotlight wouldn't have won over any BP champion since like 2005, I think. I could see Spotlight winning in 2012, 2014, last year and 2005 I don't, honestly. Argo was unstoppable, and Affleck missing Director just sealed the deal. Much like Birdman, it was also about the film industry, and we know how much the Academy loves to pat themselves on the back. Speaking of Birdman: in spite of how out-there it seems to some, there was plenty of genuine passion for AGI's film in the industry, far more than there was for Spotlight, as proven by its performance with the guilds. It being Hollywood-themed and technically showy means it'd probably have the edge. I definitely don't think it'd win last year. It was a tight race to the finish line, and there's no way Spotlight would've beat a total crowdpleaser that (again) was about Hollywood as well as a technical marvel, and an incredibly timely critical darling that did well enough on a preferential ballot to swoop in and be the biggest upset in recent memory. 2005 I agree with, if only because it'd be a more respectable and widely acclaimed alternative the Academy could default to to avoid Brokeback. The thing with Spotlight is that it was up against contenders that were all far weaker than most year's frontrunners. Mad Max swept the techs, but was never happenig in the main categories; The Big Short was an offbeat Adam McKay comedy, as well as his first foray into the awards season; and as for The Revenant, though I think it would've won under the old system, it was hurt by the preferential ballot because it turned a lot of voters off in a way that Spotlight didn't. The latter took it by default, but I honestly don't believe there was THAT much passion for it compared to other frontrunners. There was no narrative and no hype, and it's easily the least buzzed about winner of the decade. Even The Artist seemed to have more excitement around it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2017 13:14:50 GMT
The Kings Speech wouldn't have won in any other year other than maaayyyyybeeee 2015.
And for those who mention Moonlight, I could say with confidence that it could have won in 2008 and 2011 with eeeeaaaaassssseeee, with Slumdog and The Artist getting the LLL treatment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2017 13:18:34 GMT
I didn't mention Spotlight since it would've felt too easy.
The Hurt Locker and Birdman wouldn't have won as easily as they did in other years (they would have won, just not that easily)
If The Beautiful Mind counts as modern, then it def wouldn't have won. In its decade at least
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no
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Post by no on Mar 16, 2017 4:17:57 GMT
C R A S H
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Post by cornnetto on Mar 16, 2017 4:44:45 GMT
The more title get named, the stranger the thread will become.
List of movie named:
The Artist Spotlight Moonlight Crash Slumdog Millionaire Birdman The Kings Speech Hurt Locker Beautiful Mind
So since 2005, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 were winner that would have probably not won any other year ? That the vast majority, would The Kings Speech really have not much of a shot against the Hurt Locker, Spotlight, Million Dollar Baby and some others....
Slumdog millionaire could have probably not won a couple of year after, is level of youth energy and small digital camera being part of is success, but it could have won before (the same movie released even before that year would have probably been seen as more impressive).
Now that Moonlight achieved to beat a movie like La la land (about Hollywood, giant world box office success, it girl/director, director winner, coming of Whiplash, etc...) it is a bit hard to say, that the movie X could not have beating any others bp winner.
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 17, 2017 3:16:28 GMT
Despite what everyone is saying, I think Birdman is the one that could win in almost any given year. La La Land is one that lost, but I could see winning in other years.
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Post by dmitriyuriev on Mar 17, 2017 3:49:03 GMT
I think Moonlight wouldn't have won in any other year. Quality aside, it needed the magnification allotted by the bad press AMPAS had gotten from #OscarsSoWhite as well as the backlash La La Land was already enduring to clear that final hurdle. Don't forget Trump winning the election, perfect film for Hollywood to give the finger to the new government.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 17, 2017 5:15:15 GMT
Despite what everyone is saying, I think Birdman is the one that could win in almost any given year. La La Land is one that lost, but I could see winning in other years. The thing is I would have thought that La La Land would have won in any other year post 07, but then it didn't even win this year. So who knows.
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Post by bob-coppola on Mar 17, 2017 15:13:32 GMT
Despite what everyone is saying, I think Birdman is the one that could win in almost any given year. La La Land is one that lost, but I could see winning in other years. The thing is I would have thought that La La Land would have won in any other year post 07, but then it didn't even win this year. So who knows. I believe it lost this year for political reasons (Moonlight is very good, but let's be honest). LLL could lose to 12YAS even though it wasn't that strong of a frontrunner, but it'd easily win over Spotlight, Argo, The Artist and and TKS. I don't who'd win between this one and Birdman, tho.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 17, 2017 23:15:54 GMT
The thing is I would have thought that La La Land would have won in any other year post 07, but then it didn't even win this year. So who knows. I believe it lost this year for political reasons (Moonlight is very good, but let's be honest). LLL could lose to 12YAS even though it wasn't that strong of a frontrunner, but it'd easily win over Spotlight, Argo, The Artist and and TKS. I don't who'd win between this one and Birdman, tho. Forgot about 12 Years a Slave when I posted that. Probably would have won director but not BP that year.
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