Post by fotodude on Mar 13, 2017 19:27:02 GMT
I made this thread yesterday but for some reason it's gone. Posting it again since people are still replying to the poll thread:
Still a long time to go as a new year is just starting, so participation will probably be less enthusiastic and more unstable these first few months. At the same time though, given the wide range of possibilities, anything can happen and these are also the best months to call stuff nobody else does (looking at you, lone voters). In any case, things will undoubtedly change, and already have just these past few days, with Spielberg's The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara being delayed and The Post suddenly taking its place to be released during the upcoming awards season. Voters weren't really (i.e. not at all) shaken by this, seeing as a majority is leaning towards two earlier release dates: Dunkirk and Untitled Detroit Project. Both seem ambitious and baity enough, but they also have two main things going against them: genre bias in Nolan's case and having won before in Bigelow's. Having said that, all recent BP winners have come out before December and have premiered in a fall festival, so that could also go against some films which are next in line for now, especially PTA's working title Phantom Thread, Payne's Downsizing or Haynes' Wonderstruck. November release Darkest Hour seems like a safer bet, even though most eyes are on Oldman's performance. All in all, the Academy has also moved past more conventional films and towards independent underdogs, which could favor Sundance hit Call Me By Your Name... unless the overdue factor tips the balance this year, which could affect a good number of these presumed frontrunners. Adding MAredux' and OB's votes, this is what we have so far. Feel free to guess how many will actually be BP nominated.
1. Dunkirk - 14 votes (19%)
2. Untitled Detroit Project - 11 votes (15%)
3. Phantom Thread - 10 votes (14%)
4. Call Me By Your Name - 6 votes (8%)
4. Downsizing - 6 votes (8%)
4. Wonderstruck - 6 votes (8%)
7. Darkest Hour - 5 votes (7%)
8. Mudbound - 4 votes (6%)
9. The Greatest Showman - 2 votes (3%)
9. Molly's Game - 2 votes (3%)
11. The Beguiled - 1 vote (1%)
11. The Big Sick - 1 vote (1%)
11. Inner City - 1 vote (1%)
11. The Lost City of Z - 1 vote (1%)
11. Mother! - 1 vote (1%)
11. Suburbicon - 1 vote (1%)
Total: 72 votes
Still a long time to go as a new year is just starting, so participation will probably be less enthusiastic and more unstable these first few months. At the same time though, given the wide range of possibilities, anything can happen and these are also the best months to call stuff nobody else does (looking at you, lone voters). In any case, things will undoubtedly change, and already have just these past few days, with Spielberg's The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara being delayed and The Post suddenly taking its place to be released during the upcoming awards season. Voters weren't really (i.e. not at all) shaken by this, seeing as a majority is leaning towards two earlier release dates: Dunkirk and Untitled Detroit Project. Both seem ambitious and baity enough, but they also have two main things going against them: genre bias in Nolan's case and having won before in Bigelow's. Having said that, all recent BP winners have come out before December and have premiered in a fall festival, so that could also go against some films which are next in line for now, especially PTA's working title Phantom Thread, Payne's Downsizing or Haynes' Wonderstruck. November release Darkest Hour seems like a safer bet, even though most eyes are on Oldman's performance. All in all, the Academy has also moved past more conventional films and towards independent underdogs, which could favor Sundance hit Call Me By Your Name... unless the overdue factor tips the balance this year, which could affect a good number of these presumed frontrunners. Adding MAredux' and OB's votes, this is what we have so far. Feel free to guess how many will actually be BP nominated.
1. Dunkirk - 14 votes (19%)
2. Untitled Detroit Project - 11 votes (15%)
3. Phantom Thread - 10 votes (14%)
4. Call Me By Your Name - 6 votes (8%)
4. Downsizing - 6 votes (8%)
4. Wonderstruck - 6 votes (8%)
7. Darkest Hour - 5 votes (7%)
8. Mudbound - 4 votes (6%)
9. The Greatest Showman - 2 votes (3%)
9. Molly's Game - 2 votes (3%)
11. The Beguiled - 1 vote (1%)
11. The Big Sick - 1 vote (1%)
11. Inner City - 1 vote (1%)
11. The Lost City of Z - 1 vote (1%)
11. Mother! - 1 vote (1%)
11. Suburbicon - 1 vote (1%)
Total: 72 votes