morton
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Post by morton on Sept 28, 2019 21:19:06 GMT
Here's a question: could Jessie Buckley get swept up with the support for Zellweger? Buckley's had a killer couple of years, is a possible Globe nominee for Wild Rose and was recently in Chernobyl. I don't think she has a chance at all. Aside from Zellweger's Judy, I thought all the other characters were pretty thankless roles. Buckley does her best, but she has so little to work with. I also don't think the film will be that strong in any categories except Best Actress, so I don't think that Buckley would be able to make it just based on strength of her film like a Marina de Tavira or Jacki Weaver. Like last year I thought that Lucy Boynton might be able to coattail at least at BAFTA in that revolving Best Supporting Actress spot, but even she couldn't get traction despite being in a stronger film. For me I thought Buckley got even less to do than Boynton did, so I can't see Buckley making it in anywhere.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Sept 28, 2019 23:18:56 GMT
Here's a question: could Jessie Buckley get swept up with the support for Zellweger? Buckley's had a killer couple of years, is a possible Globe nominee for Wild Rose and was recently in Chernobyl. I don't think she has a chance at all. Aside from Zellweger's Judy, I thought all the other characters were pretty thankless roles. Buckley does her best, but she has so little to work with. I also don't think the film will be that strong in any categories except Best Actress, so I don't think that Buckley would be able to make it just based on strength of her film like a Marina de Tavira or Jacki Weaver. Like last year I thought that Lucy Boynton might be able to coattail at least at BAFTA in that revolving Best Supporting Actress spot, but even she couldn't get traction despite being in a stronger film. For me I thought Buckley got even less to do than Boynton did, so I can't see Buckley making it in anywhere. This makes sense, and I agree. I haven't seen the film yet (it's coming to my theater next month), but from what I've heard Judy is The Renee show through and through, and everyone else is playing heavily secondary to her. The academy has nominated "thankless throwaway supporting" parts before, some of which you've brought-up, but they've usually been nominations swept up in the popularity of the film with the academy. Outside of Zellweger Judy is basically a "non-starter", so it's hard to see it getting a second acting nomination, when it isn't likely to get nominated in any other categories.
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 29, 2019 11:12:57 GMT
Best Actress in a Supporting Role 1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey 5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit 6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 7. Annette Bening, The Report 8. Florence Pugh, Little Women 9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit 10. Octavia Spencer, Luce
Dern is coming off a strong few years, has the reviews, a likely top 5 BP nominee, has Little Women coming up and is well-liked in Hollywood. It feels like a perfect time to reward her. I think Lopez is going to campaign her ass off + reviews + buzz + SuperBowl half-time performance. Robbie is filler. Smith is a beloved veteran in a 'surprise' box office hit. I think Jojo Rabbit is going to be a bigger success than people expect, so that'll help Johansson sneak in.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Sept 29, 2019 15:59:02 GMT
I'm sitting on Dern for the rest of the season since I stuck her there when her GD odds where a lot worse than they are now. I don't even know how that site works but her odds increased since then. Eh.
Other than that, I'm waiting for a reason to take out Bening, hasn't happened yet.
Johansson Zhou Lopez
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 7, 2019 18:54:41 GMT
In an ideal world Cho Yeo Jeong(Parasite)would be a front runner in this category,but I don't think that's going to happen. I was just thinking about her in this category - if Marina de Tavira with zero precursors could get nom'd for Roma in a nothing performance (sorry) - why can't Jo Yeo-Jeong get in here? Parasite team have been doing a lot of campaigning already and if she starts showing up for some critics awards that'd be huge.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2019 15:15:34 GMT
It's between Laura Dern, Jennifer Lopez, and Margot Robbie (Bombshell) for the win... The other two women will be happy to be nominated.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 20, 2019 16:37:37 GMT
It's between Dern and Dern actually... I can't see how she's not wining.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 24, 2019 13:41:02 GMT
So Pugh is happening now right? I mean there's not much else going on. I just knocked Bening out of my 5 for her.
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Post by Allenism on Oct 24, 2019 14:08:26 GMT
Dern Robbie Johansson Pugh Shuzhen
Alt: Lopez
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 24, 2019 14:48:55 GMT
Call me nuts but I definitely think that JLo could easily win next year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 24, 2019 15:00:07 GMT
So Pugh is happening now right? I mean there's not much else going on. I just knocked Bening out of my 5 for her. I guess she could still miss because I don't think reviews have come out yet just reactions, but it's looking very good for her so far. Unfortunately I think The Report is dead. Amazon took it to a few festivals, but there just hasn't been much buzz about it, and I think they're just mostly sitting this year out in major categories. Anyway Allenism's predictions look about what I expect here now, I'm still not sure about Johansson getting double nominations. However, this category still feels open as far as a winner, so maybe she can pull a Lange after all although I'm still predicting Dern for the win. I know that Lopez has raves, but she'll probably be a lone nominee, and voters might be more snobby than pundits, so I think that she could miss. Actually I think aside from Dern and Robbie, anyone could still miss. Shuzhen because she's basically an unknown, and she probably won't be nominated at many of the other televised precursors perhaps only the Spirits. Pugh because she's still a newcomer, and reviews might be different than reactions. Johansson and Lopez for reasons I already stated. There's also Kathy Bates or Olivia Wilde that could still factor in, or less likely but you never know, someone from Cats, but I think that this is probably it for Best Supporting Actress just as Best Actor and Best Actress have been narrowed down to 6-7 likely nominees now.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 24, 2019 15:33:54 GMT
I still think Pugh will miss,despite the strong initial responses on Twitter.LW isn't released until Dec 25th,the Oscars are on 9th Feb,she barely has anytime to campaign.
Laura Dern Jennifer Lopez Margot Robbie Annette Bening Maggie Smith
Alt:Zhao Shuzhen
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 24, 2019 15:43:59 GMT
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story *** 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 5. Annette Bening, The Report 6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 24, 2019 15:59:25 GMT
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story *** 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 5. Annette Bening, The Report 6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey Yeah, it's definitely going to be between Dern and JLo. I still think JLo will win, though.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 24, 2019 16:09:50 GMT
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story *** 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 5. Annette Bening, The Report 6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey Yeah, it's definitely going to be between Dern and JLo. I still think JLo will win, though. Well, I'm not saying it's going to be between the two of them. Imo it will be Dern all the way! The list I made is in order but not exactly... That's why I posted 7 names. Pugh could be the runner up or Smith could move up and be nominated etc.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 24, 2019 16:12:19 GMT
Dern Johansson Lopez Pugh Robbie (Bombshell)
Shuzhen
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 24, 2019 16:42:06 GMT
Yeah, it's definitely going to be between Dern and JLo. I still think JLo will win, though. Well, I'm not saying it's going to be between the two of them. Imo it will be Dern all the way! The list I made is in order but not exactly... That's why I posted 7 names. Pugh could be the runner up or Smith could move up and be nominated etc. Well you still have JLo as your 1st RU so...
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Post by ptacoenlover on Oct 24, 2019 19:00:58 GMT
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story *** 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 5. Annette Bening, The Report 6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey I'm curious why you still think Robbie gets in for OUATIH and not Bombshell?
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 24, 2019 19:09:59 GMT
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story *** 2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell 5. Annette Bening, The Report 6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 7. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey I'm curious why you still think Robbie gets in for OUATIH and not Bombshell? Only because they are promoting OUATIH with all they got. Robbie had almost nothing to do in this movie, I guess she is much better in Bombshell. But that alone is not enough.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 24, 2019 20:28:23 GMT
Call me nuts but I definitely think that JLo could easily win next year. NUTS. I think you will regret making this claim come Feb.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Oct 24, 2019 21:17:50 GMT
Call me nuts but I definitely think that JLo could easily win next year. NUTS. I think you will regret making this claim come Feb. Life is a gamble. There are no sureties. If you want something badly, you'd have to trust your heart and your instincts and then take a leap of faith.😁
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Post by stephen on Nov 10, 2019 23:26:29 GMT
Updated with poll.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 10, 2019 23:50:24 GMT
I have so many doubts about this category...
1. Laura Dern 2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell 3. Florence Pugh, Little Women 4. Jennifer Lopez 5. Shuzhen Zhao
Ugh, so I feel confident in the top two and I feel pretty good about Pugh getting in.
Lopez has been deemed a lock by a lot of people but even though I am predicting her, I still have some doubts about the Academy suddenly embracing her. Then again, with such a barren year it doesn't seem that crazy.
The fifth spot is even more difficult but I don't even know who to pick aside from Shuzhen Zhao. Who does give a very likeable performance and I believe has recently even joined the campaign.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 11, 2019 0:00:44 GMT
I still have no idea with this category beyond the top 2. It feels like there's a consensus 7-8, but at the same I feel it's still the most unpredictable of all the acting categories because almost everyone has cons too.
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story - I keep hearing that this isn't a winning role at all, which worries me for the win, but she basically has no competition that I think her narrative plus the strength of her film will carry her to victory in the end.
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell - Still no reviews, but it seems like she'll be in for this or OUATIH. Could possibly vote split, but her role here seems stronger although OUATIH will certainly be the stronger film. Thought at one time she could contend for the win because Dern is such a weak frontrunner, but she keeps getting overshadowed in the reactions by Theron. Maybe reviews will be different, but I don't think she's a threat to Dern now.
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers - She could still surprise and beat Dern, but at the same time I do think that she might end up actually being snubbed because she'll likely be the only nomination for Hustlers, and even at SAG, I no longer think that Hustlers has a good chance at Ensemble since that category has so many possibilities now. If this category were stronger, I do think she'd be at real risk of missing.
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women - Somewhat like Robbie's situation in that there's no reviews yet only reactions, but she's been singled out in many of them which is surprising because usually Amy March isn't that kind of role. Plus she's having a great year with Fighting With My Family and Midsommar that she makes sense here.
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit - I guess? I expect that Jojo Rabbit will get at least one acting nomination because I feel like the actors' branch will love it the most, and she feels more likely then Thomasin McKenzie to me. Double nominations are rare though, and generally someone who gets double nominations, unless they've won a short time before (Blanchett, Thompson) win something, not always, but I can't see her winning for this or being able to beat Zellweger, which is why I doubt she'll be able to get double noms. I guess she could be like Weaver and Moore, but it just seems odd right now.
I mean it's hard to tell whether she's actually well liked/respected enough to get double nominations because the only year that she really had Oscar buzz, there was category confusion that lead to her missing in both categories. After that she really hasn't done anything that had real Oscar buzz, so maybe she can pull it off. I just can't wrap my head around her going from being nominated zero times to potentially getting two acting nominations in the same year.
6. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell - I don't know, but she's a veteran and just going by the trailer, it could be the type of role (sympathetic mom) that they eat up in this category.
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell - I want to predict her so bad, but I feel like The Farewell is fading in almost every category except Original Screenplay. Plus, she's not campaigning at all, and as someone who is so unknown in Hollywood, she really needed to imo.
8. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Maybe Bombshell will ultimately disappoint once reviews are finally out?
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey - Don't see her actually getting the Oscar nomination, but she could definitely pop up at quite a few precursors.
10. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name - I can see SAG going for her especially if there's screener issues with late releases again. Sadly that will probably be her only major televised precursor.
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Post by Sharbs on Nov 11, 2019 1:20:32 GMT
Laura Dern Jennifer Lopez Florence Pugh Margot Robbie (Bombshell) Maggie Smith
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