fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 10, 2017 14:53:44 GMT
Hey guys, I'm taking over from Tibbs this year to run our monthly BP poll. I know there was a thread about this a week or two ago, but I figured we could stick to the same format we're used to. That thread also helped shed some light on possible early frontrunners, so hopefully it won't mean less participants here, but more. In fact, apparently the poll function here doesn't let us add more options, so considering what was said in that previous thread, I'll try to list all possible contenders, which will in turn bring more attention to them. In any case, please only use the poll function to vote. You can post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied. I'll keep it open for a few days. If you have any other suggestions (including additional contenders for this or next month's poll), post them below as well or PM me, seeing as this is the first month we're doing it here and it might need some adjustment. These were the results in March last year. Only one eventual BP nominee out of 9, so we didn't exactly hit the mark there. Hopefully this month our guesses will be more accurate.
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atn
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Post by atn on Mar 10, 2017 14:55:09 GMT
I'll bite.
Elle. Dunkirk as alternate.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Mar 10, 2017 15:00:44 GMT
Dunkirk seems as reasonable a shot in the dark as any.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 15:33:10 GMT
Wonderstruck
alt: Downsizing
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 15:44:39 GMT
Phantom Thread
PS Cmon! Dunkirk isn't winning. Screenshot it. FUCKING SCREENSHOT THIS FUCKING COMMENT. DUNKIRK ISNT WINNING NOLAN FANBOTS TAKE THAT KICK IN THE FUCKIN NUTS!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 15:45:15 GMT
Where's tibbs btw?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 15:58:42 GMT
Phantom Thread PS Cmon! Dunkirk isn't winning. Screenshot it. FUCKING SCREENSHOT THIS FUCKING COMMENT. DUNKIRK ISNT WINNING NOLAN FANBOTS TAKE THAT KICK IN THE FUCKIN NUTS!!! PTA is not winning for a likely late screener and December release about DDL as a fashion designer in a sexual relationship with young model-- especially when Focus already has prime Oscar bait with Darkest Hour
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Mar 10, 2017 16:02:36 GMT
Bigelow's Detroit movie.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 16:13:48 GMT
Phantom Thread PS Cmon! Dunkirk isn't winning. Screenshot it. FUCKING SCREENSHOT THIS FUCKING COMMENT. DUNKIRK ISNT WINNING NOLAN FANBOTS TAKE THAT KICK IN THE FUCKIN NUTS!!! PTA is not winning for a likely late screener and December release about DDL as a fashion designer in a sexual relationship with young model-- especially when Focus already has prime Oscar bait with Darkest Hour Goddamn I'm watching. In my argument, last year's Moonlight win really shows that the Academy has become more willing to bend itself than before, which def benefits PTA. And also had no idea that The Darkest Hour is also run by Focus, so it could really mean a great year for Focus. It knows how to get its actors in, and DDL's character does seem meaty enough (it almost always is with an established director), and all of his noms have been for BP nominees only, which benefits the movie. And it's DDL, so unless it turns out to be as shitty as Nine (which, seeing PTA's track record, isn't supposed to turn out as), the movie's safe. Noteworthy to mention that PTA's only BP contender yet has basically been a DDL vehicle. Still, nothing can be commented unless one has seen both films.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 16:17:04 GMT
Oh, and out of the frontrunners, I must say Dunkirk, tho I'm confident about neither's chances, tho I do think Bigelow gets nommed.
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spiralstatic
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Maybe you're like Dangermouse: small, but mighty... ? ??!?!?!
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Post by spiralstatic on Mar 10, 2017 17:24:29 GMT
I was tempted to click Okja, but I went for The Beguiled. Please be sure to remind me sharpish if either film does especially well as I'll also purchase a lottery ticket as... who has any clue how any of these films will be in and of themselves, let alone critically?! Quite fun to do a guess though!
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Post by quetee on Mar 10, 2017 18:42:56 GMT
Isn't it better for us to submit the movie? Don't change th methodology.
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Post by pendragon on Mar 10, 2017 18:46:44 GMT
Bigelow's Detroit film makes the most sense at this point, but so little is really known about most of these.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 10, 2017 19:06:58 GMT
Isn't it better for us to submit the movie? Don't change th methodology. Yes, if the methodology is changed, I think there should at least be an other option. I can't think of any option that wasn't on the poll, but I'm sure that there are people who can. At this point nothing really stands out, so I voted for Downsizing. I'm not particularly confident in it, but I'm less confident in the other options. After Interstellar, I have a feeling that Nolan ends up like Rob Reiner, someone that got DGA love but never really any AMPAS love; although, Dunkirk could end up with a Best Picture nomination in an expanded field. I could see Wonderstruck racking up nominations like Carol and Far From Heaven, but I don't think it will be in contention for the top prize and will miss like those other two. Since Chicago and Million Dollar Baby, AMPAS has just not been kind to women lead pictures, and I think that was a small part of why La La Land lost although not the biggest reason. Untitled Detroit Project sounds "important" and "baity", but I think it would be amazing for Bigelow to just be nominated for Best Director twice let alone win Best Picture twice. I just think the odds are against her. Further, I think that Inner City and The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara will be 2018 films, but I think they both could be big players next year. For some reason, now that Washington has finally been nominated for acting in a film nominated for Best Picture, I think that he comes right back with his next "baity" film with it winning Best Actor and Best Picture. I think that they give Spielberg at least one more Best Picture Oscar someday too.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 10, 2017 19:19:47 GMT
Isn't it better for us to submit the movie? Don't change th methodology. Well we couldn't have polls on IMDb and this makes it easier to tally. If you wanna vote for something that's not listed, feel free to say so.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 10, 2017 19:23:00 GMT
Isn't it better for us to submit the movie? Don't change th methodology. Yes, if the methodology is changed, I think there should at least be an other option. I can't think of any option that wasn't on the poll, but I'm sure that there are people who can. At this point nothing really stands out, so I voted for Downsizing. I'm not particularly confident in it, but I'm less confident in the other options. After Interstellar, I have a feeling that Nolan ends up like Rob Reiner, someone that got DGA love but never really any AMPAS love; although, Dunkirk could end up with a Best Picture nomination in an expanded field. I could see Wonderstruck racking up nominations like Carol and Far From Heaven, but I don't think it will be in contention for the top prize and will miss like those other two. Since Chicago and Million Dollar Baby, AMPAS has just not been kind to women lead pictures, and I think that was a small part of why La La Land lost although not the biggest reason. Untitled Detroit Project sounds "important" and "baity", but I think it would be amazing for Bigelow to just be nominated for Best Director twice let alone win Best Picture twice. I just think the odds are against her. Further, I think that Inner City and The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara will be 2018 films, but I think they both could be big players next year. For some reason, now that Washington has finally been nominated for acting in a film nominated for Best Picture, I think that he comes right back with his next "baity" film with it winning Best Actor and Best Picture. I think that they give Spielberg at least one more Best Picture Oscar someday too. I can't let others add options to the poll, so I thought having a comprehensive list was the best way to do it. Again, if you wanna vote for something that's not listed, you can of course say so and I'd edit the poll.
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Post by quetee on Mar 10, 2017 19:24:15 GMT
Isn't it better for us to submit the movie? Don't change th methodology. Yes, if the methodology is changed, I think there should at least be an other option. I can't think of any option that wasn't on the poll, but I'm sure that there are people who can. At this point nothing really stands out, so I voted for Downsizing. I'm not particularly confident in it, but I'm less confident in the other options. After Interstellar, I have a feeling that Nolan ends up like Rob Reiner, someone that got DGA love but never really any AMPAS love; although, Dunkirk could end up with a Best Picture nomination in an expanded field. I could see Wonderstruck racking up nominations like Carol and Far From Heaven, but I don't think it will be in contention for the top prize and will miss like those other two. Since Chicago and Million Dollar Baby, AMPAS has just not been kind to women lead pictures, and I think that was a small part of why La La Land lost although not the biggest reason. Untitled Detroit Project sounds "important" and "baity", but I think it would be amazing for Bigelow to just be nominated for Best Director twice let alone win Best Picture twice. I just think the odds are against her. Further, I think that Inner City and The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara will be 2018 films, but I think they both could be big players next year. For some reason, now that Washington has finally been nominated for acting in a film nominated for Best Picture, I think that he comes right back with his next "baity" film with it winning Best Actor and Best Picture. I think that they give Spielberg at least one more Best Picture Oscar someday too. the big sick is not on there. Last year, I picked Manchester by the sea due to the fact that I figured sooner rather than later amazon will win bp. They have two contenders this year: lost city of z and the big sick. One of those is scoring the nod.
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Post by quetee on Mar 10, 2017 19:25:39 GMT
Please add the big sick to the poll.thanks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 19:43:26 GMT
Lol, The Big Sick is 100% not happening-- I feel very confident about that
Its an Apatow summer release, and Amazon will just push bigger priorities like Wonder Wheel, Wonderstruck, and the new Linklater this fall
Love and Friendship was a huge hit, but Amazon didnt bother pushing that last year
It'll get Globe noms but wont come close to matching Bridesmaids success and that still missed out on BP nom
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Post by joephoenix on Mar 10, 2017 21:18:07 GMT
Idk, it seemed like last year there were more obvious choices like Silence and Loving even if they ended up doing worse than we expected. Seems pretty open this year. I'll say Bigelow's Detroit movie for now.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 10, 2017 22:08:27 GMT
lol you guys Dunkirk has no chance
Darkest Hour, just because it's an easy bet. Joe Wright is an Oscar darling and it's a baity concept.
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Post by Martin Stett on Mar 10, 2017 23:19:13 GMT
I said Molly's Game before, but now I've read up on several more of the contenders.
Hmm. I'll stick with Molly's Game, although Wonderstruck and Lean on Pete look like Oscar material big time.
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Post by quetee on Mar 10, 2017 23:19:24 GMT
Lol, The Big Sick is 100% not happening-- I feel very confident about that Its an Apatow summer release, and Amazon will just push bigger priorities like Wonder Wheel, Wonderstruck, and the new Linklater this fall Love and Friendship was a huge hit, but Amazon didnt bother pushing that last year It'll get Globe noms but wont come close to matching Bridesmaids success and that still missed out on BP nom it's March so there are no dumb picks especially with our track record. My goal at this point is to at least pick a contender. Woody is hit..miss as for the other two, I had no clue there were from amazon. I know of lost city and two Sundance buys: big sick and crown heights. Anyway, the point is to keep an eye on amazon because I'm sure the will score another nod and it may not be next year but the will eventually win bp.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 10, 2017 23:48:45 GMT
Please add the big sick to the poll.thanks. Huh, I thought I could edit the poll later but apparently I can't. I'll count your vote for The Big Sick though, and add it to next month's poll.
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gyllet
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Post by gyllet on Mar 11, 2017 2:15:50 GMT
The Greatest Showman.
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