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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2019 12:50:46 GMT
Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Michigan North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Maybe Texas? Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia by really slim margins, so I'm assuming T**** will go hard after those?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 8, 2019 13:40:10 GMT
Those polls that show Trump losing Texas are delusional to me - no way. I go to Texas for my job sometimes it's redder than red. I also don't think the polls that show Dems running strong in some states are realistic anyway - they are hypothetical scenarios where people are sort of answering ABT (anybody but Trump) but when it comes down to a specific like Warren or Trump well they're not going to pick an older woman over an incumbent male (no matter how well versed she is in policy talks which I think gets her the Dem nod) I think he wins Ohio and Florida rather easily actually ..........and so he just needs to win 2 of these 3 : Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan Now if he loses Florida, he loses. If there's a mathematical formula that suggests something else I'd love to hear it though. I think about this all the time, it haunts my nightmares more or less
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2019 14:11:45 GMT
Those polls that show Trump losing Texas are delusional to me - no way. I go to Texas for my job sometimes it's redder than red. I also don't think the polls that show Dems running strong in some states are realistic anyway - they are hypothetical scenarios where people are sort of answering ABT (anybody but Trump) but when it comes down to a specific like Warren or Trump well they're not going to pick an older woman over an incumbent male (no matter how well versed she is in policy talks which I think gets her the Dem nod) I think he wins Ohio and Florida rather easily actually ..........and so he just needs to win 2 of these 3 : Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan Now if he loses Florida, he loses. If there's a mathematical formula that suggests something else I'd love to hear it though. I think about this all the time, it haunts my nightmares more or less So you're predicting that he takes every single swing state plus the three he flipped in 2016?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 8, 2019 14:37:54 GMT
Well, I wouldn't say that exactly - depending who his opponent is for example he could lose Pennsylvania say and still win by a more narrow margin than he won last time (I think he was at 306 electoral last time?) I think what is in play here however is he can run deeper this time than last in swing states because he has obscene amounts of money already, he has incumbent advantage too, and he can now say to people who were always iffy, I have a record now you don't have to be afraid of me - "I didn't do that bad, everybody's got a job.........I could have done a lot worse!". On the other hand, there's still a billion scandals left to go until election day and you know.............Twitter
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2019 18:43:48 GMT
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 25, 2019 19:06:25 GMT
I would guess the fear if you are wanting him out of office is the high negative approval rating is comprised of people who just find him unctuous and who won't actually come out to vote come election day. I dunno, let's see how the Russians tell us to vote and reassess comrade.
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Post by countjohn on Jul 27, 2019 4:21:47 GMT
I'll say the big three rust belt states, Florida, and Arizona. North Carolina and Georgia are long shots and will only be in play if Trump is really screwed. Ohio and Iowa are probably going to be Republican leaners going forward. Texas will inevitably become a swing state down the line (maybe even in 2024) with the demographic changes but probably not this time, and definitely not with the candidates. A perfect Dem candidate like 92 Bill Clinton would have a chance at turning Texas vs Trump but there's no one like that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2019 20:45:26 GMT
I'll say the big three rust belt states, Florida, and Arizona. North Carolina and Georgia are long shots and will only be in play if Trump is really screwed. Ohio and Iowa are probably going to be Republican leaners going forward. Texas will inevitably become a swing state down the line (maybe even in 2024) with the demographic changes but probably not this time, and definitely not with the candidates. A perfect Dem candidate like 92 Bill Clinton would have a chance at turning Texas vs Trump but there's no one like that. I really don't see how AZ is more in play than NC... Congressional representation is not an accurate baramoter because NC is so terribly gerrymandered in Republicans' favor. Democrats received 50% of the votes across all Congressional races in the state in 2018, but only 3 out of NC's 13 Congresspeople are Democrats. The state went for Obama in 2008, has a nearly 30% African American population, Raleigh and Charlotte are full of liberal transplants, etc....
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Post by jimmalone on Jul 28, 2019 12:39:48 GMT
Pretty sure that Texas won't be won by the Democrats. If O'Rourke didn't beat Cruz I don't see anybody else beat Trump there. Also think that Georgia won't happen.
The others I agree are possible to change around.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Aug 18, 2019 22:49:22 GMT
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Post by countjohn on Aug 19, 2019 2:20:41 GMT
The "protest vote" is an interesting way to look at it. You could say a protest voter in 2016 isn't going to be likely to vote for the incumbent the next time, whether they vote for the Dem, third party, or stay home. It should be noted Trump did not improve on the Republicans 2012 performance, he just won because more third party votes lowered the ceiling for what he needed to do to win.
I still don't think it's a good idea to use midterm results to predict a Presidential election is 94 vs 96 and 10 vs 12 are any indication. Although one thing to note here is that the composition of the electorate favors Democrats more in presidential years, which is why you see Dems outperform in the presidential election vs their midterm performance sometimes but not Republicans as much.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 1:17:57 GMT
So, based on an email I received this morning, the states the Democratic apparatus plan on hitting hardest are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Thoughts?
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 24, 2020 2:10:03 GMT
So, based on an email I received this morning, the states the Democratic apparatus plan on hitting hardest are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Thoughts? Good luck.
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Post by morton on Jan 24, 2020 7:21:02 GMT
So, based on an email I received this morning, the states the Democratic apparatus plan on hitting hardest are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Thoughts? Good luck. I don't know much about Florida, but Florida always seems like a clusterfuck. Maybe it's better for the Dems to just go hard in those other states. Also glad that they're not targeting Ohio because sadly I think it's a lost cause. We seem to be getting more conservative as a whole.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2020 12:07:07 GMT
I don't know much about Florida, but Florida always seems like a clusterfuck. Maybe it's better for the Dems to just go hard in those other states. Also glad that they're not targeting Ohio because sadly I think it's a lost cause. We seem to be getting more conservative as a whole. It looks like they've given up on Iowa, too - another state that went for Obama twice. So disheartening.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 24, 2020 23:39:23 GMT
I don't know much about Florida, but Florida always seems like a clusterfuck. Maybe it's better for the Dems to just go hard in those other states. Also glad that they're not targeting Ohio because sadly I think it's a lost cause. We seem to be getting more conservative as a whole. It looks like they've given up on Iowa, too - another state that went for Obama twice. So disheartening. Trump won huge in Iowa last time and his approvals are still pretty good there. Doesn't really make sense for it to be a target. As for the Florida discussion it was super close last time and Obama won it twice before that. It's a huge state, makes sense to campaign there if it's contested. Last I saw Trump's approvals weren't very good in Florida either.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2020 14:10:09 GMT
It looks like they've given up on Iowa, too - another state that went for Obama twice. So disheartening. Trump won huge in Iowa last time and his approvals are still pretty good there. Doesn't really make sense for it to be a target. As for the Florida discussion it was super close last time and Obama won it twice before that. It's a huge state, makes sense to campaign there if it's contested. Last I saw Trump's approvals weren't very good in Florida either. I see Florida the same as I see North Carolina - he's very popular in the rural areas, but deeply unpopular in the more cosmopolitan metros. The RNC is going to be held in Charlotte this year (the DNC is in Milwaukee) - I really hope one of his rabid supporters doesn't kill a protester.
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