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Post by stephen on Nov 4, 2019 20:52:38 GMT
I have the nagging suspicion we're gonna see George Mackay sneak into BAFTA for 1917. I've heard a lot of rumblings that he's excellent in the role, he recently was up for BAFTA Rising Star, and I think 1917 is gonna be the big spoiler for the British bloc this year. i think we're underestimating 1917. I think it's the big tech player this year, and I think Mendes could prove to be a massive threat to Scorsese.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 9, 2019 21:44:50 GMT
Yay, we have a poll now!
Anyways, at this point in time my predictions here look like this:
- Joaquin Phoenix - Adam Driver - Leonardo DiCaprio - Antonio Banderas - Robert De Niro
Phoenix and Driver are pretty much locks, I think. DiCaprio feels rather safe to me as well, and I genuinely do have a very strong feeling about Banderas who is also campaigning his ass off which only helps build my confidence in him. De Niro feels like a very formidable contender as well, and since the whole film is having that 'legends getting back together after all these years' vibe to it I feel that the voters may respond to that notion very strongly and recognize the whole group.
Of course Jonathan Pryce could also have a good shot but I'm not sure he can make it in such a strong year and I'm a bit on the fence about his movie's chances in general. I'm predicting it for three nods now (BP, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay) but I can absolutely see the situation in which it underwhelms and only gets in for screenplay.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 22:14:57 GMT
Somebody voted for just 1 actor, messing up the poll.
ETA: Okay, all good now.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 9, 2019 23:45:35 GMT
Pretty much the same as before,
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker 2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story 3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes 5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman 6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory 7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari 8. Eddie Murphy, My Name Is Dolemite 9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman 10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
I think Driver and Phoenix are pretty much locked in. DiCaprio I guess could miss because he's not going to win this time, but I find that hard to believe until it actually happens because he's playing a struggling actor in what will likely be a top 5 BP nominee perhaps even top 3 BP nominee.
Then, there's the last two spots. It seems like Pryce should be in because audiences just love The Two Popes for the most part, and he's playing a well known real life person, but Netflix has 4 possible Best Actor candidates, and The Two Popes is their last release which might matter in a short season. I also found out today that he'll be on Broadway until November 24 too. So I'm still iffy. He makes a lot of sense, but at the same time so does almost everyone else fighting for one of the last two spots.
For the last spot, I went with De Niro even though I keep going back and forth on this. Banderas makes total sense as a passion pick, but I don't know who to leave out. I'm predicting The Irishman to win Best Picture, so I don't think I can leave De Niro out in that scenario. I guess if The Irishman ends up not being strong enough to win BP or even BD that De Niro could certainly miss, but I think that it should do very well early on before the Oscar ceremony perhaps winning both the Drama Globe and Best Picture at the Critics Choice.
After watching Pain and Glory last night, I also think that Banderas will make it in somehow, but I don't know whether to boot Pryce or De Niro at this point. So I'll just leave him in sixth for now.
Then, Egerton and Murphy might show up at the Globes, Critics Choice Comedy, and at SAG, and Egerton could also get a BAFTA nomination, but I think in the end they'll both miss the Oscar nomination. If Egerton does get a BAFTA nomination though, I think that Pryce could be the most hurt by it though because the British bloc that I have supporting Pryce could throw their support behind Egerton, or perhaps they'll be split resulting in neither Egerton or Pryce getting in.
Bale going leading throws another wrench into things too because he could hit SAG and BAFTA, and he'll definitely hit the Globes and Critics Choice. It's probably dangerous to bet against him this decade, but I feel like he'll miss this time. Him going leading though might end up hurting other potential nominees like perhaps Egerton and/or Pryce because of the British support. I don't know if this makes sense, but I could see Bale being on a lot of ballots but not in the #1 position but enough to bump other people down on those ballots or completely off of those ballots so someone that seems safe but doesn't seem to have a lot of passion. So maybe it could actually help someone like Banderas who probably will be #1 on quite a few ballots.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 10, 2019 0:05:40 GMT
I think Driver and Phoenix are pretty much locked in. DiCaprio I guess could miss because he's not going to win this time, but I find that hard to believe until it actually happens because he's playing a struggling actor in what will likely be a top 5 BP nominee perhaps even top 3 BP nominee. I think BAFTA will be key for DiCaprio. If he misses there, a snub could be on the cards. The Two Popes is Netflix's 3rd priority at this point, and The Irishman seems to be a top 3 contender. I think that favors De Niro immensely, even if Pryce has other factors going for him (likable performance as a likable and famous person in an accessible movie). The thing with Banderas is that it just feels like something Awards Watch is willing into happening because they have a massive hard-on for anything Almodovar. He has enough buzz now that he can definitely happen, but I can't remember the last time a Foreign Language performance made it into Best Actor in a field as deep as this year's will be. Someone pointed out on Awards Watch that all his nominations this decade happened for top 5 Best Picture nominees, and that's something FvF will have a hard time meeting. I think FvF will need to be a Best Picture nominee for Bale to happen this year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 10, 2019 0:18:21 GMT
I think Driver and Phoenix are pretty much locked in. DiCaprio I guess could miss because he's not going to win this time, but I find that hard to believe until it actually happens because he's playing a struggling actor in what will likely be a top 5 BP nominee perhaps even top 3 BP nominee. I think BAFTA will be key for DiCaprio. If he misses there, a snub could be on the cards. The Two Popes is Netflix's 3rd priority at this point, and The Irishman seems to be a top 3 contender. I think that favors De Niro immensely, even if Pryce has other factors going for him (likable performance as a likable and famous person in an accessible movie). The thing with Banderas is that it just feels like something Awards Watch is willing into happening because they have a massive hard-on for anything Almodovar. He has enough buzz now that he can definitely happen, but I can't remember the last time a Foreign Language performance made it into Best Actor in a field as deep as this year's will be. Someone pointed out on Awards Watch that all his nominations this decade happened for top 5 Best Picture nominees, and that's something FvF will have a hard time meeting. I think FvF will need to be a Best Picture nominee for Bale to happen this year. lol, you're probably right about Pain and Glory. I was afraid that after all the hype from there that I wouldn't end up liking it. I did, but probably not as much as those that actually think it has any chance in Best Director this year. Still I think it can help that Banderas has a lot of friends that will campaign for him, but then again you always hear about campaigning behind the scenes and sometimes it works like Kevin Spacey and Eddie Redmayne basically going door to door in LA for votes, but often it doesn't like all the campaigning that Ben Affleck and some other big named people were doing for Beasts of No Nation. Perhaps the Globes will be the real big indicator of whose in. If Marriage Story goes Drama, the lineup could be something like: Bale, De Niro, Driver, Phoenix, Pryce Or Bale, Banderas, De Niro, Driver, Phoenix Or Bale, Banderas, Driver, Phoenix, Pryce I think Driver and Phoenix are in because duh, and then Bale because he's the biggest star on the Drama side. Then, there's two spots for Banderas, De Niro, and Pryce. Banderas is a pretty big International star, so maybe he sneaks in. I've heard they don't like De Niro after he insulted them, but the Globes are going to Globes and won't mind nominating him if they love The Irishman, which I suspect they will. Like them awarding Gary Oldman despite some saying that it wouldn't happen because of the Globes not liking him for insulting them a long time ago. Finally there's Pryce who probably gets in, but I think The Two Popes would have done better in Comedy/Musical.
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Post by Sharbs on Nov 10, 2019 6:59:47 GMT
Robert De Niro Leonardo DiCaprio Adam Driver Joaquin Phoenix Jonathan Pryce
So badly want to put Sandler in here
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 10, 2019 7:07:57 GMT
now that the poll is up!
1. Adam Driver 2. Jonathan Pryce 3. Joaquin Phoenix 4. Leonardo DiCaprio 5. Antonio Banderas
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 10, 2019 13:38:20 GMT
Nothing has really changed in my mind:
Driver Phoenix Leo De Niro Banderas
No. 6 is Pryce but I don't think he has a real chance.
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Post by morton on Nov 12, 2019 20:35:12 GMT
Stolen from Lubezki in The Irishman thread, Robert De Niro to be honored with SAG Lifetime Achievement Award. I think this is bad news for either Banderas or Pryce. Banderas might only be a lone nomination, and his performance isn't in English. However, he did win Cannes probably wins LAFCA because Driver just won there not to long ago, and all the LAFCA pundits that did some predictions article all had him above Driver and Phoenix for the win. (Obviously they're not very good predictors, but it does show that they're hope predicting.) Plus, in Hollywood he has a higher profile than Pryce. On the other hand, Pryce will probably have the British bloc behind him, and his film has a much higher ceiling. However, he's also the third or fourth priority in Best Actor for Netflix, and his film is coming out in December, and he hasn't really done much campaigning. Further obviously Netflix will ramp things up closer to next month when it is released for it, but I'm not sure it will compare to what they've done for The Irishman and Marriage Story.
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Post by fiosnasiob on Nov 12, 2019 20:45:41 GMT
Driver Phoenix De Niro
Then I don't know, when was the last time we didn't had a Brit on here ? So Pryce and then Leo but he's vulnerable to me.
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Post by stephen on Nov 12, 2019 20:46:09 GMT
Stolen from Lubezki in The Irishman thread, Robert De Niro to be honored with SAG Lifetime Achievement Award. I think this is bad news for either Banderas or Pryce. Banderas might only be a lone nomination, and his performance isn't in English. However, he did win Cannes probably wins LAFCA because Driver just won there not to long ago, and all the LAFCA pundits that did some predictions article all had him above Driver and Phoenix for the win. (Obviously they're not very good predictors, but it does show that they're hope predicting.) Plus, in Hollywood he has a higher profile than Pryce. On the other hand, Pryce will probably have the British bloc behind him, and his film has a much higher ceiling. However, he's also the third or fourth priority in Best Actor for Netflix, and his film is coming out in December, and he hasn't really done much campaigning. Further obviously Netflix will ramp things up closer to next month when it is released for it, but I'm not sure it will compare to what they've done for The Irishman and Marriage Story. Why is this bad news? Wouldn't it be equally as likely that De Niro getting his own award means they can actually nominate Pryce/Banderas and just fall back on the honorary prize and Ensemble for De Niro?
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 12, 2019 21:45:26 GMT
Stolen from Lubezki in The Irishman thread, Robert De Niro to be honored with SAG Lifetime Achievement Award. I think this is bad news for either Banderas or Pryce. Banderas might only be a lone nomination, and his performance isn't in English. However, he did win Cannes probably wins LAFCA because Driver just won there not to long ago, and all the LAFCA pundits that did some predictions article all had him above Driver and Phoenix for the win. (Obviously they're not very good predictors, but it does show that they're hope predicting.) Plus, in Hollywood he has a higher profile than Pryce. On the other hand, Pryce will probably have the British bloc behind him, and his film has a much higher ceiling. However, he's also the third or fourth priority in Best Actor for Netflix, and his film is coming out in December, and he hasn't really done much campaigning. Further obviously Netflix will ramp things up closer to next month when it is released for it, but I'm not sure it will compare to what they've done for The Irishman and Marriage Story. Why is this bad news? Wouldn't it be equally as likely that De Niro getting his own award means they can actually nominate Pryce/Banderas and just fall back on the honorary prize and Ensemble for De Niro? I meant for the Oscar not SAG. I wasn't too confident in De Niro at SAG anyways because Murphy and Egerton seem like one or both could get in, but then miss the Oscar nomination since there's always at least one person that hits both the Globes and SAG who ends up missing in the end. With De Niro getting this boost during awards season, and The Irishman potentially being top 3, at worst probably top 5, it's difficult for me to see him missing the Oscar nomination even if his best scenes are at the end.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 12, 2019 22:37:35 GMT
Why is this bad news? Wouldn't it be equally as likely that De Niro getting his own award means they can actually nominate Pryce/Banderas and just fall back on the honorary prize and Ensemble for De Niro? The Globes work that way, not SAG from what I know. As far as SAG goes, this is just additional visibility for The Irishman and perhaps more people will now watch The Irishman.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Nov 13, 2019 20:56:30 GMT
Still think Banderas and Pryce are in... when categories are this competitive, number one votes count a lot, and Banderas and Pryce are going to get plenty: likable performances, novelty factor (never been nominated before), voting blocs behind them (international & British), and in Pryce's case he has Netflix behind him and they're not going to give up on The Two Popes. As for Banderas, he has a lot of friends in Hollywood - also important.
It kinda reminds me of Actress 2016 when everyone was predicting Amy Adams in Arrival because she was the lead in a Top 3-5 contender and had been nominated everywhere etc. But she was no one's number one choice, and Huppert and Negga were... despite having way more things against them on paper. I think same thing happens this year and a major contender is left out (except Phoenix; he's locked).
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Post by Allenism on Nov 13, 2019 22:28:23 GMT
Driver Phoenix De Niro DiCaprio Banderas
Alt: Pryce
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Post by Good God on Nov 13, 2019 22:34:03 GMT
Saw something interesting regarding De Niro and SAG on Awards Watch, and thought I'd post it here.
James Garner got the SAG Life Achievement Award in 2004 and he managed a completely random and unexpected nomination for The Notebook in Best Supporting Actor the same year. According to IMDb, that's the only individual notice he got from any awards body for The Notebook. So, yeah, it's definitely not a negative for De Niro.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 16, 2019 18:58:09 GMT
Saw something interesting regarding De Niro and SAG on Awards Watch, and thought I'd post it here. James Garner got the SAG Life Achievement Award in 2004 and he managed a completely random and unexpected nomination for The Notebook in Best Supporting Actor the same year. According to IMDb, that's the only individual notice he got from any awards body for The Notebook. So, yeah, it's definitely not a negative for De Niro. With Ford v Ferrari getting an A+ score and looking to get over 30 million at the box office this weekend, I can't believe that this category got even tougher to predict. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory Robert De Niro, The Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Taron Egerton, Rocketman Eddie Murphy, My Name Is Dolemite Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Right now other than the top two (Phoenix and Driver) and the bottom two (Egerton and Murphy), I don't know who the other three spots would go to. -Ford v Ferrari could still get a BP nomination which would help Bale out a lot as so far he hasn't missed when his film gets a BP nomination. He was probably runner-up last year, although I don't know that it means much because Malek probably won by such a large margin that whoever was in second place was probably much closer in vote totals to whoever was in third place than to Malek. -Banderas will be Driver's big challenger for the top tier awards, and of course Banderas has been working a long time in the industry and has lots of friends that will campaign for him. -The Irishman is one of the best reviewed movies of the year, and it's the first time that he's been reunited with Scorsese since the 90s. -Could OUATIH be the favorite right now? This article from The Playlist believes that it is because of the shortened season. I know some people are bold and predicting that DiCaprio might be a surprise snub because he just won and would be just filler, but if it wins BP and because he's playing a struggling actor, I can't see him missing. -I think it's won the most audience awards of any film this year, and looks to be very similar to Philomena in that it appeals to a certain demographic that will eat it up. Plus Pryce has also worked in the industry a long time like Banderas and has never been nominated.
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Post by Good God on Nov 16, 2019 21:01:05 GMT
With Ford v Ferrari getting an A+ score and looking to get over 30 million at the box office this weekend, I can't believe that this category got even tougher to predict. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory Robert De Niro, The Irishman Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver, Marriage Story Taron Egerton, Rocketman Eddie Murphy, My Name Is Dolemite Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes Right now other than the top two (Phoenix and Driver) and the bottom two (Egerton and Murphy), I don't know who the other three spots would go to. -Ford v Ferrari could still get a BP nomination which would help Bale out a lot as so far he hasn't missed when his film gets a BP nomination. He was probably runner-up last year, although I don't know that it means much because Malek probably won by such a large margin that whoever was in second place was probably much closer in vote totals to whoever was in third place than to Malek. -Banderas will be Driver's big challenger for the top tier awards, and of course Banderas has been working a long time in the industry and has lots of friends that will campaign for him. -The Irishman is one of the best reviewed movies of the year, and it's the first time that he's been reunited with Scorsese since the 90s. -Could OUATIH be the favorite right now? This article from The Playlist believes that it is because of the shortened season. I know some people are bold and predicting that DiCaprio might be a surprise snub because he just won and would be just filler, but if it wins BP and because he's playing a struggling actor, I can't see him missing. -I think it's won the most audience awards of any film this year, and looks to be very similar to Philomena in that it appeals to a certain demographic that will eat it up. Plus Pryce has also worked in the industry a long time like Banderas and has never been nominated. Yeah, we might just have to wait for the precursor nominations to know which performances are generating the most support, because it's getting to be a bit of a crap shoot right now. I don't think Egerton will happen, ultimately, so that leaves 8 contenders for 5 slots as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 14:40:19 GMT
Just wanted to point out that Glenn Close is out on the campaign trail this year for Jonathan Pryce.
I love that she is unmoved by her own terrible loss last year and is right back out there. Go Glenn!
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 2, 2019 23:33:09 GMT
The top 6 here matches Awards Watch's top 6, including the order. Driver > Phoenix > DiCaprio > De Niro > Banderas > Pryce.
And then it goes Murphy > Egerton > Bale on AW, and Egerton > Bale > Murphy here.
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