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Post by stephen on Feb 5, 2019 2:29:43 GMT
How is screenplay a long shot? because The Favourite has dominated the category for most of the season. Also it's the most nominated film there along with Roma (and they're important nominations too, BP, BD, screenplay, three acting, and editing...AMPAS really liked this film) so I don't see it coming away without any major wins, and with Colman and Weisz likely missing wins themselves, screenplay seems the likeliest place for it to score. The Favourite is also going to get a boost at BAFTA. Sure it's possible for Green Book to miraculously sweep in and take BP and screenplay but I seriously doubt that will happen. Roma has picked up too much momentum, Green Book was snubbed for director, and The Favourite still seems the favorite for screenplay. Only Ali is happening, count on it. To be fair, The Favourite's screenplay doing well with critics' prizes is meaningless when it comes to the industry. Green Book won the Globe, which boosted its profile, and it also is nominated for the WGA, where The Favourite was ineligible. If Green Book wins there, it secures some pretty crucial momentum. The Favourite is the probable choice to take BAFTA, but I think Green Book could very well win the Screenplay Oscar to consecrate a potential Best Picture victory, along with Ali (as much as I am loath to say, I think Grant's chances are winnowed substantially and barring a late surge at BAFTA, it looks like Ali's gonna go two-for-two). Roma feels very much the sort of auteur's pick that might fare decently on a preferential ballot, but Green Book has so much broad appeal and its controversy doesn't seem to have been undercut at all, especially with Bohemian Rhapsody taking more flak. And with the entirety of the Academy voting for all the winners, Green Book feels like the populist choice in Screenplay. The Favourite both needs to win BAFTA and Green Book needs to lose WGA, I think, for Davis/McNamara to regain their lost momentum. I also wouldn't be surprised if Roma comes in as a dark horse pick.
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Post by Miles Morales on Feb 11, 2019 4:15:02 GMT
I think it has become increasingly unlikely, especially after the BAFTAs. The only way Green Book has a chance to win BP is to win Original Screenplay, and it has pretty strong competition in the form of The Favourite.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Feb 11, 2019 7:18:36 GMT
No but the thought scares me shitless.
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Feb 11, 2019 9:32:17 GMT
This is the real question. Will this be a Crash year? A Driving Miss Daisy for the 21st century? The preferential ballot hurts Roma because a) it is the frontrunner, b) a number of industry voters are deliberately voting it last because of its Netflix affiliation, and c) many people just find the movie boring and cold.
Frankly, I'm sort of shocked that this board isn't getting a little more excited for such a boundary-breaking Oscar season that this could become if Roma actually ends up getting the BP win. Not only would it be the first foreign language film to ever win it (just like Cuaron was the first Latino person to win Best Director), but the Netflix aspect alone sets a major precedent for the ever-changing landscape of the cinematic medium. Not to mention that the Academy is continuing a wonderful trend of going arthouse in the face of corporate-franchise-IP-led cinema dominating the mainstream conversation. I didn't love The Shape of Water, but I adored Roma and Moonlight, and honestly I feel like the current Academy mindset is so much better than it was at the start of the decade. If the films of 2010 were up to vote now, there's no way The King's Speech would beat The Social Network. And whether you loved, hated, or were lukewarm on Roma, its technical craft is beyond dispute. And then we have its main competitor: Green Book. It's not a terrible film, and Mortensen and especially Ali are really good in it. But it's exactly the type of movie that wins Best Picture and gets forgotten a year later. Roma is here to stay. That beach shot alone is going to be taught in film classes for the next twenty years.
Anyway, for me personally this Oscars will either be magnificent or hilariously unjust. Or The Favourite will win and I'll be happy with that too.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 11, 2019 10:16:14 GMT
This is the real question. Will this be a Crash year? A Driving Miss Daisy for the 21st century? The preferential ballot hurts Roma because a) it is the frontrunner, b) a number of industry voters are deliberately voting it last because of its Netflix affiliation, and c) many people just find the movie boring and cold. I don't think they are voting it last because of its Netflix affiliation - if they vote it last they want it to lose because they find it boring or cold (wrongly imo). Driving Miss Daisy and Crash were films about race that made statements it's clear why they won and they were loved too and a lot of people predicted them - they had a path to victory on merit. In the case of Driving Miss Daisy people are rewriting history because its (close to a hack) director thinks he should have won in '89 - he shouldn't have with his non-nodded for BP or BD film in '89 - and assumes the loser position this year rather than appreciating his good luck, but I digress...... I do think Green Book can win (small chance) but I don't think it will actually win - but win or lose, the Netflix part of the equation as far as anyone can explain to me is not an issue - that's already been overcome. We just repeat it on here like it's 2015 but in 2018 everyone has a project lined up with them now, the industry is pulling for them next year too even I'd say - I'm not making that up, there's too many examples in the way filmmakers and cast and tech people talking publicly about Netflix. I just don't buy it nowadays and I think the preferential ballot even helps Roma in a way as its singularity stands out more (ie Black Panther, Blackkklansman can potentially push Green Book down).
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 12, 2019 5:27:38 GMT
This is the real question. Will this be a Crash year? A Driving Miss Daisy for the 21st century? The preferential ballot hurts Roma because a) it is the frontrunner, b) a number of industry voters are deliberately voting it last because of its Netflix affiliation, and c) many people just find the movie boring and cold. Frankly, I'm sort of shocked that this board isn't getting a little more excited for such a boundary-breaking Oscar season that this could become if Roma actually ends up getting the BP win. Not only would it be the first foreign language film to ever win it (just like Cuaron was the first Latino person to win Best Director), but the Netflix aspect alone sets a major precedent for the ever-changing landscape of the cinematic medium. Not to mention that the Academy is continuing a wonderful trend of going arthouse in the face of corporate-franchise-IP-led cinema dominating the mainstream conversation. I didn't love The Shape of Water, but I adored Roma and Moonlight, and honestly I feel like the current Academy mindset is so much better than it was at the start of the decade. If the films of 2010 were up to vote now, there's no way The King's Speech would beat The Social Network. And whether you loved, hated, or were lukewarm on Roma, its technical craft is beyond dispute. And then we have its main competitor: Green Book. It's not a terrible film, and Mortensen and especially Ali are really good in it. But it's exactly the type of movie that wins Best Picture and gets forgotten a year later. Roma is here to stay. That beach shot alone is going to be taught in film classes for the next twenty years. Anyway, for me personally this Oscars will either be magnificent or hilariously unjust. Or The Favourite will win and I'll be happy with that too. Sorry mate but Roma is shit. It's better than Green Book obviously but it's an empty, soulless movie.
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Feb 12, 2019 9:21:25 GMT
Sorry mate but Roma is shit. It's better than Green Book obviously but it's an empty, soulless movie. Totally disagree, but hopefully next year a movie you really love will be an Oscar frontrunner. If Roma wins it will join Moonlight as the two times my #1 of the year won Best Picture this decade.
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 12, 2019 12:57:50 GMT
Sorry mate but Roma is shit. It's better than Green Book obviously but it's an empty, soulless movie. Totally disagree, but hopefully next year a movie you really love will be an Oscar frontrunner. If Roma wins it will join Moonlight as the two times my #1 of the year won Best Picture this decade. You've got me wondering if my #1 for any year has ever won Best Picture
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2019 19:34:42 GMT
Totally disagree, but hopefully next year a movie you really love will be an Oscar frontrunner. If Roma wins it will join Moonlight as the two times my #1 of the year won Best Picture this decade. You've got me wondering if my #1 for any year has ever won Best Picture Has happened three times for me: No Country for Old Men, The Best Years of Our Lives, and Lawrence of Arabia.
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Post by moonman157 on Feb 13, 2019 6:01:18 GMT
You've got me wondering if my #1 for any year has ever won Best Picture Has happened three times for me: No Country for Old Men, The Best Years of Our Lives, and Lawrence of Arabia. Best Years was the first one that came to mind for me but I think I'd take Notorious or It's a Wonderful Life over it that year.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 13, 2019 12:33:46 GMT
One of the things that makes a split more likely is Cold War which has its supporters and some keys wins of its own - it's in my top 10 but I have it behind Roma (and Burning) so I don't love it like some do (it's my 6th overall) but its possible.
Green Book BP, Cuaron BD, Cold War foreign language film. I wouldn't predict it but I suppose that would be quite a wtf scenario .......to me those films and categories exist just to lose to Roma but ......for those who believe in conspiracy theories against Netflix, well that would be a nightmare for them.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Feb 13, 2019 13:47:11 GMT
Green Book BP, Cuaron BD, Cold War foreign language film. I wouldn't predict it but I suppose that would be quite a wtf scenario I could see all three of those things happening individually. I hate Green Book but it's the type of safe consensus choice that does well on a preferential ballot (hence its PGA win); Cuarón is the clear frontrunner for Director and at this point I don't think anyone else has the momentum to overtake him; and Cold War clearly has a lot of passionate supporters judging by its overperformance with Oscar and BAFTA nominations, so I can imagine some members might feel like Roma is a safe bet for a lot of big 8 love and vote for something else in Foreign Language Film to distribute the wealth. But I'm weary of predicting this type of love spreading because it just feels too neat and even. I recall 2014 when people floated the idea that the three biggest players (all triple nominees) could all go home with one Oscar each, with Iñárritu winning Best Picture, Linklater taking Director and Wes Anderson scooping up Original Screenplay. Each of those results was reasonably plausible on its own ( Birdman swept the major guilds; Boyhood won Director at the Globes and the BAFTA; Budapest won the WGA over Boyhood), but even then it felt unrealistic to predict that they'd spread out the love so perfectly. We know how that turned out. That kind of outcome makes more sense in a Cannes-type scenario, in which all the voters get to gather around, discuss the results and actively decide on the fairest, most agreeable roster of winners, but with 7,000 voters casting ballots without consulting anybody else's, things are usually far messier. I'm going with Roma for all three plus Cinematography, even if Green Book and Cold War could also totally happen.
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