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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 4, 2017 0:06:32 GMT
Hacksaw Ridge was never the frontrunner, but still managed to get a BAFTA writing nom and if we're talking other WWII films, both Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line got screenplay nominations. Considering the latter, I'm not convinced that quantity of dialogue is the deciding factor. And re: acting contenders... see Slumdog, ROTK, and Braveheart (the latter two being war films of a sort). I don't live and die by statistics... trends can be broken. As much as it seems like I'm just stanning for Nolan, I'm also just not sold (yet) on a lot of the other contenders in the mix at the moment. So you're more sold on a July WW2 film from Nolan than any other contender  Until I have more reason to be confident in the other supposed contenders, yes. Sorry, but Wonderstruck sounds like it will be hokey af and a few steps up from a hallmark movie. And as much as I love Payne, Downsizing just sounds too weird and idiosyncratic. Obviously Payne's very well respected among the Academy, but I don't think his particular sensibility has enough broad appeal to translate into winner material. I should also mention that Dunkirk's narrative structure seems to be more ambitious than what some people are maybe expecting. If anyone's anticipating a by-the-numbers war film, they should read the recent Premiere interview. There will apparently be 3 interwoven narrative threads on the beach, sea, and air over the course of the film, with mixing of different temporal strata, etc. In the past, critics have often praised Nolan for his narrative ingenuity, so this sounds like he's using his strongest tools and putting them on a large canvas once again. As I mentioned in my OP, I can also see a scenario where there is another BP/BD split. Looking at two recent examples, The Revenant and Life of Pi have a 76 and 79 on MC, respectively. Nolan's last few films hover around the mid-to-late 70s range (TDK has an 82), so if Dunkirk can manage to get a slightly higher level of reception than his last 3 (with lack of genre bias as an added factor), I don't see why Nolan can't be in the conversation for a possible director win, even if the film loses Best Picture (it's going to be a technical exhibition after all). Granted, Inarritu and Lee were previous winners, but The Revenant wasn't inherently the type of material that the Academy is typically drawn to and Life of Pi had no acting contenders. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 0:20:23 GMT
So you're more sold on a July WW2 film from Nolan than any other contender Until I have more reason to be confident in the other supposed contenders, yes. Sorry, but Wonderstruck sounds like it will be hokey af and a few steps up from a hallmark movie. And as much as I love Payne, Downsizing just sounds too weird and idiosyncratic. Obviously Payne's very well respected among the Academy, but I don't think his particular sensibility has enough broad appeal to translate into winner material. I should also mention that Dunkirk's narrative structure seems to be more ambitious than what some people are maybe expecting. If anyone's anticipating a by-the-numbers war film, they should read the recent Premiere interview. There will apparently be 3 interwoven narrative threads on the beach, sea, and air over the course of the film, with mixing of different temporal strata, etc. In the past, critics have often praised Nolan for his narrative ingenuity, so this sounds like he's using his strongest tools and putting them on a large canvas once again. As I mentioned in my OP, I can also see a scenario where there is another BP/BD split. Looking at two recent examples, The Revenant and Life of Pi have a 76 and 79 on MC, respectively. Nolan's last few films hover around the mid-to-late 70s range (TDK has an 82), so if Dunkirk can manage to get a slightly higher level of reception than his last 3 (with lack of genre bias as an added factor), I don't see why Nolan can't be in the conversation for a possible director win, even if the film loses Best Picture (it's going to be a technical exhibition after all). Granted, Inarritu and Lee were previous winners, but The Revenant wasn't inherently the type of material that the Academy is typically drawn to and Life of Pi had no acting contenders. I read Downsizing script and theres nothing weird about it at all since its basically a standard Payne film, and Wonderstruck is far from hokey "af"-- to call it a Hallmark movie is unbelievably ridiculous Please, dont claim to know a movie just from reading the wiki plot summary next time Lol, Nolan fanboys are going to have a meltdown this year if he doesnt gain traction Thankfully IMDB shut down the boards before the Dunkirk release Both Inarritu and Lee were previous director winners- Inarritu swept Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and his film won cinematography and Actor Lee benefited from Affleck's snub, his film won few techs, and he was only director to be nominated at all the precursors |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 4, 2017 1:07:57 GMT
Until I have more reason to be confident in the other supposed contenders, yes. Sorry, but Wonderstruck sounds like it will be hokey af and a few steps up from a hallmark movie. And as much as I love Payne, Downsizing just sounds too weird and idiosyncratic. Obviously Payne's very well respected among the Academy, but I don't think his particular sensibility has enough broad appeal to translate into winner material. I should also mention that Dunkirk's narrative structure seems to be more ambitious than what some people are maybe expecting. If anyone's anticipating a by-the-numbers war film, they should read the recent Premiere interview. There will apparently be 3 interwoven narrative threads on the beach, sea, and air over the course of the film, with mixing of different temporal strata, etc. In the past, critics have often praised Nolan for his narrative ingenuity, so this sounds like he's using his strongest tools and putting them on a large canvas once again. As I mentioned in my OP, I can also see a scenario where there is another BP/BD split. Looking at two recent examples, The Revenant and Life of Pi have a 76 and 79 on MC, respectively. Nolan's last few films hover around the mid-to-late 70s range (TDK has an 82), so if Dunkirk can manage to get a slightly higher level of reception than his last 3 (with lack of genre bias as an added factor), I don't see why Nolan can't be in the conversation for a possible director win, even if the film loses Best Picture (it's going to be a technical exhibition after all). Granted, Inarritu and Lee were previous winners, but The Revenant wasn't inherently the type of material that the Academy is typically drawn to and Life of Pi had no acting contenders. I read Downsizing script and theres nothing weird about it at all since its basically a standard Payne film, and Wonderstruck is far from hokey "af"-- to call it a Hallmark movie is unbelievably ridiculous Please, dont claim to know a movie just from reading the wiki plot summary next time Lol, Nolan fanboys are going to have a meltdown this year if he doesnt gain traction Thankfully IMDB shut down the boards before the Dunkirk release Both Inarritu and Lee were previous director winners- Inarritu swept Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and his film won cinematography and Actor Lee benefited from Affleck's snub, his film won few techs, and he was only director to be nominated at all the precursors Well since you seem to know more about the book, explain to me how all the stuff below does not sound contrived to shamelessly pull on heart strings. It might work well as an animated film, but it could easily fall flat in live action form. Quoted from the Wonderstruck Wikipedia synopsis, so spoilers ahead for those reading: "Ben thinks Danny must be his father and proceeds to call the number listed on the bookmark. As he is calling, a bolt of lightning hits his house, travels through the phone line and causes him to lose his remaining hearing" and later on "Rose's story skips forward 50 years, and we see her as an older woman entering a bookstore. It is there she meets Ben. It is then revealed that Rose is Ben's grandmother, and Danny was both Rose's son and Ben's father." Re: the Revenant and Life of Pi examples, I was simply going off of your own criteria for a certain level of critical reception alone and their MC scores are not that far off from the MC scores for Nolan's last few films. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 1:33:41 GMT
I read Downsizing script and theres nothing weird about it at all since its basically a standard Payne film, and Wonderstruck is far from hokey "af"-- to call it a Hallmark movie is unbelievably ridiculous Please, dont claim to know a movie just from reading the wiki plot summary next time Lol, Nolan fanboys are going to have a meltdown this year if he doesnt gain traction Thankfully IMDB shut down the boards before the Dunkirk release Both Inarritu and Lee were previous director winners- Inarritu swept Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and his film won cinematography and Actor Lee benefited from Affleck's snub, his film won few techs, and he was only director to be nominated at all the precursors Well since you seem to know more about the book, explain to me how all the stuff below does not sound contrived to shamelessly pull on heart strings. It might work well as an animated film, but it could easily fall flat in live action form. Quoted from the Wonderstruck Wikipedia synopsis, so spoilers ahead for those reading: "Ben thinks Danny must be his father and proceeds to call the number listed on the bookmark. As he is calling, a bolt of lightning hits his house, travels through the phone line and causes him to lose his remaining hearing" and later on "Rose's story skips forward 50 years, and we see her as an older woman entering a bookstore. It is there she meets Ben. It is then revealed that Rose is Ben's grandmother, and Danny was both Rose's son and Ben's father." Re: the Revenant and Life of Pi examples, I was simply going off of your own criteria for a certain level of critical reception alone and their MC scores are not that far off from the MC scores for Nolan's last few films. Well first of all, you should avoid spoilers Second of all, the book is already acclaimed, Hugo worked and follows a similar pattern, and Haynes isnt a traditional Oscar bait filmmaker who is taking liberties with the screenplay and structure to tell a more simultaneous narrative-- maybe read the book before making accusations and bold statements If Lion proved anything, its that the Academy LOVES crowdpleasing films and surely Wonderstruck will be more acclaimed than Lion was Hell, if you're going to say that, why dont you mention the embarrassing dialogue in the Dunkirk trailer: "What's that" "That's hope"  The critical acclaim is to win BP, they won in years of split: Inarritu won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and Revenant won Drama Globe, BAFTA, and Best Actor-- Revenant was ahead of Mad Max which didnt have writing or acting noms in the BP race and Miller only won LAFCA Lee was the only director who happened at every precursor and his film was the only flashy tech contender among directors-the only other director who could have won was Spielberg but he wasnt BAFTA nominated and movie only won Actor and Production This year we have tons of directors with flashy films that could emerge as stronger players during the important fall festival circuit, and Dunkirk isnt guaranteed to be the big tech contender of the year! The only wins I feel good about is sound since Blade Runner can easily win cinematography Look, I think the movie will do well and get nominations but that July release, lack of a proper festival platform, and possibly lack of critic wins has me worried it wont contend for any major wins |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 4, 2017 2:06:28 GMT
Well since you seem to know more about the book, explain to me how all the stuff below does not sound contrived to shamelessly pull on heart strings. It might work well as an animated film, but it could easily fall flat in live action form. Quoted from the Wonderstruck Wikipedia synopsis, so spoilers ahead for those reading: "Ben thinks Danny must be his father and proceeds to call the number listed on the bookmark. As he is calling, a bolt of lightning hits his house, travels through the phone line and causes him to lose his remaining hearing" and later on "Rose's story skips forward 50 years, and we see her as an older woman entering a bookstore. It is there she meets Ben. It is then revealed that Rose is Ben's grandmother, and Danny was both Rose's son and Ben's father." Re: the Revenant and Life of Pi examples, I was simply going off of your own criteria for a certain level of critical reception alone and their MC scores are not that far off from the MC scores for Nolan's last few films. Well first of all, you should avoid spoilers Second of all, the book is already acclaimed, Hugo worked and follows a similar pattern, and Haynes isnt a traditional Oscar bait filmmaker who is taking liberties with the screenplay and structure to tell a more simultaneous narrative-- maybe read the book before making accusations and bold statements If Lion proved anything, its that the Academy LOVES crowdpleasing films and surely Wonderstruck will be more acclaimed than Lion was Hell, if you're going to say that, why dont you mention the embarrassing dialogue in the Dunkirk trailer: "What's that" "That's hope" The critical acclaim is to win BP, they won in years of split: Inarritu won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, and Revenant won Drama Globe, BAFTA, and Best Actor-- Revenant was ahead of Mad Max which didnt have writing or acting noms in the BP race and Miller only won LAFCA Lee was the only director who happened at every precursor and his film was the only flashy tech contender among directors-the only other director who could have won was Spielberg but he wasnt BAFTA nominated and movie only won Actor and Production This year we have tons of directors with flashy films that could emerge as stronger players during the important fall festival circuit, and Dunkirk isnt guaranteed to be the big tech contender of the year! The only wins I feel good about is sound since Blade Runner can easily win cinematography Look, I think the movie will do well and get nominations but that July release, lack of a proper festival platform, and possibly lack of critic wins has me worried it wont contend for any major wins The book may be acclaimed, but that doesn't mean it will translate well to the screen. Yes Hugo worked, but this isn't going to be the exact same project. Even with Haynes at the helm, I'm having trouble seeing how those elements in the book can be pulled off without inducing groans (unless he drastically alters the source material or something). Obviously the Academy loves crowd-pleasing films, but this strikes me as something that could go too far in trying to elicit that kind of response. First of all, the line is "Home" not "Hope" (the latter would indeed be cringey). Second of all, one piece of dialogue is not the same thing as key plot points (I happen to think that piece of dialogue is rather poignant). Obviously, each year is unique in terms of how the landscape is shaped, so we don't yet who may or may not get snubbed and whether or not that will benefit Nolan's chances. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 3:01:00 GMT
Just because you might groan at a plot point for whatever reason, obviously that might not be the consensus But clearly the Nolan bias is strong with you-- just pray the movie goes to Cannes is all I'm going to say |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2017 3:07:31 GMT
And I can easily say that people are overestimating Bigelow's project's chances. She might get nommed, as a make up nom for ZDT, but she ain't winning her 2nd so soon, not for an un-conventional-Oscar-bait as it is (at least on paper). AGI's one was literally tailor made for BD win, and he would've won for that anyhow, and had BMan released later, it wouldn't have won. And Roma might finally get Mexico its overdue  |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Mar 4, 2017 9:47:22 GMT
Impossible to predict yet because i doubt many people even knew Moonlight existed this time last year.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 21:05:49 GMT
With all this nonsensical talk about Kathryn Bigelow pulling off a Best Picture Win, to arguments of how 'Wonderstruck' could be translated to screen to win the Award. If we're talking about Book to Film adaptations; when the Toronto Film Festival (Start of Oscar Season) comes around and if 'Call Me By Your Name' is the most buzzed coming out of it, like how it was at Berlin and Sundance. It'll be a Fucking Unstoppable Juggernaut heading into the 90th Academy Awards that's destined to Win Best Picture. Mark my Words. (And Yes, as much as Nolan is due, 'Dunkirk' won't stand a chance) |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 21:35:51 GMT
Downsizing
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