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Post by Martin Stett on Mar 1, 2017 22:18:02 GMT
I'm gonna go outside of everyone else's predictions and call for Molly's Game. Sorkin and Chastain together.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 22:39:36 GMT
I'm not going to debate with a Nolan stan but just take a quick look at the trajectory of the recent winners: 2016: Moonlight- 99 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay and Supporting Actor 2015: Spotlight- 93 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, won SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress noms 2014: Birdman- 88 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, 3 acting noms 2013: 12 Years- 96 MC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, won Supporting Actress 2012: Argo- 86 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor nom 2011: The Artist- 89 MC- won NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, won Actor, Screenplay nom 2010: The King's Speech- 88 MC- won SAG ensemble, won Actor and Screenplay 2009: Hurt Locker- 94 MC, won LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, Actor nom, won Screenplay Nolan has never been a critic favorite, the film is unlikely to receive writing and screenplay noms, and it has an early release which might skip the festival circuit Even look at the director splits: 2016: Chazelle, La La Land- 93 MC- Chazelle won Globe, DGA, BAFTA, BP runner-up, won Actress, Cinematography, Production, Score 2015: Inarritu, The Revenant- 76 MC- Inarritu won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, BP runner-up, won Actor and cinematograhy 2013: Cuaron, Gravity- 96 MC- Cuaron won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, LAFCA, BP runner-up, won techs 2012- Lee, Life of Pi- 79 MC, Affleck was snubbed, Lee was previous winner, won techs Dunkirk wont even be the de facto tech contender with Blade Runner and Wonderstruck all in contention I think that Blade Runner 2049 is a very strong possibility as well. Beloved sci-fi classic getting a tune-up by a white-hot rising director with all sorts of big names working on it, right at prime Oscar season? Villeneuve could get afterglow love. Yeah, I think Blade Runner can make a play at some noms-- Villenuve is in the club now and it could be a prestigious resurrection of the franchise I dont think it'll win anything major like directing but cinematography and techs should be good at the very least
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 1, 2017 23:00:17 GMT
I'm gonna go outside of everyone else's predictions and call for Molly's Game. Sorkin and Chastain together. I almost predicted this too. It's one of my most anticipated of the year. I really hope it delivers.
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2017 23:09:29 GMT
I think that Blade Runner 2049 is a very strong possibility as well. Beloved sci-fi classic getting a tune-up by a white-hot rising director with all sorts of big names working on it, right at prime Oscar season? Villeneuve could get afterglow love. Yeah, I think Blade Runner can make a play at some noms-- Villenuve is in the club now and it could be a prestigious resurrection of the franchise I dont think it'll win anything major like directing but cinematography and techs should be good at the very least Wouldn't it be something if Deakins gets the Kevin O'Connell treatment? They've been leaning towards genre fare of late in that category, and if it hits big, I can see him being the frontrunner. At the very least, he and Hoytema look like solid bets for the category right now.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Mar 1, 2017 23:13:48 GMT
Wonderstruck
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 23:32:07 GMT
Yeah, I think Blade Runner can make a play at some noms-- Villenuve is in the club now and it could be a prestigious resurrection of the franchise I dont think it'll win anything major like directing but cinematography and techs should be good at the very least Wouldn't it be something if Deakins gets the Kevin O'Connell treatment? They've been leaning towards genre fare of late in that category, and if it hits big, I can see him being the frontrunner. At the very least, he and Hoytema look like solid bets for the category right now. i think he'll absolutely be in the mix alongside Hoytema and Lachman The thing in Deakins favor for the first time in a while is the fact that Blade Runner could be a huge tech contender and win production, VFX, and sound as well-- it'll surely be in the conversation
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2017 23:35:28 GMT
Wouldn't it be something if Deakins gets the Kevin O'Connell treatment? They've been leaning towards genre fare of late in that category, and if it hits big, I can see him being the frontrunner. At the very least, he and Hoytema look like solid bets for the category right now. i think he'll absolutely be in the mix alongside Hoytema and Lachman The thing in Deakins favor for the first time in a while is the fact that Blade Runner could be a huge tech contender and win production, VFX, and sound as well-- it'll surely be in the conversation Not just that, but it could be an above-the-line contender as well. The studio seems to have faith in it, bumping it to a prime Oscar season slot. I don't know if it's got the juice to get an acting nomination (I wonder if they'll give Ford enough material to possibly warrant some supporting actor love). I'm not saying it will do that well, certainly, but I think it would have to be a colossal disappointment not to at least net nominations. Certainly, it seems everyone involved is passionate about it, and I like to think that'll crank out some returns in the end.
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Post by taranofprydain on Mar 1, 2017 23:38:07 GMT
I'm not sure. Time will tell when the reviews come in.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2017 5:55:45 GMT
I'm gunna stan for PTA, Haynes and Villeneuve whole season. Just watch. Just watch stephen go nuts come Oscar 2017
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 2, 2017 7:43:41 GMT
Its reviews definitely need to be better than Interstellar's, but I'm not sure it quite has to be the "best thing Nolan's ever made" to win. I think Dunkirk is a project that is different enough from Nolan's previous work to perhaps gain respect from critics and the Academy, who might applaud him for going outside of his wheelhouse. Nolan has never been a critic favorite, the film is unlikely to receive writing and screenplay noms, and it has an early release which might skip the festival circuit Dunkirk wont even be the de facto tech contender with Blade Runner and Wonderstruck all in contention Like I said, this seems to be a very different project for Nolan and I think this could be the film where the critics' reception might push him over the edge. The screenplay is apparently much more pared down than usual on the dialogue front. As much I'd like to see Blade Runner be recognized, I'm having trouble seeing it making that big of a showing since it's a sequel to a beloved sci-fi classic, despite Villeneuve being involved.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2017 7:48:28 GMT
Nolan has never been a critic favorite, the film is unlikely to receive writing and screenplay noms, and it has an early release which might skip the festival circuit Dunkirk wont even be the de facto tech contender with Blade Runner and Wonderstruck all in contention Like I said, this seems to be a very different project for Nolan and I think this could be the film where the critics' reception might push him over the edge. The screenplay is apparently much more pared down than usual on the dialogue front. As much I'd like to see Blade Runner be recognized, I'm having trouble seeing it making that big of a showing since it's a sequel to a beloved sci-fi classic, despite Villeneuve being involved. So, that means the screenplay probably wont be in play, and no actor contender as well-- thats 2 big strikes against it This is his first foray into Oscar bait and I dont see critical acclaim nearing or matching the previous BP contenders
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 2, 2017 8:17:02 GMT
Like I said, this seems to be a very different project for Nolan and I think this could be the film where the critics' reception might push him over the edge. The screenplay is apparently much more pared down than usual on the dialogue front. As much I'd like to see Blade Runner be recognized, I'm having trouble seeing it making that big of a showing since it's a sequel to a beloved sci-fi classic, despite Villeneuve being involved. So, that means the screenplay probably wont be in play, and no actor contender as well-- thats 2 big strikes against it This is his first foray into Oscar bait and I dont see critical acclaim nearing or matching the previous BP contenders He's got two writing nominations... if the movie gets critical acclaim and stays in the conversation, I'm not sure what makes a screenplay nod out of reach. I could see Rylance possibly getting some attention since he's still in people's minds from winning recently, though an acting contender isn't necessary (though it certainly helps).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2017 8:42:22 GMT
So, that means the screenplay probably wont be in play, and no actor contender as well-- thats 2 big strikes against it This is his first foray into Oscar bait and I dont see critical acclaim nearing or matching the previous BP contenders He's got two writing nominations... if the movie gets critical acclaim and stays in the conversation, I'm not sure what makes a screenplay nod out of reach. I could see Rylance possibly getting some attention since he's still in people's minds from winning recently, though an acting contender isn't necessary (though it certainly helps). War films dont always translate into writing noms-- just look at Hacksaw Ridge Yes, he has 2 but those 2 were high-concept films-- this seems to be decidedly more intimate with very little dialogue He received Globe and BAFTA noms for Inception's screenplay and even won WGA, while he won LAFCA for Memento's writing and tied for NYFCC 2nd place with another Globe noms Original screenplay already looks very stacked: Downsizing- Payne Detroit- Boal Darkest Hour- McCarten (1 writing nom) Inner City- Gilroy (1 writing nom) The Greatest Showman- Bill Condon(1 writing win, 1 additional nom), Jenny Bicks, Michael Arndt (1 writing win, 1 additional nom) Wonder Wheel- Allen With possibilities for: Untitled AA Milne- Franl Cottrell (1 BAFTA nom), Simon Vaughn Phantom Thread- Paul Thomas Anderson (4 writing noms) The Current War- Michael Mitnick Brad's Status- Mike White Suburbicon- Clooney (2 writing noms), Heslov (2 writing noms), Coen Brothers (2 writing wins, 4 additional writing noms) Untitled Noah Baumbach- Baumbach (1 writing nom) Lady Bird- Greta Gerwig Mother- Aronofsky (1 directing nom) Shape of Water- del Toro (1 writing nom), Vanessa Taylor, Daniel Kraus Coco- Adrian Molina And of course receiving an actor nom is necessary Did you not pay attention to any of the stats
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Mar 2, 2017 15:22:43 GMT
Fleshlight...the new biopic about the creator of the infamous sex toy.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 2, 2017 19:57:18 GMT
He's got two writing nominations... if the movie gets critical acclaim and stays in the conversation, I'm not sure what makes a screenplay nod out of reach. I could see Rylance possibly getting some attention since he's still in people's minds from winning recently, though an acting contender isn't necessary (though it certainly helps). War films dont always translate into writing noms-- just look at Hacksaw Ridge Yes, he has 2 but those 2 were high-concept films-- this seems to be decidedly more intimate with very little dialogue And of course receiving an actor nom is necessary Did you not pay attention to any of the stats Hacksaw Ridge was never the frontrunner, but still managed to get a BAFTA writing nom and if we're talking other WWII films, both Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line got screenplay nominations. Considering the latter, I'm not convinced that quantity of dialogue is the deciding factor. And re: acting contenders... see Slumdog, ROTK, and Braveheart (the latter two being war films of a sort). I don't live and die by statistics... trends can be broken. As much as it seems like I'm just stanning for Nolan, I'm also just not sold (yet) on a lot of the other contenders in the mix at the moment.
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Post by DanQuixote on Mar 2, 2017 20:10:09 GMT
Untitled Detroit Riots Project.
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Post by Viced on Mar 2, 2017 20:15:15 GMT
Downsizing
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Mar 2, 2017 20:52:59 GMT
Right now I'd say Bigelow's project gets pushed back to October or November and wins.
Definitely not feeling Dunkirk.
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Post by quetee on Mar 2, 2017 21:22:01 GMT
that's what I'm picking right now.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2017 7:31:40 GMT
War films dont always translate into writing noms-- just look at Hacksaw Ridge Yes, he has 2 but those 2 were high-concept films-- this seems to be decidedly more intimate with very little dialogue And of course receiving an actor nom is necessary Did you not pay attention to any of the stats Hacksaw Ridge was never the frontrunner, but still managed to get a BAFTA writing nom and if we're talking other WWII films, both Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line got screenplay nominations. Considering the latter, I'm not convinced that quantity of dialogue is the deciding factor. And re: acting contenders... see Slumdog, ROTK, and Braveheart (the latter two being war films of a sort). I don't live and die by statistics... trends can be broken. As much as it seems like I'm just stanning for Nolan, I'm also just not sold (yet) on a lot of the other contenders in the mix at the moment. So you're more sold on a July WW2 film from Nolan than any other contender Slumdog won SAG ensemble Bravehart is famously the last BP winner without an ensemble nom (1st year SAG started ensemble) Of course stats can break but to be a BP winner, you need absolute momentum and support to win and I dont see that happening with Dunkirk
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Mar 3, 2017 13:42:20 GMT
Dunkirk. Academy never passes up on their beloved war movies. Only reason they passed on American Sniper and Hacksaw was because they knew they'd receive tons of backlash.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2017 13:59:28 GMT
The PTA movie... does that have a name yet?
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Post by Martin Stett on Mar 3, 2017 15:40:43 GMT
Dunkirk. Academy never passes up on their beloved war movies. Only reason they passed on American Sniper and Hacksaw was because they knew they'd receive tons of backlash. They passed on giving wins to Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line and Hacksaw Ridge... when was the last American History war movie to win the Oscar? Patton? I really don't know. Is it Patton? Edit: No, The Hurt Locker. Which was pretty atypical and not WW2, though. I just don't see Nolan of all people getting a BP win for what will likely be a PG-13 war film that looks fairly by-the-numbers on paper.
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Post by quetee on Mar 3, 2017 17:34:30 GMT
I know someone who saw dunkirk. He said it was amazing but didn't declare it a bp winner.
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Post by morton on Mar 3, 2017 18:22:57 GMT
that's what I'm picking right now. Yes, I think this is what I will go with too if someone starts a Best Picture poll this month. Payne has been pretty consistent with his films being recognized in major categories by AMPAS, and the topic does sound timely. I could see it keeping with the low nomination win total that the last few films have gotten too. So Best Original Screenplay, maybe Best Supporting Actress, and maybe Best Director along with Picture; although I could see there being a split something that was "flashier". Also I think it would be just like AMPAS that the first "sci-fi/fantasy" film to win would be directed by Alexander Payne of all people.
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