Savager
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Post by Savager on Mar 1, 2017 4:21:38 GMT
Nothing is really standing out to me right now as an obvious "winner', but I think I'm gonna go with Kathryn Bigelow's Untitled Detroit Project for right now.
Honestly though, I think something unexpected will come out during the fall festivals and become the front-runner.
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2017 5:08:25 GMT
Dunkirk feels right for a preliminary prediction now. If it does well at the box office (as I expect) and with the critics (as I hope), its pedigree combined with Nolan's stature could make it a perfect storm situation.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Mar 1, 2017 5:08:43 GMT
Is there another movie coming out that ends in -light? That.
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2017 5:14:19 GMT
Is there another movie coming out that ends in -light? That. *PTA hurriedly looks in his dictionary for a title*
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Post by mattfincher on Mar 1, 2017 5:19:01 GMT
Is there even a point in this anymore after a movie like fucking Moonlight won? Seems like a fool's errand at this point.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 1, 2017 5:44:53 GMT
Dunkirk feels right for a preliminary prediction now. If it does well at the box office (as I expect) and with the critics (as I hope), its pedigree combined with Nolan's stature could make it a perfect storm situation. I'm predicting Dunkirk at the moment as well but was just wondering if you think its release date will affect its chances at all?
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 1, 2017 6:34:34 GMT
Cautiously gonna go with Dunkirk at the moment, though I can see a scenario where we get yet another BP/BD split and Nolan wins director but another film wins picture. It certainly fits the bill at least as a director win because of its technical prospects (considering the Academy's liking for showy, technical exhibitions).
Bigelow's Detroit project seems like it could be a threat, but honestly nothing else really stands out as a potential winner. Not really sold on Wonderstruck or Downsizing being fully embraced.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 6:54:02 GMT
Wonderstruck, with Downsizing for alternate
Dunkirk needs to be Nolan's best film by a country mile to compensate for July release and lack of a festival bow, and I dont think critics will be so welcoming to his first encounter with Oscar bait
Detroit is a buzzy subject and Bigelow has Annapurna backing, but it has an August release and could be polarizing
But after this year, who the hell really knows-- watch Call Me By Your Name, Flag Last Flying, or Lean on Pete breakout
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Mar 1, 2017 7:54:09 GMT
Wonderstruck seems like a good choice to me too.
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morton
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Post by morton on Mar 1, 2017 9:11:26 GMT
What films are Plan B producing this year?
I really have no clue though. PTA seems due for a big win, but I thought that with The Master and Inherent Vice. Mmm, Kathryn Bigelow's film sounds really interesting probably baity and important, but even with Moonlight winning and new membership, I don't know if they're progressive enough for Bigelow to win Best Picture twice.
I think it might be something that's not on the radar right now. Maybe if Adam McKay gets his Dick Cheney movie done this year. (I'm lighting candles that he casts Michael Keaton as Dick Cheney.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 9:44:56 GMT
Is there another movie coming out that ends in -light? That. *PTA hurriedly looks in his dictionary for a title* PTA's new movie's final title .....*drumroll*........ DRESS LIGHT !!!
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Post by tastytomatoes on Mar 1, 2017 12:39:37 GMT
What films are Plan B producing this year? Their relation with Oscar bp started with The Departed The Departed (2006) The Tree of Life (2011) 12 Years a Slave (2013) Selma (2014) The Big Short (2015) Moonlight (2016) This year, it's either these two or none Okja (2017) War Machine (2017)
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Post by tastytomatoes on Mar 1, 2017 13:59:39 GMT
In fact, the teaser trailer for War Machine (Plan B) just dropped
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Post by jimmalone on Mar 1, 2017 14:11:28 GMT
At this point it's like a shot in the blue. Impossible to guess it right. So far Nolan wasn't exactly embraced by the Academy (of course some of his movies were not exactly up to the taste of AMPAS), so I doubt it will be Dunkirk as many seem to believe.
Kathryn Bigelow's project seems interesting. Or maybe Darren Aronofsky hits it right with Mother this time?
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Mar 1, 2017 14:27:58 GMT
Dunkirk is not happening
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Post by tastytomatoes on Mar 1, 2017 15:35:39 GMT
Have you watched the prologue before Rogue One?
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Mar 1, 2017 16:08:17 GMT
Have you watched the prologue before Rogue One? I did.It was amazing but Nolan's films have been increasingly criticized with each passing films
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 18:16:38 GMT
PTA's Dress Light
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Mar 1, 2017 18:26:25 GMT
Dunkirk needs to be Nolan's best film by a country mile to compensate for July release and lack of a festival bow, and I dont think critics will be so welcoming to his first encounter with Oscar bait. Its reviews definitely need to be better than Interstellar's, but I'm not sure it quite has to be the "best thing Nolan's ever made" to win. I think Dunkirk is a project that is different enough from Nolan's previous work to perhaps gain respect from critics and the Academy, who might applaud him for going outside of his wheelhouse.
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Post by phenix714 on Mar 1, 2017 18:41:29 GMT
It seems to have become a trend now that the movie that is the frontrunner ends up losing at the last minute due to backlash. So, I'm gonna predict whatever the runner up is.
Regarding Dunkirk, have you guys seen the trailer ? It looks generic as hell. If Nolan somehow wins director, that would be a huge step down from Chazelle/Jenkins.
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Post by pizzaroll on Mar 1, 2017 20:45:10 GMT
I know gonna go with Bigelow's Detroit film for now as I think Dunkirk's release date will Hurt its chances at winning.
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Post by quetee on Mar 1, 2017 21:33:51 GMT
What films are Plan B producing this year? Their relation with Oscar bp started with The Departed The Departed (2006) The Tree of Life (2011) 12 Years a Slave (2013) Selma (2014) The Big Short (2015) Moonlight (2016) This year, it's either these two or none Okja (2017) War Machine (2017) they also have lost city of z. On the tv side, they have feud.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Mar 1, 2017 21:45:51 GMT
Not sure Dunkirk will win. Its nomination will be it's reward really.
Nothing else is sticking out, though, so I guess Bigelow's untitled Detroit's Riot Movie, I dunna.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2017 22:03:37 GMT
Dunkirk needs to be Nolan's best film by a country mile to compensate for July release and lack of a festival bow, and I dont think critics will be so welcoming to his first encounter with Oscar bait. Its reviews definitely need to be better than Interstellar's, but I'm not sure it quite has to be the "best thing Nolan's ever made" to win. I think Dunkirk is a project that is different enough from Nolan's previous work to perhaps gain respect from critics and the Academy, who might applaud him for going outside of his wheelhouse. I'm not going to debate with a Nolan stan but just take a quick look at the trajectory of the recent winners: 2016: Moonlight- 99 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay and Supporting Actor 2015: Spotlight- 93 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, won SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress noms 2014: Birdman- 88 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, 3 acting noms 2013: 12 Years- 96 MC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, won Supporting Actress 2012: Argo- 86 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor nom 2011: The Artist- 89 MC- won NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, won Actor, Screenplay nom 2010: The King's Speech- 88 MC- won SAG ensemble, won Actor and Screenplay 2009: Hurt Locker- 94 MC, won LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, Actor nom, won Screenplay Nolan has never been a critic favorite, the film is unlikely to receive writing and screenplay noms, and it has an early release which might skip the festival circuit Even look at the director splits: 2016: Chazelle, La La Land- 93 MC- Chazelle won Globe, DGA, BAFTA, BP runner-up, won Actress, Cinematography, Production, Score 2015: Inarritu, The Revenant- 76 MC- Inarritu won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, BP runner-up, won Actor and cinematograhy 2013: Cuaron, Gravity- 96 MC- Cuaron won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, LAFCA, BP runner-up, won techs 2012- Lee, Life of Pi- 79 MC, Affleck was snubbed, Lee was previous winner, won techs Dunkirk wont even be the de facto tech contender with Blade Runner and Wonderstruck all in contention
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Post by stephen on Mar 1, 2017 22:05:47 GMT
Its reviews definitely need to be better than Interstellar's, but I'm not sure it quite has to be the "best thing Nolan's ever made" to win. I think Dunkirk is a project that is different enough from Nolan's previous work to perhaps gain respect from critics and the Academy, who might applaud him for going outside of his wheelhouse. I'm not going to debate with a Nolan stan but just take a quick look at the trajectory of the recent winners: 2016: Moonlight- 99 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay and Supporting Actor 2015: Spotlight- 93 MC, won LAFCA and NSFC, won SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress noms 2014: Birdman- 88 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, 3 acting noms 2013: 12 Years- 96 MC, SAG ensemble nom, won Screenplay, won Supporting Actress 2012: Argo- 86 MC, won SAG ensemble, won Screenplay, Supporting Actor nom 2011: The Artist- 89 MC- won NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, won Actor, Screenplay nom 2010: The King's Speech- 88 MC- won SAG ensemble, won Actor and Screenplay 2009: Hurt Locker- 94 MC, won LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, SAG ensemble nom, Actor nom, won Screenplay Nolan has never been a critic favorite, the film is unlikely to receive writing and screenplay noms, and it has an early release which might skip the festival circuit Even look at the director splits: 2016: Chazelle, La La Land- 93 MC- Chazelle won Globe, DGA, BAFTA, BP runner-up, won Actress, Cinematography, Production, Score 2015: Inarritu, The Revenant- 76 MC- Inarritu won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, BP runner-up, won Actor and cinematograhy 2013: Cuaron, Gravity- 96 MC- Cuaron won Globe, BAFTA, DGA, LAFCA, BP runner-up, won techs 2012- Lee, Life of Pi- 79 MC, Affleck was snubbed, Lee was previous winner, won techs Dunkirk wont even be the de facto tech contender with Blade Runner and Wonderstruck all in contention I think that Blade Runner 2049 is a very strong possibility as well. Beloved sci-fi classic getting a tune-up by a white-hot rising director with all sorts of big names working on it, right at prime Oscar season? Villeneuve could get afterglow love.
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