JANUARY POLL: Which film will win best picture?

Blackkklansman. It’s killing at the guilds, it’s the most “woke” of the major contenders and it’s pretty much backlash proof.

Either that or they will go with A Star is Born because the Academy are basic bitches.

Lately I've been thinking about whether or not it's possible that ASIB just wins Best Song. That seems so strange though, but it's not winning screenplay, might not even be nominated there. I doubt it's winning Director since Cuaron is such a heavy favorite, and then behind him, Lee could surprise if his narrative kicks into gear.

I think Best Actor goes to Rami Malek now even though until the Globe and SAG nominations that Cooper was still the favorite, but there's no denying that people love Bohemian Rhapsody, and they love Malek along with it. 

There's Best Actress, but I keep wavering between the top 3. I think Colman can win with just the Comedy/Musical Globe and BAFTA. Close could still prevail at SAG; although, right now I would consider her to be a distant third place. A lot can happen though in phase II of the voting. There could be backlash to Gaga and ASIB if it wins too much. Right now things are okay, but there's still the Globes and Critics Choice. It did miss a few noms at the Globes, but if Gaga and Cooper go on stage two or three times each, that could a backlash. Certainly not as big as the one that La La Land faced, but with Best Actress potentially being a very close race, something like that might be the difference between Gaga winning versus enough voters going with Colman or Close to propel them to a win instead. 

So that leaves Best Picture, and I agree that it has a lot going for it. It's directed by an actor, and the Oscars tend to love that when an actor does well in directing. Cooper is also well liked in the industry. It made a lot of money. It could still win Best Actor and/or Best Actress. ASIB is about the industry like The Artist and Birdman. 

Like I've wrote before in this thread though, while I found ASIB to be very entertaining, I don't know if it really says a lot compared to the other possible Best Picture nominees. This year the industry seems to be going more populist, but even then they could go with Black Panther which was populist and would create more of a statement. Or they could go with BlacKkKlansman which might not be a populist film, but it's not exactly something like Roma either that has Netflix behind it, in black and white, and in a foreign language. It made a decent money for a smaller film, and in a year where a lot of Oscar bait has bombed or disappointed that's got to be a plus for it. 

It seems so weird though, but at the same time, I know that when ASIB first came out, some doubted that the fourth remake of ASIB would win Best Picture and Best Actress if the other versions couldn't. So maybe there was truth in that after all. 

Maybe, but I don't think Netflix would give us any receipts either way. It's just not in their interest to put out that kind of data. Releasing Bird Box's viewership numbers plays into their endgame because it shows the strength in their model and the success of their release strategy, but that's an exception and not the rule. You don't see them broadcasting that information in any other case, even when the films/series in question are clear word-of-mouth hits. Roma's theatrical release is successful, but not so overwhelmingly fantastic that they would go out of their way and change their approach. I don't believe awards voters are paying enough attention to Roma's box-office trajectory for that to matter.

To be honest with you, though, I'm just speculating here. While I do think Roma can win, having now seen it myself, I don't think it will, mostly because on top of everything else that's already been said multiple times to be working against it (foreign language, Netflix, unknown cast), it's also very slow paced (especially the first third) and getting a lot of negative reactions from people who gave it a chance after seeing so much overwhelming praise for it only to wind up unimpressed and bored. I can definitely see a large contingent of Academy voters struggling to connect with it beyond simply admiring the techs and turning it off halfway through. I'd absolutely love it if it won, but for now I went with BlacKkKlansman for this poll. Might switch depending on how Sunday night goes.

Hmm, The Favourite? 

I know I'm letting my pessimism drive my thinking right now, but I think I'm going to predict this now too. At least it will give me enough time to prepare for it, if it does happen. More importantly, with my jinxing power perhaps if I start predicting it, I'll actually stop it from winning. 

I don't really think that there's going to be enough backlash to take it down. Stories have been coming out for a couple of months now (Mortensen saying that people don't say the n-word anymore, Shirley's family still trying to say that the filmmakers are lying, etc.), and it still keeps chugging on. I think it's just backlash proof even moreso than Bohemian Rhapsody because the general public probably isn't aware of what a green book was or who Tony Vallelonga or Don Shirley are. 

Harry Belafonte also spoke up about it and how he thought it was an accurate representation of Don Shirley, when he should be promoting BlacKkKlansman,  . John Singleton also praised in Variety, so the campaign team behind it has done an excellent job so far. 

Also for the most part, even though I didn't care for it, it's the kind of film that most voters can feel good about. It might not get a lot of #1s, but I could see it getting many #2s and #3s. 

I already thought over the course of the past years that they were suddenly tough to predict compared to the 2000s and early 2010s. I mean between 2006 and 2014 the closest duel we got was probably Birdman vs. Boyhood. But this year takes the cake.

Well, at least for now. Maybe it's really easier than we all thought and we were just full of prejudices and it will be Roma in the end. Yes, it will probably lack an acting nomination, but it shows up on most places where it needs to be (DGA, PGA, WGA). Cuaron seems like a clear front runner for director. It will likely get the win for cinematography and should be able to get the two vital nods in Writing and Editing. So maybe this will be the view in hindsight.

But also the last years have shown that those stats don't mean as much as they used to be. And for now I still think that other films, who are still in contention seem more fitting to what the Academy members would vote for.

Right now I think it's down to
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman


But if this poll is open until the end of January it would be unwise not wait for the oscar nominations.

Roma

I'm going with Blackkklansman right now. It's hitting everything. Only A Star is Born has more guild support.

It probably wins SAG. Then takes BP and screenplay at the Oscars a la Spotlight.

A Star is Born is close but I have trouble seeing it win with just song. If Cooper wins SAG, I could see it.

Alright, I'm casting my vote here: Roma, for the second (or third?) straight month. It still has a number of obstacles in its way, but they're all trends/rules that feel bound to be broken. The film is clearly a juggernaut that's becoming an exception to so many norms, and Netflix is clearly upping their game for this. I was made a bit hesitant by the criticism this started getting upon its wide/online release, but that seems to have died down a great deal since then, and was mostly the product of a vocal minority. The fact that it's holding on to an 83% audience score on RT is impressive and shows that this has more wide appeal than would be expected from a film of its stature. I can't recall the last time a film of its kind made waves (pun 100% intended) so much, and I think it's more accessible than we've given it credit for, certainly having an appeal to the audiences who like WatchMojo "Top 10 Continuous Long Takes" and such. As slow-going as it may be by traditional standards, it certainly has a power to it that is sticking with much of its audience, nearly all of whom are going to be additionally impressed with the level of craft. Ultimately, it's going to prove to be far less divisive than most of its fellow nominees, and will benefit a great deal from preferential balloting. It's hard to imagine that it's a film that won't be featured on many top fives -- The Favourite, A Star is Born, Green Book, etc. certainly will. 

Perhaps more importantly: Disregarding that a relatively few people have gripes with its filmmaking, there aren't any ulterior factors, as of yet, to incite backlash, which is always key, but seems to be particularly important this season. Not to mention, there is a clear political statement to selecting the film, which is something that's always been a factor with the Academy, but is now more than ever in the Trump era. And nothing seems that it could make a bolder statement in the current climate than selecting a Spanish-language film from Mexico as the first ever foreign language Best Picture winner. In other words: the longer that that idiot keeps our government shutdown to get his goddamn wall built, the better Roma's chances are. I'm sure a lot of Academy voters are already keeling with anticipation for the chance to pat themselves on the back for championing a film that "Donald Trump doesn't want in our country." In addition to the political factors, I also think this does the best with key precursors. I'm currently thinking it takes DGA, Critics' Choice, and PGA (most vulnerable at that last one), and at this point has a great shot at WGA as well, especially if the Green Book backlash continues to escalate. I think it'll definitely lose BAFTA to The Favourite, but the Best Film winner at BAFTA hasn't gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars four years running -- and while I'm certainly not one who finds stats to be the end all be all, I certainly think that trends need to be kept in mind. 

After Roma, I do think A Star is Born has the second best shot. Basically all season I've counted it out because I assumed it would be the early frontrunner, Golden Globe-sweeper that goes on to be hurt by severe backlash in the month and a half leading up to the Oscars, and ultimately loses out to an underdog. Obviously, that's not the narrative that's forming now. After some bizarre Golden Globe results, it's clear that the majority of the incoming backlash will be focused on the likes of Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, while A Star is Born will actually benefit a great deal from its fans thinking it's gone under-recognized. With that in its favor, I think it'll be taking SAG Ensemble, will be a threat with bodies such as BFCA and PGA, and will generally start performing better than it has been. Ultimately, it still does feel a bit too old school & traditionalist for the "new" Academy's tastes, and its early release date has made it lose passion in favor of shinier new things like Roma and The Favourite. Still, I think it has the best shot at getting the ball rolling with newfound momentum, which could very well lead to a Best Picture victory.

Then I think BlacKkKlansman currently comes in at third -- it's hit every major precursor, has virtually no backlash against it (other than stuff like Boots Riley speaking out about some of its inaccuracy and glossing over of certain information, but this has probably largely been forgotten/forgiven and is extremely tame in comparison to some of the shit that other films have to deal with), is a widely accessible film, has many factors that appeal to the Academy's usual taste, certainly makes a political statement of its own, and should also benefit a great deal from preferential balloting as it's really not divisive at all. The big thing working to its disadvantage at this point is that there doesn't really seem to be any passion for it. Everybody likes it, but nobody seems to love it. Recently, though, we've seen The Shape of Water and Spotlight both come out on top despite more or less having the same vibe surrounding it. So, we probably shouldn't count out BlacKkKlansman just because of that. However, it'll need to start getting some wins to convince me it's a real threat for the big prize. It should take WGA easily as the clear Adapted Screenplay frontrunner, but without something like a PGA win (or perhaps SAG Ensemble), it'll remain an underdog candidate. Third feels about right for it at the moment. 

And though I was predicting it for quite some time, basically for the few months following Venice, I'm more or less ruling out The Favourite. I'd place it at fourth right now -- but, really, I'd say it's down to the three I've already mentioned. The Favourite seemed like the perfect choice on-paper, of striking that specific balance between being outlandish & different and accessible & relevant that has been key for, I'd say, three of the last four Best Picture winners. However, when I watched the film for myself (and I did love it sans the ending), I really got the sense that it's still too Lanthimos-y for most crowds, and I think that's been reflected by the public response to it. While its RT audience score has just recently (must've been in the past couple days) raised into the positive, it was in the negative for quite awhile following its release, and is still only hanging on to a meager 61%. And, sure, I'll agree that is a relatively arbitrary figure to take into account, I still think it's significant in that I doubt the perceptions of Academy members will be too far off. It's a movie that obviously has its passionate fanbase, but I think it'll be too off-putting to too many people. As I've said, it's something that I think will be left out of the top five on a lot of ballots, even if it gets many a number-one placement. There's that, and the fact that it's underwhelmed at precursors. It missed the SAG Ensemble nod it seemed to have in the bag, will likely be hurt at least somewhat by the WGA ineligibility, and was also shut-out of DGA. Not an encouraging sign for a film that's going to try to build momentum preceding the big night. I don't think it'll be the big winner anywhere other than BAFTA, and that doesn't feel like nearly enough to push it all the way. But, I guess I shouldn't say I'm ruling it out entirely -- I'm not. But it'll have a huge uphill climb to overcome.

tl;dr: Roma is still the frontrunner with A Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman rounding out the top trio with the best shot, while The Favourite remains as a potential spoiler candidate. Doubt it'd be anything other than one of those four. The backlash against Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody are gonna be far too severe, Vice is performing healthily but no one likes it *that* much, and Black Panther is still in the mix but is proving itself to not quite be as much of a major player as was anticipated. 

Anyway, I'm sure I'll be back to this thread in a week to change my vote entirely. 

As it stands Roma has to be the front runner. The two acting nominations certainly show that also this aspect of the movie, which isn't even it's strongest part is beloved. It's the clear front runner for directing, which is the second most important category and naturally because of it's importance for a movie overlaps strongly with Best Picture.

However there is that lack of an editing nom. There's a reason most of the Best Picture winners were nominated in that category. Editing is a very important aspect of films and in many good films you'll just automatically, even subconsciously notice that the film is also well edited, even if you can't point your finger on it. When you fill out your ballot it's also a category, where at one hand will remember films that have a showy editing, but also often fill in just your favorite films, because they stand out to you overall and a small reason therefore might have been the editing.
And that's the small point that gives me a bit of thought about this. I would assume that if Roma is generally loved that much it would also have made the editing category. Especially when Green Book, a movie which I haven't seen, but which by general consensus doesn't have a memorable editing, DID garner that nom. However I have to state that's also just my theory and nothing I know.
But I also think that many voters might have thought that there wasn't a lot of editing and therefore didn't go for it. The lack of an editing nom is not a huge issue for me, but worthy to note.

I still don't know how voters will fill to award a Netflix movie though. I don't think it being Black and White or being a foreign film is a hindrance, but if I work in the film industry and I'm worried about the future of cinema, then I can imagine, that many people would strategically vote for another movie. And there are two movies that are generally liked pretty much.

Those are Green Book and BlacKkKlansman and I think they could upset Roma.
They don't have as passionate voters as Roma, but might have a wider spectrum of voters that like them. A bonus for BlacKkKlansman is surely that it hit all the important categories. Director, Screenplay, Editing as well as the guilds. But it never actually won anything and that lack of passion could work against BlacKkKlansman a bit, while Green Book won the PGA and also garnered a few critics awards. So I think it is probably more beloved. Green Book will garner a lot of votes and I guess it is more accessible than Roma, so it wouldn't surprise me if this turns out as the winner.

Both are probably going to win screenplay in their respective categories and screenplay is next to directing the most important aspect of a movie, cause in the end films are about telling stories. However this is also a category where it's just important to be nominated and Roma got this nom, despite not having an outstanding screenplay. In fact most Best Picture winners, who lost that category either didn't have an outstanding screenplay itsself, but other strengths and/or lost to very strong competition (Artist to Midnight in Paris, Million Dollar Baby to Sideways for example). This could be very well the case again with Roma, while also a chance to reward Green Book and BlacKkKlansman.

A sidenote with two stats that are mostly underused, but usually imply how much a film is liked:
In over a decade the Best Picture winner always hold a Metacritic score in at least the high 80s. Now Roma has 96 and BlacKkKlansman is not far off with an 83. Green Book has just 70, so this should work against it's favour. But in 2005 Crash, another divisive film that dealt with racism, also had just a rating of 69. So I'm not sure about this one.

Also another stat I usually like as an indicator is that the Best Picture winner nearly always is included in the NBR top 10 films with only Lord of the Rings and The Shape of Water missing there within the last 15 years. Which makes sense, because you would expect that widely beloved films make a Top 10 list and it also certainly indicates there's an overlap in taste.
This year Roma and Green Book (which won it, which actually would work against it though, cause the winners are rarely the same) made this list with BlacKkKlansman missing.

Y'all, we didn't do a feb poll on what we think will win best picture.