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Post by tastytomatoes on Jan 2, 2019 20:02:38 GMT
Down to six, First Man gone, let's discuss.
I'm gonna add back the details here later.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 2, 2019 20:03:48 GMT
sticking with The Favourite **fingers crossed**
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 2, 2019 20:05:54 GMT
A Star is Born
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Post by stephen on Jan 2, 2019 20:06:41 GMT
It's hard to say, really. I think BlacKkKlansman has done a very nice rebound from being frosted out by the early critics' bodies, only to show muscle in the industry prizes. I am starting to think Lee could overtake Cuaron. But it needs both Driver and Washington to get in for me to feel really comfortable with it.
One thing to note is the sheer gap between the Globe wins on Sunday and the Oscar/BAFTA nominations. That's a lot of time for backlash to brew. I wonder if we might see something win big there only to underwhelm at the final hurdles.
I'll stick with my guns and stay with The Favourite, if only because I am predicting it for Actress, Original Screenplay and Costumes, which is a healthy enough haul for a BP winner. I think if BAFTA goes hard for it enough to reward it, it benefits the most from a late surge over any of the others due to the aforementioned gap between the Globes/Critics' Choice and actual voting times for the Oscars.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 2, 2019 20:22:39 GMT
I have absolutely no idea at this point, quite frankly. Nothing feels right. Will wait until the end of the month to vote.
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Post by notacrook on Jan 2, 2019 20:36:29 GMT
I'd say the top 3 are The Favourite, Roma and A Star is Born.
I feel the latter seems almost too obvious, and like something that would have definitely won maybe a decade ago, but probably won't now - if La La Land couldn't, I don't think ASIB can. Meanwhile, Roma just has too many hurdles: Netflix, foreign-language, probably won't get in as many categories as the other two. I think both of these will get big rewards elsewhere (Actor for Cooper, Director for Cuaron at least).
That leaves The Favourite. I may be biased since it is my favourite (haha), but I could definitely see this winning. It has a very strong chance of winning Actress and Screenplay, as well as several other smaller categories, and plays to some classic Academy sensibilities while also being quirky and different enough to appeal to the modern voting bloc. Here's hoping it wins, anyway.
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Post by stephen on Jan 2, 2019 20:43:13 GMT
I'd say the top 3 are The Favourite, Roma and A Star is Born. I feel the latter seems almost too obvious, and like something that would have definitely won maybe a decade ago, but probably won't now - if La La Land couldn't, I don't think ASIB can. Meanwhile, Roma just has too many hurdles: Netflix, foreign-language, probably won't get in as many categories as the other two. I think both of these will get big rewards elsewhere (Actor for Cooper, Director for Cuaron at least). That leaves The Favourite. I may be biased since it is my favourite (haha), but I could definitely see this winning. It has a very strong chance of winning Actress and Screenplay, as well as several other smaller categories, and plays to some classic Academy sensibilities while also being quirky and different enough to appeal to the modern voting bloc. Here's hoping it wins, anyway. A lot of it comes down to numbers. It's pretty damn tough for a film to win Best Picture without at least a couple of other wins, with at least one being above-the-line. Roma has a strong hold on Cinematography and is all but locked for Foreign Language, and it's the Director frontrunner . . . but Spike Lee is gathering steam and Bradley Cooper is really going hard for that prize. I also feel like the actors' branch really needs to rally behind it, and Aparicio hasn't hit where she has needed to yet. Even though Roma is more a directing showpiece than an acting one, I'd feel more assured if Yalitza snuck in at the end of its overall chances. As for A Star Is Born, it's already guaranteed one win (Original Song). Gaga has tough competition, and with her already winning one that night, will they deign to give her two? Cooper is still the frontrunner in Actor, but Malek is gaining momentum and could spoil the party at the Globes this weekend and he probably is the BAFTA favorite unless they decide to rubber-stamp Cooper. And Bohemian Rhapsody has shown strength at SAG to score in Ensemble as well, so he's much more of a threat than initially expected. Cooper, however, is campaigning more for Best Director than he is for Actor, and if Malek did somehow gain enough momentum to overthrow him, they might throw him the bone in Best Director. That's why Spike Lee, I think, needs to come in hot. I think the Academy would totally give Cooper the win over Cuaron because Alfonso's already won, but imagine the blowback if Cooper beat Spike.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 2, 2019 20:59:23 GMT
I feel the latter seems almost too obvious, and like something that would have definitely won maybe a decade ago, but probably won't now - if La La Land couldn't, I don't think ASIB can. Meanwhile, Roma just has too many hurdles: Netflix, foreign-language, probably won't get in as many categories as the other two. I think both of these will get big rewards elsewhere (Actor for Cooper, Director for Cuaron at least). That leaves The Favourite. I may be biased since it is my favourite (haha), but I could definitely see this winning. It has a very strong chance of winning Actress and Screenplay, as well as several other smaller categories, and plays to some classic Academy sensibilities while also being quirky and different enough to appeal to the modern voting bloc. Here's hoping it wins, anyway. Yeah I'm biased too but this sums up the best arguments for a Lanthimos win. A Star Is Born would have been an obvious choice in 2008, and I'm really cautious about predicting it in a post-2016 landscape where La La Land's victory was considered a give-in for the same reasons that A Star Is Born looks good on paper: it was a love letter to the entertainment business, it was about overcoming insecurities and putting yourself into your art, it was a well-liked and an easy viewing crowdpleaser, it had romance, it was a frontrunner in most of the tech categories. All of this and it still lost to Moonlight. Every year is different of course, but we have to remember that this is largely the same voting bloc that denied Chazelle in the 2016 season in favor of something more political, socially relevant, and artsy, which some might say gives Roma the edge in 2018 but... I think people are underestimating the challenges facing Roma. It would be the first foreign language film to win the big prize, and while yes the Academy has been breaking trends left and right over the last decade it seems like a safe bet that they'll recognize the film by giving Cuaron the prize for director. It is telling that it's now a give-in pretty much that Cuaron is the front runner in his category but that Roma's shot at Best Picture are still up in the air. But it makes sense. And it also sidesteps all the obstacles Roma faces in the BP race (foreign, black-and-white, and Netflix). Anything could happen but I'm not comfortable betting against those odds, which leaves...what? We may be taking it for granted that The Favourite is the other frontrunner but I'd like to think it is, and it seems like a good choice for the reasons you mentioned. We can rule out most of the candidates save Black Panther (which looks good for a top 5 but isn't going to have much if any help in the big 8 categories to mount a serious challenge) and BlacKkKlansman (which has really picked up steam recently and looks good for two acting nominations, a director nomination, and a screenplay win). I want to rule out A Star Is Born for the reasons we've all stated, and I can't predict Roma either, but if the Academy doesn't want to give it to The Favourite I think they'd give it to BlacKkKlansman. It's the only other socially and politically relevant horse in the race capable of winning. That is if we're looking at another La La Land / Moonlight situation. I think what's going to hurt The Favourite most is Lanthimos potentially not getting in for director. Three Billboards was the frontrunner last year until McConaugh got edged out of the directing race and we all know how that ended. On the other hand, Lee's chances of getting into that lineup seem pretty good right now. Better than Lanthimos's.
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Post by chris3 on Jan 2, 2019 21:21:17 GMT
I think it's between BlacKkKlansman and A Star is Born. While I love The Favourite, audience response has been mixed at best. Go look at its shockingly low audience rating on RT for one. I saw the film in a packed auditorium (almost everyone was over forty) and my sister and I were the only two people laughing. At my theater an employee mentioned that many guests were asking for refunds because they had no idea the movie would be so "dirty". This is ridiculous to me (sure the movie is bawdy as hell, but it's no Wolf of Wall Street or anything), but I think many older voters expecting a respectable period piece will get turned off by the film's unvarnished bluntness. The Academy's taste still skews old and safe, and I don't see a movie with the word "c**tstruck" in it winning BP. I also don't see it getting as many passion votes as something arthouse like Roma or popular like A Star is Born (or hell, Bohemian Rhapsody). I think it's getting a ton of nominations but only a couple tech wins and maybe Screenplay.
Roma is too foreign, too Netflix, and too "slow". Many, many people (including myself) think the movie is a transcendent work of art and the greatest cinematic accomplishment of the year. Many, many people also find the movie extremely boring and overhyped. And many find it just okay. I don't see it winning, but then again I always predict against my #1 of the year (if it's nominated) just so I won't be disappointed to see it lose.
A Star is Born made insane amounts of money, the vast majority of audiences loved it, and it would be a big populist win at a time when the Academy seems to want to pander to the masses for better ratings. It's the safe pick, and I'm predicting it until the nominations arrive. The only thing going against it is that it's not Important enough for the win, especially in a year with a record number of contenders featuring people of color. Which leads me to:
Prognosticators are highly underestimating BlacKkKlansman. It ticks all the boxes. It's political (like Moonlight and Get Out) without being truly subversive, dangerous, or alienating (like Sorry to Bother You). It's made by a long overdue filmmaking legend. It's a crowdpleaser. It made money. It captures the zeitgeist (maybe not the film itself, but its topics). Like most recent BP wins, the movie is... fine. Not daring enough to be great, but definitely not bad either. If it over-performs at any of the other award ceremonies, or gets more nominations than expected, I'm officially predicting it for the win.
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 2, 2019 21:24:22 GMT
BlackKklansman.
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Post by morton on Jan 2, 2019 21:42:30 GMT
I feel the latter seems almost too obvious, and like something that would have definitely won maybe a decade ago, but probably won't now - if La La Land couldn't, I don't think ASIB can. Meanwhile, Roma just has too many hurdles: Netflix, foreign-language, probably won't get in as many categories as the other two. I think both of these will get big rewards elsewhere (Actor for Cooper, Director for Cuaron at least). That leaves The Favourite. I may be biased since it is my favourite (haha), but I could definitely see this winning. It has a very strong chance of winning Actress and Screenplay, as well as several other smaller categories, and plays to some classic Academy sensibilities while also being quirky and different enough to appeal to the modern voting bloc. Here's hoping it wins, anyway. Yeah I'm biased too but this sums up the best arguments for a Lanthimos win. A Star Is Born would have been an obvious choice in 2008, and I'm really cautious about predicting it in a post-2016 landscape where La La Land's victory was considered a give-in for the same reasons that A Star Is Born looks good on paper: it was a love letter to the entertainment business, it was about overcoming insecurities and putting yourself into your art, it was a well-liked and an easy viewing crowdpleaser, it had romance, it was a frontrunner in most of the tech categories. All of this and it still lost to Moonlight. Every year is different of course, but we have to remember that this largely the same voting bloc that denied Chazelle in the 2016 season in favor of something more political, socially relevant, and artsy, which some might say gives Roma the edge in 2018 but... I think people are underestimating the challenges facing Roma. It would be the first foreign language film to win the big prize, and while yes the Academy has been breaking trends left and right over the last decade it seems like a safe bet that they'll recognize the film by giving Cuaron the prize for director. It is telling that it's now a give-in pretty much that Cuaron is the front runner in his category but that Roma's shot at Best Picture are still up in the air. But it makes sense. And it also sidesteps all the obstacles Roma faces in the BP race (foreign, black-and-white, and Netflix). Anything could happen but I'm not comfortable betting against those odds, which leaves...what? We may be taking it for granted that The Favourite is the other frontrunner but I'd like to think it is. We can rule out most of the candidates saving Black Panther (which looks good for a top 5 but isn't going to have much if any help in the big 8 categories to mount a serious challenge) and BlacKkKlansman (which has really picked up steam recently and looks good for two acting nominations, a director nomination, and a screenplay win). I want to rule out A Star Is Born for the reasons we've all stated, and I can't predict Roma either, but if the Academy doesn't want to give it to The Favourite I think they'd give it to BlacKkKlansman. It's the only other socially and politically relevant horse in the race capable of winning. That is if we're looking at another La La Land / Moonlight situation. I think what's going to hurt The Favourite most is Lanthimos potentially not getting in for director. Three Billboards was the frontrunner last year until McConaugh got edged out of the directing race and we all know how that ended. On the other hand, Lee's chances of getting into that lineup seem pretty good right now. Better than Lanthimos's.
I keep going back and forth on Roma and A Star Is Born, but both have serious obstacles, imo. I agree that it does seem unlikely that if La La Land which was a much stronger film couldn't win just two years ago with some of the same themes as ASIB, I'm not sure that ASIB will be able to. Also I was thinking about what could possibly win Best Picture, and I think that ASIB really lacks the "importance" factor that the other possible winners might have like "racism is bad", "women can be just as bad as men", etc. Not to dismiss the message of being true to one's art and not selling out, but I feel that it sort of got muddled in ASIB. Even if it hadn't got muddled, I don't know if that's on the same level as the other possible BP winners as I think that some voters might vote for something that makes them feel good about voting for it Best Picture "like this award really means something, so I'll vote for the most important film" to win or in more basic speak the Spotlight/ Moonlight effect. On the other hand, as has been mentioned Roma might have that factor, but it has so many other factors going against it: Foreign language film, black and white, Netflix, missed SAG completely. They could just give it director and FLF and call it a day. I'm still going with Roma though because there is a path through director, and without knowing for sure that there's going to be a Boyhood/ Birdman split where Boyhood sweeps most of the critics awards, but Birdman is championed by the industry, it makes sense on paper right now. I do think that there's a path for BlacKkKlansman too though because it's the overwhelming favorite now in adapted screenplay and Lee could surprise in Best Director, and it has the advantage so far in that it's shielded by ASIB, and it can let that take the heat and get backlash. I'm not quite brave enough to predict it yet, but if things break for it in the right way I might. I think at the Globes if it wins Best Picture or Director that would be a big break for it. Certainly if it were to win SAG Ensemble, I would probably start predicting it to win Best Picture. It would also need to do well in terms of nominations at BAFTA too including Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor. I think missing actor would be okay because I think that John David Washington is in the weakest position right now out of those that hit GG and SAG, and BAFTA is biased against his dad, but if a miracle happened, and he made it, I would just predict it to win right then and there, if it had enough support for Washington to make BAFTA. Another sign like that which probably will never happen would be if Laura Harrier snuck into Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars. I doubt it, but since I see some people elsewhere saying that Linda Cardellini or Marina De Tavira could surprise because of the strengths of their films, I thought I should throw out Harrier's name as well. I agree about Black Panther too. I think that if it won SAG Ensemble and PGA then there's a possible path, but I think it also has to be nominated for Best Picture at BAFTA, and overperform at the Oscars as well so Coogler, Jordan, and adapted screenplay along with the other techs that are expected. That seems like a Herculean task to make all that, and like you said, I don't see it winning a top 8 award at all so that path is out. Finally, I want to have more faith in The Favourite, but the fact that the men don't get to do anything I think will hurt its chances with the steak eaters. Plus, Lanthimos missed Director at the Globes and he might miss at the Oscars, it missed SAG Ensemble, and even Mary, Queen of Scots is doing better than it at the box office. So while I loved it, and it has almost as much critics support as Roma, I don't know if has enough mass appeal to win BP.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 2, 2019 21:46:48 GMT
and I don't see a movie with the word "c**tstruck" in it winning BP. weren't people saying that about Shape of Water's interspecies relationship too though? Birdman was a pretty out-there choice too, moreso than The Favourite I'd say.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 2, 2019 22:03:28 GMT
Even though I have a strong feeling "Roma" will make history by becoming the first non-English language BP winner (Lord knows Netflix is doing everything to pimp the movie, sparing no expense), I voted for "BlacKkKlansman". A film's politics, message and 'hitting-the-zeitgeist' quality seem to be the most important factors for a Best Picture win these days, and Lee's joint fits the bill. It also has the advantage of being pretty watchable mainstream entertainment based on a true story, thus giving it more heft (kinda reminds me of "Argo" in that way). And Lee's overdue status may play a big part in people wanting to support him.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 2, 2019 22:20:03 GMT
yeah I'm voting for Favourite right now out of wishful thinking until the nominees are announced. The only thing that would convince me to favor ASIB or Roma is if Lanthimos gets snubbed for director and BlacKkKlansman seriously under-performs in the big 8. EDIT: Isn't it cool how up in the air things are this year? We have an exciting race for once
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Jan 2, 2019 22:28:44 GMT
and I don't see a movie with the word "c**tstruck" in it winning BP. weren't people saying that about Shape of Water's interspecies relationship too though? Birdman was a pretty out-there choice too, moreso than The Favourite I'd say. I thought this might be brought up, and it's a good point. The difference for me, though, is the tone. The Shape of Water has a wild concept (in Oscar context), but ultimately it feels like a rather sweet love story. Sure, everyone in the real world made jokes about the beastiality component, but within the film itself everything is handled in a tender, adult, compassionate manner. It's not a crass film. The movie itself was also intensely Academy-friendly in that it evokes both a cinematic nostalgia for its era whilst also including within the narrative some light, easy social commentary about racism and various social injustices of said era. Quite a far cry from The Favourite, which is delightfully wicked and ribald, and mean as well. When was the last time a cynical, mean film won Best Picture? You might say Birdman, which I agree is also a somewhat 'out-there' choice. But Birdman was a technical high-wire act of enormous ambition. The movie is a dark comedy, yes, but I think its one-take magic trick (some would say gimmick; not me, I love it) is what really defined that movie within the awards conversation. The Favourite lacks that aspect. Mostly though, I'm going off of my own personal experience. I saw the film twice (first alone in an empty theater, second with my sister in a packed theater). I think it's one of the funniest movies of the year. Loved it. I was so excited to see it with a Friday night crowd, and it was like crickets. No one was getting into the movie. I was so shocked. At first I thought, "Well, Reno is probably just full of sticks in the mud," but then I went home to look up its audience ratings and, sure enough, 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, well below any of the other contenders. And the overriding criticism (much like Wolf in '13) is that it's too crass (which again confounds me, but Americans are weird). And if it's too crass for the older demographic (the people who usually go see period pieces of its ilk), it's probably too crass for the Academy. I'll still be rooting for it right behind Roma, and the Academy has pleasantly surprised me recently (hello Moonlight), so I guess we'll see. But I'm still thinking it's between Klansman and ASIB.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 2, 2019 22:36:50 GMT
Black Panther
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 2, 2019 22:41:07 GMT
I'd say the top 3 are The Favourite, Roma and A Star is Born. I feel the latter seems almost too obvious, and like something that would have definitely won maybe a decade ago, but probably won't now - if La La Land couldn't, I don't think ASIB can. Meanwhile, Roma just has too many hurdles: Netflix, foreign-language, probably won't get in as many categories as the other two. I think both of these will get big rewards elsewhere (Actor for Cooper, Director for Cuaron at least). That leaves The Favourite. I may be biased since it is my favourite (haha), but I could definitely see this winning. It has a very strong chance of winning Actress and Screenplay, as well as several other smaller categories, and plays to some classic Academy sensibilities while also being quirky and different enough to appeal to the modern voting bloc. Here's hoping it wins, anyway. The Favorite didn't even get Ensemble nor Globe Director. How the fuck is it 3rd place over Black Panther, Klansman and even Green Book or even frontrunner? I really can't wait for more guilds to come so it can bury the wishful thinking that this may have a chance at all
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 2, 2019 22:41:23 GMT
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 2, 2019 22:41:26 GMT
It's hard to say, really. I think BlacKkKlansman has done a very nice rebound from being frosted out by the early critics' bodies, only to show muscle in the industry prizes. I am starting to think Lee could overtake Cuaron. But it needs both Driver and Washington to get in for me to feel really comfortable with it. One thing to note is the sheer gap between the Globe wins on Sunday and the Oscar/BAFTA nominations. That's a lot of time for backlash to brew. I wonder if we might see something win big there only to underwhelm at the final hurdles. I'll stick with my guns and stay with The Favourite, if only because I am predicting it for Actress, Original Screenplay and Costumes, which is a healthy enough haul for a BP winner. I think if BAFTA goes hard for it enough to reward it, it benefits the most from a late surge over any of the others due to the aforementioned gap between the Globes/Critics' Choice and actual voting times for the Oscars. I don’t think it needs Washington to get nominated to win... That’s not how it works. I mean Argo failed to get Affleck an acting and directing nod (backlash to him missing directing) and it still won BP. No voter is gonna say to themselves oh I can’t vote for BlackKklansman cause it didn’t get a Leading nod. Also his performance does not scream Oscar! He’s solid but doesn’t really have baity scenes. Also it’s a preferential ballot.
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Post by morton on Jan 2, 2019 22:51:38 GMT
weren't people saying that about Shape of Water's interspecies relationship too though? Birdman was a pretty out-there choice too, moreso than The Favourite I'd say. I thought this might be brought up, and it's a good point. The difference for me, though, is the tone. The Shape of Water has a wild concept (in Oscar context), but ultimately it feels like a rather sweet love story. Sure, everyone in the real world made jokes about the beastiality component, but within the film itself everything is handled in a tender, adult, compassionate manner. It's not a crass film. The movie itself was also intensely Academy-friendly in that it evokes both a cinematic nostalgia for its era whilst also including within the narrative some light, easy social commentary about racism and various social injustices of said era. Quite a far cry from The Favourite, which is delightfully wicked and ribald, and mean as well. When was the last time a cynical, mean film won Best Picture? You might say Birdman, which I agree is also a somewhat 'out-there' choice. But Birdman was a technical high-wire act of enormous ambition. The movie is a dark comedy, yes, but I think its one-take magic trick (some would say gimmick; not me, I love it) is what really defined that movie within the awards conversation. The Favourite lacks that aspect. Mostly though, I'm going off of my own personal experience. I saw the film twice (first alone in an empty theater, second with my sister in a packed theater). I think it's one of the funniest movies of the year. Loved it. I was so excited to see it with a Friday night crowd, and it was like crickets. No one was getting into the movie. I was so shocked. At first I thought, "Well, Reno is probably just full of sticks in the mud," but then I went home to look up its audience ratings and, sure enough, 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, well below any of the other contenders. And the overriding criticism (much like Wolf in '13) is that it's too crass (which again confounds me, but Americans are weird). And if it's too crass for the older demographic (the people who usually go see period pieces of its ilk), it's probably too crass for the Academy. I'll still be rooting for it right behind Roma, and the Academy has pleasantly surprised me recently (hello Moonlight), so I guess we'll see. But I'm still thinking it's between Klansman and ASIB. I think that Birdman was fortunate in that Boyhood was the early front runner, and that Selma never fully got off the ground in time. Boyhood didn't really have much of a message either, and while Selma could have been the important film to vote for, I think it came on way too late. First it was early test screenings that weren't very positive, then it was the screener issue, or then it was American Sniper being one of the other late releases taking a lot of attention that could have went to Selma instead.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 2, 2019 23:44:51 GMT
I don’t understand the argument that if La La Land couldn’t win BP then A Star is Born is unlikely to. The movies are very different and so is the competition.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 3, 2019 2:42:41 GMT
I don’t understand the argument that if La La Land couldn’t win BP then A Star is Born is unlikely to. The movies are very different and so is the competition. Essentially I'd say the argument boils down to two things. The first is that the same backlash that hit La La Land in the final stretch of the race might feasibly hit ASIB as well. Objectively speaking, they're not all that different in terms of subject matter and approach; the genre, the themes, even their endings hit very similar beats. Both premiered at Venice with a bang, and from then on the "BEST PICTURE FRONTRUNNER" talk became inescapable. The thing is, there's a whole six months between the fall festivals and the Oscar ceremony; sustaining that level of enthusiasm and momentum throughout the inevitable storm of thinkpieces and "yeah I didn't think it was all that great, guys" reactions is very, very difficult. Eventually the conversation begins to change and perceptions start to alter; that type of unanimous, rapturous acclaim invites a lot of dissenters and "overrated" talk, which leaves an opening for a well-liked stealth alternative that hasn't worn down people's patience and hasn't been subjected to the same level of scrutiny to emerge. With ASIB exploding the way it did right off the bat, there's always the possibility that it may have peaked too soon and that once the dust settles down people will no longer find it to be the best thing since sliced bread, and that cooling down period might coincide with the window in which the final ballots are out (see American Hustle's epic deflation). Three Billboards, La La Land, Boyhood etc. all went through this, and ASIB has been in theaters for so long (nearly 3 months) that it's no longer the freshest, shiniest toy in the playground. The second aspect of the argument is closely related to the first: ASIB hasn't been hit with any pseudo-controversy or thinkpiece fodder on par with " La La Land is about a white man single-handedly saving jazz and that's the most racist thing to plague screens since D.W. Griffith" or " Three Billboards humanizes a racist character therefore we're supposed to believe he's the hero and the film condones his racism", but the fact of the matter is that it's... not really about anything of substance. It's a crowdpleasing love story taking place against the backdrop of the music industry, but that's it. The Academy used to fawn over films like that up until very recently ( The Artist is a clear comparison right down to its plotline), but starting from 2013 there's been a noticeable shift in the way they operate. Some will say this started with Spotlight, but I think it was actually 12 Years a Slave that marked that initial shakeup, and everything since then has simply been a continuation of that process. With the switch to the preferential ballot and the Academy's reiterated efforts to expand its membership and include artists from various different backgrounds and nationalities, the Best Picture prize began to take on a different role, and that's reflected in the types of projects that win these days. Not only do films now have to appeal to a wider range of voters, to the point where it's better to be liked by everyone ( Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water) than outright loved by some and hated by others ( The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards), the current system also benefits movies that double-down as political statements. 12 Years a Slave was an unflinching look at race and black history (far more violent and unfriendly than previous race-related BP winners) from a filmmaking team that was primarily comprised of black artists, which made its victory a landmark moment; Spotlight was about the power of investigative journalism and the responsibility of the free press to hold the powerful accountable; Moonlight was a deeply empathetic study on masculinity through the triple prism of race, sexuality and poverty; The Shape of Water was an adult fable about unconventional love between social outcasts of various natures. I don't even really like every single one of these films, but I think we can all agree that those were the narratives surrounding them. You might point to Birdman as an exception to this rule and I'll agree, but Iñárritu's film definitely benefitted from unorthodox top 3 competition ( Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel) that didn't tick the boxes that all other post- Argo winners did, and it also had the highwire technical spectacle aiding its case. Either way, though, the very fact that that was the top 3 that season at the expense of much more traditionally baity alternatives like The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything examplifies the shift I'm talking about; Birdman may be about the film industry, which we all know is subject matter that the Academy has always loved to throw a flurry of statues at, but even then, it's an offbeat dark comedy that's very cynical and critical of the milieu that it's portraying. It's a peculiar BP winner even if it's about movie stars, and I don't think it would've won were it not for the current membership shakeup. (Plus, if anything resembles it in the current race, it's The Favourite, not ASIB, so no luck there.) All of this is to say that the recent Best Picture winners point to a socially conscious trend that ASIB and La La Land don't really fit into. The argument you're talking about is that if even Chazelle's film, with its sky-high raves (better than ASIB's, by the by), massive box-office overperformance, instant sensation status, immensely likeable leads and feel-good throwback to a bygone era of musicals faltered at the finish line in favor of a tiny indie from an unknown filmmaker about a black gay drug dealer, it stands to reason that the same factors that worked against it might also work against Cooper's film, given their massive similarities and the fact that the political climate in the world is actually more fraught right now than it was back then. Roma, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite and even Black Panther carry a lot more weight to them than a crowdpleaser that doesn't even bother to flesh out the one semblance of a thematic leg that it has to stand on (the whole artistic integrity angle that's only relevant for about 30 seconds). And that matters a lot in these post- Argo days. I'm not saying ASIB can't win, but that's the argument and I subscribe to it, which is why I'm not convinced that Cooper's film is a sure thing at this point.
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Post by quetee on Jan 3, 2019 3:04:50 GMT
I'm still having a problem with Roma winning best picture. I refuse to believe that this movie will be the first foreign language movie to win when it didn't even make a splash with audiences. I mean, Bird Box gets a 45 mill viewers headline, what did Roma get?
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 3, 2019 3:19:17 GMT
I'm still having a problem with Roma winning best picture. I refuse to believe that this movie will be the first foreign language movie to win when it didn't even make a splash with audiences. I mean, Bird Box gets a 45 mill viewers headline, what did Roma get? I mean, Roma doesn't need to make Bird Box-level noise to be in the running, and it was never getting that many viewers anyway given its slow pacing and language barrier, but last time I checked it was doing well in limited release. Netflix doesn't disclose its numbers so we'll never know for sure, but I do remember reading in an article somewhere that it was overperforming.
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 3, 2019 5:30:26 GMT
I'm moving back to Klansman, but anything is possible.
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