DECEMBER POLL: Which film will win Best Picture?

It's nomination would be its win. 

Yeah, I think I'm switching my vote to Roma.

Jordan is not winning, his nod is a major win. Like I said before, Spike is getting a nod and either Barry or Ryan goes with him and I think Ryan has a better shot. Ryan of course won't win. Director is actually a cluster. I don't think Farrelly scores a nod cause that type of movie seems to get snubbed in director. Adam? Who knows at this point, he is possible, then you have Yorgos who could get snubbed cause he's an "outsider". We do know that Cooper and CuAron are locks.

Anyway, lmao....adapted screenplay is possible cause Ryan wrote it and they love constellation prizes in that category. And some people of course are lazy and will just vote down the line.

If Coogler gets in Best Director and there's Michael B. Jordan in Supporting Actor, the path to a potential Black Panther win is paved. The problem with the movie lies with the 4 big guilds: it has to hit PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. Even just one miss would spell death for its chances.

I feel it could be a toss up between A Star is Born, Roma, and The Favourite.

DGA has often surprised with big-budget, top-grossing films. I think SAG is more complicated.

Honestly I'm guessing they'll just give it to Green Book.

Best Director to Cuaron

Acting awards to some combination of Star Is Born and The Favorite

BlacKKKlansman

I voted for Roma, but I'm not very confident in it. Maybe after SAG, we'll have a clearer picture. If ASIB wins there, then I'll likely switch to that.

It's just that both Roma and ASIB seem very weak right now, but nothing else really seems that strong either. Roma missed SAG even with all of Netflix's elaborate campaigning for it while Bohemian Rhapsody managed to get in. This could be another year where the critics and guilds go for different things similar to when Boyhood dominated the critics' awards, but Birdman dominated the guilds.

ASIB had some backlash, but for the most part, I think it's been lucky in that there have been bigger targets later on to shield it. It didn't win at NBR as expected but still did well there. It will probably win at the Globes, but it doesn't seem to have the dominance factor that La La Land had there as Elliott wasn't even nominated, which should help it from getting the backlash that La La Land got after the Globes. On the other hand, it probably won't win Director or Screenplay. Plus, while I could see it winning Best Actor and Best Actress, I think that it could be hurt in the Best Picture race if people think that it pales in comparison to something like Roma, and that winning two big awards of the night would be more than enough for the film. I could also see some voters may also think that it the other versions of the film were better.

In addition to Roma and ASIB, there's Black Panther. It's done well so far, but I think at the end of the day that the nomination might be its reward and that there will still be a biased against it from some members because it's a superhero movie. It was only a few short years ago that the industry backed Birdman over the critical favorite Boyhood partly because voters could relate to several things in Birdman like the criticism of superhero films. Plus, it's unlikely to win Director or Screenplay, it might even miss both categories.

There's Green Book, but even though the controversy hasn't taken it down yet, it feels like one of those schmaltzy Miramax films that would get in like Finding Neverland or Chocolat that make voters feel good about themselves, but ultimately never win the big prize. Now if it had Weinstein at his full Oscar power back then behind it, then maybe it might get close like The Cider House Rules or something, but I could see this being one of those films getting 4-5 nominations and then going home empty-handed.

Next there's The Favourite which should win BAFTA unless they decide to go with whatever they think the Oscar will go with. I'm hesitant though because Yorgos Lanthimos missed Best Director at the Globes, and I've seen people that love the film until the ending. It also seems like a strange winner, imo, as it's primarily around women, and while there are a lot of important issues that it addresses, I don't know that it has the "importance" factor that something like Spotlight and Moonlight had that helped them.

Finally, there's BlacKkKlansman. I don't want to jinx it because it hasn't done that well with the critics' awards, but industry wise, so far it's doing quite well. BAFTA will be a big test though. If it can get in there and get nominations for Lee and Driver, then I think that would be a big test of its strength. I don't see Washington getting in because they've snubbed his father for years, but if a miracle did happen and he got in, I think that might be a sign for me to pencil it in to win the Academy Award for Best Picture. On paper though, aside from the critics' wins and Lee possibly making too many enemies in his career, I think it could be a film to keep an eye on. It has the "importance" factor, will likely win Adapted Screenplay, and got a SAG Ensemble nomination. I won't hold my breath though because every time I think that it should do well like at certain smaller critics' awards, it misses or barely gets anything. Then, when I think it might not show up at all or might only get the minimum like at the Globes or SAG, it exceeds my expectations.

Blackkklansman is an option but I think it is in 5th position at the moment but the guilds haven't chimed in yet and the big guys haven't picked any winners yet so it is still a contender. First Man and Vice are dead.

Okay, so even Universal doesn't think First Man is scoring BP nod. On way to work today, I saw FYC ad on bus for First Man in the adapted screenplay category. They waste an ad for that rather than best picture? I have never seen ad for screenplay only like that on bus.