2018 New York Film Critics Circle winners.

Looking forward to 20 hours from now, when we find out what their Best Picture winner is.

If Hawke and Schrader can make a dent here it's huge for them and you would think it's more of a NY film critics kind of pic.

Eh, I'm not sure about that. The only times they've ever had a foreign language film win Best Film was in a period where they didn't have a Foreign Language category. Also, it's kinda weird to have a foreign movie win Best Film and yet not have it also win Best Foreign Film. It's why a lot of critics' bodies like this wait until they've announced Best Film before they announce the Foreign winner, just in case there's overlap.

Which is why I wonder why the hell they even bothered to do the foreign language category early or at all, if Roma is in the thick of it for BP. If it loses, they can at least give it the FL prize and they've acknowledged it. If it wins, no need to have the presumed runner-up take that category instead, which causes the weird optics I mentioned above.

I can see them giving it something like Best Director, but I can also see NYFCC doing its own thing for Best Film.

Best Documentary is interesting this year. Minding The Gap is getting raves, then there's RBG that's very relevant, and then the Mr. Rogers doc. I think the Academy will go the easiest choice (Won't You Be My Neighbour) but the race will be very split.

I thought Isle Of Dogs would get this but this is an interesting choice indeed. I wonder whether we should start predicting it for the Oscars.

I actually have thought it makes the most sense as a winner. Isle of Dogs has no real momentum (Wes fans love it but people seemed to be predicting it for lack of a better option), Incredibles 2 was very lucrative but seems not to have a whole lot of legs, and Ralph Breaks the Internet hasn't lit the world on fire. The Spidey film has the Marvel factor, Stan Lee's recent passing (Spider-Man was his signature character) and is sure to be a B.O. sensation.

I've not seen Roma yet, but Cold War would make a sublime winner. Of course, that's unless people wake up and realize how much of a visual feast Mandy is.

Grant is coming, gang.

He sure makes a lot of sense as a winner, especially when his strongest competitor won in this category just 2 years ago.

I don't think this is much the case anymore, although it would obviously benefit him if she and the film did well (and I still think she's in). Grant is practically a co-lead, has a weak-ass category against him, and is likely the BAFTA favorite. I personally think that Ali winning his second so soon after his first feels unfeasible (before y'all come at me with Christoph Waltz 2.0 comparisons, he was up against all winners and his film benefited from a late surge), Elliott feels more like an industry guy than a critics' choice, and I feel if he wins that likely means his film does as well (Cooper in Actor, Gaga in Song, BP, etc.). I could see it happening, but I also feel the Academy's more keen to spread the love these days. Chalamet is looking more and more in danger of missing, Driver needs the critics behind him, etc., etc. I think Grant's only real weakness is the general size of his movie, but I trust in Fox Searchlight.

Why, though? I do think she'll be nominated, especially if he gains more and more momentum and ensures that the film is watched by enough voters, but Best Actress is shaping up to be the most competitive acting category this season while Supporting Actor is the exact opposite, so I think he can pull through even if she ultimately doesn't make it, especially when the film itself also has Screenplay traction.