Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2017 21:51:26 GMT
No.
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atn
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Post by atn on Dec 3, 2017 23:16:17 GMT
no lol
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tobias
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Post by tobias on Dec 4, 2017 14:36:47 GMT
Oh god, Americans discussing about German politics... Look, in Germany we have no presidential system. Merkel is not elected directly by the people but by the parliament (which I don't necesarilly think is a negative for the record). Her powers are relatively limited and she governed in relative accordance with CDU (her party) principles asides from a few specific cases. I don't like her, I think she's a terrible leader (by my own standards mind you, by US standards she's better than anyone you had since Carter) because all she does is sitting around and wasting time, she's just chancellor to be chancellor, she has no project (so like any Republican since Reagan). Though I must say that this is a political evalutation, personally speaking, I have more sympathy for her than for any previous CDU chancellor and I think she's probably a relatively sensible person. The social democrats are in theory supposed to be to the left of her but in reality they often come across as more rightwing and some of them are just awful all around to the point where it starts to feel personal (see Olaf Scholz, Sigmar Gabriel, Thomas Opperman - all of which I dislike personally aswell as politically). But Merkel's party is horseshit and she governed in accordance with it. However the point is that the new chancellor will almost undoubtedly be from her party again. So you pretty much have the choice between either youngster yuppies similar to Sebastian Kurz in Austria (the most embarrasing of all possibilities and the one that would personally irk me the most because I can't stand such people, I'll probably protest by standing in front of their door all day and reading out loud the german philosophers from Kant to the Frankfurt school, also humanist litterature like Goethe or Schiller; if they're gonna elect some 30 year old dimwit, that would be such a huge blow to all the genuinly intelligent young people that exist, it's really not proper, I'll offer the german Parliament to tour the universities to find them a better chancellor in that case) which in our case would be a guy like Jens Spahn, some really terrible hyper-conservative from the old guard (like Edmund Stoiber, Volker Kauder, Horst Seehofer or Wolfgang Schäuble - though they all lack the traction for this), someone who is just straightout incompetent and otherwise unprolific (I would personally put Ursula Von der Leyen there and Alexander Dobrindt) or some relatively swell conservative with real integrity (Norbert Lammert - the previous president of parliament, but retired just after the election or Heiner Geißler who sadly died this year at 87 but was retired aswell). The last category is almost inexistent but they are among the politicians I have a lot of respect for, that type of oldschool politicians. I wold say that when one puts her inconsequentiality aside, Merkel has at least a slight touch from there but she's also very much a stiff career politician. What I'm trying to say though is that getting rid of Merkel is almost a non-factor and if it is a factor, it probably means a change for the worse because Merkel is at least in a technical sense competent (though in an overall judgement I would not call her that) and not in the intensely corporate jackshit camp. She is without a question on the better side of the CDU. And even for the unlikely scenario that you get an even better guy from the old guard, the party will still heavily dominate the governing style. Merkel at least currently has the traction to do stuff (the problem is that she doesn't), kinda like LBJ. If you want someone else from the CDU who is not a marionette he will from my POV undoubtedly be worse than Merkel. For someone else who could in theory be better the only option would be to establish trust after he is elected chancellor which will be an uphill battle and could take very long if at all doable, short: I don't see it happening. One other realitstic option could be a current CDU minister president (correspondent to your governors I guess). I think the 2 who currently have the best standing are probably Volker Bouffier (who I don't know enough about to judge) or Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (who to me at least seems almost certainly like Merkel 2.0. in 20-30 years younger which for conservatives also means worse) but they would both have to fully establish themselves in federal politics first. What I want to say is that American discussion about politics tends to be incredibly ignorant. If you want reality TV-show politics that is all about the characters, that's fine but please keep it on your side of the pond (you've made the White House a reality show already, isn't that enough?). The only real evaluation here is wheter kicking Merkel could consilidate the country (because a lot of hilbilly's straight up hate her which is probably a projection of their own insatisfaction with their lives) or to bite the bullet and make the CDU a "real conservative" party again; well, not a real-real conservative party, that would be the swell principled guys but the kind of conservative that people sold you as conservative for the last 40 years (aka. the Schäuble/Kauder/Stoiber camp). In that case we'll be the laughing stock of Europe for the next 4 years but the numbers of the CDU will fall because when the moderating face of Merkel is gone and they see the real face of the CDU, I don't think more than 30 % will want that anymore. Personally I care more about the policy and that could get better or worse with or without Merkel. There are tons of scenarios, I don't see why Merkel would be the decisive factor. I think Bouffier could be a healthy step forward, not because he will necesarilly be a great chancellor, I'd rather doubt that but it would in some sense but the debate back on a level playing field and he would be kind of an interim chancellor like Kiesinger and set the stage for something different in 2021 (though Kiesinger was a nazi, Bouffier is probably better). However I think that likewise a Merkel minority government could similarly change the playing field. A Grand coalition could with or without Merkel be the deathblow to the social democrats, they kind of deserve it but it's also sad and not a good sign for the future that's about to come. I really wish they would just go back to be more like the party they were when Lafontaine (who later went off to found the modern left party) was in charge. What we really need here though is a revolution of discourse, that's why I would also not necesarilly be opposed to a crap-tier conservative taking over. It will suck short term but the lines will be clearer again in a couple of years. The real problem in Germany is that I don't see what we need the SPD (social democrats) and CDU (christian conservatives) for anymore. Currently people can hardly tell them apart and their positions are the least clear. All other parties in parliament have some kind of project (even if they are mired in incompetence and have a fashist wing that is slowly taking over like the AFD), the CDU & SPD merely have the claim that they did it forever and their voters are slowly dying away. If they want to be a real people's party, they have to open up (like Labour did in the UK). I also have a very hard time seeing what we need the CDU for in general. In theory I'm not opposed to conservatism. If you have something nice, keeping it up is a good thing but the CDU is so different from the actual conservative ideal that I just don't see such a reformation happening. The SPD at least some 20 years ago was actually an alright party, they just have to finally kick their horrible leadership (and I don't mean Schulz who was only been there for a year, I'm meaning those who have been at front and center for a much longer time). P.S.: And for anyone thinking about refugee politics: Merkel made a huge mistake, the mistake that will in the future, besides her inconsequentiality give her an awful reputation (as maybe the worst chancellor we had in the federal republic so far if she is unlucky). I personally think it was horrendously stupid and was a gigantic step towards destroying the EU (because it drove the countries apart and permanently undermined a european solution) - which I am actually very mad about. However she backpaddled and switched to the classical approach of modern conservatives: denial. Basicly she tries to prevent anyone from getting to Germany via deals with other states, it's a vicious anti-refugee policy that is not aimed at solving problems but actually just stacks them up for a later time, like building a dam that you know will burst. Regardless of whoever becomes our next chancellor (as far as realistic options go), he or she will continue this policy. If you think another (realistic) chancellor would make significantly different politics in this area, you're a fool. Even with an AFD chancellor, we would merely symbolically deport a few people but it wouldn't be all that consequential in that department. 99 % of all talk about the refugee situation is meaningless shittalk anyway, from both sides. Some of the only sane proposals I've seen came from Lafontaine/Wagenknecht but their party throws cakes at them for that and calls them nazis. Unfortunately in the Left the old guard conservative socialist guys are usually the nicer side, the "progressives" who I guess are supposed to be what people in my demographics are supposed to like are unfortunately frequently idiotic (and they would not get enough votes for parliament if they were a lone party). and I am in theory very much for progressivism, I think we need tremendous change (which are also my gripes with the conservative camp) but it's not the kind of change that seems at all fashionable to talk about. As Trump would put it: Sad. Tagging everyone who replied so far: @hi224 , atn , @tepebenjamin , @raygittes07
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tobias
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Post by tobias on Dec 5, 2017 6:02:07 GMT
i mean I am not discussing at all so. Yeah, I'm just tagging everyone.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Dec 5, 2017 7:24:57 GMT
tobiasWell, 40 years ago I remember German federal Republic and German democratic Republic. What was perceived as conservative in the 70s - 80s isn't the same as today. Besides, Merkel was born and raised (even politically wise) in East Germany, so her political views might differ a bit from the average European popular party.
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tobias
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Post by tobias on Dec 5, 2017 8:55:10 GMT
tobias Well, 40 years ago I remember German federal Republic and German democratic Republic. What was perceived as conservative in the 70s - 80s isn't the same as today. Besides, Merkel was born and raised (even politically wise) in East Germany, so her political views might differ a bit from the average European popular party. I don't really know, the east German CDU is heavily problematic but Merkel falls in a somewhat unusual square, that's true. She has a PDH in physics, not law (like most career politicians), she started out late, she is really controlled and moderate outwards, she has a quiet personal life, she is not involved in any corruption and she stands somewhere inbetween the camps. She does every once upon a time make comments about what we ought to do (and she is usually not wrong) but such comments from her give me stomach pains because that's often excactly what her administration actively fights againt. It seems very dishonest but on the other hand what she says seems to reflect her personal belief. Maybe she is in denial, maybe she thinks she does the right thing and that what she currently does on these issues is the way to solve them (while I think it looks more like screwing it up). For instance in a debate she mentioned that we need to talk about digitalization but this is excactly what Merkel has failed for years and years. She talks about saving the car industry but then does nothing to advance electric cars. Meanwhile China is about to introduce quotas and the best thing Merkel has to do is to travel there and make them wait a little. Meanwhile in Europe France & the UK both set official expiration dates for traditional combustion engines. Most of our neighbouring countries are set to do much better with technological advances because they embrace the change that will happen regardless of. Merkel fails to anticipate change. We cling to models that will run out. I don't think Merkel is honest on these issues but that might be because it's a very tough sell to her party. I'm at least open to her personally believing in the right thing but if that's the case, she makes the wrong compromise by bending over for the bavarian CSU who are the absolute worst and some real idiots with a poor grasp of economics. Recently one of their ministers sold the german people out by deciding that despite the government's unanimous decission to abstain on the vote, he'd rather vote for glyphosate in the EU chamber. That ended up being the decisive vote. Then there are also guys like Alexander Dobrindt... and honestly, he's on the level where it becomes hard to understand that these people are running your country. He seems like someone with legitimate learning disabilities or something (how he got his diploma in sociology I can't grasp). I agree that for her party her views are probably unusual but it's impossible to judge her actual values. A German philosopher made a good comment regarding that: "Hat Merkel ihre Werte verraten? Also mir nicht" The point here is that "verraten" has 2 meanings in German. To betray someone or something or to tell someone something. He plays on both of this as one would understand the first sentence as: "Did Merkel betray her values?" But then in the 2nd sentence he refers to the other understanding ("Did Merkel tell what her values are") by saying: "Not to me". I think he is right. It is impossible to say what Merkel really believes in. That's a very, very unusual quality in state leaders today, at least in democracies.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Dec 5, 2017 17:00:46 GMT
tobiasAbout electric engines, I see that even Marchionne, the ceo of Fiat Chrysler automobile, is stopping the production of electric cars because he says, pollution is simply moved to another place (where you produce the electricity needed by electric engines). He's focusing on more efficient engines instead of electric ones. We'll see how it'll end in the next years I guess.
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