What would you be predicting if there was 5 BP nominees?

Same five as you.

Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Poor Things
American Fiction

Based on films that have already premiered and been reviewed. Be interesting to see how The Creator shakes out based on early word.

The Creator's getting good word of mouth but it's still a genre picture, and those didn't do too well in the five-nominee ballot days. A lot of those early tweets were delving into the realm of hyperbole; I imagine the actual response will settle after a while. But Alien, Blade Runner and Terminator 2 didn't get any above-the-line nominations.

That said, I did put it in the "contenders by studio" thread. Could be a solid tech player, especially as Dune: Part Deux dipped to 2024.

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Holdovers
Past Lives

Barbie at #6 for reasons pupdurcs stated. I feel like something could easily overthrow Past Lives at #5 (but it's not Barbie). 

If The Creator turns out to be critically acclaimed when most of the critics have had their say and it does better than expected box-office, do you think it can make the top 10 Best Picture slate along with being a contender for the tech categories? Especially since Dune 2 is 2024 now

It depends entirely on what 20th Century (as an aside, why haven't they updated?) wants to do with it. But I can't feature it getting any acting nominations because the field is looking insanely dense already, and for more palatable fare. Screenplay is possible, but Original is a tough nut to crack if Barbie stays there, and even if it doesn't I can see a couple of other players getting in over it.

And what is the worst thing for its chances is that most contenders this year have exceeded expectations, not underwhelmed. We're coming out of Venice/TIFF with more players than we expected, many of them from established filmmakers and strong studios. I think its ceiling are the techs, quite frankly, but if the passion is there, maybe it can leapfrog into one of the lower-tier BPs like District 9 (which also got the screenplay nod). But I think the year's so top-heavy as it is that to expect this to crack the top five is asking a bit much.

Some of you still have too much faith in Past Lives.

I'd have to hear actual reason for it to fall by the wayside. It's happened often enough for a film to get drowned out in awards conversations and then overperform once the season starts.

I'm not disagreeing that The Creator would need to overcome some major hurdles to get into the BP race, including doing decent box office. As for lack of buzz, this is definitely one of those films that needed it's cast to help promote it, as an original property. So the strikes aren't helping. If John David Washington, Gemma Chan, Ken Wantanabe, Benedict Wong, Allison Janney and Danny McBride  had been able to do a full on press tour, I'm sure that do the buzz would have been much higher. Still, maybe the hype of these early reactions will encourage word of mouth.

I think most of the concern regarding Past Lives has to do with its release date. I wouldn't count it out of any acting races and while The Zone of Interest got a ton of praise at Cannes (and I'm greatly looking forward to it), we will have to see if Jonathan Glazer made a film that is at all awards friendly.